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Thread: Is Lipnitskaya unbeatable?

  1. #1
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    Is Lipnitskaya unbeatable?

    The way I see it, Julia has won the gold medal and there is no way anyone else can win.

    Julia and Gracie did, IIRC, the same triples.
    Julia was 12 points ahead of Gracie.
    I am assuming that several of these points are coming from her signature spins, especially the one where she grabs her skate while it is straight up in the air.
    Nobody else can physically do this. Most people's arms are shorter than their legs. In fact, by most, I mean 99% of the population. Even Yuna's arms are shorter than her legs.

    Therefore, literally nobody can beat this girl. I would be shocked if anyone else can win, unless she melts down, and she doesn't appear prone to do that.

    They may as well just give her the medal now.

  2. #2
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    Well, it seems so, doesnt it?
    She's being pushed as the #1 ladies skater of the games so far. I couldnt believe my eyes when i saw that 141.
    It's simply ridicoulus how someones PCS can rise almost 10 points in one season with basically the same good performance each time...
    I wouldnt be surprised if she bests her team scores in the individual again.

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    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    Kim and Asada skating cleanly will beat her for sure. If Asada does her planned program, both can make 2 mistakes over the 2 programs and possibly beat her. Adelina even might beat her skating cleanly, although I question that more than in past events as I get the impression Julia is being pushed as their #1 and politiked hard for here, so it will be harder for even a clean Adelina to beat her here than other events due to that. Kostner skating clean and inspired could maybe beat her, despite losing the short program to Julia in the Team Event. The long program tends to favor the more artistic skater though.
    Sorry, I see it exactly opposite. It is Yulia who has to fall apart to lose. If she is clean only super-clean and super-spectacular Yuna can beat her. Asada - absolutely not.
    Kostner - are you kidding???!! Are you sure you know what you are saying???

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    Great, it's gotten to the point where Asada supposedly can't even beat her when clean(ridiculous) and Yuna has to be nothing short of brilliant to win. Well, when someone is scored 141, I guess this is what it comes to.

  5. #5
    skating philosopher Mrs. P's Avatar
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    Did people forget that Yuna Kim's PB is 148? That's 7 points clear of what Julia scored.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mrs. P View Post
    Did people forget that Yuna Kim's PB is 148? That's 7 points clear of what Julia scored.
    Her PB in the long tops 150. In the short it's 78.50. PB for combined is over 228.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mrs. P View Post
    Did people forget that Yuna Kim's PB is 148? That's 7 points clear of what Julia scored.
    Did you forget the suitcases have changed hands already? Uh...I mean did you forget we are in Russia and Poutine is watching?

  8. #8
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    God I hope not. I thought this was figure skating. Not a contortionist competition!

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    How is someone who scores 141 the favorite over someone who scores 149? Do you people think a clean Yuna is going to be 10 points below clean Yuna from last year? If Julia gets anywhere near the PCS for her jumps as Yuna it will be an absolute travesty.

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    Quote Originally Posted by drivingmissdaisy View Post
    How is someone who scores 141 the favorite over someone who scores 149? Do you people think a clean Yuna is going to be 10 points below clean Yuna from last year? If Julia gets anywhere near the PCS for her jumps as Yuna it will be an absolute travesty.
    You have a typo: GOE. But I completely agree.

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    Didn't Yuna's PB come at a time there was one more element in the LP? And she could do another 2A?

    I think it will be close between Yuna and Julia, I think Mao is out of the equation unless she really steps up. Yuna is hurt by not doing the loop. Julia will have a higher base value, Yuna higher PCS, though maybe not by much. I think the story will be in the GoEs. Anywhere else then Russia I think Yuna would have the edge, with the way the Russian crowd is reacting, I think it gives the edge to Julia. Polite applause for Yuna, thunderous ovation for Julia - it has to effect the judges some. Especially with Yuna skating early in the SP

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by ivy View Post
    Didn't Yuna's PB come at a time there was one more element in the LP? And she could do another 2A?

    I think it will be close between Yuna and Julia, I think Mao is out of the equation unless she really steps up. Yuna is hurt by not doing the loop. Julia will have a higher base value, Yuna higher PCS, though maybe not by much. I think the story will be in the GoEs. Anywhere else then Russia I think Yuna would have the edge, with the way the Russian crowd is reacting, I think it gives the edge to Julia. Polite applause for Yuna, thunderous ovation for Julia - it has to effect the judges some. Especially with Yuna skating early in the SP
    .

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    Quote Originally Posted by ivy View Post
    Didn't Yuna's PB come at a time there was one more element in the LP? And she could do another 2A?

    I think it will be close between Yuna and Julia, I think Mao is out of the equation unless she really steps up. Yuna is hurt by not doing the loop. Julia will have a higher base value, Yuna higher PCS, though maybe not by much. I think the story will be in the GoEs. Anywhere else then Russia I think Yuna would have the edge, with the way the Russian crowd is reacting, I think it gives the edge to Julia. Polite applause for Yuna, thunderous ovation for Julia - it has to effect the judges some. Especially with Yuna skating early in the SP
    Yuna's PB also came at a time when PCS levels were much, much lower than they are now. I would say it is generally a wash, as indicated by her scores in her two competitions this season. If you make reasonable adjustments (e.g. nationals bonus, the cost of mistakes), they indicate that Yuna is going to score around 225-230 for a clean competition.

    Her 2013 Worlds performance tells a very similar story. Over 218 with a variety of mistakes/missed levels. Adjusted for cleanliness puts her around mid 220s. If her PCS in the SP is adjusted for current inflated practice, she's right back in the 225-230 range.

    This year, Yuna is skating as the reigning World Champion as well as OGM. My own view is that skating early will not be quite as costly as last year.

    Gad, it's amazing how numbers exhibit internal harmony, innit?

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    Quote Originally Posted by ivy View Post
    Didn't Yuna's PB come at a time there was one more element in the LP? And she could do another 2A?
    That's the last Olympics, right? Just last year, she scored ~148. I think this year's layout is the same as the last year, so an absolutely clean Yuna with a breathtaking performance has scored 148 under the current setup, and that's what's expected. (And with factoring change in mind, that was better than her ~150 from the 2010 Olympics, so she's gone up in points.) I'm not sure if Julia can improve her performance in individual, but if she goes against Yuna from Worlds 13 with the same performance at ~141, then Yuna will (or should) win.

    That said, it's not guaranteed that Yuna can pull that off again, so that's a moot point, but still. A clean Yuna can beat Julia at the same level, easy. A clean Mao can definitely beat both Julia and even Yuna at her best. No matter of overscoring can possibly beat someone landing at least two 3As and executing every element without a clear mistake, no.

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    Quote Originally Posted by vegarin View Post
    That's the last Olympics, right? Just last year, she scored ~148. I think this year's layout is the same as the last year, so an absolutely clean Yuna with a breathtaking performance has scored 148 under the current setup, and that's what's expected. (And with factoring change in mind, that was better than her ~150 from the 2010 Olympics, so she's gone up in points.) I'm not sure if Julia can improve her performance in individual, but if she goes against Yuna from Worlds 13 with the same performance at ~141, then Yuna will (or should) win.

    That said, it's not guaranteed that Yuna can pull that off again, so that's a moot point, but still. A clean Yuna can beat Julia at the same level, easy. A clean Mao can definitely beat both Julia and even Yuna at her best. No matter of overscoring can possibly beat someone landing at least two 3As and executing every element without a clear mistake, no.
    Actually, the uber part of me is excited by the scoring inflation, but only if relative fairness is maintained. If so, then the turbocharging of GOE and PCS scores could see a clean Yuna (who skates at the level of last season's Worlds LP) break her own world records.

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