Going forward for Michelle & Sasha - the CoP and 3/3s

apache88 · Mar 29, 2004

Ok now that the women have shown the 3/3s are for real in major competitions, a 3/3 is becoming a necessity, or so everyone thinks. There's no question that Sasha and Michelle must seriously consider the 3/3 combo. That's what I thought but... maybe NOT!!!

Has everyone forgotten that under the CoP, a 3/3 combo fetches the same points as the summation of its individual jumps. If Michelle or Sasha does a 6-triple program with no 3/3, and Miki and Shizuka do a 6-triple program with 1 or 2 3/3s, they all will end up having the same points, let's leave out the GOE for this discussion. In fact Miki and Shizuka will have more to lose since they are taking a much higher risk. The only way for Miki and Shizuka to beat Michelle and Sasha in terms of points for triples is to land 7 triples which Michelle and Sasha can't, going by the CoP rule.

Now how consistent are the female skaters in doing a 7-triple program. Yes, a lot have proven they can land the 3/3 but 7 triples? To my knowledge, other than Michelle who has landed 11 in her career, and Sarah/Tara, none of the ladies have proven to be consistent not even Irina. Worse, under the CoP, in order to have a 7-triple program, one must land at least a 3/3 combo, hence it is very risky overall.

So, here's my assertion, Michelle and Sasha are safe afterall without the 3/3. Please feel free to disagree and bombard me with rebuttals.

This is based on my understanding of the CoP. Did I miss something?

mzheng · Mar 29, 2004

Has everyone forgotten that under the CoP, a 3/3 combo fetches the same points as the summation of its individual jumps.

Yeah. That has been true for this past season. But word is the points may be tweaked by ISU when it officially implemented. They got a lot feed back from many coach and athelter's during the try peorid.

Joesitz (RIP) · Mar 29, 2004

As we all know, MK,Sasha and Shiyuka have enough Presentation to make them equal since the sport is decidedly subjective.

The winning ticket will be Technical and I doubt if one can rule out 3x3s as very poweerful. The base score of a Triple Triple is going to be higher than a triple double. , and the grade of execution at this point in time, imo, seems to be Shiyuka's high jumps.

Joe

imanta · Mar 29, 2004

yeah I wonder about that-if 3/3 combinations do not garner extra points, they may not need them. But, I wouldn't count on the COP not rewarding 3/3 in some way.

Pati · Mar 29, 2004

I just hope they don't get a whole lot of extra points. I'd rather see the sport's emphasis move towards artistry, rather than jumps.

Sk8n Mama · Mar 29, 2004

I think the t-t is a necessity. There must be something in CoP to credit a jump in combo rather than separately and, if not, the Japanese Federation will surely lobby for it. Song long as CoP keeps the rules about cheated jumps becase both Ando and Arakawa cheated their t-t combos.

By now, the t-t should be a necessity. The technical really hasn't improved in ladies skating since Yamaguchi and, really, even then, Harding and Ito had clean triple axels. Tara Lipinski had that nice tl-tl. They should be upping the ante a little, it's time. There's no reason why Michelle and Sasha can't do them-they have enough flow out of several of their triples to tack on a t-toe

BravesSkateFan · Mar 29, 2004

Sasha and Michelle must seriously consider the 3/3 combo.

Why does everyone seem to think that MK is not seriously considering the 3/3? She's been practicing and landing 2 seperate 3/3 combonations in practice, and has said herself that she will need them. If that's not serious than I don't know what is.

alain707 · Mar 29, 2004

apache88 said:
Has everyone forgotten that under the CoP, a 3/3 combo fetches the same points as the summation of its individual jumps. If Michelle or Sasha does a 6-triple program with no 3/3, and Miki and Shizuka do a 6-triple program with 1 or 2 3/3s, they all will end up having the same points, let's leave out the GOE for this discussion. In fact Miki and Shizuka will have more to lose since they are taking a much higher risk. The only way for Miki and Shizuka to beat Michelle and Sasha in terms of points for triples is to land 7 triples which Michelle and Sasha can't, going by the CoP rule.

Something else has to be considered : the number of jump elements in the freeskate is limited under CoP. There are 7 for the ladies and 8 for the men. The number of combos or jumps sequences is also limited to 2 (maybe someone can check this).
Of course, to get the maximum points, everyone will attempt the maximal number of elements. So after that, you can't compare a 3-3 combo with two individual triples : the former is only one jump elements, the latter makes two. In other words, the skater who tries a 3-3 has an extra jump element available to fill with another triple. So he/she is likely to end up with more points.

Ptichka · Mar 29, 2004

Re: Re: Going forward for Michelle & Sasha - the CoP and 3/3s

alain707 said:
The number of combos or jumps sequences is also limited to 2 (maybe someone can check this).

Yep. And only one combo can have 3 jumps.

Actually, here is another thing to think about a 3T/3T combo would have a base value of 9. A 3T/2Lp/2Lp combo (like Irina does) would have a base value of 7.5. The GoE will be figured out accoring to the 3T anyway. So, a 3T/3T combo given a '0' for GoE would get '9'. A 3T/2Lp/2Lp combo given GoE of '1' will get 8.5. Given that arithmetic, are we going to see more of 3/2/2 combos for at least one of the jump combos?

LBC · Mar 29, 2004

Like someone else said we'll have to wait and see how they tweak COI as there is talk of giving more credit for combo jumps and allowing a skater to do more than 2.

That said the other elements do come into effect more under COP. Jumps are risker and thus skaters don't always hit them so the non jumping elements which may be lower points but if a skater is good at them much more consistant point getter. Sasha probably had the biggest point total of non jumping elements of anyone. Not just because of difficulty but her GOE's were almost always +2 or +3. Those were points that were pretty much givens while jump points are up in the air depending on how she or anybody skates.

The short program total is also carried over to the LP which is a big difference as well. Skaters who did 3/3's in the short still couldn't come near Sasha's point totals in the short due to how many points she got on other elements. She carried huge leads going into the long so that she could make mistakes or not do a 3/3 and still win. Michelle has got great spirals but her spins aren't as difficult or good. She's got up the level of those in order to score well in the short. Of course the component scores come into effect as well and I'm assuming Michelle would do well in that department.
For the both of them getting as much points as possible in the short will be important. They need to get some cushion going into the long so that they may not need to do a 3/3 to win.

It will be interesting to see.

imanta · Mar 29, 2004

I do think that, as we saw this past year at CoP events, Sasha tends to really do well under this system. She really adds up the points with the various in-betweens she does well, including spins, spirals, etc....I think Shizuka was the skater that came closest to her. Anyone remember if Shizuka was doing 3/3 all year in these competitions? I guess even if she was, I don't recall her doing 2 3/3 which could end up putting her over Sasha in the CoP if they decide to tweak it to really award those types of combinations. I do think Michelle and Sasha will still have an advantage over many/most of the other skaters with their presentation and GOE. But, they can't rely on that, and I don't think they intend to. I would bet that they are both gonna be working really hard to get a consistent 3/3 this year.

hydroradi · Mar 29, 2004

Something else has to be considered : the number of jump elements in the freeskate is limited under CoP. There are 7 for the ladies and 8 for the men. The number of combos or jumps sequences is also limited to 2 (maybe someone can check this).

Yup, this is an important point.

An axel jump is also required in the jump elements and that takes up one of the 7 jump elements. Without a triple-triple combination, a skater is limited to a maximum of 6 triple jumps unless they do the triple axel or a double axel-triple combination like double axel-triple toe or double axel-triple loop.

apache88 · Mar 30, 2004

mzheng said:
Yeah. That has been true for this past season. But word is the points may be tweaked by ISU when it officially implemented. They got a lot feed back from many coach and athelter's during the try peorid.

I see. If they reward more for the 3/3 combo (I think they should, it makes no sense not to) then the whole argument in my first post becomes invalid.

BravesSkateFan quote:
Why does everyone seem to think that MK is not seriously considering the 3/3? She's been practicing and landing 2 seperate 3/3 combonations in practice, and has said herself that she will need them. If that's not serious than I don't know what is.

I understand what you mean but to me if a skater chooses not to do it in a competition then they aren't so serious about it afterall, no matter how much they practice it. When I said "seriously consider", I meant, to actually attempt it in a competition. Both Michelle and Sasha opted out as we all know.

dorispulaski · Mar 30, 2004

Random thoughts on the subject:

Well, let's look back to see who COP benefited:
Jeffrey Buttle (no quad, no 3A that is reliable), great transitions, f/w, spins
Liashenko (no loop, no 3/3)
Sasha( no 3/3)
van der Perren has a 3/3/3 but no quad, unreliable 3A
Sandhu (great spins, fw, one quad, sometimes)
Fumie (great circular f/w, but 5 triples, maybe 6/program is it)

Plushenko wins all the time either system.

People with a 4/2 got less points than people with 3a/3t

So:

All the girls need to look to keeping up the difficulties of their skating skills and transitions. That's where huge COP values lay.
The 2R vs the 2T is a good idea
A 3/2/2/ may be preferable to a 3/3 if you have any tendency to cheat either jump on a 3/3 (note Arakawa's problems in COP)

Also there are words that 3 combos may be allowed with the rule changes. And the Zayak rule double jeopardy on a downgrade will be removed. In which case, Michelle and Sasha should consider:
3r2r 3s2t 3lz2r 3f2t 3f2r whichever they are strongest on, and if you feel good, tack on the extra 2t

Michelle needs the transitions back in. And keep improving spins (and they are much better already). And keep going with the speed improvements. I would definitely not count her out on COP

Sasha needs to work on takeoffs and landings and not just air position. This year, the judges didn't penalize much for her takeoffs and landings and took into account her great air position. But even if the judges don't explicitly penalize her, there is a price to pay, because bad takeoff/landings make her jumps easy to fall on. A sports psychologist would be good, too.

The time penalty is -1, not much in COP. AFAIR? But Michelle should still go for music at 2:35

alain707 · Mar 30, 2004

DORISPULASKI said:
Also there are words that 3 combos may be allowed with the rule changes. And the Zayak rule double jeopardy on a downgrade will be removed.

Sorry ... can you explain that ?

dorispulaski · Mar 30, 2004

COP allowed only 2 combinations this last year in the LP.

There were complaints from the federations, particularly after Plushenko's loss in the Grand Prix final when he threw in a third combination and it diddn't count. Three combinations are supposed to be OK next year.

Under COP, when a skater underrotates a jump, the caller may decide it is an overrotated jump of one revolution less.
So an underrotated 4t may be deemed a 3t by the caller. The same could be true of an underrotated 3t; it could be called a 2t.

The Zayak rule only allows 2 iterations of the same jump, one of which must be in combination.

So the following sort of thing would happen:

Suppose Skater A schedules a 4t by itself, a 3t by itself, and then 4t3t, This is all legal.

However, he underrotates his first 4t, which is called a 3t.
His 3t by itself is now a repeat of a single jump, so it doesn't count under the Zayak rule.

Depending on how the program is written, even if he performs his 4t/3t correctly, it cmight be called a Zayak violation since he already has 2 3t's., because he now has 3 3t's. And he might have no combination either.

There are a lot of screwy possibilities. The ISU is supposed to be fixing this.

Nadine · Mar 30, 2004

My thought...

Until COP is cemented in stone & ink, all this speculation is a waste of time - what everybody did this past season means nada when the new system is implemented next season - everybody starts over with a clean plate. And then that's when everything gets interesting (aka what new changes did the ISU vote on over the summer as regards COP???; e.g. more points for 3/3s combos., increased value for quads, points taken off for falls, GOE point taken off for underrotation, etc.). We shall see...

Peace & In a Contemplative Mood, Nadine

MODIFIED TO SWITCH: from speculative mood to "contemplative" mood.

Joesitz (RIP) · Mar 30, 2004

Look, the Ladies competition is no longer about Presentation or artistry if you want to call it that. Sasha, Michelle and Shizuka all have artistry. So has Yukina, Bebe, Suzana Poykio, etc.,. It's about the tricks. Who among these artists have the tricks? The message is clear to Sasha and Michelle - a gold requires 2 3x3s. That's the way it is. I see the possiblility of an Asian podium for the Ladies.

The Japanes Men and the Chinese Men have improved tremendously, the Chinese have a decent Dance (would you believe it) team. The Pairs are obvious.

Joe

citrus · Mar 30, 2004

As this is thread has CoP, I wonder if anyone know if the "instant replay" have ever been used this 1st year. Or whether the judges & techies didn't call for a replay because of the fear of being called not too competent a judge.

After seeing a couple of important replays in the women's nationals for basket ball, the same thought cropped regarding whether a replay have evern been used in figure skating.

In one game, it was a matter whether a foul was done after/before the buzzer for the end of the game. In another case, it was whether a basketball was thrown before the the half. The foul and subsequent basket determined the winner.

It also appears that the buzzer/horn is the primary for the end or the half/game, the referee's call is 2nd and the use of the TIME CLOCK was 3rd.

Too bad ABC didn't also show when the timer started for MK's short program as ithey did for the end of the program.

euterpe · Mar 31, 2004

CoP will not give credit for a 3/3 if the second jump is not completely rotated. There were several underrotated 3/3s at Worlds (Shizuka's in the SP and Ando's 3T3T in the FS). I'll be interested to see how the judges treat these skaters next year.

Going forward for Michelle & Sasha - the CoP and 3/3s

apache88

mzheng

Joesitz (RIP)

imanta

Pati

Sk8n Mama

BravesSkateFan

alain707

Ptichka

Forum translator

LBC

imanta

hydroradi

apache88

dorispulaski

Wicked Yankee Girl

alain707

dorispulaski

Wicked Yankee Girl

Nadine

Joesitz (RIP)

citrus

euterpe

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