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Thread: Predictions Ladies event

  1. #61
    she takes the audience on her journey of emotions Layfan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by skatingfan20 View Post
    Based on how the judges have scored Julia in the team competition and based on huge home field advantage (it does seem the judges' scores are being affected by the home crowd reaction), I would say:

    1) Julia/Yulia
    2) Yuna Kim
    3) Adelina
    4) Mao(assuming she tries triple axel and falls again) /Gracie
    5) Carolina
    6) Wagner

    OR
    If Adelina is not clean

    1) Julia/Yulia
    2) Yuna Kim
    3) Gracie
    4) Carolina
    5) Mao
    6) Ashley

    I don't think there is any way Julia is going to finish lower than silver. I don't think it matters how good Yuna Kim/Mao are even though they are so much better artistically and technically--- all that matters is if Julia can skate clean. Julia will skate clean and that will be one of the main feel good story for Russia of the Olympics.
    Lol, Why does Mao go down two notches and Caro up one if Adelina doesn't skate clean? just teasing...

    I'm not sure that all is true, though. If Yuna skates well, I see her comfortably beating Julia. If with all the hype around Julia, Yuna is still the defending Olympic champion and the reigning world champion and the biggest megastar in skating. Her jumps look as amazing as ever.

    Mao - we'll just have to see what she does. If she manages to land the triple axel, my prediction is she will edge out Julia too. I mean, Mao + 3a I think will be hard for the judges to resist.

    I'll be interested to see what happens if Caro skates cleanly and Julia does too. I suppose Julia would outscore her unless the judges lavish GOEs and PCS on Caro, which they should but they haven't seemed to want to place her in a different category than Julia, PCS-wise.

    It's kind of a bummer that there's such a point difference between Julia and Gracie but I do have to say that I find Julia's programs more poignant. I have mixed feelings about her delivery but she is a bit more memorable - for now.

  2. #62
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    Julia is better than Gracie. Gold skates so heavy on the ice. Julia's not in the same league as Yuna, Mao, or even Kostner, Suzuki, and Adelina when they are all on (granted, she can often beat them when they don't skate well).

  3. #63
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    Gold: Yuna
    Silver: Julia
    Bronze: Gracie/Mao

  4. #64
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    Quote Originally Posted by TwinnerA View Post

    I also think the 3A is going to be Mao's downfall, literally in both the SP and FP.
    I really hope it's not going to be "literal." I want Mao to go out on a high note, showing off the best of her, whatever the final standing.

  5. #65
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    It should be...
    Gold : Yuna
    Silver : Gracie
    Bronze : Caro

    But it will be...
    Gold : Yuna
    Silver : Julia
    Bronze : Mao

  6. #66
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    Yuna
    Julia
    Gracie/Caro
    Mao

  7. #67
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    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    The judges arent inspired by Kostner these days period. We have now seen 3 times this season she cant even beat Julia with a clean program anymore (which unlike the bogus speculation in this thread Kim and Mao skating cleanly would do easily 100% of the time). I am relaying what their thoughts obviously are, as born out by their scores, not neccessarily my own. Kostner isnt even a top 3 if everyone skates well anymore, but there is no indication Kim isnt still right at the top.
    that's not true. carolina got a 71 pcs, higher than julia, at europeans this year and that's with 2 popped triples and a fall. carolina has lost to julia this season because she hasn't been clean in both the short and the long programs (she's been injured and hasn't had enough time to train). in the team short, i believe she would have beaten julia had the competition been anywhere else but russia. julia's pcs have been inflated to an insane amount.

    i definitely think carolina is in the top 3. i mean, she's medaled at the last three world championships. anyway, what kills carolina is that she loses concentration mid long program and doesn't think on her feet- she usually makes mistakes mid bolero. anyway, in the long, if she doubles the triple toe after the triple flip for example, she should add a triple toe to her other triple toe in the program. also, she really should add another double axel after her step sequence somewhere. 6 triples and 1 double axel as we saw at europeans this year may not cut it.

    if you see carolina skate in practice she hits triple lutz/triple toe, triple flip/triple toe, double axels/triple toes. all her jumps are huge and effortless. she needs to bring that into the competition and be confident.

  8. #68
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    1. Kim
    2. Julia
    3. Gracie

    4,5,6 will be some combination of Mao, Carolina and Ashley. Sadly, I think Akiko will end up far from the podium based on her score at the team event. Kanako Murakami will likely get dinged on PCS to keep her far away, too. I think Sonitkova will fail on her own, like she did at Worlds.

  9. #69
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    Quote Originally Posted by jenaj View Post
    1. Kim
    2. Julia
    3. Gracie

    4,5,6 will be some combination of Mao, Carolina and Ashley. Sadly, I think Akiko will end up far from the podium based on her score at the team event. Kanako Murakami will likely get dinged on PCS to keep her far away, too. I think Sonitkova will fail on her own, like she did at Worlds.
    You don't think Mao will make the podium? It's hard to imagine Gracie placing ahead of her...

  10. #70
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    1. Kim
    2. Yulia
    3. Gracie
    4. Adelina
    5. Mao
    6. Carolina

  11. #71
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    1. Yuna
    2. Mao (based on recent practice video)
    3. Julia

    That's my guess

  12. #72
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    I realize everyone is really more doing podium predictions with maybe a few other big names thrown in ranking wise, but I'm curious about where people think Polina will end up?

    In some ways it seems to me she's a little like Jason coming into this. His goal was top 10, but having had the chance to skate the LP in the team event, and doing so well, probably upped general public opinion on the expectations of where he would 'land' in singles. Unfortunately, then his LP - and final standing, especially given his SP score - had many (not necessarily here at GS per se) feel like he actually didn't live up to expectations. Sure, he has said he wish his LP ended up how he knew he could skate it, but he was still pleased - great showing in the team event helping to win the bronze, plus the great SP in singles.

    In many ways, it seems like Polina is coming in with no real expectations on her since she's almost entirely unknown. In fact, I'd wager most just general Olympic viewers don't even know there are three female skaters for the US. Since she not only didn't compete in the team event, but also wasn't even in Sochi for it, plus there's been next to no mention of her during the broadcasts almost makes it seem like there may be a "who is she/where did she come from?" type thing going on when we get to the ladies events. The image of the "selfie" she and Jason were taking during the ice dancing SP tonight is the first time I recall even seeing her mentioned! And I'd have to go rewatch, but I'm not even sure they said who she was? (As in talking about Jason and Polina, and maybe mention her as a skater, but not necessarily for the US)

    I imagine the first real "introduction" (mention?) of her will come during the ice dance final, or more accurately, probably following the final as a teaser for the ladies event coming up. But then even that is likely to be more of a package of the three girls, which really still won't do much...and are the kind of things many skip through to see the "real" events. So until what will surely be a true package before her SP skate (or used during the warmup time prior to her skate) it seems she'll remain nearly entirely under the radar.

    In some ways, it seems as if that complete lack of pressure may help her. But she's so unknown, which doesn't typically help things score wise, even if she skated phenomenally and emoted more, etc. it seems like she's going to be held down by the (near) invisibility.

    Who else has come into an Olympic year with as little exposure as Polina? (I don't mean someone who is like the first skater from their country type thing, if that makes sense?)

    What do you guys think is realistic for her goal wise this Olympics? And what do you think would likely be how it plays out in reality?

  13. #73
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    My prediction:
    1) Yulia/Julia L.
    2) Gracie Gold
    3) Mao Asada
    4) Yuna Kim

  14. #74
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    1. Yuna Kim
    2. Mao Asada [I think she has more grit when she competes against Yuna]
    3. Julia Lipnitskaia
    4. Gracie Gold [although I think she deserves scores more equal to Lipnitskaia's]
    5. Carolina Kostner [bc consistency and such]
    6. Adelina Sotnikova [but she was judged higher than Julia at Russian nationals and European's so no idea if she skates clean]
    7. Kanako Murakami
    8. Li Zijun
    9. Ashley Wagner? will she rotate the jumps?
    10. Akiko Suzuki

  15. #75
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    1 Yuna
    2 Gold
    3 Lipnitskaya
    4 Kostner (bombs)
    5 Sotnikova (bombs)
    6 Wagner

    Gold is in the same situation that Hughes was. But having all three leading ladies bombing is asking for too much.

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