Ladies Qualifying Groups/Start Orders

mzheng said:

I'm surprised that all 3 Japanese ladies in ONE group.

Seems the QA is a hard group than QB.

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In 2001, all the US ladies (Kwan, Hughes, Nikodinov) were in the same qualifying group along with Maria Butyrskaya.

It always seems one group is harder than the other. In 2001, Irina was in the other group and obviously had an easier time qualifying since she didn't have the Americans or Maria in her group. Last year, Fumie was in the 'easier' qualifying group - she didn't have Michelle or Sasha in her group.

Herm (sk8ngnutt)

Theoretically, the QR unfairness should be eliminated (or at least diminished) with CoP. Since there the scores are not relative, it shouldn't matter what group one skates in.

Ptichka said:

Theoretically, the QR unfairness should be eliminated (or at least diminished) with CoP.

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Famous last words, this is the ISU we're talking about, not King Solomon. Trust me, they'll find some way to ruin it.

LOL, Mafke, you're probably right. It looks like everyone did fine with the draws. Michelle has no problem skating early. Irina is too much of a question mark to really speculate. I just hope Fumie and Shizuka can make it into the top 4, although I'm sure they'll probably do fine. Sasha is in a fine position to win her group. I hope everyone skates well. I hate to see someone's chances ruined right off the bat, it sort of takes a bit of the excitement away from the SP!

Group A is the tougher, but Michelle is the defending WC and she has skated well in many tough groups. She also does just fine when skating early. However, it is most unfortunate for the Japanese ladies, who are all in the same group (similar to what happened to the USA ladies last year) and must contend with Michelle as well. I suspect Irina will struggle here but we will see what happens. Kostner is also lurking in the group and you never know when she might suddenly pull of a great performance.

The good news for the USA is that Cohen and Kirk got into the somewhat easier group B. This should help Cohen get on the podium and Jenny with a possible top 6 finish. Nice for Cohen too since she got shafted in the QR last year. The only realistic threat is Elena Sokolova but if Sasha skates well I can't see the judges putting Elena's crappy presentation above her. Of course Sasha, with her infamous inconsistency, could bomb the QR. But I think Sasha will be more relaxed because she is not in Michelle's group and this will help her to do well.

Mafke said:

Famous last words, this is the ISU we're talking about, not King Solomon. Trust me, they'll find some way to ruin it.

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Mafke, this is exactly the reason I used works such as "Theoretically", "or at least somewhat diminished", etc. Had it NOT been ISU, I would have said "QR Unfairness will become history next year under CoP".

if Sasha skates well I can't see the judges putting Elena's crappy presentation above her

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IIRC Ogre, didn't Sasha skate cleanly at last year's QR and still get placed behind Sokolva to come third?

I hope for the unpredictable to happen and put some excitement into the competition.

kappa_1 said:

IIRC Ogre, didn't Sasha skate cleanly at last year's QR and still get placed behind Sokolva to come third?

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That is correct. I did not view the QR last year, but heard the reports. Sasha landed 7 triples but supposedly was slow and stumbled on her footwork. Sokolova landed two 3/3s.

Sasha's skating improved significantly in 2003 and even moreso in 2004. Elena, in contrast, seems to have gone backward from her 2003 form. Sokolova may have the better jumps, but now when you compare them on almost everything else -- spins, spirals, footwork, choreography, musical interpretation, carriage/posture, line and even speed -- Sasha trumps Elena so soundly it isn't funny. If Robin is able to improve Sasha's basic skating, the gap will be wider still.