Ashley Wagner's chances going forward?
I actually like Ashley Wagner quite a bit as she seems to be one of the few figure skaters out there that actually displays her personality off the ice. People may not always like what she has to say, but it's refreshing to hear a skater give something other than the trite, canned responses we've come to expect from them.
That being said, I know she's said she wants to continue competing for another four years and, perhaps, make another appearance in Pyeongchang in 2018. Realistically, what are her chances of making the Olympic team in four years? And does she have a legit shot at doing well competitively over the next four years? I like her as a person, but I think we've sort of seen Ashley push the limits of her skating talent...and to be honest she isn't exactly on the same level as the top tier girls. I don't think it has anything to do with her drive, ambition, how hard she practices, etc. I think, unfortunately, it sort of just comes down to innate talent. Ashley doesn't have the smoothest, easiest edges, her knees aren't as springy, she has a hard time getting that 3-3 to go down, etc.
Still, maybe she'll surprise us. What do you guys think about her prospects going forward?
I think Ashley should go back to basics, work on her edges, in the long run it will help her skating skills, jumps and spins (not that the spins are bad). I think she has a great coach in Raphael, she should stick with him as they have only been together a short time.
For me I'm not sure she has found the right programme for herself, her programs have been good, but to me they do not stand out. Yes she is a fighter, however she needs to make it look effortless, which IMO she does not do, so again back to basics is they key for her, especially if she wants to compete until 2018 .
I'm wondering if she would've placed a bit higher if her terrible nationals had not happened? I do see her UR's, etc.- but it sometimes seems as if she gets penalized for her shortcomings and others don't. I think at the Olympics I would have had it: Mao 5th, Ashley 6th, Julia 7th. I really do like Julia- but she's usually so good that at the Individual event I thought she was glaringly bad.
I'm not sure it's just her shortcomings as you put it. I think a lot of it has to do with her skating skills in general and the programs. I'm not rooting for any skater in particular, however if you compare Ashley with Lip you can see a difference in skating skills and Lip is still relatively a junior in a senior world. Lip program although not my fav is better constructed in term of transitions and choreography (I'm not saying I like it, I'm indifferent to it), Ashley had a few weird empty spots IMO during the second half of her program Approaching jumps, the last loop and the 3 jump combo.
Originally Posted by ranjake
I have also noticed that Ashley tends to have insecure landings on her Lutz (e) she hops out of the landing as soon as she lands it, to me this shows weak control, bringing me back to edge control (skating skills). Note; it was not only the lutz (e) I noticed it with.
This is just my opinion
Another four year Olympic cycle is a rough go for a female skater who's 22 now, but over the next year or so...
I think she has an opportunity to either hold her position in the top ten or move up, but it's up to her, because based on what the judges did with her score at the Olympics there's also a chance she could continue to slide.
They gave her an almost identical combined score as her personal best combined score, which could be a message that's the max score they're going to give her based on the current levels of difficulty and execution in her programs.
If that's accurate then she has to up her game.
She really needs to get herself back together over the off season. Her 3F-3T combo was always borderline, but I don't think she's landed a clean, ratified one since the GPF. The Samson program is much better for her than R & J, but I find this version to be a little sloppier/ lacking in refinement. She can't move onto the world podium until/unless she fixes some of her technical mistakes. The 2-footing/ UR'ing jumps has to stop for her to be able to compete with Gracie, the Russians, and their outlandish PCS.
Originally Posted by amc987
Agree and would also add in Polina. Polina's program is the most difficult of the three US women, plus she's not having any technique issues and the int'l judges liked her, so jmo there is *some* possibility of Polina passing her at Worlds. Maybe not a big chance, but some, and if that happened it would be devastating to Ashley's goal of staying in another four years. She'd be at risk for not making the team next year (and may be anyway).
It´s a valid point. All he others got an Olympics bump. Why not Ashley? (I felt she was underscored in the free.) I think if she is going to move up she will have to find something new in her skating. She has power, drive and psycological stamina. Now, time to find some new poetry or deeper meaning in what she does.
Originally Posted by KJGL
I forgot one thing. It´s not impossible. Look at Kostner. How many times did people say (including her) that she had peaked - a few times I think. Also, there could be a backlash in the scoring of ISU. Maturity may become more important that it has in the last few years.
I think there is still room for improvement: Hit the 3-3 when it counts; find choreography that suits her; try to get a true lutz and maybe repeat that jump in the LP / use it in the SP. She was doing a 3(f)lutz-3loop back around '08, so maybe she could do that, but just do it w/ proper edges and landings. I know it's a big ask but these are avenues she'll have to travel to get the respect of the judges and be a podium contender.
Judges are willing to reward her when they see improvements. She just needs to find a way to keep improving and stay relevant
I think you are right. She can work on skating skills.
Originally Posted by Npmonice
she could retire and focus on her so called Hollywood dream
where fame and money will be there on the spotlight always unlike figure skating
Impossible to predict what will happen in 4 years. I'm tempted to think that considering her age and level, eventually either injuries will hinder her or the US talent pool will deepen (or both), putting her out of contention/relevance, but truth is we just don't know. I wonder how many thought back in 2010 that she'd make the 2014 team (controversy aside).
Originally Posted by wootie
However, for the immediate future, I think she needs to take a long, hard look at where she wants to go and what she needs to do to get there. I know her season started out shaky, which killed any momentum for the Olympics...therefore, I feel that she needs a fresh start. I think she's leaving too many points on the table by not holding her spins and not having secure enough landings on the jumps.
I think Wagner's long-term chances will depend on a) whether she can stay healthy and/or motivated, and b) how the US talent pool develops over the next couple of years. For example, will Gracie Gold continue to improve and potentially develop into our best skater since Cohen? Will Edmunds maintain her jumps through puberty? How about Nagasu, Zawadzki, Hicks, and other US women in the mix? And how about upcoming young talent?
I will give Wagner credit for one thing: she seems to get fired up whenever people doubt her. Even if she is on a downward slope now, she is no longer the top American and is free of that burden. She'll go back to flying under the radar when all of the attention shifts to Gold, Edmunds and others. Historically, this is where Wagner has been most formidable...so although she has a lot of work to do, I don't doubt that she'll put in the effort required since she always has. We'll just have to see how it shakes out.
If this were a different country, why not.
But she is not going to maintain her top 3 status with all the young, new skaters coming in. It was tried before and did not work: Flatt, Kwan who were getting weaker and weaker as times went by (Kwan continued to be way way overscored).
I'd say, she does Worlds, can continue for one or two seasons (a la Jeff Buttle) and then retire two years before the Olympics. A medal at World would be a nice ending.
She still has some of the problems she had when she left Hughes. I don't know the reason she hasn't been able to solve them, but I am not one of those who thinks Nicks or Raphael have done great things with her. She imo will gradually drop in the rankings next year until a podium finish is elusive. I had thought she would quit after this worlds, but seemingly that is not her plan.