In the "ideal", very unlikely but very much "hoped for" situation if everybody skates clean ( even counting with the recent " reputation points") the chances are:
1. Yu-Na Kim
2. Julia Lipnitskaya
3.Mao Asada ( if she succesfully goes to 2x 3 Axel, she will be 2nd).
2.Virtue/Moir (hate to say and hope to win with a fair PCS ponts judging)
3.Bobrova/Soloviev (also hate to say but in a different way...)
1.Voloshozar/Trankov (IF clean I remind you, but they are losing spaces).
3.Pang/Tong ( I still would LOVE to see them win, as the most beautifully skating Pairs nowdays...)
I would agree with everything, except for Kostner, Plushenko, Bazarova-Larionov, Capelinni-Lanotte. All these people have no chance even for bronze.
Also silver for Suzuki is hardly believable.
And please correct "Klimkin" to "Klimov".
Shots at gold- Kim, Asada, Lipnitskaia
Shots at as high as silver- Suzuki, Sotnikova
Shots at bronze- Kostner, Gold, Wagner, Murakami
Wild card for a medal: Li
Shots at gold- Hanyu, Chan, Fernandez
Shots at as high as silver- Takahashi, Machida (he's my darkhorse to win gold, if the others mess up, but realistically he'll get silver at tops)
Shots at bronze- Abbott, Plushenko, Ten (if any of them go clean in both programs, which I doubt they will)
Wild card for a medal: Brown
Shots at gold- Volosozhar & Trankov, Savchenko & Szolkowy
Shots at as high as silver- None; I think the top 2 spots will be a la Ice Dance (I could picture a perfect Canadian team spoiling for silver, but it's highly unlikely)
Shots at bronze- Pang & Tong, Duhamel & Radford, Moore-Towers & Moscovitch, Stolbova & Klimov (only with perfect skates on home ice)
Wild card for a medal: Bazarova & Larionov
Shots at gold- Virtue & Moir, Davis & White
Shots at as high as silver- Nobody else
Shots at bronze- Bobrova/Soloviev (who will have to really mess up to lose bronze), Pechalat & Bourzat, Capellini & Lanotte
Wild card for a medal: Weaver & Poje
I'm so excited
Ladies Favourites in order: Yuna Mao Julia, others in order: Caro, Adelina, Akiko, Grace, Kanako, Ash, Zijun, Kate
Men Favorites Cha cha chan, Yuzu, Javi Others> Tatsuki, dai, plushy, Jeremy, Jason,
Dance 1 & 2 Boring everybody knows Charles and Tessa, Battl for bronze probably Bobrova but I would like Nathalie
Pairs Boring everybodty knows 1 Trankov 2Aliona, 3 I hope pang I love miseraables
Yuna's is clearly better- I know you are a big Julia fan (duh, I'm a big Yuna fan) but imo, there is no comparison.
And whoever uploads those vids clearly has an agenda, using Yuna's imagine program for cheap political ploy (do we really want to get into which country has committed the most atrocities, hmm?)
Yes, Yuna's is clearly better, especially when your comparing in terms of the correct edge. What I was trying to see is if anyone agrees with me that Julia's while lacking the superior height and perhaps speed (we could argue forever about Yuna doing more crossovers vs. Julia doing slightly more transitional movement into it) is getting very close in terms of quality when you look back and compare it to the same combination that she showed only last year. She is definitely closing the gap. Obviously in just over a week, the question will academic as Yuna will be unquestionably one of the greatest skaters of all time while Julia is still only completing her first senior season.
On a different note I finally watched Yuna's programs from the Korean Nationals and I surprised myself by actually enjoying them. The first time I tried to watch the short program I just couldn't appreciate it. Perhaps because I've always heard Send In The Clowns with vocals and sometimes instrumental pieces just can't hold my attention if the instruments don't combine to make a melody that sounds like it's words even if their not there. This time I watched both programs a couple of times if she performs even close to this there's no way she won't win the gold medal. I'm still hoping the Julia will be able to produce two performances like European's and sneak in for the silver though. Sometimes I think I haven't been able to watch Yuna that often even though she clearly been the best particularly at 2010 Olympics is because her skating is too perfect, everything always looks too effortless. I know though, from skating myself for several year and getting to the point of landing double flips, that that is extremely hard. With these two program though, I've finally been able to enjoy watching her.
With Julia's skating while in Juniors even though there were clear imperfections the amount of talent and the way she just made me want to keep watching allowed me to feels more invested in her skating. Now with the two programs she's currently skating the rough edges are beginning to be smoothed away. Some people have said she doesn't (and there are as many different ways to say this as to do it) portray, interpret, skate to the music. To me doesn't project her portrayal of the music outward toward whoever watching so much as she feels the music, shown in her expressions at the beginning and end of the music and in the movement of her body and she pulls you in, feeling what she does. Maybe some of the ones who also feel the same way as me, it's because, like her, we are more introverted than extroverted. I can really ramble when I get started.
By the way, I'm not sure exactly what you meant by the second part of your message so I didn't address it.
Gold---Yuna Mao Akiko and Julia
a medal----Li, Gold, Caro
Gold---Chan, Hanyu, Javier
a medal---both other two Japanese skaters, Abbot
Gold V/T, S/S,
P/T as high as silver , could also off the podium
a medal; Canadians, P/Z if they do 4T and 4Th.
Gold D/W V/M
bronze: French or russian or Italian team
Gold and Silver between S squared and V and T
Silver spoiler - Pang and Tong
Bronze : Pang and Tong, K and S, both Canadians and the Italians
Gold - Hanyu, Daisuke, Chan, Fernandez
silver and Bronze: Machida, Abbott, Plushenko, Verner, Brezina
Long Shot for a medal : Joubert
Gold and Silver Davis and white v. Virtue and Moir
Bronze: P and b slight faves over B and S, C and L, I and K and Weaver andPoje
Silver and Bronze mao, Akiko, Carolina, Julia, Ashley, Gracie, Adelina, Murakami
this probably means a skater like Li or Osmond won't even make top ten. Hegellson can probably forget a top ten at the olympics.
Isabel, I actually did notice the double choctaw entry into Julia's combo, which is much harder than Yu Na's simple, but much more speedy, entry. However, it's undeniable that Yu Na's gets more height, ice coverage and flow, true lutz edge, and is the better combo.
You're living in a fantasy land if you think W/P will medal instead of B/S or another European team. And trust me, I'd like them to medal and think they deserve it... but at least I'm a realist and know, and always have known, that Russia is gunning for them to cling to bronze. It's as silly as those who think I/K would have had a shot this year, when their inconsistency and B/S' world medal clearly have continued to prop B/S as the top Russian team. Again, I disagree and prefer I/K, but you got to call a spade a spade.
Oh, I do indeed agree that C/L don't stand a chance against B/S. But they're pretty much W/P at this point. As in, a strong team that might deserve to be 3rd if they skate well but won't because B/S will be given bronze regardless... and if not them, then P/B.