Lipnitskaya, Asada, and Kim: Who is most likely to get the gold? | Page 4 | Golden Skate

Lipnitskaya, Asada, and Kim: Who is most likely to get the gold?

Sam-Skwantch

“I solemnly swear I’m up to no good”
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Dec 29, 2013
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Sotnikova IMHO has better jumps than Gracie. Watch her 2a in the Russian nationals Gala:love: Adelina also attacks her programs much more aggressively than Gracie. That said she still loses me in the presentation. I find myself getting bored in both of her programs and drifting away at times. She too even more than Yulia seems to just tick off boxes on a scoresheet. The thing is, I can't remember Adelina ever losing to Yulia on Russian soil. At the same time Adelina could go to pieces as bad or worse than GPF and no one would be shocked. Yuna is in good shape by going first and setting the standard in the SP. I believe this fact alone will control the inflation of not just the Russians but the whole field. My score prediction is....

Yuna - 216
Yulia - 210
Mao- 207
Adelina- 204
Gracie- 202
 

andyjo24

Medalist
Joined
Feb 16, 2010
Sotnikova IMHO has better jumps than Gracie. Watch her 2a in the Russian nationals Gala:love: Adelina also attacks her programs much more aggressively than Gracie. That said she still loses me in the presentation. I find myself getting bored in both of her programs and drifting away at times. She too even more than Yulia seems to just tick off boxes on a scoresheet. The thing is, I can't remember Adelina ever losing to Yulia on Russian soil. At the same time Adelina could go to pieces as bad or worse than GPF and no one would be shocked. Yuna is in good shape by going first and setting the standard in the SP. I believe this fact alone will control the inflation of not just the Russians but the whole field. My score prediction is....

Yuna - 216
Yulia - 210
Mao- 207
Adelina- 204
Gracie- 202

I respect your opinion, but in my opinion, Yulia is the one who ticks off the boxes. The beginning of her LP is very captivating as well as the ending. But the middle section just involves her doing some arm motions and one jump after another. Just ticking off one jump at a time with some arm motions in between.

I do agree with you that Sotnikova has better jumps than Gracie. Gracie's jumps are very sloppy and have gotten lower (I have been to both Worlds 2013 and US Nationals 2014, so I can attest to this), but her consistency with the jumps has definitely improved (That doesn't mean she's anywhere near Olympic Gold though, skyfly!).
 

andyjo24

Medalist
Joined
Feb 16, 2010
Oh, and this is surprising, but at US Nationals, I felt like Ashley's jumps were actually higher than Gracie's. I was really surprised. :eek:
 

sky_fly20

Match Penalty
Joined
Nov 20, 2011
She would have to skate squeeky clean in both programs to even have a chance, and that would be a first ever for her.

the moon would have to explode before Sotnikova can ever skate 2 clean programs
this girl is destined to follow Kostner's route, though Kostner now has gotten more consistent

Sotnikova is a late bloomer type, if she sticks in her 20's, I think that will be her time
atm, Sotnikova is a headcase that you should never count on even if our life depended on it
 

ice coverage

avatar credit: @miyan5605
Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 27, 2012
Here's a list of skaters represented by IMG. http://img.com/services/talent-representation/figure-skating.aspx
Gracie is just one of many. If she doesn't get a medal at this Olympics or win Worlds in the next four years, the general public won't be hearing much about her.

Thx for the list, jenaj. :)

Agree that IMG is not putting all its eggs in Gold's basket by any stretch ... and would add that IMG always is looking for additional baskets that will be potentially lucrative. No doubt that IMG is keeping a close eye on Jason Brown and Edmunds, for example.

Also agree that at this point, any increase in Gold's popularity among the general public depends on her competitive results. IMG already has gotten attention for Gold as an Olympian (and before that, as an Olympic hopeful). If she doesn't live up to the current hype of a possible Sochi medal, continuing to "sell" her will be more difficult.

that's just low, wishing ill on a skater :disapp:

You are directly responsible for stirring up negativity against Gold in this thread. Your obsessive posts are detrimental to how she is perceived within GS.
 

skatingfan20

Rinkside
Joined
Jan 13, 2014
The triple axel could cost Mao the podium as she has had so many struggles with it. Is it worth it to do something so risky and open the door to everyone else? With a triple axel that is not clean, she is just dooming herself to finish behind Julia and Yuna and maybe behind others as well. With a triple axel that is clean, she does stand a better chance but I doubt gold is going to come down to Mao's triple axel. At this point, it might be best to attempt a fully clean program (with no triple axel) and hope Julia/Yuna make some mistakes.
 

jenaj

Record Breaker
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Aug 17, 2003
Country
United-States
The triple axel could cost Mao the podium as she has had so many struggles with it. Is it worth it to do something so risky and open the door to everyone else? With a triple axel that is not clean, she is just dooming herself to finish behind Julia and Yuna and maybe behind others as well. With a triple axel that is clean, she does stand a better chance but I doubt gold is going to come down to Mao's triple axel. At this point, it might be best to attempt a fully clean program (with no triple axel) and hope Julia/Yuna make some mistakes.

I agree about Mao and the triple axel. I now think the ladies podium is going to be Yuna, Julia and Gracie Gold. Mao just can't do the triple axel anymore (not that she ever did it consistently). Look how costly a botched triple axel was for Patrick and Dai in the men's event. The same thing will happen to Mao. She has a 2A-3T in the long program so she really doesn't need it. Mao also has all five of the other triples (if you count the lutz), so she could do a 7 triple program without the 3-axel. In the short, it's a little riskier to ditch the 3-axel, but very costly if she doesn't land it.
 

Frenchie

I'm gonna customize the CRAP out of this title!
Medalist
Joined
May 4, 2013
Mao just can't do the triple axel anymore (not that she ever did it consistently). Look how costly a botched triple axel was for Patrick and Dai in the men's event. The same thing will happen to Mao.

If you look at Patrick Chan's 3A, he still got 7.50 points for it in the SP (only -1 GOE) and 5.93 points in the LP (-2.57 GOE).
In comparison, a 2A's Base Value is only 3.30 (3A: 8.50).
So if Mao manages to land a 3A on 2 feet and with stepout, even if it's <, she'd still get more points for it than for a clean 2A.
The Team Event SP was the worst case scenario for her: <<, plus fall. She got 1.80 points for it, from which we have to deduct the -1.00 for the fall, so 0.80 points.
Her range is such that I'd say if she believes she has a good shot of landing a 3A< (2 feet, stepout) without falling and <<ing, then she benefits from it.
Her big problem is that she doesn't do 3-3 combinations anymore. I wonder if anyone can clarify if she's attempting them in practice from time to time?
Just a year ago, I'd have said she should forget about the 3A and focus on getting the easier triples clean, since she always got humongous PCS, even on nearly-meltdown days. But this seems to have changed this year. The judges seem to have drawn off their PCS love for her - same with Kostner and Suzuki. Gee, I wonder if the location of this year's Olympics has anything to do with that? :laugh:
 

CarneAsada

Medalist
Joined
Sep 17, 2011
Her big problem is that she doesn't do 3-3 combinations anymore. I wonder if anyone can clarify if she's attempting them in practice from time to time?
She occasionally brings out a 3F-3Lo that is usually around a 1/4 turn short. I don't know if she's improved on it, but she might attempt it in the FS.
 

Frenchie

I'm gonna customize the CRAP out of this title!
Medalist
Joined
May 4, 2013
She occasionally brings out a 3F-3Lo that is usually around a 1/4 turn short. I don't know if she's improved on it, but she might attempt it in the FS.

thanks!
I guess given how long she hasn't attempted one in competition, it would be riskier for her to try 3F3Lo than to try her (1st) 3A... Oh, well, I don't know, I just wish her the best! ;)
 

CarneAsada

Medalist
Joined
Sep 17, 2011
thanks!
I guess given how long she hasn't attempted one in competition, it would be riskier for her to try 3F3Lo than to try her (1st) 3A... Oh, well, I don't know, I just wish her the best! ;)
She actually attempted 3F-3Lo twice last season, at 2013 4CC and at WTT. Both received <, though IMO the one at WTT was undeserved. It's may be harder to get ratified, but the 3F-3Lo is overall not as risky in that if she screws up the 3F (as she did at Worlds 2013) she only gets hit with a < on the flip and still gets the opportunity to add a 2Lo later on, while if she screws up the 3A, that's it, no way to make up the lost points.
 

jenaj

Record Breaker
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United-States
I think Mao only did the 3-3 before they started scrutinizing jumps so closely. I'm sure she would have tried to add that jump if she could. I still think she should give up on the triple-axel, at least in the long program. Whatever 1 or 2 points she might be able to eke out on a botched jump will probably be lost in PCS. She should do the double axel-3T and a triple on all of the other jumping passes. With a clean 7 triple program, she could challenge Yu Na in the long and hope she makes a mistake somewhere to lose any advantage in the short.
 

AsadaFanBoy

Final Flight
Joined
Feb 14, 2014
Whoever delivers an inspiring and technically competitive program, having the skate of her life (clean) should get gold. Someone who deserves it, regardless of name or federation.

Mao Asada is my favorite, but which Mao is going to show up? A clean Mao would have a fair chance at gold. I'd say gold is between Lipnitskaia and Kim, with Kim having an edge in the short, but Lipnitskaia taking the long, and the deciding factor being Sochi inflation. Lipnitskaia seemed to be overscored in the FS.

Regardless of what I think, I want the ladies short programs and free skates to be completely different from the men's: I want everyone to skate her best and have the skate of her life. It makes for a great competition
 

Sam-Skwantch

“I solemnly swear I’m up to no good”
Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 29, 2013
Country
United-States
Whoever delivers an inspiring and technically competitive program, having the skate of her life (clean) should get gold. Someone who deserves it, regardless of name or federation.

Regardless of what I think, I want the ladies short programs and free skates to be completely different from the men's: I want everyone to skate her best and have the skate of her life. It makes for a great competition

I'm with you 100% here! :clap:

Welcome to GS!!
 

JYSkate

Rinkside
Joined
Feb 13, 2014
I hope my two favorite ladies skaters, Mao & Yuna, will hit to podium again. Seriously, they are both incredible! I'd say both artistically EXCELLENT. I love how Mao Asada is still the only lady to incorporate the 3 axel in her programs and her flexibility is brilliant show. I prefer Yuna's technique when it comes to jumps such as the 3 lutz and flip, but Mao is good with the 3 loop and axel. I prefer a lot of Mao's spins compared to Yuna's, but Yuna's speed is remarkable! I would give an edge to Yuna, like most judges, due to her overall package and consistency (aside from flexibility compared to competition), but I seriously don't get tired of watching either skaters. The only thing I wish Yuna would change in her programs this year is her lay back spin :confused: I don't find the position very elegant/graceful (it seems a bit dull and effortless). I did like her lay back spins when she was younger though. Best lay back spin I've seen with my very short history of figure skating is from Sasha Cohen. Mao does a very nice lay back spin in her SP this year too! Julia/Yulia Lip is phenomenal at her age, but I don't quite see the maturity and elegance in her skating yet as I do from the seniors like Yuna and Mao. I do like Gracie Gold's programs as well and her 3 luts - 3 tl combo is very big (though not always straight up in the air)! If I were to hope for a 3rd place medalist (assuming Yuna and Mao won the first two spots on the podium), I'd probably select Gracie Gold this time, though to be honest, I prefer Polina Edmund's jumping technique 3 luts - 3 tl (it's amazing like Yuna's!). I'm babbling so much blah I'm excited to see first who will win the ice dance competition. Seemed like Charlie and Meryl had the edge in the team event so I'm a bit worried for Scott and Tessa although I love both teams like Yuna and Mao. Congrats to Hanyu on his Gold, he really deserved it and I think Patrick deserved his silver though it would have been cool to see him bring Gold for Canada.
 
Joined
Aug 16, 2009
Welcome to both JYSkate and AsadaFanBoy!

This is going to be one tense week. I sure hope the ladies don't succumb to the tension as the men did, so we all don't get heart seizures every time someone goes for a jump. I suppose it's too much to hope for the kind of final we saw in Vancouver, where everyone in the last six did well, but I hope for it for the sake of the skaters.
 

Andre Smith

Match Penalty
Joined
Feb 13, 2014
The time is near. Wishing the best to all of the competing lady skaters! Especially, retiring Yuna and Asada, just enjoy your last performance.
 
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