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Thread: Is Lipnitskaya unbeatable?

  1. #61
    quietly lurking jenm's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by wootie View Post
    I agree with some of the other posters here about Yulia's absurd inflation and her total lack of artistic prowess. Yes, she's a technical marvel...boy can she extend that leg vertically!!! Boy can she rotate that double axel super fast! Boy does she look super busy on the ice! It must mean she's an amazing skater, right?! Eh, no. So it's great that she is consistent and lands her triples pretty regularly. But Yulia looks like some sort of freakish Frankenstein gymnast robot on the ice, not a lyrical and athletic thoroughbred. She always looks dour and everything appears old hat for some reason when watching her. All the flexibility and ice cold precision...yet....soooooo dry and uninspiring. I know she's young, but something about her aura, persona comes across as dull and automated. She has a lot of mental toughness and some good technique, but nothing about her is artistic. Blah.
    Agree.

  2. #62
    Custom Title FSGMT's Avatar
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    Yu-Na last year at Worlds scored around 70 for a clean SP with the edge call... without it, how high can she reach? 73? 74? (Remember that she scored 78 with the spiral sequence, 5.40 points, and with higher GOEs for all the jumps and with a level 4 layback, she doesn't have all these things now so I don't think that she can really score more than 75)
    Julia scored 72.90 without skating her best (she can usually do a lot better all of those jumps)... I don't think the judges will be afraid to give Yulia almost the same PCS as Yu-Na, and the same for the GOEs, and don't forget that Yulia's spins will score a couple points more than Yu-Na's...
    The only one who has the chance to beat Julia in the SP is Yu-Na, but only if she skates incredibly incredibly well (at least as well as she did at nationals I would say)...

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    At this point, I'm pretty sure that Team Asada and Team Kim are aware that Julia is the one to beat. I'm also certain that they are aware of the overscoring as they are skating on Russian soil. These are realities that may play well into both skaters's psyches heading into the Individual events. With Mao, she must know what her chances are realistically- and there's absolutely no shame in admitting that fact. She probably now knows how it must have felt for Cohen, Slutskaya and Arakawa when they saw her during the 2006 season. The positive here, is that really- there's not that much pressure on her to perform. All eyes will be on Kim, Gracie, and Julia. Although the press will be on Asada too, this week's events have changed- she's not a favourite for gold anymore. This should then give Asada a sense of just 'do your best' because that's all she can do. Obviously, this is how it should play in a perfect World.

    As far as Kim is concerned, the judges should be able to compare her style side by side with Julia. Yes, Julia has flexibility and the technical prowess, but they would never dare give her PCS marks akin to Kim's in either Vancouver or at Worlds. There's just no explaining that. Kim would have to really bomb for her not to be rewarded.

    I don't know about you, but what are the chances that Julia will end up with mind games on the night with such high stakes?

  4. #64
    Riveted vegarin's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jenm View Post
    Sorry but I disagree. Julia's jumps are weaker. They lack height, distance, tight and stable aerial position (sometimes). Yuna's jumps are massive with perfect air position and landings (99% of the time). That's why I don't see how people are saying Julia's jumps are "perfect". I certainly don't see why the judges gave her high GoEs especially on her 3Lz-3T.
    I was being sarcastic. Honestly, no way that Julia's is in any way as near Yuna's. I've seen Gracie's and Julia's same 3Lz combo side by side and even Gracie's should've received at least as high GOE's as Julia's.

  5. #65
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    Welcome to GS, Alexis!

    Whoever wins, it will be a disservice to Julia if she is overmarked. If she should do better than everyone else but get outlandish marks, it will look as if she won because of her marks, not because of her performance. This shadow will follow her afterward. When YuNa won in Vancouver, she was so clearly superior that there was no question that she deserved the gold. But even a close victory can be understandable as long as both skaters are marked to the same standard, as in the case of Michelle and Tara in Nagano. Some of us may not be happy with the results, but we see what the judges valued and how things added up.

  6. #66
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    I honestly doubt that Julia will crumble under pressure. That girl is a robot. She has nerves of steel and has nothing to lose.

    Although I respect her fierce competitiveness and I think her spins are great, I am not a great fan of her skating. When I see her skating I am left without emotions and quite frankly I do not like her programs. They have been crafted very ingeniously, but they are manipulative in my opinion (especially Schindler’s List). I also fail to see her connection to the music and her ability as a story teller. She is a prodigious 15 years old, but she is till a kid and it shows. She has the making of a star, but in my opinion she is not shining yet. I know she gets huge scores, but I do not think that her performances (especially the FS in the Team Event) deserve these kind of staggering values.

    Whether she is unbeatable will really depend on the judging and the performances of other skaters. If Mao skates lights out and lands her jumps, I really do not see how they could put Julia on top. Mao skates with so much grace, she is so lyrical and her SP is truly magnificent in my opinion. And if Caro is clean on both programs with a similar jumps layout as in Worlds last year I do not think I could bear Julia receiving higher scores. It was hard enough at the Team Event after Caro’s performance which was too good for words. Even on that occasion, the difference in their skating skills was so palpable and Carolina’s ability to conjure moments of true beauty so clear that I was disturbed to see Julia being placed first. If that was a sign of things to come, then there is, alas, little hope for Caro and Yuna and perhaps only Mao’s triple axel could save the night. I hope I am wrong and that my dream podium (Caro, Mao and Yuna) comes true though!

    Quote Originally Posted by TheCzar View Post
    At this point, I'm pretty sure that Team Asada and Team Kim are aware that Julia is the one to beat. I'm also certain that they are aware of the overscoring as they are skating on Russian soil. These are realities that may play well into both skaters's psyches heading into the Individual events. With Mao, she must know what her chances are realistically- and there's absolutely no shame in admitting that fact. She probably now knows how it must have felt for Cohen, Slutskaya and Arakawa when they saw her during the 2006 season. The positive here, is that really- there's not that much pressure on her to perform. All eyes will be on Kim, Gracie, and Julia. Although the press will be on Asada too, this week's events have changed- she's not a favourite for gold anymore. This should then give Asada a sense of just 'do your best' because that's all she can do. Obviously, this is how it should play in a perfect World.

    As far as Kim is concerned, the judges should be able to compare her style side by side with Julia. Yes, Julia has flexibility and the technical prowess, but they would never dare give her PCS marks akin to Kim's in either Vancouver or at Worlds. There's just no explaining that. Kim would have to really bomb for her not to be rewarded.

    I don't know about you, but what are the chances that Julia will end up with mind games on the night with such high stakes?

  7. #67
    I'm gonna Customize the CRAP out of this Title!!! Frenchie's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Olympia View Post
    Whoever wins, it will be a disservice to Julia if she is overmarked. If she should do better than everyone else but get outlandish marks, it will look as if she won because of her marks, not because of her performance. This shadow will follow her afterward.
    I think Julia will gladly take an Olympic Gold Medal even if it's widely criticized as undeserved.

    I thought about that issue and that it would be interesting to ask a few skaters who won controversially many years ago how they fared, and how they see it now: "would you rather have finished 2nd and everybody was ok with it, or win with some/many boos?"

    I'm afraid they have lifted Julia's scores to a degree where a clean Lipnitskaya will beat everybody but a clean Kim and Asada.
    A clean Kim is imo pretty likely, a clean Asada is imo very unlikely. I fear even a stellar Suzuki or Kostner will lose to a clean Lipnitskaya since they'll just get the "politically correct strict minimum" in GOE and PCS. Lipnitskaya is imo the most reliable on her jumps, hence likely to skate clean (Flutz notwithstanding, but it probably won't be called anyway).
    Yet another factor is how this situation will affect everyone's performances: will they feel "defeated before even skating" and hence make mistakes?
    I have a really awkward feeling going into this.

  8. #68
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    Quote Originally Posted by FlattFan View Post
    Julia's PCS will rise at least 1 or 2 points next week in the LP. She will crack 70 in PCS for sure. Who is counting against this?
    Her TES might be padded upward.

    I can see her getting closer to 145 in the LP.

    In the SP, I see her getting 74.

    Kim's SP will not beat Julia's SP because her spins will not get the same level and same GOE. Steps will be a wash. Jumps? Julia's perfect lutz + perfect 3T will get +2 and +3 GOE. Kim has no advantage over her in GOE either.
    I could see Kim's losing in the SP even because her spins are weaker.

    If Kim makes 1 mistake, she will not beat a clean robot.

    Kostner is already done. Her perfect SP with superior everything lost to traveling spins, tiny jumps, flutz, weak skills, heart drawing juniorish program.

    ...
    This is what I think will happen, though I hope I am wrong. So many say they were okay with the inflated scores as long as the placements were correct, but I believe the scores contribute to perceptions of the skaters by the judges and tech callers in future competitions, so I don't find the inflated scores innocuous. I fear Yuna and the others will not be getting the same inflation as Julia in the individual comp.

    I hope I'm wrong and look forward to writing a bolded "I was so wrong" post after the Individual comp is over. Accurate scoring for all and try to keep the inflation to a minimum, Olympics or no Olympics!

  9. #69
    quietly lurking jenm's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by vegarin View Post
    I was being sarcastic. Honestly, no way that Julia's is in any way as near Yuna's. I've seen Gracie's and Julia's same 3Lz combo side by side and even Gracie's should've received at least as high GOE's as Julia's.
    Sorry XD I thought that was for real. My bad.

  10. #70
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    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    To put it simply any of you who think a clean Julia would ever beat a clean Kim or for that matter a clean Asada are not dealing with a full deck. Even her inflated scores are WAY way behind Kim's various best scores. The example of her beating a clean Kostner is meaningless since Kostner was never a favorite going into these Games. I said that many times, people talking about Kostner as if she were still one of the 2 or 3 favorites after her season were clueless. Kostner also does only a triple toe-triple toe in the short. I was not surprised to see Julia beat a clean Kostner in the SP, and I have no idea why anyone else was, she had already done it twice this year. Yet her doing it here seemingly creates some new revelations that werent there before, ROTFL!!!

    Beating a clean Kim and clean Asada right now is about 3 levels higher in difficulty than beating a clean Kostner.
    Okay, pangtongfan, without questioning my sanity (I'm pretty sure my deck is full lol), would you explain why you don't feel that Julia's scores will continue to rise with similar content and performance, such that she will get still higher scores in the individual competition? Or, do you feel her scores will rise, but the others' will too, exactly commensurately? Or do you think her scores have not been inflated, so she will get roughly the same in the individual comp? But if the last, why have they had their meteoric rise over the last few events, and why would that rise stop now?

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    Quote Originally Posted by rallycairn View Post
    But if the last, why have they had their meteoric rise over the last few events, and why would that rise stop now?
    She is getting to the point to where her PCS can't rise much more. It's already at Mao level and just behind Caro and Yuna. If Julia's PCS rises to match those two then really there's no point in having a second mark at all because it is not measuring the criteria it should be.

  12. #72
    Rejoicing in the land of Kwan kwanatic's Avatar
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    The point is Julia is now putting pressure on Yu-Na to perform. Yu-Na isn't known for skating lights out on a regular basis; she's only done it twice in her career and yes it happened to be at the two biggest events but that's still a small percentage of competitions where she's been clean a back-to-back. Julia on the other hand is known for skating close to flawless every time she steps on the ice.

    Julia's scores have been trending upwards since nationals. The went higher at Euros and higher still at the team event. At this point the judges have positioned her to go head-to-head with Yu-Na and Mao; she's beaten Carolina in their last 3 meetings (COR, Euros, team event). The same can be said for Adelina. She scored 33.58 in PCS in the SP at Euros and 69.60 in the FS. Those PCS will keep her in the top 5 if she skates the way she skated at Euros. Both Russian ladies have been maneuvered into position for these Games and they are right where they need to be to land on the podium if they skate well.

    I don't see Julia beating a clean Yu-Na or Mao, but if she's clean and they make mistakes I think the judges will place her above them. At this point the likelihood of them skating cleanly is Julia>Yu-Na>>>Mao. Yu-Na can skate cleanly but she's not known for it. She'll usually have a small mistake here or there but the affect on her score is negligible b/c she's usually a good distance ahead of everyone...that gap has closed significantly in the last month or so thanks to Julia.

    If Julia is clean and Yu-Na makes a mistake, I think the judges will give it to Julia. She's getting the PCS to be competitive with Yu-Na and the +GOE has gone through the roof as well (+2s and +3s on everything, even her jumps which is laughable). It's not fair but it's the way it is. The judges are making it so that there will definitely be a Russian lady on the podium and with Julia consistently skating so well, the pressure is on the veterans to deliver.

  13. #73
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    Quote Originally Posted by rallycairn View Post
    Okay, pangtongfan, without questioning my sanity (I'm pretty sure my deck is full lol), would you explain why you don't feel that Julia's scores will continue to rise with similar content and performance, such that she will get still higher scores in the individual competition?
    If Julia's score continues rise into Yuna's record level then sorry, no matter how clean she actually skates, that's just absolutely ridiculous. Even she probably will take gold, her win will be the most controvesy ever with that blinded score. So many people will done with this sport if it's happen anyway

  14. #74
    Riveted vegarin's Avatar
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    I've calmed down a bit since yesterday (when I was off sick so I was getting caught up with articles and reviews and protocols), and I think the idea that a clean Julia could potentially beat a clean Yuna or a clean Asada does seem a bit ridiculous now, even with the home ground inflation. Or the fact that Julia's more of a threat to Yuna than a potentially clean Mao. I think it was just a knee-jerk reaction at this:

    I fear even a stellar Suzuki or Kostner will lose to a clean Lipnitskaya since they'll just get the "politically correct strict minimum" in GOE and PCS. Lipnitskaya is imo the most reliable on her jumps, hence likely to skate clean (Flutz notwithstanding, but it probably won't be called anyway).
    The fact that my favourite vets Caro and Akiko got so low-balled -- the reality that a fantastic Caro may not beat Julia is just settling in like a shock -- on top of Julia being so generously boosted when everyone else's GOE was completely stingy at best kind of put this fear in me. But seriously, no way they can put a clean Yuna behind Julia, even an obvious mistake-free Julia. The thing is, when Yuna is clean, she's squeaky clean. She may not get as much GOE on the spin as Julia, but that's probably the only area that she can possibly score lower than Julia. Julia may go fall-free, but she's never been without obvious mistakes, and even if they decide to lowball on everything that gives Yuna her name (jumps, flow, speed, choreography, lightness) and don't apply the same inflation on her (which they couldn't possibly, not to the reigning champion), that would still give her more than enough to beat inflated Julia. One mistake, they may pound on her, but there's also this:

    Yet another factor is how this situation will affect everyone's performances: will they feel "defeated before even skating" and hence make mistakes?
    Someone said it before, that Yuna has the balls of steel, and it's been proven true more than once. When people assume the pressure may get to her, or when they think her absence may mean she may make mistakes is when she just comes into the game and bring down the house without batting an eyelash. When people think her win is automatic is when she doesn't do as well. (But not doing as well for her translates to a couple of mistakes and a second place, so there's that.) Before this, she's been pretty low-key about her ambition for this Olympics, just saying that she wants to wrap her last game before retirement as well as possible (and as she should), but now, with all the judging issues and someone suddenly getting 7-9 PCS and incredible GOEs after a single game to match the top trio (who have taken years on ice to get those scores), that would do wonders for her competitive streak and she would be unafraid to show it. She'd probably want to crush all the competition now. So she doesn't have a home ground advantage or a strong federation to back her up, but she's never really needed one, not when she has her reputation and PBS to back her up.

    Also, historically, Mao brings her A game when Yuna is on, so there's that.

    Oh man. I desperately want Mao and Yuna and Caro to rock this game. I'm actually honestly fuming that this Oly FS is apparently really shafting my country (What's up with the drug testing on Canadian figure skaters? I thought people were making that up, one of the conspiracy theories, but apparently the majority of the skaters who were tested were Canadian? How many Russians were tested, huh?) and completely dissing Caro. If they do something to Yuna, then I just can't.

  15. #75
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    To answer the thread title, no. But the only one who can beat a clean (or nearly clean) Julia is Yu Na. I see Yu Na getting better GOEs on her jumps and footwork and better PCS on SS and TR, at least.Julia will do better on spins. I think that would be enough for Yu Na to win. But it will be a lot closer than it was in 2010. The pressure will be on her to do her 3-3s in both programs. At the Golden Spin, where she missed it in the long, she only scored a 131. Julia will beat that if she lands her jumps, flutz or no flutz.

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