Olympic Standings If Everyone Skates Their Very Best?

CanadianSkaterGuy · Jan 30, 2014

I think at this point we know what most skaters are planning in their Olympic programs.

So if all skaters go clean with their technical content in both programs - yes, that means Mao landing her triple axels, Sotnikova doing her 3-3, Hanyu/Fernandez doing all his quads, and S/S doing the throw 3A and ice dancers hitting all their levels, etc.... what do you think the standings will be in Sochi?

Men
1. Hanyu
2. Chan
3. Fernandez

Ladies
1. Kim
2. Asada
3. Sotnikova (I'd pick Suzuki if it weren't in Russia)

Pairs
1. V/T
2. S/S
3. D/R

Ice Dance
1. D/W
2. V/M
3. B/S (I'd pick P/B if it weren't in Russia)

drivingmissdaisy · Jan 30, 2014

If everyone's clean I don't think Julia would beat Adelina, Gracie, Ashley or Akiko because of the GOE they get on their jump passes. Where do you think a clean Adelina would lose points to Julia if both do 7 triple longs?

CanadianSkaterGuy · Jan 30, 2014

drivingmissdaisy said:
If everyone's clean I don't think Julia would beat Adelina, Gracie, Ashley or Akiko because of the GOE they get on their jump passes. Where do you think a clean Adelina would lose points to Julia if both do 7 triple longs?

Sorry, I was editing it after I realised Sotnikova would beat Julia with a clean 3-3 and clean program... those are my final ones.

Skater Boy · Jan 30, 2014

CanadianSkaterGuy said:
I think at this point we know what most skaters are planning in their Olympic programs.

So if all skaters go clean with their technical content in both programs - yes, that means Mao landing her triple axels, Sotnikova doing her 3-3, Hanyu/Fernandez doing all his quads, and S/S doing the throw 3A and ice dancers hitting all their levels, etc.... what do you think the standings will be in Sochi?

Men
1. Hanyu
2. Chan
3. Fernandez

Ladies
1. Kim
2. Asada
3. Sotnikova (I'd pick Suzuki if it weren't in Russia)

Pairs
1. V/T
2. S/S
3. D/R

Ice Dance
1. D/W
2. V/M
3. B/S (I'd pick P/B if it weren't in Russia)

I agree but I am not sure about Hanyu's pcs. They really should be below significantly even at his best Dai and Chan. But I think Hanyu will win anyways; Chan has not skated consistently and Hanyu has the momentum and the j udges are willing to give him the pcs though I think he should be dilineated further down the list than Dai or Chan or a good Abbott.

drivingmissdaisy · Jan 30, 2014

What scares me about Hanyu is that some of his jump entrances are so difficult that I am not confident he can land them under Olympic pressure. If he does he could win and it will be well deserved.

FSGMT · Jan 30, 2014

For me, it would be:
1) Hanyu
2) Chan
3) Kovtun (don't forget the two-quads SP and that there is a 4-3 planned in his FS, which he rarely executes)

1) Kim
2) Asada (close)
3) Kostner (higher PCS than Sotnikova)

1) V/T
2) S/S
3) D/R (if they somehow hit that 3S+2T+2T in the second half their score could go sky-high)

1) D/W
2) V/M
3) B/S (or maybe even I/K)

CanadianSkaterGuy · Jan 30, 2014

FSGMT said:
3) Kovtun (don't forget the two-quads SP and that there is a 4-3 planned in his FS, which he rarely executes)

But Kovtun's not competing in the... oh wait... I see.

CanadianSkaterGuy · Jan 30, 2014

Skater Boy said:
I agree but I am not sure about Hanyu's pcs. They really should be below significantly even at his best Dai and Chan. But I think Hanyu will win anyways; Chan has not skated consistently and Hanyu has the momentum and the j udges are willing to give him the pcs though I think he should be dilineated further down the list than Dai or Chan or a good Abbott.

By very best I mean Hanyu landing his 4S. I know it hasn't happened in the past 4 outings (3 falls and a double), but this is hypothetically with perfect skates and considering skaters would get the GOE they normally get for their jumps and such. Chan will score higher PCS, but I think Hanyu's technical if he skated perfectly (which he has yet to do) would put him ahead of Chan (although slightly, I'd imagine).

FSGMT · Jan 30, 2014

CanadianSkaterGuy said:
But Kovtun's not competing in the... oh wait... I see.

No, my mistake :bang:

I don't know why, but I just included him in my predictions :slink:

(but maybe, who knows, Plushy will "be to injuried to compete" when he realizes that all the other skaters are landing clean program with 2/3 quads...)
Anyway, this is my "official" post for Men:
1) Hanyu
2) Chan
3) Takahashi/Plushenko

CanadianSkaterGuy · Jan 30, 2014

FSGMT said:
No, my mistake I don't know why, but I just included him in my predictions (but maybe, who knows, Plushy will "be too injured to compete" when he realizes that all the other skaters are landing clean program with 2/3 quads...)

That's what I was referring to.

Might as well get the easy medal, and go out on top.

noskates · Jan 30, 2014

Honestly? I don't think either Kostner or Takahashi will medal. But I had to LOL at CanadianSkaterGuy's "oh wait..I see!" with the comment about Kovtun. Snicker. Snicker. As for Chan and Hanyu or anybody else - who knows. It's going to be exciting though.

Everybody has all but handed over the OGM to Kim. I still think anything can happen there. But seeing her skate a perfect program would be wonderful.

Li'Kitsu · Jan 30, 2014

Men:

Chan and Hanyu would get gold and silver with probably a huge margin over everyone else. But I'd imagine their marks to be pretty close. Funny thing, despite Hanyu having the SP world record, and Chan the LP one, I think Chan would win the SP and Hanyu the LP. It's tough to say overall, but I'd still go with Chan.
For bronze, it would be Takahashis PC vs. Fernandez quads. With last years programs, I'd give the edge to Fernandez, but this season, I'm not so sure. If Takahashi lands both his quads, he'd be 3rd I think. The potential spoiler would be a clean Abbott, since I'm not really sure how high he'd score. So:

1. Chan
2. Hanyu
3. Takahashi

Ladies:

If Asada returns to her 8 triple LP, then I think she should take the gold in this scenario (and maybe with the 2 3As too). She should be able to stay close to Yuna in the SP at least too - she has about a 2 point BV advantage to rival Yunas jump GOE and she'd get slighty more points for her spins.
Third would go to Sotnikova. She already beat Kostner in the SP at Europeans when both were clean and they had nearly the same jump layout - how would Kostner beat Sotnikova with a clean 3Lz3Lo + 2A3T? I'd personally pick Suzuki for who should win the bronze, but with the way she's judged internationally I don't see that happening.

1. Asada
2. Kim
3. Sotnikova

Pairs:

1. V/T
2. S/S
3. D/R

Though I'd personally have P/T over D/R, despite their higher difficulty. I saw them live at TEB back to back, and IMO, D/R aren't on the same level as P/T just as skaters.

Ice Dance:

1. D/W
2. V/M
3. I/K

That bronze pick feels weird. But since CoR I guess it's a good guess that a russian dance team will get bronze if possible, and I really don't want to have B/S anywhere on that podium :slink:

(Usually, bronze should go to P/B or maybe W/P - although that's fooling myself again, cause W/P are always underscored...)

zamboni step · Jan 30, 2014

Men
1. Chan
2. Takahashi
3. Hanyu

Ladies
1. Mao
2. Kim
3. Sotnikova
4. Carolina
5. Julia
6. Akiko
7. Gracie
8. Kanako
9. Ashley
10. Kaetlyn
11. Li

desertskates · Jan 30, 2014

Everyone clean? Hmm, that'd be a skating fan's dream.
Men: Hanyu, Chan, Plushy (they've got to sneak him on there).
Ladies: Yuna, Mao, Julia, Adelina, Carolina, Akiko, Ashley, Kanako, Gracie, Kaetlyn.
But I have an odd feeling there will be some oddball podium shake-up that we don't see coming. We'll see soon!

kwanatic · Jan 30, 2014

I agree about the men (Hanyu, Chan, Plushenko)

I think it'd be a toss up between Mao and Yu-Na for who comes out first. Mao's higher base value would give her an advantage but Yu-Na's higher GOE could make up that ground. I think it would go to whoever "brought the house down" in that scenario. Given that Mao's never skated 100% cleanly, I feel like the judges would give her the nod for pulling off that kind of difficulty under that much pressure (especially if we're talking about the 8-triple program). As for 3rd, I think it'd go to Adelina or Carolina. If Carolina can perform Bolero cleanly (assuming she sticks with her layout from worlds last year w/ the 3F-3T), I think she'd have enough electricity in the building to pull the kind of marks she'd need to get slightly ahead of Adelina...it would be extremely close though.

CanadianSkaterGuy · Jan 30, 2014

I would hope that if Fernandez going clean with 3 quads would defeat a clean Plushenko with 2 quads. Same with a clean Takahashi with 2 quads. Both Fernandez/Takahashi have much more intricate/better choreographed programs (heck, at least half of the field, for that matter).

I sense a lot of funny placements with it being in Russia, and shenanigans seen at Cup of Russia and the like. I was tempted to put Plushenko as 3rd if he went clean, but think Fernandez's technical ability will put him ahead (I would also put Takahashi 4th with 2 quads).

elif · Jan 30, 2014

Dance:
1. Davis/White
2. Virtue/Moir
3. Ilinykh/Katsalapov

Ladies:
1.Kim
2.Asada
3.Sotnikova

Pairs:
1.Volosozhar/Trankov
2.Savchenko/Szolkowy
3.Pang/Tong

drivingmissdaisy · Jan 30, 2014

Li'Kitsu said:
If Asada returns to her 8 triple LP, then I think she should take the gold in this scenario (and maybe with the 2 3As too).

How is Mao planning to get to 8?
1) 3A
2) 3A-2T
3) 2A-3T
4) 3F-2-2
5) 3Z
6) 3R
7) 3S

That's 7 passes and 7 triples. Is she planning to do a 3F-3R as well?

Robeye · Jan 30, 2014

drivingmissdaisy said:
How is Mao planning to get to 8?
1) 3A
2) 3A-2T
3) 2A-3T
4) 3F-2-2
5) 3Z
6) 3R
7) 3S

That's 7 passes and 7 triples. Is she planning to do a 3F-3R as well?

She could replace the 2a-3t with a 3f-3t.

kwanatic · Jan 30, 2014

drivingmissdaisy said:
That's 7 passes and 7 triples. Is she planning to do a 3F-3R as well?

Originally, that was the plan. The first time she went for the 8 triples it was supposed to be

1) 3A
2) 3F-3L
3) 3Lz
4) 2A-3T
5) 3S
6) 3F-2L-2L
7) 3L

I believe that was the layout...:think: If by some miracle she got through all of that cleanly, I can't see her not winning.

Olympic Standings If Everyone Skates Their Very Best?

CanadianSkaterGuy

drivingmissdaisy

CanadianSkaterGuy

Skater Boy

drivingmissdaisy

FSGMT

CanadianSkaterGuy

CanadianSkaterGuy

FSGMT

CanadianSkaterGuy

noskates

Li'Kitsu

zamboni step

desertskates

kwanatic

Check out my YT channel, Bare Ice!

CanadianSkaterGuy

elif

drivingmissdaisy

Robeye

kwanatic

Check out my YT channel, Bare Ice!

Similar threads

Connect with us