Is Lipnitskaya unbeatable? | Page 7 | Golden Skate

Is Lipnitskaya unbeatable?

jenaj

Record Breaker
Joined
Aug 17, 2003
Country
United-States
Huh?
I said even if you give her all the bullet points, even creative exit, flow, etc... She would get +2 or +3 GOE.
After getting +2 or +3 GOE, she will then get -2 GOE on poor take off (hello, her 2A is atrocious, the worst ever), another -2GOE for poor speed, height, distance, because, hello, it's obviously that she was barely 2 inches off the ice.

So in the end, even if she satisfies 6-8 bullet points for + GOE, her final GOE would still be in the negative because of the nature of her jump and her technique, mainly poor take off, and poor height.

There's no way she can get any + GOE on any of her jumps even if she satisfies most of the + GOE bullet. This is where they didn't apply the rule correctly.

If jenaj said one more time that Julia's take off is good, we should chip in a buy her a pair of glasses. Have you seen her 2A getting +2 GOE?

That is one jump. I never said her 2A deserved a +2. I said her take-offs didn't deserve a deduction.
 

Poodlepal

On the Ice
Joined
Jan 14, 2010
I have been a JuLip fan for four years now. She was freakishly mesmerizing even back then. And because of after decades of skating fandom and knowing "Don't go with the tiny pre-pubescent wunderkind" I didn't get my hopes up. But year by year her jumps got stronger, higher, as did her skating. I posted maybe here or on TSL at the beginning of the season that I predicted Julia for Olympic Gold. I so hope she pulls this one off. I was the only one on TSL who would dare say that she'd win and not Kim or Mao. Of course now I'm jinxing her, but heck, she has an OGM. She is that special. (IMO)

My prediction is: JuLip, Kim, Gold.

Me too. That's my prediction as well. Here are my very non-technical reasons.

Julia: Rarely falls. Skating a program to remember Holocaust victims (movies with this theme do well at the Academy Awards--why wouldn't it work at the Olympics, too?) Spins like a top. In Russia, so has the hometown advantage.

Yuna: To her disadvantage, nobody has seen her much this year. Her short program is not as good as it was 4 years ago. "Send in the Clowns" muzak might not do it for some people. I mean why not "You Light Up My Life?" or "Feelings" if she wants to do ballads of the 70's? Doesn't write anything on the ice. No hometown advantage. Spins like a regular skater--very well, but still more like everyone else.

On the other hand, she is Yuna, so she's still got a chance.

Other people:
Gracie--seems to be on the move up. If she's clean, she's my frontrunner for bronze.

Carolina--if she doesn't do the hardest jumps, she shouldn't win. And if she skates so fast, tell me why she chooses the slowest possible music. Her speed doesn't come across on tv.

Mao--if she hasn't been hitting the axel lately, as Johnny or Tara said, she's in trouble. Could still podium if she gets it back, but nobody's beating Julia or Yuna.

Adelina--her coach wouldn't even let her skate one leg of the team event. That's not good.

Ashley--she really can't hit that triple/triple, can she? Out of it.

Polina--I could actually see her doing well, oddly enough, but not medal-winning well.
 

Sam-Skwantch

“I solemnly swear I’m up to no good”
Record Breaker
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Dec 29, 2013
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@zamboni step

That is acceptable and downright fair. Some judges could rightfully go a bit higher and some a bit lower depending on the day.
 

zamboni step

Final Flight
Joined
Feb 14, 2013
Me too. That's my prediction as well. Here are my very non-technical reasons.

Julia: Rarely falls. Skating a program to remember Holocaust victims (movies with this theme do well at the Academy Awards--why wouldn't it work at the Olympics, too?) Spins like a top. In Russia, so has the hometown advantage.

Yuna: To her disadvantage, nobody has seen her much this year. Her short program is not as good as it was 4 years ago. "Send in the Clowns" muzak might not do it for some people. I mean why not "You Light Up My Life?" or "Feelings" if she wants to do ballads of the 70's? Doesn't write anything on the ice. No hometown advantage. Spins like a regular skater--very well, but still more like everyone else.

On the other hand, she is Yuna, so she's still got a chance.

Other people:
Gracie--seems to be on the move up. If she's clean, she's my frontrunner for bronze.

Carolina--if she doesn't do the hardest jumps, she shouldn't win. And if she skates so fast, tell me why she chooses the slowest possible music. Her speed doesn't come across on tv.

Mao--if she hasn't been hitting the axel lately, as Johnny or Tara said, she's in trouble. Could still podium if she gets it back, but nobody's beating Julia or Yuna.

Adelina--her coach wouldn't even let her skate one leg of the team event. That's not good.

Ashley--she really can't hit that triple/triple, can she? Out of it.

Polina--I could actually see her doing well, oddly enough, but not medal-winning well.

Yu-Na: James Bond was tacky crap and should have been scored as such. Seriously that program was only any good because Kim brought it to life. Best jumping quality on the planet, even Julia's inflated GOEs don't compare to Yu-Na's 2013 World FS GOE.

Gracie: Has skated four clean programs all season long, I wouldn't cork out the champagne. It could go either way.

Carolina: She does 3Lz, 3F and 3L, harder jumps. And she is very fast, the slow music is because it suits her, just because the music is whizzing around doesn't mean the skater is. :rolleye: She also builds up this speed with three crossovers and edgework, very impressive.

Mao: Watch practice videos...she's been hitting them, just not in the SP. She's a competitor, I wouldn't worry about her ability to do her best on the day. Mao has more fire than people credit her with.

Adelina: Her federation did have a say too you know. And Julia was the obvious choice, the only thing you should worry about is how unfair it is Sotnikova didn't win a gold medal because she wasn't subbed in. In the short program she's beaten Julia in every competition together, and in the free she's not been bad other than Cup of China and GPF. She's hitting her stride, right when she needs to.

Ashley: Her jumps are getting better with Arutunian so maybe wait and see, you're jumping the gun a little here.

Polina: :laugh: of all the "Others" you're being harshest on the one who has the least chance and crumbled under the least pressure already.
 

zamboni step

Final Flight
Joined
Feb 14, 2013
@zamboni step

That is acceptable and downright fair. Some judges could rightfully go a bit higher and some a bit lower depending on the day.

I'm not a Julia fan, but I try to be objective in analysis and I think the "Effortless" bulletpoint will really help Julia. Probably one of my favourite things about her skating, effortless other than the 3Lz (which is only a little niggling aspect). Also her FS is incredibly clever. :agree:

Also as a GOE evaluator, I tend to be pretty picky. So I can see reasoning behind the +2s on everything other than 3S and 3Lz.
 

HalfTriple

Match Penalty
Joined
Jun 8, 2010
Is Julia unbeatable?

The question is a bit misleading; it should have asked whether the ISU will be successful in their quest to crack down the old line-ups represented by Kim, Asada, or Kostner by advocating Julia as a figurehead. This is a war set between the ISU and the those oldies; Julia is a puppet. It is actually the ISU's coup, a soap opera, Haha. How exciting. As apparent in the 2013 Worlds there is no way of the young skaters to catch up with the old line-ups unless the ISU arbitrarily applies the different yardstick. In this context, the question converges on a point whether the ISU eventually is able to knock off Kim by using Julia card; this is not about Julia. But as apparent in the recent Team event, they overstretched; it seems practically undoable unless they turn the judging system upside down. But the ISU's best bet will be Julia's consistency in staying on foot, and Kim's or other skaters' fall, then it will be less embarrassing. The epic battle between the ISU and Kim is now about to unfold. Enjoy the show!
 

Krislite

Medalist
Joined
Sep 22, 2010
I think if the judges wanted to send the message that Yulia was UNbeatable they would have scored her closer to what Yuna got last year at Worlds. 141 is extremely high but certainly not UNbeatable. However, it does leave Yuna almost no room for error.

If Russia has already bought the gold for Yulia, I won't be devastated. Yuna already has an OGM. :) I'd be more sad for Kostner and Asada, who are much more "worthy" of that OGM than Yulia.
 

Sam-Skwantch

“I solemnly swear I’m up to no good”
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Dec 29, 2013
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@halftriple

Interesting take. I think it's more of the ISU signaling higher scores to come next quad. Not so much against just Yuna but more about raising the scores to compete with and eventually surpass Yuna's records. Yuna could skate clean score 142 and Julia gets inflated to 141 again and they make their point and Yuna goes out on top. My prediction is we're going to see scores in the 130's and slowly into the 140's next couple seasons. Bad analogy but not unlike gas prices in regards to slowly trending upward. What's scary is Julia was not clean on her FS which may force judges to uphold the "integrity" of the ISU. What if she goes lights out amazing. how could they score her under 140 Or 145 for that matter. the precedent is there. Julia can skate better than anything shes done yet...its almost surprising if she doesnt given her trends. Julia is on prime position to take advantage and I agree its not even about her or let alone her fault.
 

vegarin

On the Ice
Joined
Mar 19, 2013
So I can see reasoning behind the +2s on everything other than 3S and 3Lz.

Sure, but why can we apply the same reasoning to every other skater? We should be seeing the same increase in GOEs for everyone.

Objectively speaking, she is a great skater. I don't think there should be any dispute over that, and I appreciate all the efforts by those who enjoy her skating explaining why she deserves the high score. You know what? If they decide to give out more generous GOEs all of a sudden for the Olympics, that's totally fine with me. Just apply the same yardstick to everyone else and not just to her, okay? Then everyone will be happy.

All these explanations that why Julia deserves all the great GOEs and PCS she's got, even if they are accepted at the face value, what about the other skaters? The ones who used to receive the same or higher PCS and GOEs as her while conducting the exactly same programs during this very season? Gracie? Ashley? Osmond? Even Caro? Do we remember them at all? And see what they got during the team event? I mean, come on.

Maybe ISU decided to go overboard just a tiny bit because they were so enthralled by her performance this time, and maybe they'll never let it happen again and be all equally generous with GOEs? Who's going to bet that's what's going to happen? Combining with generous scores that only seem to apply to the selective few, and this whole drug-testing Canadian athletes selectively thing (which apparently really happened) and sudden drops on PCS on other skaters... Look, if you were skating for Canada or Japan or Korea or whoever, wouldn't you feel slighted and possibly freaked out by the turn of the events? Would you feel that your skating will be judged as equally as possible? Perhaps skating can't be necessarily just based on one performance alone, and reputation and experience do take a great part in it (so I've given up on getting googly eyed at Plushy's scores -- at least he's worked it for this long), but which country you're skating for should not have such a direct and obvious effect on your scores, for god's sake.
 

HalfTriple

Match Penalty
Joined
Jun 8, 2010
@halftriple

Interesting take. I think it's more of the ISU signaling higher scores to come next quad. Not so much against just Yuna but more about raising the scores to compete with and eventually surpass Yuna's records. Yuna could skate clean score 142 and Julia gets inflated to 141 again and they make their point and Yuna goes out on top. My prediction is we're going to see scores in the 130's and slowly into the 140's next couple seasons. Bad analogy but not unlike gas prices in regards to slowly trending upward. What's scary is Julia was not clean on her FS which may force judges to uphold the "integrity" of the ISU. What if she goes lights out amazing. how could they score her under 140 Or 145 for that matter. the precedent is there. Julia can skate better than anything shes done yet...its almost surprising if she doesnt given her trends. Julia is on prime position to take advantage and I agree its not even about her or let alone her fault.

I don't think the ISU is ever mindful of Kim or Julia or their dynamics. I tend to believe the ISU is preoccupied with the ladies figure skating in the post-Kim in that the ISU wouldn't mind propping up Julia given a slightest provocation due to the lack of figurehead who can land triples in consistency so that their precious COP remain intact against the dissenter's assault in full force, which I think is inevitable to come.
 

vegarin

On the Ice
Joined
Mar 19, 2013
Read my post above yours. Maybe it will come

Wow, thanks for such a warm encouragement toward the direction of enlightenment, there.

Sure, the ISU signaling that they'll be upping the scores for the next quad? That makes a perfect sense. Then once again, we should've seen an increase in scores for almost everyone who skated well. I'm guessing at least Gracie should've seen some increase in her GOEs. She's also in a prime position to take advantage of this, and nothing would be hurt by ISU to gloom another potential, and Gracie is good. She's got the jump, and she's still more consistent than the rest, and she's young and pretty, and looking to improve. But nope, just Julia.

Whatever. Yuna's got one, so maybe it's not such a big loss for her, but Caro. She's been around for more than a decade, and even with ups and downs, she's always been great, and her actual skating skills at least a league better than all these new phenoms. And Mao? And Akiko? Wow. Just wow.
 

Amei

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 11, 2013
Did Julia really make that comment about the Lutz? I really liked her this season but my opinion of her is starting to go downhill. I'm finding those articles declaring her the darling of the games nauseating. It's a shame. I do hope that this doesn't go to her head making her believe she actually deserves the scores she's getting.

Not sure what she said about the lutz but remember - what she is saying in Russian is being translated to English and translations don't always pick up the exact words. And I don't see this going to her head, this was what she said after the long program (link to article below):

“I don’t know how to explain the feeling I had out there,” she said. “I’m very happy to have helped win the first gold medal for Russia. I got nervous in the middle of the program, I’m not sure why, it’s completely unlike me, so the jumps weren’t great in the second half, I didn’t feel totally comfortable. “The jumps didn’t feel like mine at that point. I wouldn’t say I got tired, but some errors still crept in. But even with some flaws it was OK.”

Read more here: http://www.miamiherald.com/2014/02/10/3924466/russias-julia-lipnitskaia-a-princess.html#storylink=cpy

I really liked her this season but my opinion of her is starting to go downhill. I'm finding those articles declaring her the darling of the games nauseating. It's a shame.

Its not like she is the 1 writing the articles.
 

Amei

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 11, 2013
I think Sotnikova could challenge bronze or overtake Julia. Adelina seems to always beat Julia in Russia. Mao just looks beatable and it makes me sad now to say that:(. I don't think Caro could over take her though as Caro is just not technical enough in a field this deep.

I disagree on Sotnitkova overtaking Julia, it says a lot that they didn't put Adelina in the team event and Julia has been 1 of the biggest stories talked about in the Olympics - I think Sotnikova's days as #1 in Russia are over.

And I agree with you on Carolina and Mao - I stated about the same thing on a medal prediction thread.
 

zamboni step

Final Flight
Joined
Feb 14, 2013
I disagree on Sotnitkova overtaking Julia, it says a lot that they didn't put Adelina in the team event and Julia has been 1 of the biggest stories talked about in the Olympics - I think Sotnikova's days as #1 in Russia are over.

And I agree with you on Carolina and Mao - I stated about the same thing on a medal prediction thread.

You have to remember though that people who watch Lipnitskaya, are being informed by commentators that she isn't even National Champion. When they hear Adelina beat her, they will take notice. And I think Russia knows this too.
 

HalfTriple

Match Penalty
Joined
Jun 8, 2010
I disagree on Sotnitkova overtaking Julia, it says a lot that they didn't put Adelina in the team event and Julia has been 1 of the biggest stories talked about in the Olympics - I think Sotnikova's days as #1 in Russia are over.

And I agree with you on Carolina and Mao - I stated about the same thing on a medal prediction thread.

I wouldn't say that. Although Julia's rising looks remarkable lately, it is arbitrarily set up by the ISU's internal policy which is temporal. The truth is that Julia is not as a good skater as her talent. Unlike Adelina who has already full-fledged as a senior, Julia is yet to be molded. Judging from many indications from her skating, I am not sure if Julia can be as successful even as Adelina in the years to come.
 

Amei

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 11, 2013
You have to remember though that people who watch Lipnitskaya, are being informed by commentators that she isn't even National Champion. When they hear Adelina beat her, they will take notice. And I think Russia knows this too.

I think that's kind of a wash though, since a couple weeks after Nationals (outside of Russia) she beat Sotnikova at the European Championship, and she's beaten her in the GPF.
 
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