Based on how the judges have scored Julia in the team competition and based on huge home field advantage (it does seem the judges' scores are being affected by the home crowd reaction), I would say:
1) Julia/Yulia
2) Yuna Kim
3) Adelina
4) Mao(assuming she tries triple axel and falls again) /Gracie
5) Carolina
6) Wagner
OR
If Adelina is not clean
1) Julia/Yulia
2) Yuna Kim
3) Gracie
4) Carolina
5) Mao
6) Ashley
I don't think there is any way Julia is going to finish lower than silver. I don't think it matters how good Yuna Kim/Mao are even though they are so much better artistically and technically--- all that matters is if Julia can skate clean. Julia will skate clean and that will be one of the main feel good story for Russia of the Olympics.
Lol, Why does Mao go down two notches and Caro up one if Adelina doesn't skate clean? just teasing...
I'm not sure that all is true, though. If Yuna skates well, I see her comfortably beating Julia. If with all the hype around Julia, Yuna is still the defending Olympic champion and the reigning world champion and the biggest megastar in skating. Her jumps look as amazing as ever.
Mao - we'll just have to see what she does. If she manages to land the triple axel, my prediction is she will edge out Julia too. I mean, Mao + 3a I think will be hard for the judges to resist.
I'll be interested to see what happens if Caro skates cleanly and Julia does too. I suppose Julia would outscore her unless the judges lavish GOEs and PCS on Caro, which they should but they haven't seemed to want to place her in a different category than Julia, PCS-wise.
It's kind of a bummer that there's such a point difference between Julia and Gracie but I do have to say that I find Julia's programs more poignant. I have mixed feelings about her delivery but she is a bit more memorable - for now.