The Big Surprise at Worlds

We all know about Plush and Brian, and Kwan and Cohen but what about some surprise happening?

Men = Can any of these guys get gold?: Klimkin, Lambiel, Weir, Weiss, Griazev?

Ladies - What about these gals?: Arakawa, Suguri, Liashenko, Sebastyen, Kostner, Sokolova?

Pairs - We know the two top but what about for a surprise?: Zhang/Zhang, langois/Archetto, Pong/Tang, Obertas/Sokolov, Innoue/Baldwin.,

Dance - Forget N/T and D/S, and is gold possible for?: Belbin/Agosto, Delobel/Schoenfeld, Chait/Sakhnovski, Wing/Lowe.
Gregory/Petukhov.

By next week at this time, we will know it all. Are there any surprises?

Joe

I doubt there will be any surprises but if there is one I would think it might be Johnny Weir. He'll land the quad but mess up his triple axel. Everything else will be fine and he wins over too many errors from the others.

Joe

A lot of people seem to be counting Elena Sokolova out but I think she's got a really good chance to win Gold. She has a snappish short program and can sell it well. She is in much better shape and she landed 2 3/3's at Euro's and is landing a 3loop/3loop at well. I think she'll go all out, no pressures, just skate and attack.

She's using her old program as well so that makes two years of skating it under her belt, so it's like old shoes - comfortable as all get out!

Joesitz....how about Sandhu for gold? I don't think it's likely, but I think it more likely than Weir or Griazev, who for what we know don't have quads yet. Ya gotta admit, it would be a BIG surprise!

Kasey

Kasey - I like Sandhu very much but he makes me nervous when he skates. He's got so much talent and imo, doesn't know how to handle it. If he wins gold, it will be a BIG but pleasant surprise.

What I like about Johnny this year, while watching him skate at US Nats was that he was so focused. Halfway through the program, I didn't feel nervous for him. I just said you're going to have a clean skate. He did. Sof if the practice quad goes into the competition, I would imagine him putting the right focus on it.

Joe

I think Plushenko has the gold and I REALLY doubt he'll lose it. But if he has problems... what about Joubert for gold? With a Euros-like skate and the others faltering, he can perfectly win. He's more consistent than many of the other men and he does have the big jumps, which is enough to give him a large advantage. I don't think he will, though. (win Worlds) Same goes for Sandhu. He's got it all and I think he's the only skater that doesn't need a Plushenko meltdown to beat him (just needs him to leave the door a tiny bit open). One day he's gonna put it all together, who knows if it's this sesson. Same goes for Klimkin. He's got the total package too and two quads in his program. Clean programs and he can win. He could have won Euros this season. The other men, as much as they skate well, I definitely don't see them winning. (I haven't seen Weir, though)

Ladies, I think Miki Ando or Shizuka Arakawa, if they skate perfect, they can win. I don't see Sokolova winning even with two 3/3 and mistakes from others.

Pairs, no surprises LOL Although P/T's LP this season is very, very good and if they sell it the same way they did at Euros, they can have a shot for silver IMO. The other Chinese pairs (besides S/Z)are great technically, but have so much to work on in presentation it will leave them behind the Russians.

Dance doesn't go with "surprise" LOL It's N/K or D/S, no one else.

The one I'm really interested to watch is Weir. I'm not completely convinced yet that he's rid himself of the nerves (I hope he has).
He could really make some waves if he holds it together.

For the ladies, I agree about Sokolova. She looks like a totally different skater than the one we saw earlier in the season. I'm also anxious to see what Ando and Kostner will do. With reports that Michelle and Sasha are likely to not do 3/3's ... Ando especially could take advantage of this.
Should be quite an event!!!

I don't think its even remotely possible for Weir and Belbin and Agusto to win this year, unless like 85% of the competitoin drops out. Don't get me wrong, Weir is one of my favorite skaters out there and I have nothing against B/A, but in reality, this is the first national title for both and johnn'y first trip to worlds. Theres no way they can overcome Plushenco, Navka/Kostomorov, etc as far a technical ability. Both are very young, and internationally inexperencied. Give B/A maybe another two years, and they could do it, Johnny who knows....
Will be interesting to see if Kostner breaks in to the top ten, and I'd be happy to see Gregory and Petchokov there as well.
Laura

I have to disagree with you, Joe...we don't really all know about Sasha; well, not really disagree, as I know what you mean, she and MK are the biggest names and heavy favorites (at least MK is)...but I'd have to go with Robin Wagner's Sasha Cohen; after three months of practicing and a drastic departure from her coaching situation with TT, I'm dying to see what all the great stuff that Sasha has been gushing about on her website--we're doing this and that and the other thing with Robin--I'm excited to see where this coaching change will take an already very talented and reasonably accomplished (consistency in figure skating is hard for anyone to achieve; MK's consistency is a wonderful aberration as far as the field of elite skaters is concerned as well as a testament to her abilities, of which consistency has been key in establishing her legacy, a trademark she has owned for years, barring the two Oly games, of course) skater...it feels like an experiment; we've all been used to seeing Sasha perform well and meltdown at times, but I really think Robin is doing her work from the inside (the mind) out, refining and crafting a work of art...the product of all that work will be the surprise (or letdown) of the competition, and I'm majorly psyched to see it. I feel we're going to see a new skater, which I think justifies this post under the "surprise" thread

Sarah

Sarah - I think I'm being misunderstood and I take blame for that. This thread is not about predictions We have plenty of them in the Worlds folder elsewhere.

What i am looking for is a hypothetical surprise gold medalist. It is not unusual in big competitions that someone comes out of the woodwork to take away the gold from the more obvious choices.

In this connection, if Sasha, MK, Plush, Joubert, S&Z, T&M, N&K, D&S do not win, who is the surprise winner? I doubt if these favorites would be beaten in their respective disciplines but it could happen that in one discipline, the obvious favorites would not. Just thinking - not serious.

In other words, it's not Sasha and MK that I am talking about. Will Julia Sebastyen be a surprise winner? You don't have to answer that, in fact you can skip over the Ladies event, and certainly the whole post if you don't think any of the favorites will be beaten.

Cheers - Joe

I think it can happen that one skater will land unexpected on the podium, but only one of the established skaters will win.
Ladies: not only Kwan and Cohen are candidates for gold, also Sokolova and Suguri ( 2002+2003 3. worlds, 1. GPF - she proved that she is good)are good enough if they are able to put it together. That would not be a big surprise for me.
A big surprise that would be gold for Kostner (I would like to see that) but..... I doubt.
In the dance competition there will never happen a big surprise. That´s impossible.
Alina

If the favorites don't win (which it would give me a great good surprise except in the men event that I would be devastated) I think the skaters than can give that surprise are

men: Klimkin, Lambiel and Sandhu. Klimkin finally at Euros showed more consistency than any other of his past performances, he has IMO a wonderful SP and FP, very original and unique (I know he has Swan Lake but it's very "Klimkin" the way he performs it) and his programs, done cleanly, have a difficult technical content. I don't like Sandhu but as well as Klimkin this year it's been quite good for him, one of the things that that I don't like so much is how he lands his jumps, I mean his landings does not seem secure to me, but I have to admit that I have only seen his FP from GPF so maybe that day it was like that. I wouldn't have voted for Lambiel after the season he had, but I read a report that he is now better and that his quad and triple axels are back, his programs are just amazing.

pairs & dance: chances of a surprise are very slim,, if not impossible, but Petrova and Tikhonov with their "Princess of Circus" can make it, as for dance I really don't know that much to make an opinion.

ladies: Fumie, Elena or Irina (well that last one is more wishful thinking that actually a possibility) Elena is very strong technically but in the artistic department IMO she is not there yet, but it could be. As for Fumie, she has two wonderful programs (especially her SP), she has the presentation and she has the technique.

I agree with those who mentioned Elena Sokolova. If she comes in with two solid triple-triples the judges won't be able to ignore her. (One judge last year gave her the first place ordinal over a great performance by Michelle.)

As for her presentation, she is a beutiful lady with several beautifully done elements. What she needs to work on, in my opinion, is tying it all together in terms of flow from one element to the next.

If Elena contends for the gold, or even reaches the podium, she will deserve the "comeback of the year award," just like last year. She overcame injury, surgery, and an early schedule that was way too ambitious, doing the Grand Prix and a number of fluff competitions while hurt. Go Elena!

Mathman

oops

Joe, I see your point, and actually felt kind of foolish after reading your response to my post, but I guess I responded because Sasha, favorite and all, would surprise the heck out of me if she actually won, probably as much as any "real" dark horse...I refer to a post by Ogre Mage in the worlds folder, in response to a thread started by you with three questions--question in bold:

Can you imagine a surprise first place finish? Who?
Sasha is the obvious choice, but I have doubts about her ability to skate clean through all three phases of the competition. If by some chance she can, her program this year is better than Michelle's. If Arakawa can peak at Worlds, she could be a definite dark horse. She's improved in a MAJOR way. I think Fumie will be on the podium, but I only see her winning if the others bomb.

Click to expand...

So that's sort of what I meant by my post, at the risk of veering off topic. However, since I'm most interested in the Ladies event and wouldn't skip over it for the world --the excitement, the drama--I will conclude by staying on topic and for that I'd have to go with Cupcake--I love Julia Sebestyen's jumps and flow (my other pick for this category), but as someone already said, Elena does sell the heck out of a program (I don't get that from Julia), seems to be peaking right on schedule and is just warmed up enough but not overworked, has something left to prove after poor performances this year, and I think all that's extremely important. Sure, SLC 2002 was the ultimate pressure-packed situation, but I don't see Elena wilting beneath similar pressure of being in the final group at these worlds as Julia did at the olympics. Sorry if that's a poor comparison, but it's all I can think of when talking about either lady outgunning the top guns on a big stage. For some reason, I think the bar will be raised at this Worlds and that the title will be hotly contested, with great performances (premonition or wishful thinking, I know not), so I can see Sokolova skating off with the whole thing as she has come close to doing in the past--she's hungry and she's dueled with the very best in recent years and proven she's no slouch.

Now comes the tricky part of waiting two more weeks

Sarah

Sara - Elena S seems to be the one to upset the apple cart but to dethrone MK and prevent SC from the title, I would go with Shizuka. However, the Ladies event is jam packed with excellent skaters. I don't think MK is a favorite - no one is, imo.

Also I see the Men's event as the most possible for an upset for me, I see Ilia Klimkin sneaking in there for the gold or Johnny Weir depending on how well both of them skate.

We'll soon see all of this.

Joe

Hi All !

I am confused.....surprise place archetto and langlois????
...Buntin and Marcoux are the canadian champs and skated like champs...then Buntin and Marcoux beat Archetto and Langlois at 4 continents again hands down...If any one deserves to be in the surprise spot shouldn`t it be them ?

Anyway just my 2 cents!

Take care!

Well if someone is going to beat my girl Michelle I'd want it to be Fumie. I think she has a good chance too.

for dance, I don't really see any surprises coming up...no matter how hard they try, the biggest surprise this cathegory can come up with, is A&P winning the bronze in Nagano....at this point, I don't see anyone unexpected grabbing the gold away from the top couples, they'll have to fall like fifteen times each, and Navka needs to be tangled up in her hair and Maxim must sleep over and forget to show up...


for men, I'll say it's a chance Ilia could pull it off.....though it doesn't look like the judges'll give it to him...in Budapest he skated the best short program, but was still third....but it others make mistakes, it might happen *I wish, I wish, I wish*
I doubt Griazev or Weir are good enough for gold, Graizev is adorable, but he's young, and quite immature..I think he needs some more year...
amazing emmanuel did have a great season, and if he skates three clean programs he could be in for the gold...but I do think other must make mistakes here as well....
If so, and Stephane Lambiel skates clean...he might win the whole thing since when he's on, he's really on fire, too bad he has to skate three programs....
If someone else bums, then Frederic Dambier can save Europe's honour and become world champion also, his quad is very consistent...and overall he's very consistent this season also...

in ladies, it's hard for me to find out who'll be the surprise, and who's already a favorite...but maybe Miki Ando...like Oksana Baiul came in 93, like so tiny, and beat everybody!!
I say both Fumie, Arakawa, Michelle, Sokolova and Sasha are too good to be called surprises, maybe CArolina is...but we all know what she's capable off....sigh*

in pairs, it's hard to say for me, since I haven't seen any of the north americans this season, except from those canadians that were at CoR...(can't remember their name, but they were good!!)
....from Europe, I don't see anyone surprising that is capable of winning, competing with the chinese, the level is just not that high now....I mean...really, win worlds....maybe Obertas & Slavnov...they have some good elements...but I also find them a bit unfinished yet..

In dance, while I agree that silver and gold is pretty much pre-determined, both C&S and B&A have a chance to medal -- that would qualify as a surprise.

Likewise in pairs, I think a "surprise" can come in form of bronze by not going to either Pa&To, Pe&Ti, or Z&Z -- like may be to L&A.

In men, Plushy's losses at Euros and GPF notwithstanding, ANYONE else getting gold will be a surprise. Brian is an obvious choice, perhaps too obvious. Lambiel? Klimkin? We shall see.

yes,and how many mistakes plushy made for brian to win with a perfect skate that tell you how difficult it is to beat plushy. noone can touch a clean evgeny.