I definitely dont see Chan continuing and even if he does he will probably start going down with age and a bizarre coaching coach. Hanyu is the only one I could see dominating. Definitely nobody else possible. I think it is also possible Fernandez, Ten, and a few others all have a shot at winning major titles, along with Hanyu, and if he stays Chan, and thus nobody dominates. So in short it will either be Hanyu or an open competition between several or a handful of men with no dominance.
Chan is retiring. I suspect his Olympic experience has been too heart-breaking for him, I doubt he can get enough mental strength to continue and he'd be 27 by 2018 and that's really pushing it for anyone not named Plushenko. What would be the point? He changed men's figure skating forever, he has 3 WC titles ... why continue?
Hanyu will likely be untouchable in the coming years because his PCS will inflate to astronomical levels. He already scored nearly 91 PCS in his FS with two falls and sloppy presentation. He'll be 95 within two year and that alone will make him nearly untouchable without a complete disaster. If he gets the 4S down and improves his mediocre spins, then he'll be the most dominate skater ever. The only wildcard here is will his already shaky stamina hold up as he ages?
As far as other men of the future. Denis Ten seems plausible, perhaps Jason Brown, but I have a feeling that he's not going to master the quad so I don't think he'll become a major competitive force (though he'll be fun to watch). The current crop of men don't seem too impressive to me, aside from Hanyu and Ten. There are some young guys, people like Adian Pitkeev or Nathan Chen that have enormous potential, but they won't probably come into their own for a few years, probably after Hanyu retires in 2018.
I hope Jason Brown can increase his technical difficulty and consistency. I used to be a fan of Hanyu's skating but I'm less enthused by his skating due to uninspiring programs, lack of improvement in his posture and lines, and tendency to skate sloppy in his long programs. I felt he has been propped up in PCS recently, not unlike Chan. Brown has far better presentation, musicality, interpretation, better spins, lines, and overall refinement.
I'm curious about the wear and tear the next generation of male skaters will undergo. They're attempting more quads and training them at a younger age. On top of that, their spins levels are also high which can lead to injuries as well. I fear that many of them will end up with short careers.
I don't know why, but I have a feeling that Ten will do very well this quad.
Brown is like a month about in age from Hanyu. I guess it isnt impossible for him to challenge him someday but it would take a ton of improvement in basic skating, speed and power, and jumping difficulty, quality, and consistency before he is able to. My guess now if forced to make one would be he that he never becomes a serious rival (atleast not consistently) to Hanyu.
Originally Posted by miki88
Brown does not have better spins than Hanyu btw.
Ten is such an inconsistent skater. His miracelously having his very few great performances at Worlds and Olympics, and everyone else bombing at the same events, isnt likely to continue. Meanwhile if he doesnt get alot more consistent his PCS will never be up with the best. That he lost to Chan with how he skated at the 2013 Worlds despite skating perfectly is a pretty good indication what the judges think of him at the highest level that is.
I'm curious to know where this myth of "quads younger and younger" is coming from. Evgeni Plushenko landed his first quad at 14. Apart from Boyang Jin, I can't think of any other skater at the top level today who started them that young. Setting aside the Russians, I know of the Americans...even when Joshua Farris was being pushed by Tom Z he didn't start the quad til 16. Jason, obviously, didn't start the quad til 18. Nor did Chan, IIRC. I'd be interested to know when Max Aaron started the quad but I don't think it was before he broke his back.
Originally Posted by Srin Odessa
However, I'm in total agreement with you about the spins. The men are almost being forced to do catchfoots which is great for guys like Jason who are little rubber bands, but I expect in a few years we'll start seeing a rash of back and groin injuries from men forced to bend beyond their flexing point.
Missing Tdizzle and SDiggity
I'm sure you are correct that Max did not master a quad until after recovery from his broken back. TSL asked him about the quad timeframe, and IIRC, he did not give a precise age or year, but the answer essentially was his late teens, I believe.
Originally Posted by karne
And just want to make note that Jason has said that he was not born with the flexibility that he has achieved and in which he takes justifiable pride. From a young age, he has worked very hard on it and made it a priority.
Didn't Hanyu learn the quad at 15? Or was it 17? Or am I remembering incorrectly?
Originally Posted by karne
Forever stuck on those steps
15. He already landed one in competition in 2011 4C in his 1st senior season, when he had just turned 16
Originally Posted by lilahozi
He probably started training the 4S at 17.
Oh yes, I love that story, that he saw Joshua doing a Charlotte spiral into a 2A and decided he wanted to be like that too...and now the tables have turned, and Joshua's split jump gets less split-y by the year, while Jason hauls himself into increasingly eye-popping positions. Funny how things change. (Joshua's split-jump is still the second-prettiest in the US, though, just behind Jason's.)
Originally Posted by golden411
I think Yuzuru landed one in competition when he was 15. He's a phenom - won Junior Worlds at 15 years old and turned senior in the same year. Many people keep forgetting he turned senior in 2010, and has been on the senior circuit for 4 years now.
Originally Posted by lilahozi
I'd like to do it by country....namely contenders....
Tatsuki Machida (if he stays)
I'm sure there are others we don't even know about yet...