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Thread: don't retire now

  1. #31
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    Where is this bizarre assertion that if Kwan was gone we still have enough depth to secure 3 spots? That has not historically been the case. Let's review:

    94 - Kwan's first senior Worlds. There were only 2 spots for USA. What were the results?

    Kwan - 8th
    Bobek - fails to qualify

    95 - On the strength of Kwan's sole achivement in 94, there are two spots again. The results?

    Bobek - 3rd
    Kwan - 4th

    96 - Now we have 3 spots. The result?

    Kwan - 1st
    Tonya K. - 8th
    Tara L - 15th

    97 - 3 spots. The results?

    Tara L - 1st
    Kwan - 2nd
    Bobek - 13th

    98 - 3 spots. The result?

    Kwan - 1st
    Tonya K. 6th
    No third entrant because Nikodinov was out of the country and could not be reached.

    99 - 3 spots. The result?

    Kwan - 2nd
    Hughes - 7th
    Nikodinov - 12

    00 - 3 spots. The result?

    Kwan - 1st
    Hughes - 5th
    Nikodinov - 9th

    01 - 3 spots. The result?

    Kwan - 1st
    Hughes - 3rd
    Nikodinov - 5th
    (Our strongest threesome finish since 1991)

    02 - 3 spots. The result?

    Kwan - 2nd
    Cohen - 4th
    Kirk - withdraws due to injury

    03 - 3 spots. The result?

    Kwan - 1st
    Cohen - 4th
    Hughes - 6th


    My point is that without Kwan, the hypothetical 3rd US skater getting screwed out of their chance to be at Worlds would not have likely resulted in securing as many spots as we have had over the last several seasons.

  2. #32
    GOLDEN DREAMS RealtorGal's Avatar
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    I thought Maria B. winning the World title at age 26 and competing at the Olympics at age 29 (?) (along with 30 year old Todd E.) would put to bed the cries for skaters past age 22 to retire! :D

  3. #33
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    Originally posted by RealtorGal
    I thought Maria B. winning the World title at age 26 and competing at the Olympics at age 29 (?) (along with 30 year old Todd E.) would put to bed the cries for skaters past age 22 to retire! :D
    Praise to be! I'm not the only fan pushing eligible skaters into retirement.

    Joe

  4. #34
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    Can anyone who feels MK should retire explain it bearing in mind that Sasha and Shizuka will be entering their 20s soon, and have been skating competitions for sometime.
    Joe, for what its worth, Shizuka is 22. She's already over the hill, I guess :sheesh:

  5. #35
    Wicked Yankee Girl dorispulaski's Avatar
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    What if there were a Kwanless World

    Just to flesh out Skate Sandee's point a little more. Let's try imagining a world with no Kwan in it:

    The quotes are Skate Sandee's.


    94 - Kwan's first senior Worlds. There were only 2 spots for USA.
    What were the results?

    Kwan - 8th
    Bobek - fails to qualify

    If the third place US skater were here instead of Kwan, US would have only 1 skater for 1995. Instead, there were 2. I think the 3rd place skater would have been Elaine Zayak, who didn't have either the flip or the lutz. However, she landed all she had at Nats. I think she would have been out of top 10 at worlds.

    95 - On the strength of Kwan's sole achivement in 94, there are two spots again. The results?

    Bobek - 3rd
    Kwan - 4th
    With no Kwan, it is possible there would still have been 3 skaters for the next year. But it is unclear how the 3rd place US lady, whom I don't remember at this point would have done.


    96 - Now we have 3 spots. The result?

    Kwan - 1st
    Tonya K. - 8th
    Tara L - 15th
    With no Kwan, there would only have been 2 skaters the following year.

    97 - 3 spots. The results?

    Tara L - 1st
    Kwan - 2nd
    Bobek - 13th
    1 + 12 = 13, US just squeaks out 3 skaters. Without Kwan, Bobek finishes 12th.


    98 - 3 spots. The result?

    Kwan - 1st
    Tonya K. 6th
    No third entrant because Nikodinov was out of the country and could not be reached.
    Angela would have been 3rd at Nationals with no Kwan and would have gone to Worlds. We cannot know in this case how many skaters the US would have qualified in a Kwanless world. But given that Angela was 12th next year (11th with no Kwan) 5+11 = 16. Only 2 skaters go.

    99 - 3 spots. The result?

    Kwan - 2nd
    Hughes - 7th
    Nikodinov - 12
    The two skaters would be Sarah and Angela. The result, only 2 skaters for the US in the following year.

    00 - 3 spots. The result?

    Kwan - 1st
    Hughes - 5th
    Nikodinov - 9th
    Sarah plus Angela produce a Kwanless number of 4+8=12, so there are 3 spots for the following year.


    01 - 3 spots. The result?

    Kwan - 1st
    Hughes - 3rd
    Nikodinov - 5th
    (Our strongest threesome finish since 1991)
    Angela and Sarah comfortably secure 3 spots

    02 - 3 spots. The result?

    Kwan - 2nd
    Cohen - 4th
    Kirk - withdraws due to injury
    With no Kwan, the third skater would have been Angela. It is possible that 3 spots could have been secured. Or not. It depends on whether the Angela that was at Nationals skated at Worlds. And how Angela skated at Olympics. It was only after Nationals that she injured her shoulder, so it's just impossible to tell how it would have gone.


    03 - 3 spots. The result?

    Kwan - 1st
    Cohen - 4th
    Hughes - 6th
    Still 3 spots

    But in 2004, in a Kwanless world, the spots are taken by Cohen, Kirk, and Corwin. Amber has been very steady, and has a 4C's medal. She might conceivably have placed top ten or bottom ten. She's never been to Worlds.


    So here's the score:

    With Kwan: 94 and 95, two skaters qualified
    All other years, 3 skaters qualified

    Without Kwan
    94, only one skater qualified.

    95, 02, unclear, possible 3

    96, 98, 99, 04, only 2 skaters qualified

    97, 00, 01, 03, 3 skaters qualified

    So in a Kwanless world, in 5 years, clearly there would have been a drop in the number of skaters for the following year. (94,96,98,99,04)

    In four years, there would have been no change. (97, 00, 01, 03)

    In two years, 95 and 02, I won't estimate.

    So in general, Kwan has not impacted the rise of young skaters. Tara and Sarah steamed right past her at Olympics and Sasha is doing very well.

    The skaters that seem to be most impacted by Kwan, were not younger, but peers or older: Bobek, Kwaitkowski, Corwin, Zayak, Nikidinov, because when I look back, I find that those are the skaters that would have been filling in in a Kwanless world. Depending on any of those skaters to secure you 3 spots is very iffy, and I have given them the benefit of the doubt. In fact, I expect there would have been only 2 skaters in 95 and 02 as well.

    So Michelle! Don't retire. We need you. Having 3 skaters is very helpful in a lot of ways.

    dpp
    Last edited by dorispulaski; 04-04-2004 at 11:02 AM.

  6. #36
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    Great posts from both Skate Sandee and DORISPULASKI. So convincingly proved.

    Actually I heard the talks from the rinkside moms after worlds, they have little ones in USFSA's pipeline. Seeing MK's uncertainty, they worried about if she is going to retire, they say even if she want to, USFSA couldn't afford it.

  7. #37
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    Originally posted by Pati
    Joe, for what its worth, Shizuka is 22. She's already over the hill, I guess :sheesh:
    Pati - How dare Shizuka win a Worlds Championship at such an unheard of age. What about those poor sweet 16ers?

    Joe

  8. #38
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    According to the "Media Guide to the Judging and Marking System," distributed to the media and available for a fee in the arena, while the judging panels are the same for the SP and LP or OD and FD -- selected from those who judged qualis or compulsories -- only 9 of those scores counted for each phase and
    There is always a new random and secret draw of judges whose marks form the result for each part of the discipline; e.g. Short Program, Free Skating, and Compulsory Dance(s), Original Dance and Free Dance.
    The odds are very low that the all of the same judges' scores counted for both SP and LP.

    The only thing that is telling are the ordinals, because we don't know how the scores paired up or how many of the higher scores counted.

    My theory is that the judges were chomping at the bit to give Cohen 6.0's, but when her LP was on the lifeless side, they gave them to Kwan, partly because of the .com guy, partly because some of them probably didn't want to deduct for the time violation, and partly because the 6.0's were like money burning holes in their pockets. I didn't think her presentation at Dortmund in the LP came that close to her performance in Washington, and I saw both live.

  9. #39
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    Cohen's FS was not only lifeless, but she made two very obvious mistakes: flutzing so badly on her opening combo that she landed the 3FZ on the wrong edge and couldn't compete the combo; bailing out on and two-footing an attempted 3S.

    Not only that, but the program was very front-loaded with all the jumps in the first 3 minutes and all the spins stacked at the end. And the jump-laden portion of the program had almost no choreograpnhy.

  10. #40
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    Thanks for clarifying the judges panels.

    I think every competition should be judge on the merits of that competition, I am sure audience can and will compare MK's lp from worlds 2003, to her current lp and the current one may seem to lack the energy of last years, the same with Cohen's lp . SC's 2003 world lp was much better than the 04 lp. There is no way we can extract last years score to this years. Kwan received some 6.0s last year, relative to the rest of the field she was deserving, Cohe received some 5.9s for her lp for the same reason. This year both ladies lp were not as good, but relative to the rest of the field and each other I hav not problem with Kwan's 6.0s or Cohen's 5.9. Marks are place holders. If judges give Cohen 5.9 in 04 lp, they have to give a few 6.0s to Kwan.
    Last edited by gezando; 04-05-2004 at 06:28 PM.

  11. #41
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    I thought Michelle's 2004 LP was great. About the energy level, I think that missing the last Lutz brought down the audience a little, compared to the triumphant climax that element was, just before the footwork, for the same program performed at U. S. Nationals. Also, Michelle gets such a lift from the enthusiasm of the "home crowd" that her LP from 2003 Worlds and from both 2003 Nationals and 2004 Nationals really stand out as stirring performances.

    Without taking anything away from Shizuka's blockbusting performance, I have no quarrel with Michelle's 6.0s in the second mark, or even with the 4 judges who placed her first in the LP.

    Mathman

  12. #42
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    Originally posted by Mathman
    I thought Michelle's 2004 LP was great. About the energy level, I think that missing the last Lutz brought down the audience a little, compared to the triumphant climax that element was, just before the footwork, for the same program performed at U. S. Nationals. Also, Michelle gets such a lift from the enthusiasm of the "home crowd" that her LP from 2003 Worlds and from both 2003 Nationals and 2004 Nationals really stand out as stirring performances.

    Without taking anything away from Shizuka's blockbusting performance, I have no quarrel with Michelle's 6.0s in the second mark, or even with the 4 judges who placed her first in the LP.

    Mathman
    Tosca was more telegenic than it appeared in the rink. Kwan lost speed at various places during the program and had to regenerate it, whereas with Arunjuez, she maintained a fairly constant speed throughout. Also, she tended to cut the rink short a bit and the corners a bit on the shallow side, while skaters like Sebestyen and Arakawa filled every inch of the ice and they projected an amplitude that neither Kwan nor Cohen could match.

    I had always known that speed isn't something that easily judged from TV without context, but I hadn't realized until this year how TV friendly some programs are, and how others don't come across as strongly, because ice coverage and amplitude aren't as easily conveyed.

  13. #43
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    I think if Arakawa skated after Sasha, she would receive a couple of 6.0s for presentation, assuming Sasha received the same 5.8 - 5.9 marks. Overall I think the judges called it right.

    Arakawa deserved the huge standing ovation. I don't think Kwan was intimidated by SA's standing ovation though. I think the idiot streaker might have influenced the subsequent skaters a bit. Kwan said in an interview later that her heart was racing, thoughts of what if he had a gun ran through her mind. I don't blame her, considering she actually had a death threat in 1996 championship series final in France. From reading skatefans, some people who were there and are not known to be Kwan fans compliment that only a true champion could rise to the occasion like this. If I were there I would give Michelle an ovation.

    I wonder if the streaker influenced Ando's quad attempt also.
    Last edited by gezando; 04-06-2004 at 12:20 AM.

  14. #44
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    Hockeyfan: "Tosca was more telegenic than it appeared in the rink. Kwan lost speed at various places during the program and had to regenerate it, whereas with Arunjuez, she maintained a fairly constant speed throughout. Also, she tended to cut the rink short a bit and the corners a bit on the shallow side, while skaters like Sebestyen and Arakawa filled every inch of the ice and they projected an amplitude that neither Kwan nor Cohen could match."

    A FS is never going to be uniformly fast the way a SP is. There have to be variations in speed, or the skater wouldn't make it past the 4 minute mark.

  15. #45
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    Originally posted by hockeyfan228
    Tosca was more telegenic than it appeared in the rink.
    Well, I can't disagree because I didn't see Worlds live. I saw Tosca live at the Winter Skating Challenge, but it was hard to judge because of a couple of technical flaws (including a fall) and the generally conservative skating by all of the contestants because of less that perfect ice conditions.

    But about the telegenic part, WOW, was it ever! ESPN showed Michelle's short and long programs again last night. Every movement looked exquisite beyond belief in both performances. I guess the camera is Michelle's friend!

    Mathman
    Last edited by Mathman; 04-06-2004 at 07:56 AM.

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