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Thread: Going forward for Michelle & Sasha - the CoP and 3/3s

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    Going forward for Michelle & Sasha - the CoP and 3/3s

    Ok now that the women have shown the 3/3s are for real in major competitions, a 3/3 is becoming a necessity, or so everyone thinks. There's no question that Sasha and Michelle must seriously consider the 3/3 combo. That's what I thought but... maybe NOT!!!

    Has everyone forgotten that under the CoP, a 3/3 combo fetches the same points as the summation of its individual jumps. If Michelle or Sasha does a 6-triple program with no 3/3, and Miki and Shizuka do a 6-triple program with 1 or 2 3/3s, they all will end up having the same points, let's leave out the GOE for this discussion. In fact Miki and Shizuka will have more to lose since they are taking a much higher risk. The only way for Miki and Shizuka to beat Michelle and Sasha in terms of points for triples is to land 7 triples which Michelle and Sasha can't, going by the CoP rule.

    Now how consistent are the female skaters in doing a 7-triple program. Yes, a lot have proven they can land the 3/3 but 7 triples? To my knowledge, other than Michelle who has landed 11 in her career, and Sarah/Tara, none of the ladies have proven to be consistent not even Irina. Worse, under the CoP, in order to have a 7-triple program, one must land at least a 3/3 combo, hence it is very risky overall.

    So, here's my assertion, Michelle and Sasha are safe afterall without the 3/3. Please feel free to disagree and bombard me with rebuttals. This is based on my understanding of the CoP. Did I miss something?

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    Has everyone forgotten that under the CoP, a 3/3 combo fetches the same points as the summation of its individual jumps.
    Yeah. That has been true for this past season. But word is the points may be tweaked by ISU when it officially implemented. They got a lot feed back from many coach and athelter's during the try peorid.

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    Custom Title Joesitz's Avatar
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    As we all know, MK,Sasha and Shiyuka have enough Presentation to make them equal since the sport is decidedly subjective.

    The winning ticket will be Technical and I doubt if one can rule out 3x3s as very poweerful. The base score of a Triple Triple is going to be higher than a triple double. , and the grade of execution at this point in time, imo, seems to be Shiyuka's high jumps.

    Joe

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    yeah I wonder about that-if 3/3 combinations do not garner extra points, they may not need them. But, I wouldn't count on the COP not rewarding 3/3 in some way.

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    I just hope they don't get a whole lot of extra points. I'd rather see the sport's emphasis move towards artistry, rather than jumps.

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    Always Believed! Sk8n Mama's Avatar
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    I think the t-t is a necessity. There must be something in CoP to credit a jump in combo rather than separately and, if not, the Japanese Federation will surely lobby for it. Song long as CoP keeps the rules about cheated jumps becase both Ando and Arakawa cheated their t-t combos.

    By now, the t-t should be a necessity. The technical really hasn't improved in ladies skating since Yamaguchi and, really, even then, Harding and Ito had clean triple axels. Tara Lipinski had that nice tl-tl. They should be upping the ante a little, it's time. There's no reason why Michelle and Sasha can't do them-they have enough flow out of several of their triples to tack on a t-toe

  7. #7
    Sasha and Michelle must seriously consider the 3/3 combo.
    Why does everyone seem to think that MK is not seriously considering the 3/3? She's been practicing and landing 2 seperate 3/3 combonations in practice, and has said herself that she will need them. If that's not serious than I don't know what is.

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    Re: Going forward for Michelle & Sasha - the CoP and 3/3s

    Originally posted by apache88

    Has everyone forgotten that under the CoP, a 3/3 combo fetches the same points as the summation of its individual jumps. If Michelle or Sasha does a 6-triple program with no 3/3, and Miki and Shizuka do a 6-triple program with 1 or 2 3/3s, they all will end up having the same points, let's leave out the GOE for this discussion. In fact Miki and Shizuka will have more to lose since they are taking a much higher risk. The only way for Miki and Shizuka to beat Michelle and Sasha in terms of points for triples is to land 7 triples which Michelle and Sasha can't, going by the CoP rule.
    Something else has to be considered : the number of jump elements in the freeskate is limited under CoP. There are 7 for the ladies and 8 for the men. The number of combos or jumps sequences is also limited to 2 (maybe someone can check this).
    Of course, to get the maximum points, everyone will attempt the maximal number of elements. So after that, you can't compare a 3-3 combo with two individual triples : the former is only one jump elements, the latter makes two. In other words, the skater who tries a 3-3 has an extra jump element available to fill with another triple. So he/she is likely to end up with more points.

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    Forum translator Ptichka's Avatar
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    Re: Re: Going forward for Michelle & Sasha - the CoP and 3/3s

    Originally posted by alain707
    The number of combos or jumps sequences is also limited to 2 (maybe someone can check this).
    Yep. And only one combo can have 3 jumps.

    Actually, here is another thing to think about a 3T/3T combo would have a base value of 9. A 3T/2Lp/2Lp combo (like Irina does) would have a base value of 7.5. The GoE will be figured out accoring to the 3T anyway. So, a 3T/3T combo given a '0' for GoE would get '9'. A 3T/2Lp/2Lp combo given GoE of '1' will get 8.5. Given that arithmetic, are we going to see more of 3/2/2 combos for at least one of the jump combos?

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    Like someone else said we'll have to wait and see how they tweak COI as there is talk of giving more credit for combo jumps and allowing a skater to do more than 2.

    That said the other elements do come into effect more under COP. Jumps are risker and thus skaters don't always hit them so the non jumping elements which may be lower points but if a skater is good at them much more consistant point getter. Sasha probably had the biggest point total of non jumping elements of anyone. Not just because of difficulty but her GOE's were almost always +2 or +3. Those were points that were pretty much givens while jump points are up in the air depending on how she or anybody skates.

    The short program total is also carried over to the LP which is a big difference as well. Skaters who did 3/3's in the short still couldn't come near Sasha's point totals in the short due to how many points she got on other elements. She carried huge leads going into the long so that she could make mistakes or not do a 3/3 and still win. Michelle has got great spirals but her spins aren't as difficult or good. She's got up the level of those in order to score well in the short. Of course the component scores come into effect as well and I'm assuming Michelle would do well in that department.
    For the both of them getting as much points as possible in the short will be important. They need to get some cushion going into the long so that they may not need to do a 3/3 to win.

    It will be interesting to see.

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    I do think that, as we saw this past year at CoP events, Sasha tends to really do well under this system. She really adds up the points with the various in-betweens she does well, including spins, spirals, etc....I think Shizuka was the skater that came closest to her. Anyone remember if Shizuka was doing 3/3 all year in these competitions? I guess even if she was, I don't recall her doing 2 3/3 which could end up putting her over Sasha in the CoP if they decide to tweak it to really award those types of combinations. I do think Michelle and Sasha will still have an advantage over many/most of the other skaters with their presentation and GOE. But, they can't rely on that, and I don't think they intend to. I would bet that they are both gonna be working really hard to get a consistent 3/3 this year.

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    Something else has to be considered : the number of jump elements in the freeskate is limited under CoP. There are 7 for the ladies and 8 for the men. The number of combos or jumps sequences is also limited to 2 (maybe someone can check this).
    Yup, this is an important point.

    An axel jump is also required in the jump elements and that takes up one of the 7 jump elements. Without a triple-triple combination, a skater is limited to a maximum of 6 triple jumps unless they do the triple axel or a double axel-triple combination like double axel-triple toe or double axel-triple loop.

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    Originally posted by mzheng
    Yeah. That has been true for this past season. But word is the points may be tweaked by ISU when it officially implemented. They got a lot feed back from many coach and athelter's during the try peorid.
    I see. If they reward more for the 3/3 combo (I think they should, it makes no sense not to) then the whole argument in my first post becomes invalid.

    BravesSkateFan quote:
    Why does everyone seem to think that MK is not seriously considering the 3/3? She's been practicing and landing 2 seperate 3/3 combonations in practice, and has said herself that she will need them. If that's not serious than I don't know what is.
    I understand what you mean but to me if a skater chooses not to do it in a competition then they aren't so serious about it afterall, no matter how much they practice it. When I said "seriously consider", I meant, to actually attempt it in a competition. Both Michelle and Sasha opted out as we all know.

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    Wicked Yankee Girl dorispulaski's Avatar
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    Random thoughts on the subject:

    Well, let's look back to see who COP benefited:
    Jeffrey Buttle (no quad, no 3A that is reliable), great transitions, f/w, spins
    Liashenko (no loop, no 3/3)
    Sasha( no 3/3)
    van der Perren has a 3/3/3 but no quad, unreliable 3A
    Sandhu (great spins, fw, one quad, sometimes)
    Fumie (great circular f/w, but 5 triples, maybe 6/program is it)

    Plushenko wins all the time either system.

    People with a 4/2 got less points than people with 3a/3t

    So:

    All the girls need to look to keeping up the difficulties of their skating skills and transitions. That's where huge COP values lay.
    The 2R vs the 2T is a good idea
    A 3/2/2/ may be preferable to a 3/3 if you have any tendency to cheat either jump on a 3/3 (note Arakawa's problems in COP)

    Also there are words that 3 combos may be allowed with the rule changes. And the Zayak rule double jeopardy on a downgrade will be removed. In which case, Michelle and Sasha should consider:
    3r2r 3s2t 3lz2r 3f2t 3f2r whichever they are strongest on, and if you feel good, tack on the extra 2t

    Michelle needs the transitions back in. And keep improving spins (and they are much better already). And keep going with the speed improvements. I would definitely not count her out on COP

    Sasha needs to work on takeoffs and landings and not just air position. This year, the judges didn't penalize much for her takeoffs and landings and took into account her great air position. But even if the judges don't explicitly penalize her, there is a price to pay, because bad takeoff/landings make her jumps easy to fall on. A sports psychologist would be good, too.

    The time penalty is -1, not much in COP. AFAIR? But Michelle should still go for music at 2:35
    Last edited by dorispulaski; 03-30-2004 at 03:16 PM.

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    Tripping on the Podium
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    Originally posted by DORISPULASKI

    Also there are words that 3 combos may be allowed with the rule changes. And the Zayak rule double jeopardy on a downgrade will be removed.
    Sorry ... can you explain that ?

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