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Thread: Lipnitskaya vs Kim: What will happen in the individual competition?

  1. #136
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    Quote Originally Posted by yuki90 View Post
    you dont even know ISU rule about pre rotation.we'll see when Julia has body change.Im sure Julia and Zhang's mechanism is quite similar.
    and you know what? go Youtube and watch Mao's 2005 GPF when she was 15, she didnt pre-rotate her jumps almost 270 degree and her jumps were much higher, light, beautiful and wayyyyyyy better than Julia's jumps.
    How does someone pre-rotate their jumps 270 degrees? I know Julia is flexible but she's not a corkscrew.

  2. #137
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    After what has happened so far with the scores I can see Julia in 1st, Yuna in 2nd and Gracie in 3rd. Think the ones who are going to get dinged because of the 'planned results' are Mao and Kostner.

  3. #138
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    Quote Originally Posted by SimplyAFan View Post
    I'm just glad we can have this discussion. Until about a month ago, it was considered fact that Kim was going to win. With Julia's European title, her performance in the team event, and the fact that she's Russian (sadly, this will be a factor) there will be a real competition. Quite frankly, I like it better that way because it makes it 10x more exciting to watch (although I'm always excited to watch skating!!).

    I will say this though: the individual event at the Olympics is an entirely different animal. There are a lot of factors at play here. Julia just competed 2 programs and now has to get right back to practicing even though there is probably a demand for her with the international press right now, which she is less used to than Yuna. Maybe Julia has more momentum at this point. She has the home crowd support, although these two are about equal so far in handling pressure. However, nerves could still be a factor here. Yuna is sitting back watching the team event take place and seeing the scores Julia got and how she performed. She knows what Julia is capable of. Until recently, she knows she's been the clear favorite to win and maybe knowing someone is right on her heels will throw her off. Also, Yuna hasn't competed in high level competition in almost a year. On the other hand, Julia has never competed against Kim and may be thrown off by her, especially if she skates right after Yuna and hears marks that she may or may not be able to beat. Another thing to think about, when Julia stepped on the ice for her FS in the team event, she knew that gold medal was already around her neck and she had her team to back her up if something went wrong. She won't have that luxury this time. Just some food for thought here.

    But then again they're both amazing and could easily rise to the occasion. I just hope we see a really competitive ladies event and the honestly best 3 land on the podium.
    At this point, having "a real competition" is irrelevant as you have observed the judging pattern centering on Julia this season. It has more to do with the ISU's shifted position. In a larger picture it indicates the ISU's desperate politics, now that Kim, Asada and more are retiring soon, which their COP system will be more vulnerable than ever and exposed to the dissenters' attack. Kim has been in virtual retirement, and in the post-Kim, there is a vacuum of figurehead in the ladies who can advocate the COP like Kim did since few ladies are able to land triples in competition. Thus Julia is a savior to the ISU although her qualities might not be good enough. In this context the ISU lavishes her with kudos. But by so doing, the ISU made a critical mistake; their arbitrary judging in fact dismantles the COP principle and its very foundation rooted in fairness and accuracy in evaluating skating. It also shows inventing a mathematical system or any system of precision will be meaningless unless the operator is willing to remain neutral and adhere to the principle of competition. What is more important is that the quality skating the COP promotes has been compromised due to the recent arbitrary judging and by applying different yardsticks to skaters it is in essence a judging fraud.

  4. #139
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    Based on past competition results I don't see Yuna breaking 150 even with a perfect program, I see Yuna maxing out around 148-149. I say this because I don't see the judges giving Yuna any 'additional' boosts if 148-149 has already been shown to be a 'fair' score for a perfect Yuna program. I don't necessarily think there is some massive judging conspiracy or fixing going on, but I do think judges may feel pressured to have Julia do well in her home country. Julia has the benefit of not having a track record of scores to compare against, which make me think Julia is a complete wildcard, and given how the judges may have been 'testing the waters' at the team competition with almost little to no media backlash at the result I'm wondering how high Julia's score can go? I could see her PCS going up another 3-4 points, so assuming she gets 4 points in the PCS and superior GOEs I can see her score going up another 4 points on PCS and 6 points on GOE, leaving her at 151-152. The 2-3 point margin over Yuna in the LP may be what gets Julia to the OGM if Yuna beats her in the SP by 1 or 2 points. Thoughts?

  5. #140
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    Quote Originally Posted by tokugawaice View Post
    Based on past competition results I don't see Yuna breaking 150 even with a perfect program, I see Yuna maxing out around 148-149. I say this because I don't see the judges giving Yuna any 'additional' boosts if 148-149 has already been shown to be a 'fair' score for a perfect Yuna program. I don't necessarily think there is some massive judging conspiracy or fixing going on, but I do think judges may feel pressured to have Julia do well in her home country. Julia has the benefit of not having a track record of scores to compare against, which make me think Julia is a complete wildcard, and given how the judges may have been 'testing the waters' at the team competition with almost little to no media backlash at the result I'm wondering how high Julia's score can go? I could see her PCS going up another 3-4 points, so assuming she gets 4 points in the PCS and superior GOEs I can see her score going up another 4 points on PCS and 6 points on GOE, leaving her at 151-152. The 2-3 point margin over Yuna in the LP may be what gets Julia to the OGM if Yuna beats her in the SP by 1 or 2 points. Thoughts?
    Anything possible. But I tend to think that rather than further boosting Julia's scores, the ISU would prefer Kim's or other veterans' flawed performances, which makes it look less controversial for Julia's win if she skates as she did; because everything looks overstretched as of now already.

  6. #141
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    Liptnitskaya may win Gold, but she will never be a real champion and nobody will consider her as one either. Michelle Kwan never won OGM but she is a hero and a champion to a lot of people, as is Yuna. One OGM cannot make up for the entire career.

    I really hope Litpnitskaya is judged on her own merit (in which case, if all of her contenders skate cleanly, she is not likely to win gold). Even if she wins gold this time, many people are likely to attribute it to home advantage, fixing in judging, fluke, or mistakes by others. Nobody has proven to be a deserving champion like Yuna.

  7. #142
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    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    The team LP was already as far as I can see Julia's scores going. It was the best she could possibly skate, and already some fairly generous GOE and PCS. It is actually easier to see Kim going beyond 73 in PCS if someone like Julia is cracking 70, and thus improving her 148 from Worlds last year than Julia improving any further from a 140ish.

    Sorry but the idea of Julia's score being pushed to 150 or beyond is delusional fantasy at best. She wont even come close to that.
    You raise an interesting point. Suppose Julia skates before Yuna in the LP and they give Julia 73 PCS, with a perfect Yuna I don't see any way for the Judges to award Yuna anything lower than 76 PCS otherwise the red flags will definitely be raised.

    However I think another point that's important is that in the 6.0 world it was easier for the lay-person or journalist to interpret whether or not scores were "too high" or not. In that system people could roughly know who was 1st,2nd,3rd, etc. I feel like in the new system the lay-person won't necessarily know that Yuna was a lot better than Julia in things like skating skills, speed, flow over the ice, etc especially if Yuna makes a mistake. They will see o wow! Julia skated perfectly and that was such an amazing performance! not the 147 points versus the 142 points type of thinking.

  8. #143
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    Quote Originally Posted by tokugawaice View Post
    I could see her PCS going up another 3-4 points, so assuming she gets 4 points in the PCS and superior GOEs I can see her score going up another 4 points on PCS and 6 points on GOE, leaving her at 151-152. The 2-3 point margin over Yuna in the LP may be what gets Julia to the OGM if Yuna beats her in the SP by 1 or 2 points. Thoughts?
    Right at your though on Yuna scored around 148 if perfect, I'm actually much agree and think you are in right mind, but what the h*ll is this with nonsense Julia will crack THE WORLD RECORD and win over a clean Yuna???? So much fantasy here

  9. #144
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    I just want to say this at the end of this event "all hail the queen"

  10. #145
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    Quote Originally Posted by nguyenghita View Post
    Right at your though on Yuna scored around 148 if perfect, I'm actually much agree and think you are in right mind, but what the h*ll is this with nonsense Julia will crack THE WORLD RECORD and win over a clean Yuna???? So much fantasy here
    Revisionist history. Apparently in the alternate universe that Yulia came from recently, she has already been to Worlds several times, has a few world titles under her belt and is the most dominant skater in history.

    The hype is all good. Put the pressure on Yuna's competitor and let her come in under the radar instead.

  11. #146
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    I don't think Yuna's skating in 2013 Worlds was better than that of Vancouver, but if you consider that jumps' GOE got reduced by 30% (+0.7/+1.4/+2.1 instead of +1/+2/+3) after the 2010 Olympics, her score of 148 in 2013 probably surpassed 150 by the 2010 standard.

  12. #147
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    For me, it's not possible to say whether 2010 Olympics or 2013 World Champs was better for Yuna. They were both so far above and beyond any other ladies skater I've ever seen.

  13. #148
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    Quote Originally Posted by Krislite View Post
    Revisionist history. Apparently in the alternate universe that Yulia came from recently, she has already been to Worlds several times, has a few world titles under her belt and is the most dominant skater in history.
    They must think her name is Yuna or something.

    Last year at Worlds, when she hit ~148, I thought a clean Yuna would score above 150 at the Olympics, given it's the Olympics. I didn't take account of the Russian factor, but I really hope that the judges will choose not to apply the Olympic inflation selectively. That's all I hope for at this point.

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