Basically it may follow the pattern of the last 4 Olympics

98 1. Lipinsky
2. Kwan
both skated their best, but the favorite was upset.

now: 1. Lipnitskaya
2. Kwan

02 1. Hughes

she had nothing to lose unlike everyone else who crumbled under pressure. Sarah was clean and landed all the combinations.

now: 1. Gold


06 1. Arakawa

skated a clean but not technically challenging program with strong components and artistry. Everyone else choked

now: 1. Kosner

10 1. Yuna

two clean strong programs with untouchable scores


So we can conclude that there are 4 contenders for the gold. Also Mao/Adelina can't win.