Ashley Wagner's chances going forward? | Page 3 | Golden Skate

Ashley Wagner's chances going forward?

louisa05

Final Flight
Joined
Dec 3, 2011
Yeah. Remember that in 2006, we had a World Champion who could do a triple-triple and a triple axel. That was the last time Kimmie Meissner made it big internationally, so most people's predictions for the next Olympic cycle were completely off-track.


And don't forget Caroline Zhang. She was going to be the next Kwan at one time. She and Mirai were going to join forces to conquer the skating world for the U.S. women.

I was not a fan of Kimmie, but I never saw her career taking the path it did after 2006.
 

R.D.

Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 26, 2003
And don't forget Caroline Zhang. She was going to be the next Kwan at one time. She and Mirai were going to join forces to conquer the skating world for the U.S. women.

Who would have figured that out of the Big Four that came up in 2008 - that is, Zhang, Nagasu, Flatt and Wagner - that Wagner would still be relevant 6 years later and everyone else would essentially crash? I mean, apart from Nagasu's great showing at 2014 Nationals she was basically out of it too, although not to the degree Flatt and Zhang were.

It's longevity, not talent that determines staying power...

We can't possibly know if Wagner will remain relevant all the way to 2018, but if she did, that would be one hell of a story. Even MK couldn't make it through 3 Oly cycles...and Cohen tried returning at 25 (1 year younger than Wagner would be in 2018) for her 3rd shot at the Olympics and fell short. Anyway, I do think Wagner can get at least one more season in. Next year could be a big opportunity for her if there is a mass retirement of top ladies after this season...

I suppose if Kostner can do it at 27, it's not impossible...but being from the US, it'll be a battle to even get on the World team each year (as will be the case in Russia as well).

I was not a fan of Kimmie [Meissner], but I never saw her career taking the path it did after 2006.

Honestly I don't think anyone did. But at the same time, it wasn't improbable or anything. She was only 16 anyway and still had to fill out/grow up.

I caution folks against anointing Edmunds for the same reason. She's 15 - we don't know how her career will pan out once she begins to grow up.
 

wootie

Match Penalty
Joined
Dec 21, 2013
Yeah, I think there's a slim possibility it will happen, but it's not likely. Although, as others have said, it's difficult predicting these sorts of things.

I think the biggest obstacle in Ashley's way is simply that she's not the most talented girl on the block. She obviously works very hard and has a fighting spirit (unless she's under extreme pressure). However, it's hard to imagine a world in which Ashley's skating skills actually get better between the ages of 23 and 27. If they're not there now, it's likely they're about as good as they're gonna get. So, while she's not a bad skater by any means, she's just not on the same level as the top tier girls. Now, if the other girls start imploding due to injury, mental health issues, etc., then Ashley has a shot at sticking around in a legit way. But judging by her somewhat stilted flow across the ice, clunky footwork, slow spins, and her lack of a true 3-3 combination (that is reliably fully rotated), it's just hard to see Ashley competing and winning going forward.

But you never know. She'll really have to work on her skating skills, loosen up her stiff knees, get more spring in her jumps, increase her speed across the ice, inject more fluidity into her footwork, etc.
 

Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!
Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 27, 2009
One thing to consider is that Ashley is healthy. Yes, she 22 and will be a year older than Sasha Cohen in 2018, but she hasn't had any major injuries and is relatively flexible all things considered. She also has maintained a healthy weight and her fitness level remains quite high, IMO.

This is exactly why Ashley is still in the conversation after the 2008 coming out party. Rachael Flatt dealt with injuries (and who knows how much of that is caused by overtraining), Caroline Zhang clearly has had some fluctuation in fitness over the years. Mirai has been inconsistent in training but a growth spurt/body changes also affected her.

To Ashley's credit she doesn't seem to be the type to overtrain and she seems to have a good sense of when it's time to call it a day (unlike Evan Lysacek).

Gracie will be the biggest threat, but it's hard to say how much of a threat Polina and Karen Chen will be after they settle into their adult bodies.

Samantha Cesario might have a slow-and-steady rise to the top, Ashley Cain can certainly move up if she gets more consistent on her 3-3 and her toe pick jumps. Hannah Miller has well-choreographed programs and decent basics.

There's a lot of promising skaters out there, but I can't say definitely AT THIS POINT that anyone of them will DEFINITELY overtake Ashley for the long run. Gracie is the only one I think that is a true threat to Ashley at this point. Polina has beaten Ashley, yes, but it remains to be seen if she has definitively passed her.
 

R.D.

Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 26, 2003
One thing to consider is that Ashley is healthy. Yes, she 22 and will be a year older than Sasha Cohen in 2018, but she hasn't had any major injuries and is relatively flexible all things considered. She also has maintained a healthy weight and her fitness level remains quite high, IMO.

Didn't we say this about Czisny in 2011? And she wanted to up her game, try to step into that elite ring...and the result: 2 hip surgeries in less than a year...

It catches up to you....eventually.

Not saying Wagner WILL get hurt, but if she doesn't (AND she keeps up her skills/improves), she'll have beaten the odds. JMO, YMMV.
 

Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!
Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 27, 2009
Didn't we say this about Czisny in 2011? And she wanted to up her game, try to step into that elite ring...and the result: 2 hip surgeries in less than a year...

It catches up to you....eventually.

Not saying Wagner WILL get hurt, but if she doesn't (AND she keeps up her skills/improves), she'll have beaten the odds. JMO, YMMV.

Difference is that Czisny NEVER was even close to a 3-3 even in her peak in 2011.

Yes Ashley's 3F-3T is 3F-3T<, but she can still can do the jump. I don't see her getting injured because she's trying to get it closer to that 1/4 standard.

You (not you RD, but just the general public) may hate the fact that Carolina Kostner was able to win medals with stripped down jump content, but it was clear that taking that slow-and-steady approach proved beneficial for her and she ultimately was able to do the 3T-3T and 3F-3T eventually.
 

R.D.

Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 26, 2003
Kostner could definitely be used as a role model/inspiration for Wagner moving forward...
 

Amei

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 11, 2013
Kostner could definitely be used as a role model/inspiration for Wagner moving forward...

Kostner was helped a lot by her artistic ability, and a country with a small talent pool, Wagner doesn't have either.
 

R.D.

Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 26, 2003
Kostner was helped a lot by her artistic ability, and a country with a small talent pool, Wagner doesn't have either.

Of course. This is NOT to compare the two in ability, but simply to point out that if Kostner can improve in her mid-20s, theoretically, so can Wagner. Will it be easy? No. Is it likely? No. But is it impossible? .... No.
 

heyang

Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 26, 2003
A lot will depend on how the other skaters develop and how Ashley develops. Based upon recent events, Ashley will have to make a major effort to not just maintain, but also improve her skills.

While I don't know how Gracie and Polina will do over the next years, they have definitely been a breath of fresh air for US Ladies - solid skills and charisma. Gold needed to get her emotions under control to gain consistency and I think Frank has her on track considering her performances at both Nationals and Olympics. Polina is a bit more of a wild card as she still hasn't finished her growth period.

Ashley has never excited me as a performer. She's definitely a fighter, but that doesn't always translate to memorable performances. While she's won 2 National titles, overall the US ladies have been very inconsistent due to various issues - imperfect skating skills, body changes, injuries. This was a factor in her comparative success. This does not mean that she did not deserve her titles - just that the field was weaker than typical for US ladies.

so, I will wait along with everyone else to find out how the future develops. Regardless, I hope to see the US Ladies become more consistently competitive at the World level. Both the US and Russia have some promising developing talented skaters while China and Japan seem to be waning. I think the next 4 years will be much more exciting than the past 4.
 

Amei

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 11, 2013
Of course. This is NOT to compare the two in ability, but simply to point out that if Kostner can improve in her mid-20s, theoretically, so can Wagner. Will it be easy? No. Is it likely? No. But is it impossible? .... No.

I'm not really trying to compare the 2 but to point out Kostner was in a lot more favorable position then Wagner is.
 

SimplyAFan

On the Ice
Joined
Jan 1, 2014
I have to admire Ashley's fighting spirit and I hope when she does eventually retire, it's because she feels like she accomplished as much as she could, not because of injury or losing favor with US figure skating.

My hope is that she will work on the basics in the off season and have better programs from the start. I'll be interested to see how she does in the upcoming season without the olympic pressure and with her personal issues (as someone mentioned above) a little more behind her. I don't necessarily see her sticking around all the way til 2018, but I think she'll go all out to make the world team in 2016 so she can skate on home turf.
 

desertskates

Medalist
Joined
Nov 19, 2013
I have to admire Ashley's fighting spirit and I hope when she does eventually retire, it's because she feels like she accomplished as much as she could, not because of injury or losing favor with US figure skating.

My hope is that she will work on the basics in the off season and have better programs from the start. I'll be interested to see how she does in the upcoming season without the olympic pressure and with her personal issues (as someone mentioned above) a little more behind her. I don't necessarily see her sticking around all the way til 2018, but I think she'll go all out to make the world team in 2016 so she can skate on home turf.

:agree: I like this!
I don't think I realized her parents were splitting up, etc when I posted earlier. But I definitely think that before she had the very singular goal of going to the Olympics and she has. That's a lot of pressure to put on yourself. I look forward to seeing what she can achieve in a less turbulent year, and I'm crossing my fingers that she stays healthy so we can enjoy her skating for as long as she wants to stick around.

:popcorn:
 

pangtongfan

Match Penalty
Joined
Jun 16, 2010
I think she has to win a medal at worlds this or next year if she is ever going to. And she has to gain some footing against Gold very soon, if she is even going to remain a serious rival of hers. I will leave it at that.

I also predict the 2014 Nationals is her last "bye" inspite of placing to any world or olympic event. She will have to gain the required place at Nationals anytime in the future. Now Gold might get such a consideration in the future if she ever even needs it (unlikely she even will need it IMO).
 

ingofan1

Rinkside
Joined
Feb 16, 2011
Ashley can just try and see how she progresses next season. There is Gold,Edmunds and Amber Glenn who has 2 triples in her long program and she is only 14.She said that she will be moving up to Seniors next year.There will a lot of competition for next season.Ashley needs to work on her 3-3 and improve her spins.Ashley is the not the most talented but hard work and discipline can get you along ways.if the most talented would win Chris Bowman,Sasha Cohen and Nicole Bobeck would be Oly. champions.
 

drivingmissdaisy

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 17, 2010
I think she has to win a medal at worlds this or next year if she is ever going to.

I think it has to be this year if it's going to happen. She won't face Yuna or Adelina, both of whom would likely (Yuna definitely) beat her. She will only face one Russian who is better than her, while next year she would face three. Both of the Americans can outjump her, and Akiko, Caro and Mao can beat her on PCS alone if they skate reasonably well. Next year might be slightly weaker with Caro, Mao, and Akiko likely gone, but again there will be three strong Russians and a few hungry Americans who can keep her off the World podium for good.
 

cooper

Medalist
Joined
Mar 23, 2010
i hope wagner skates her best and hopefully she will be reward for it.. i appreciate her effort and determination to get better..
 

R.D.

Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 26, 2003
I think she has to win a medal at worlds this or next year if she is ever going to. And she has to gain some footing against Gold very soon, if she is even going to remain a serious rival of hers. I will leave it at that.

I also predict the 2014 Nationals is her last "bye" inspite of placing to any world or olympic event. She will have to gain the required place at Nationals anytime in the future. Now Gold might get such a consideration in the future if she ever even needs it (unlikely she even will need it IMO).

I think so too. I don't see them making an exception for Wagner again unless she does something really noteworthy for once (i.e. winning a world medal).

I think it has to be this year if it's going to happen. She won't face Yuna or Adelina, both of whom would likely (Yuna definitely) beat her. She will only face one Russian who is better than her, while next year she would face three. Both of the Americans can outjump her, and Akiko, Caro and Mao can beat her on PCS alone if they skate reasonably well. Next year might be slightly weaker with Caro, Mao, and Akiko likely gone, but again there will be three strong Russians and a few hungry Americans who can keep her off the World podium for good.

I'll just be happy when that day arrives (US back on podium). Doesn't matter to me whether it is Wagner or someone else (Gold, most likely).

I don't think it will be Wagner but then again, who saw Sotnikova over Lipnitskaya in Sochi? I guess you never know
 

KJGL

Rinkside
Joined
Feb 24, 2014
If the scoring comes down from Mt. Olympus and levels out to what it was pre-Sochi, Ashley's outlook improves right away. Her score was perfectly aligned with her personal best.

But if the scores of the top skaters aren't scaled back some, she starts out the new cycle with a much bigger task ahead of her.
 
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