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Thread: Who will be dominating Ladies figure skating?

  1. #46
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    Quote Originally Posted by jkun View Post
    HOLY CRAP.. Can I just not see a face and get a good laugh? I cannot begin to understand what you are freaking out at me over. Seriously, I like funny pictures. What is the problem with that? T_T.....
    Where did Serious Business go? That avatar... oy.

  2. #47
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    Quote Originally Posted by Blades of Passion View Post
    Pretty much. This next 4 years will be all about the technical elements. Actual choreography and musical interpretation will become meaningless because anyone who nails all of the elements will score at least high 8's in all of the components anyway. One of the Russian girls will likely start doing 3Lutz+3Toe, 3Axel, and 3Flip (or 3Loop) in the SP, which will push others to start seriously training 3Axel as well.

    After 2018 there will then be a push to start rewarding artistry again and components will start getting looked at more closely. The PCS factor for the Women's event will be increased from .8 and 1.6 in the SP and LP, respectively, to .9 and 1.8. This will be necessary to balance the value of the component scores against the now-standard heightened technical content in the Women's event.
    I'm sorry to say that I tend to agree with you. Ironically, I see the opposite happening in Ice Dancing: Uber!Drama! will top technical complexity. Ingmar Bergman on Blades.

    The other trend I see happening is what happened in gymnastics: the rise of the teeny bopper, who makes a HUGE initial splash and then fades out/burns out quickly.

    Not looking forward to any of this.

  3. #48
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    Skaters with 7 triple and 2 double axel layout, preferably with clean lutzes and good spins. This is very clear to me because If even Kim is tied with Gold in technical score -Gold fall on 3F- there is no way another 6 triple skater could pass that base value.

  4. #49
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    Quote Originally Posted by elif View Post
    Skaters with 7 triple and 2 double axel layout, preferably with clean lutzes and good spins. This is very clear to me because If even Kim is tied with Gold in technical score -Gold fall on 3F- there is no way another 6 triple skater could pass that base value.
    There is one skater who could have actually passed a 7 triple and 2 double axel layout with 6 triples. Her name was Mao Asada, back when the only triples she was doing were 3A, 3flutz, 3F, and 3Lo. (I'm not sure but I think her 2009-10 season layouts could do it too?)
    3A
    3A-2T
    3F-3Lo
    2A
    3Lz
    3F-2Lo-2Lo
    2A

  5. #50
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    Ladies need 3-3s of higher difficulty in the SP and the 7 triples FP to win at world/olympic events. Things like skating skills, choreography matter only among skaters of similar technical abilities.

  6. #51
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    Absolutely Sotnikova.

    She secure 110 PCS points.

    Just need 80-90 TES points for podium.

  7. #52
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    As of now I can see Adelina and Gracie having a rivalry. They are both technically talented skaters it will be interesting to see how the develop moving forward.

  8. #53
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    Quote Originally Posted by PftJump View Post
    Absolutely Sotnikova.

    She secure 110 PCS points.

    Just need 80-90 TES points for podium.

    I don't see her performing anywhere near the points she received at Sochi outside of Russia.

  9. #54
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    Quote Originally Posted by MK's Winter View Post
    As of now I can see Adelina and Gracie having a rivalry. They are both technically talented skaters it will be interesting to see how the develop moving forward.
    Just watched Yulia at the Gala. Unreal! To me she will be the dominating force of figure skating.
    The Russian media crushed her at the Olympics but she will recover much stronger than she was before.

  10. #55
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    Like the men, I'll put my contenders by country:


    Japan:
    Kanako Murakami (if she stays)
    Satoko Miyahara
    Rika Hongo
    Marin Honda (I don't know when her birthday is...she might not be old enough, but I think she is barely, just like Julia Lipitnitskaia this year)

    USA
    Gracie Gold
    Polina Edmunds
    Karen Chen
    Amber Glenn
    Tyler Pierce
    Angela Wang
    Mirai Nagasu
    Ashley Wagner

    Russia
    Adelina Sotnitkova
    Julia Lipnitskaia
    Anna Pogorilaya
    Elena Radionova
    Elizaveta Tuktamysheva
    Evgenia Medvedeva
    Maria Sotskova
    Serafirma Sakhanovich
    Alexandra Proklova

    Korea
    Soyoun Park
    Haejin Kim

    China
    Zijun LI

    Canada
    Kaetlyn Osmond
    Gabrielle Dalman

    France
    Mae Bernice Meite

    Again, many others we aren't even aware of...

  11. #56
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    Quote Originally Posted by CezarMart View Post
    Just watched Yulia at the Gala. Unreal! To me she will be the dominating force of figure skating.
    The Russian media crushed her at the Olympics but she will recover much stronger than she was before.
    I thought Gracie showed an attempt, an maybe even the beginnings of musical range, with her gala performance. Yulia, not so much, though she did show off some incredible skating. But her gala performance really showed that Yulia has to develop her relationship music. She might has well have been skating to her LP music. I think Yulia is a very good performer but she feels her skating, not the music. Adelina also made a good attempt with her gala piece to show her artistry but I was unconvinced.

    Anyway, I think these three are all incredibly talented and I hope they can keep it up and improve and keep up our excitement about skating. We'll have to see if Adelina can live up to her gold medal. We'll have to see if Gracie can continue to find consistency and continue to polish off the slightly rough edges of her skating. She basically has it all. Yulia, it'll be very interesting to see how she develops because she's only 15. But I think she will be highly motivated and, for now, I see her as being the one to beat next season.

    There's Polina too. She has a lot going for her. Great technique, confidence, and innate musicality. But will just have to see. 15-18 brings a lot of changes to a young lady's body. All my fingers are crossed for her.

    Who else is up and coming?

  12. #57
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    Russia, Russia, Russia.
    Despite what people think of the way the skating events were judged, the reality is that Russia now has two ladies with Olympic titles and a small army of talented girls coming up behind them. That competition is going to push all the girls to get better, and even if a few of them become victims to puberty, it only takes one to win a gold medal. The Americans have potential, but I don't think they have the depth. And I think we're going to see a dip in results from the Japanese ladies. There just doesn't seem to be another country set up to do as well as Russia in the years to come.

  13. #58
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    I had thought Kanako would stand on top of the podium for a while after the Sochi games, but Adelina's soaring PCS will probably sink most of skaters at least in 2014. If Elena makes a successful senior debut, it would be interesting to see how soon she gets close to Adelina and Julia's PCS. Personally, I love the skate of Polina and Kanako.

  14. #59
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    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    I agree it will be Russians, whomever that is. I could see Radiaonova being the dominant skater.

    I also dont see anyone in Japan right now. Even if Murakami stays she will never a world beater. Miyahara has potential but I also dont see her as World Champion material, well maybe a 1 time if she is lucky but definitely not a dominant skater.

    Osmond and Li I think still have potential but they sure lost a ton of ground this year to people who finished around them at Worlds last year. They obviously have to stay healthy, they have no more time to lose. They need to get better and build up their rep value immediately.
    I really hope it is Radionova who ends up on top. She doesn't have any Sochi scoring issues to taint her image; she missed it due to the age limit (thanks to Asada/Kim I have a soft spot for skaters in this situation). If not her, it could also be any of the 4 girls that made the JGPF.

    Japan's junior situation is not good but Marin Honda might become a contender.

    I agree it about Osmond and Li. Li needs to keep her jumps but massively improve her PCS because even her clean 7-triple skates get poorly rewarded. Osmond needs to stay healthy, stop falling, and keep her transitions, and Skate Canada will do the rest.

  15. #60
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    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    I agree it will be Russians, whomever that is. I could see Radiaonova being the dominant skater. She tends to handle pressure better on average than Sotnikova and Tuktamysheva, and she is a better skater than Julia or Tuktamysheva (I know it doesnt paint a positive perspective for Tuktamysheva to say that back to back like that). However they have others coming up who will probably be big in a couple years too. Someone who could win the next Olympic Gold might not even make the next Olympic team, perhaps more than one. By 2018 it will probably be the deepest a country was ever in for the ladies event ever, including even the Americans.

    The Americans are the most likely ones to challenge for major titles besides the Russians. Edmunds needs to improve and push Gold, and others need to come up too. If Gold doesnt have strong enough domestic competition to help her get better she will never make it to the very top outside of the U.S. Wagner, Nagasu, and the other vets are pretty much done. Their skill set is outdated at this point.

    I also dont see anyone in Japan right now. Even if Murakami stays she will never a world beater. Miyahara has potential but I also dont see her as World Champion material, well maybe a 1 time if she is lucky but definitely not a dominant skater.

    Osmond and Li I think still have potential but they sure lost a ton of ground this year to people who finished around them at Worlds last year. They obviously have to stay healthy, they have no more time to lose. They need to get better and build up their rep value immediately.
    I agree whole-heartedly on the Americans. I don't think Gracie Gold needs a ton of competition, but she needs someone who's just good enough to beat her if she doesn't keep on her toes. For her to have a serious chance, she has to have some level of dominance. I think one of the problems Mirai Nagasu, Rachael Flatt, Alyssa Cizsny, Agnes Zawadzki and an early Ashley Wagner had was that they didn't have a consistent target. They were all fighting on about the same level. U.S. Figure Skating needs something of a heirarchy to start building their program up again. That's a perk of the Russian system right now. With Julia Lipnitskaia and Adelina Sotnikova's European and Olympic results the past couple months, they have separated themselves from the other Russian girls going into the next cycle and given the others two goals to aim for.

    As for the Russians, I don't want to guess at who might be around for Pyeongchang in four years. At this point, if Julia and Adelina both compete at Worlds, I fully expect them to get three spots back for Russia. It'd be a huge shock if they didn't. In 2018, they could both still be around, one of them could or neither of them could – they'll only be 19 and 21, still pretty young in skating. Elizaveta Tuktamysheva needs to re-establish herself next year, or the Federation might pass her by. Elena Radionova looks nice, but I will not comment on her until we see her at a senior Worlds. The same goes for Anna Pogorilaya, Nikol Gosviani or any of the girls currently in the juniors. And, assuming she sticks around, don't forget about Alena Leonova. If Russia'd had three spots, she'd have been at these Olympics.

    If Kanako Murakami sticks around, she's got a shot at being one of the top girls, but she's really inconsistent. Satoko Miyahara is one I'm curious about, but again, she hasn't even been to a senior Worlds yet. I'm still reserving judgment. I don't think Zijun Li's going to be a top skater. I don't dislike her, but I don't think she stands out enough next to the other top girls. I'm not sure about Kaetlyn Osmond. As you wrote, she needs to stay healthy, and she needs to put together two clean (or mostly clean) programs on a consistent basis internationally. She does stand out, though, and she does have a powerful federation backing her if she can get herself into contention. If she can put the pieces together, she and Gracie might be the most intriguing prospects of all the non-Russian ladies at this point.

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