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Thread: Lipnitskaya, Asada, and Kim: Who is most likely to get the gold?

  1. #61
    Size 7 Knife Boots Sam-Skwantch's Avatar
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    Sotnikova IMHO has better jumps than Gracie. Watch her 2a in the Russian nationals Gala Adelina also attacks her programs much more aggressively than Gracie. That said she still loses me in the presentation. I find myself getting bored in both of her programs and drifting away at times. She too even more than Yulia seems to just tick off boxes on a scoresheet. The thing is, I can't remember Adelina ever losing to Yulia on Russian soil. At the same time Adelina could go to pieces as bad or worse than GPF and no one would be shocked. Yuna is in good shape by going first and setting the standard in the SP. I believe this fact alone will control the inflation of not just the Russians but the whole field. My score prediction is....

    Yuna - 216
    Yulia - 210
    Mao- 207
    Adelina- 204
    Gracie- 202

  2. #62
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sam-Skwantch View Post
    Sotnikova IMHO has better jumps than Gracie. Watch her 2a in the Russian nationals Gala Adelina also attacks her programs much more aggressively than Gracie. That said she still loses me in the presentation. I find myself getting bored in both of her programs and drifting away at times. She too even more than Yulia seems to just tick off boxes on a scoresheet. The thing is, I can't remember Adelina ever losing to Yulia on Russian soil. At the same time Adelina could go to pieces as bad or worse than GPF and no one would be shocked. Yuna is in good shape by going first and setting the standard in the SP. I believe this fact alone will control the inflation of not just the Russians but the whole field. My score prediction is....

    Yuna - 216
    Yulia - 210
    Mao- 207
    Adelina- 204
    Gracie- 202
    I respect your opinion, but in my opinion, Yulia is the one who ticks off the boxes. The beginning of her LP is very captivating as well as the ending. But the middle section just involves her doing some arm motions and one jump after another. Just ticking off one jump at a time with some arm motions in between.

    I do agree with you that Sotnikova has better jumps than Gracie. Gracie's jumps are very sloppy and have gotten lower (I have been to both Worlds 2013 and US Nationals 2014, so I can attest to this), but her consistency with the jumps has definitely improved (That doesn't mean she's anywhere near Olympic Gold though, skyfly!).

  3. #63
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    Oh, and this is surprising, but at US Nationals, I felt like Ashley's jumps were actually higher than Gracie's. I was really surprised.

  4. #64
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    Here's a list of skaters represented by IMG. http://img.com/services/talent-repre...e-skating.aspx
    Gracie is just one of many. If she doesn't get a medal at this Olympics or win Worlds in the next four years, the general public won't be hearing much about her.

  5. #65
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    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    She would have to skate squeeky clean in both programs to even have a chance, and that would be a first ever for her.
    the moon would have to explode before Sotnikova can ever skate 2 clean programs
    this girl is destined to follow Kostner's route, though Kostner now has gotten more consistent

    Sotnikova is a late bloomer type, if she sticks in her 20's, I think that will be her time
    atm, Sotnikova is a headcase that you should never count on even if our life depended on it

  6. #66
    Missing Tdizzle and SDiggity golden411's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jenaj View Post
    Here's a list of skaters represented by IMG. http://img.com/services/talent-repre...e-skating.aspx
    Gracie is just one of many. If she doesn't get a medal at this Olympics or win Worlds in the next four years, the general public won't be hearing much about her.
    Thx for the list, jenaj.

    Agree that IMG is not putting all its eggs in Gold's basket by any stretch ... and would add that IMG always is looking for additional baskets that will be potentially lucrative. No doubt that IMG is keeping a close eye on Jason Brown and Edmunds, for example.

    Also agree that at this point, any increase in Gold's popularity among the general public depends on her competitive results. IMG already has gotten attention for Gold as an Olympian (and before that, as an Olympic hopeful). If she doesn't live up to the current hype of a possible Sochi medal, continuing to "sell" her will be more difficult.

    Quote Originally Posted by sky_fly20 View Post
    that's just low, wishing ill on a skater
    You are directly responsible for stirring up negativity against Gold in this thread. Your obsessive posts are detrimental to how she is perceived within GS.

  7. #67
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    The triple axel could cost Mao the podium as she has had so many struggles with it. Is it worth it to do something so risky and open the door to everyone else? With a triple axel that is not clean, she is just dooming herself to finish behind Julia and Yuna and maybe behind others as well. With a triple axel that is clean, she does stand a better chance but I doubt gold is going to come down to Mao's triple axel. At this point, it might be best to attempt a fully clean program (with no triple axel) and hope Julia/Yuna make some mistakes.

  8. #68
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    Quote Originally Posted by skatingfan20 View Post
    The triple axel could cost Mao the podium as she has had so many struggles with it. Is it worth it to do something so risky and open the door to everyone else? With a triple axel that is not clean, she is just dooming herself to finish behind Julia and Yuna and maybe behind others as well. With a triple axel that is clean, she does stand a better chance but I doubt gold is going to come down to Mao's triple axel. At this point, it might be best to attempt a fully clean program (with no triple axel) and hope Julia/Yuna make some mistakes.
    I agree about Mao and the triple axel. I now think the ladies podium is going to be Yuna, Julia and Gracie Gold. Mao just can't do the triple axel anymore (not that she ever did it consistently). Look how costly a botched triple axel was for Patrick and Dai in the men's event. The same thing will happen to Mao. She has a 2A-3T in the long program so she really doesn't need it. Mao also has all five of the other triples (if you count the lutz), so she could do a 7 triple program without the 3-axel. In the short, it's a little riskier to ditch the 3-axel, but very costly if she doesn't land it.

  9. #69
    I'm gonna Customize the CRAP out of this Title!!! Frenchie's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jenaj View Post
    Mao just can't do the triple axel anymore (not that she ever did it consistently). Look how costly a botched triple axel was for Patrick and Dai in the men's event. The same thing will happen to Mao.
    If you look at Patrick Chan's 3A, he still got 7.50 points for it in the SP (only -1 GOE) and 5.93 points in the LP (-2.57 GOE).
    In comparison, a 2A's Base Value is only 3.30 (3A: 8.50).
    So if Mao manages to land a 3A on 2 feet and with stepout, even if it's <, she'd still get more points for it than for a clean 2A.
    The Team Event SP was the worst case scenario for her: <<, plus fall. She got 1.80 points for it, from which we have to deduct the -1.00 for the fall, so 0.80 points.
    Her range is such that I'd say if she believes she has a good shot of landing a 3A< (2 feet, stepout) without falling and <<ing, then she benefits from it.
    Her big problem is that she doesn't do 3-3 combinations anymore. I wonder if anyone can clarify if she's attempting them in practice from time to time?
    Just a year ago, I'd have said she should forget about the 3A and focus on getting the easier triples clean, since she always got humongous PCS, even on nearly-meltdown days. But this seems to have changed this year. The judges seem to have drawn off their PCS love for her - same with Kostner and Suzuki. Gee, I wonder if the location of this year's Olympics has anything to do with that?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Frenchie View Post
    Her big problem is that she doesn't do 3-3 combinations anymore. I wonder if anyone can clarify if she's attempting them in practice from time to time?
    She occasionally brings out a 3F-3Lo that is usually around a 1/4 turn short. I don't know if she's improved on it, but she might attempt it in the FS.

  11. #71
    I'm gonna Customize the CRAP out of this Title!!! Frenchie's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by CarneAsada View Post
    She occasionally brings out a 3F-3Lo that is usually around a 1/4 turn short. I don't know if she's improved on it, but she might attempt it in the FS.
    thanks!
    I guess given how long she hasn't attempted one in competition, it would be riskier for her to try 3F3Lo than to try her (1st) 3A... Oh, well, I don't know, I just wish her the best!

  12. #72
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    Quote Originally Posted by Frenchie View Post
    thanks!
    I guess given how long she hasn't attempted one in competition, it would be riskier for her to try 3F3Lo than to try her (1st) 3A... Oh, well, I don't know, I just wish her the best!
    She actually attempted 3F-3Lo twice last season, at 2013 4CC and at WTT. Both received <, though IMO the one at WTT was undeserved. It's may be harder to get ratified, but the 3F-3Lo is overall not as risky in that if she screws up the 3F (as she did at Worlds 2013) she only gets hit with a < on the flip and still gets the opportunity to add a 2Lo later on, while if she screws up the 3A, that's it, no way to make up the lost points.

  13. #73
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    I think Mao only did the 3-3 before they started scrutinizing jumps so closely. I'm sure she would have tried to add that jump if she could. I still think she should give up on the triple-axel, at least in the long program. Whatever 1 or 2 points she might be able to eke out on a botched jump will probably be lost in PCS. She should do the double axel-3T and a triple on all of the other jumping passes. With a clean 7 triple program, she could challenge Yu Na in the long and hope she makes a mistake somewhere to lose any advantage in the short.

  14. #74
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    Quote Originally Posted by sky_fly20 View Post
    that's just low, wishing ill on a skater
    Because you have wonderful things to say about skaters, like Sotnikova never delivering two clean programs. Newsflash: Gracie has yet to deliver two clean programs, too.

  15. #75
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    Whoever delivers an inspiring and technically competitive program, having the skate of her life (clean) should get gold. Someone who deserves it, regardless of name or federation.

    Mao Asada is my favorite, but which Mao is going to show up? A clean Mao would have a fair chance at gold. I'd say gold is between Lipnitskaia and Kim, with Kim having an edge in the short, but Lipnitskaia taking the long, and the deciding factor being Sochi inflation. Lipnitskaia seemed to be overscored in the FS.

    Regardless of what I think, I want the ladies short programs and free skates to be completely different from the men's: I want everyone to skate her best and have the skate of her life. It makes for a great competition

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