Skaters with a shot at gold and a medal in each event

I just found a neat video on Youtube:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UMuf1MAPHko

What does everyone think of each 3Lutz-3Toe?

Yuna's is clearly better- I know you are a big Julia fan (duh, I'm a big Yuna fan) but imo, there is no comparison.
And whoever uploads those vids clearly has an agenda, using Yuna's imagine program for cheap political ploy (do we really want to get into which country has committed the most atrocities, hmm?)

Yes, Yuna's is clearly better, especially when your comparing in terms of the correct edge. What I was trying to see is if anyone agrees with me that Julia's while lacking the superior height and perhaps speed (we could argue forever about Yuna doing more crossovers vs. Julia doing slightly more transitional movement into it) is getting very close in terms of quality when you look back and compare it to the same combination that she showed only last year. She is definitely closing the gap. Obviously in just over a week, the question will academic as Yuna will be unquestionably one of the greatest skaters of all time while Julia is still only completing her first senior season.

On a different note I finally watched Yuna's programs from the Korean Nationals and I surprised myself by actually enjoying them. The first time I tried to watch the short program I just couldn't appreciate it. Perhaps because I've always heard Send In The Clowns with vocals and sometimes instrumental pieces just can't hold my attention if the instruments don't combine to make a melody that sounds like it's words even if their not there. This time I watched both programs a couple of times if she performs even close to this there's no way she won't win the gold medal. I'm still hoping the Julia will be able to produce two performances like European's and sneak in for the silver though. Sometimes I think I haven't been able to watch Yuna that often even though she clearly been the best particularly at 2010 Olympics is because her skating is too perfect, everything always looks too effortless. I know though, from skating myself for several year and getting to the point of landing double flips, that that is extremely hard. With these two program though, I've finally been able to enjoy watching her.

With Julia's skating while in Juniors even though there were clear imperfections the amount of talent and the way she just made me want to keep watching allowed me to feels more invested in her skating. Now with the two programs she's currently skating the rough edges are beginning to be smoothed away. Some people have said she doesn't (and there are as many different ways to say this as to do it) portray, interpret, skate to the music. To me doesn't project her portrayal of the music outward toward whoever watching so much as she feels the music, shown in her expressions at the beginning and end of the music and in the movement of her body and she pulls you in, feeling what she does. Maybe some of the ones who also feel the same way as me, it's because, like her, we are more introverted than extroverted. I can really ramble when I get started.

By the way, I'm not sure exactly what you meant by the second part of your message so I didn't address it.

Ladies:

Gold---Yuna Mao Akiko and Julia
a medal----Li, Gold, Caro

Men:
Gold---Chan, Hanyu, Javier
a medal---both other two Japanese skaters, Abbot

Pair:
Gold V/T, S/S,
P/T as high as silver , could also off the podium
a medal; Canadians, P/Z if they do 4T and 4Th.

Dance:
Gold D/W V/M
bronze: French or russian or Italian team

Pairs

Gold and Silver between S squared and V and T

Silver spoiler - Pang and Tong

Bronze : Pang and Tong, K and S, both Canadians and the Italians



MEN

Gold - Hanyu, Daisuke, Chan, Fernandez
silver and Bronze: Machida, Abbott, Plushenko, Verner, Brezina
Long Shot for a medal : Joubert



DANCE

Gold and Silver Davis and white v. Virtue and Moir

Bronze: P and b slight faves over B and S, C and L, I and K and Weaver andPoje


LADIES

Gold Yuna

Silver and Bronze mao, Akiko, Carolina, Julia, Ashley, Gracie, Adelina, Murakami

this probably means a skater like Li or Osmond won't even make top ten. Hegellson can probably forget a top ten at the olympics.

Isabel, I actually did notice the double choctaw entry into Julia's combo, which is much harder than Yu Na's simple, but much more speedy, entry. However, it's undeniable that Yu Na's gets more height, ice coverage and flow, true lutz edge, and is the better combo.

pangtongfan said:

I also think people are making a mistake in writing W&P off. If they can hit all their levels (a big if with them) they definitely have a shot.

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That's the thing - not only is it a big "if", but it's painfully obvious that B/S will be propped up with their PCS (particularly if they go clean). As I've said before, and continue to maintain, B/S (if they go clean) will win bronze. Heck, they've beaten W/P twice at the GPF and COR this season with falls and generally receive higher PCS.

You're living in a fantasy land if you think W/P will medal instead of B/S or another European team. And trust me, I'd like them to medal and think they deserve it... but at least I'm a realist and know, and always have known, that Russia is gunning for them to cling to bronze. It's as silly as those who think I/K would have had a shot this year, when their inconsistency and B/S' world medal clearly have continued to prop B/S as the top Russian team. Again, I disagree and prefer I/K, but you got to call a spade a spade.

pangtongfan said:

Julia should ditch the very hard entry into her triple lutz combo. The judges dont credit those unlike it is a very high quality jump, and she has enough issues with a perennial flutz and getting enough height or speed to do that combination really well.

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I agree, but really, the hard entry is the combo's only redeeming factor given the poor height and flow and expected flutz. I doubt she'd perform the jump much better without the transitions.

CanadianSkaterGuy said:

Ladies:

Shots at gold- Kim, Asada, Lipnitskaia
Shots at as high as silver- Suzuki, Sotnikova
Shots at bronze- Kostner, Gold, Wagner, Murakami
Wild card for a medal: Li

Men:

Shots at gold- Hanyu, Chan, Fernandez
Shots at as high as silver- Takahashi, Machida (he's my darkhorse to win gold, if the others mess up, but realistically he'll get silver at tops)
Shots at bronze- Abbott, Plushenko, Ten (if any of them go clean in both programs, which I doubt they will)
Wild card for a medal: Brown

Pairs:

Shots at gold- Volosozhar & Trankov, Savchenko & Szolkowy
Shots at as high as silver- None; I think the top 2 spots will be a la Ice Dance (I could picture a perfect Canadian team spoiling for silver, but it's highly unlikely)
Shots at bronze- Pang & Tong, Duhamel & Radford, Moore-Towers & Moscovitch, Stolbova & Klimov (only with perfect skates on home ice)
Wild card for a medal: Bazarova & Larionov

Dance:

Shots at gold- Virtue & Moir, Davis & White
Shots at as high as silver- Nobody else
Shots at bronze- Bobrova/Soloviev (who will have to really mess up to lose bronze), Pechalat & Bourzat, Capellini & Lanotte
Wild card for a medal: Weaver & Poje

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I love your picks especially your wild cards.

Oh, I do indeed agree that C/L don't stand a chance against B/S. But they're pretty much W/P at this point. As in, a strong team that might deserve to be 3rd if they skate well but won't because B/S will be given bronze regardless... and if not them, then P/B.

pangtongfan said:

I have no idea why people see C&L as having a real medal shot. They needed I&K to bomb the FS basically to barely win Europeans, and were dead last including a distant last in PCS at the Grand Prix final. At this point I would give all of B&S, P&B, W&P, and I&K (for sure, especialy in Russia) stronger medal chances than them, which equates to theirs being virtually nothing. I also think people are making a mistake in writing W&P off. If they can hit all their levels (a big if with them) they definitely have a shot.

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I think C&L and W&P both have a slight chance, but not much. Same with I&K. It'll really be between B&S and P&B. I think both of these teams may have to fall, or at least have mistakes on the twizzles, to lose 3rd/4th place (in whatever order).. although that could very well happen, given that Fabian has fallen a few times before, and Dmitri fell already this season.

pangtongfan said:

I actually think B&S going back to their last years FD is good news for the other contenders and helps a team like W&P to have more shot at the bronze. As rubbish as their FD was this year, the judges were giving it good scores, and this is too late to make a change like this. I wouldnt be surprised if we dont see them skate well at the Games, and it being hard for the judges to hold them up this time.

P&B are the real favorites for the bronze at this point, not B&S. They have beaten B&S handily both times they met this season. Unless P&B run into problems I think they will get the bronze, even in Russia, but they are prone to mistakes and I wouldnt be at all surprised if they make them; and if they do I could see W&P capatilizing just as easily as a struggling B&S. W&P just need to improve their OD where they have lost ground all year, and make sure they hit their levels in both programs as that is where they are inconsistent. They will get PCS comparable to B&S and P&B and they are capable of very high GOE points. If they skate closer together and with more speed the PCS in their OD which hasnt been stacking up as well as the PCS in their FD this year, will improve.

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You don't hear too often teams going back to their old programs for dance. What will be the reaction from the judges? I am shocked -they should have been able to do something wih 4 seasons - the concept was interesting but they didn't pull it together. This soundsl ike panic and if I and K could get it ttogethter they could over take B and S instead P an B will go between them and probably win bronze or maybe thejudges will allow W and P a bronze if V and M don't win gold? I know not very logical.

pangtongfan said:

I actually think B&S going back to their last years FD is good news for the other contenders and helps a team like W&P to have more shot at the bronze. As rubbish as their FD was this year, the judges were giving it good scores, and this is too late to make a change like this. I wouldnt be surprised if we dont see them skate well at the Games, and it being hard for the judges to hold them up this time.

P&B are the real favorites for the bronze at this point, not B&S. They have beaten B&S handily both times they met this season. Unless P&B run into problems I think they will get the bronze, even in Russia, but they are prone to mistakes and I wouldnt be at all surprised if they make them; and if they do I could see W&P capatilizing just as easily as a struggling B&S. W&P just need to improve their OD where they have lost ground all year, and make sure they hit their levels in both programs as that is where they are inconsistent. They will get PCS comparable to B&S and P&B and they are capable of very high GOE points. If they skate closer together and with more speed the PCS in their OD which hasnt been stacking up as well as the PCS in their FD this year, will improve.

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The only time W&P have outscored B&S was in the FD at the GPF when B&S fell, and even then it was essentially tied. Otherwise B&S have easily outscored W&P. With a fall at COR, B/S still got higher PCS than W/P.

B&S as Olympic medalists is just wrong. You know the fix has to be in for that to happen.

Ven said:

She actually has 4th best odds to win OGM. I don't see it though, even if she skates her best I think she scores in 190s. Will that be good enough to medal? Probably not, but I suppose I should have put her with Gold and Wagner, because they won't break 200 either. Murakami probably has a chance at Bronze, like they do, if she skates clean and others make mistakes.

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Gold can score 70+ with a clean SP. She did a 69+ with her Three Preludes and I'm pretty sure her new SP would pull a higher PCS total than the old one if skated cleanly.

She should have no issues scoring 200+ with two hit programs, and I don't see Murakami beating a clean Gracie Gold. Her skating is too sloppy and she is a weaker jumper and spinner, and the quality of her skating is not much superior, if at all (when you factor in her posture and poorer extension, among other things)...

pangtongfan said:

No way that a truly clean Asada would finish behind Julia with the jumps she is planning. People are debating whether a clean Asada would even win over a clean Kim since her planned base value is like 10 points higher. However Asada is not even capable of skating her current planned program cleanly. So if what you meant is if Julia skates cleanly and Mao skates as cleanly as she can possibly do (which is probably equal to her best performance this season so far, whichever you thought that was, maybe NHK), then yes Julia might come out ahead in Russia.

A clean Sotnikova (which there is a very small chance of happening) might come out ahead of both for the silver in that case though. The protocals show she would have won Europeans over Julia had she done a clean long with the triple lutz-triple loop she had planned, and she won Nationals over Julia with both being only one mistake from a perfect competition (Julia in the short, Adelina in the long). The Europeans is more crucial though as some suggest Russian Nationals is biased to Sotnikova, but even Europeans indicated Adelina having the edge had she gone clean.

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Sotnikova does have an edge if she goes clean, because she can rack up more +GOE on the jumps, still has strong spins, and tends to have an edge in PCS. Julia is getting +GOE for elements (like her DA) that really shouldn't even be getting GOE from the judges (Negative GOE, if any).

Isabel_O'Reilly said:

I just found a neat video on Youtube:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UMuf1MAPHko

What does everyone think of each 3Lutz-3Toe?

Click to expand...

Yuna's is bigger. Technique on the second jump not as good. She tends to UR quite a bit these days (will be interesting to see if they call her on it in Sochi, both of hers at KOR Nationals were < ) because she takes off way too early on the toe loop, causing it to require more rotation than it should need to get around.

Julia has a Flutz 65% of the time, but it's not severe. Her jumps are a lot more controlled than Yuna Kim's.

If I had to pick, I'd pick Lipnitskaya's. Yuna's combo has two redeeming aspects: Size and the Take-Off Edge on the Lutz.

However, Lipnitskaya's jumps are incredible because of the amount of control she has on her landings, the fact that she lands going straight backwards (not even a chance to question her rotation), and the position she can get on her landings - and she HOLDS those landing positions a lot better than Kim. Additionally, her technique on the back half of her combination is textbook, which is why she can throw a toe loop onto almost anything (or add it back in later, easily, if she misses it early on like at Europeans).

From a GOE standpoint, Yuna's would score higher as long as the judge didn't spot a UR when it happens because the take-off issues on her 3T back end aren't anything most judges would penalize as long as the jump was clean.

Sotnikova is a better overall jump than both of them, and has all triples. She has Yuna's size and Lipnitskaya's rotation and landing finesse.

Kim skates like a woman; Julia skates like a teenager. Kim has power and the right edge; mind you Julia has a more difficult entry and maybe thejudges should mark down Kim or woheover for the second triple. But there is no question Kim will win gold and julia is lucky if she wins a bronze. I think the odds are favouring Kostner for bronze - she usually ahs one good skate so olympics is her chance to reign. Still I Mao is ahuge question; I honestly don't see it happening though she has too many problems with her jumps and at this point it would be a bit of luck. I know she tried but with her problems with the lutz, triple axel, adding loops it would be a bit of one shot wonder if she corrected it all. Yes, a lot of skaters or most have achilles heal problems - one or two jumps but mao has been trying to fix them for years and has not been consistently clean with the big jumps lutz or axel or adding loops. At this point she is best to move on as it seems doubtful she will become consistent at this point.

Nater said:

Yuna's is bigger. Technique on the second jump not as good. She tends to UR quite a bit these days (will be interesting to see if they call her on it in Sochi, both of hers at KOR Nationals were < ) because she takes off way too early on the toe loop, causing it to require more rotation than it should need to get around.

Julia has a Flutz 65% of the time, but it's not severe. Her jumps are a lot more controlled than Yuna Kim's.

If I had to pick, I'd pick Lipnitskaya's. Yuna's combo has two redeeming aspects: Size and the Take-Off Edge on the Lutz.

However, Lipnitskaya's jumps are incredible because of the amount of control she has on her landings, the fact that she lands going straight backwards (not even a chance to question her rotation), and the position she can get on her landings - and she HOLDS those landing positions a lot better than Kim. Additionally, her technique on the back half of her combination is textbook, which is why she can throw a toe loop onto almost anything (or add it back in later, easily, if she misses it early on like at Europeans).

From a GOE standpoint, Yuna's would score higher as long as the judge didn't spot a UR when it happens because the take-off issues on her 3T back end aren't anything most judges would penalize as long as the jump was clean.

Sotnikova is a better overall jump than both of them, and has all triples. She has Yuna's size and Lipnitskaya's rotation and landing finesse.

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I appreciate your analysis, critiquing each one fairly, instead of simply saying one is better. I get tired of people just saying straight out that one skater is better than one another. There is so much to marvel at with each skater and while some of it you can straight out compare objectively, much more of skating is ultimately subjective to each person watching it. That's why I never say Julia is the the best skater or say that any other skater is not as good because, while objectively I know that's not true, subjectively she will always be the best to me. Primarily because intellectually the technical arsenal she has is extraordinary and the interpretation or emotional response she draws from me is incredible.

A competition should be judged solely on what the skater achieves on that skate alone, not what they have done before. It is the judges job to take the program and reduce it to mere numbers, but of course there is little bit of room for their personal opinion in GOE and in program components. Having the numbers of judges they do from all different countries results in a fair range of numbers for each skater, I would hope.

Nater said:

Sotnikova is a better overall jump than both of them, and has all triples. She has Yuna's size and Lipnitskaya's rotation and landing finesse.

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Although Adelina is my very favorite skater, I have to say that I disagree that her landing finesse is better than Yuna's. She does jump well in her short and the first half of her long, but when she gets tired late in her LP she has a wide swinging free leg and it makes the landing shaky.