Basically it may follow the pattern of the last 4 Olympics
98 1. Lipinsky
both skated their best, but the favorite was upset.
now: 1. Lipnitskaya
02 1. Hughes
she had nothing to lose unlike everyone else who crumbled under pressure. Sarah was clean and landed all the combinations.
now: 1. Gold
06 1. Arakawa
skated a clean but not technically challenging program with strong components and artistry. Everyone else choked
now: 1. Kosner
10 1. Yuna
two clean strong programs with untouchable scores
So we can conclude that there are 4 contenders for the gold. Also Mao/Adelina can't win.