Ashley Wagner's chances going forward? | Golden Skate

Ashley Wagner's chances going forward?

wootie

Match Penalty
Joined
Dec 21, 2013
I actually like Ashley Wagner quite a bit as she seems to be one of the few figure skaters out there that actually displays her personality off the ice. People may not always like what she has to say, but it's refreshing to hear a skater give something other than the trite, canned responses we've come to expect from them.

That being said, I know she's said she wants to continue competing for another four years and, perhaps, make another appearance in Pyeongchang in 2018. Realistically, what are her chances of making the Olympic team in four years? And does she have a legit shot at doing well competitively over the next four years? I like her as a person, but I think we've sort of seen Ashley push the limits of her skating talent...and to be honest she isn't exactly on the same level as the top tier girls. I don't think it has anything to do with her drive, ambition, how hard she practices, etc. I think, unfortunately, it sort of just comes down to innate talent. Ashley doesn't have the smoothest, easiest edges, her knees aren't as springy, she has a hard time getting that 3-3 to go down, etc.

Still, maybe she'll surprise us. What do you guys think about her prospects going forward?
 

Npmonice

Rinkside
Joined
Aug 23, 2013
I think Ashley should go back to basics, work on her edges, in the long run it will help her skating skills, jumps and spins (not that the spins are bad). I think she has a great coach in Raphael, she should stick with him as they have only been together a short time.
For me I'm not sure she has found the right programme for herself, her programs have been good, but to me they do not stand out. Yes she is a fighter, however she needs to make it look effortless, which IMO she does not do, so again back to basics is they key for her, especially if she wants to compete until 2018 :).
 

ranjake

Final Flight
Joined
Mar 19, 2005
I'm wondering if she would've placed a bit higher if her terrible nationals had not happened? I do see her UR's, etc.- but it sometimes seems as if she gets penalized for her shortcomings and others don't. I think at the Olympics I would have had it: Mao 5th, Ashley 6th, Julia 7th. I really do like Julia- but she's usually so good that at the Individual event I thought she was glaringly bad.
 

KJGL

Rinkside
Joined
Feb 24, 2014
Another four year Olympic cycle is a rough go for a female skater who's 22 now, but over the next year or so...

I think she has an opportunity to either hold her position in the top ten or move up, but it's up to her, because based on what the judges did with her score at the Olympics there's also a chance she could continue to slide.

They gave her an almost identical combined score as her personal best combined score, which could be a message that's the max score they're going to give her based on the current levels of difficulty and execution in her programs.

If that's accurate then she has to up her game.
 

Npmonice

Rinkside
Joined
Aug 23, 2013
I'm wondering if she would've placed a bit higher if her terrible nationals had not happened? I do see her UR's, etc.- but it sometimes seems as if she gets penalized for her shortcomings and others don't. I think at the Olympics I would have had it: Mao 5th, Ashley 6th, Julia 7th. I really do like Julia- but she's usually so good that at the Individual event I thought she was glaringly bad.

I'm not sure it's just her shortcomings as you put it. I think a lot of it has to do with her skating skills in general and the programs. I'm not rooting for any skater in particular, however if you compare Ashley with Lip you can see a difference in skating skills and Lip is still relatively a junior in a senior world. Lip program although not my fav is better constructed in term of transitions and choreography (I'm not saying I like it, I'm indifferent to it), Ashley had a few weird empty spots IMO during the second half of her program Approaching jumps, the last loop and the 3 jump combo.
I have also noticed that Ashley tends to have insecure landings on her Lutz (e) she hops out of the landing as soon as she lands it, to me this shows weak control, bringing me back to edge control (skating skills). Note; it was not only the lutz (e) I noticed it with.

This is just my opinion :)
 

elif

Medalist
Joined
Jan 28, 2010
I think Ashley should go back to basics, work on her edges, in the long run it will help her skating skills, jumps and spins (not that the spins are bad). I think she has a great coach in Raphael, she should stick with him as they have only been together a short time.
For me I'm not sure she has found the right programme for herself, her programs have been good, but to me they do not stand out. Yes she is a fighter, however she needs to make it look effortless, which IMO she does not do, so again back to basics is they key for her, especially if she wants to compete until 2018 :).

I think you are right. She can work on skating skills.
 

sky_fly20

Match Penalty
Joined
Nov 20, 2011
she could retire and focus on her so called Hollywood dream
where fame and money will be there on the spotlight always unlike figure skating
 

amc987

On the Ice
Joined
Feb 12, 2012
She really needs to get herself back together over the off season. Her 3F-3T combo was always borderline, but I don't think she's landed a clean, ratified one since the GPF. The Samson program is much better for her than R & J, but I find this version to be a little sloppier/ lacking in refinement. She can't move onto the world podium until/unless she fixes some of her technical mistakes. The 2-footing/ UR'ing jumps has to stop for her to be able to compete with Gracie, the Russians, and their outlandish PCS.
 

KJGL

Rinkside
Joined
Feb 24, 2014
She really needs to get herself back together over the off season. Her 3F-3T combo was always borderline, but I don't think she's landed a clean, ratified one since the GPF. The Samson program is much better for her than R & J, but I find this version to be a little sloppier/ lacking in refinement. She can't move onto the world podium until/unless she fixes some of her technical mistakes. The 2-footing/ UR'ing jumps has to stop for her to be able to compete with Gracie, the Russians, and their outlandish PCS.


Agree and would also add in Polina. Polina's program is the most difficult of the three US women, plus she's not having any technique issues and the int'l judges liked her, so jmo there is *some* possibility of Polina passing her at Worlds. Maybe not a big chance, but some, and if that happened it would be devastating to Ashley's goal of staying in another four years. She'd be at risk for not making the team next year (and may be anyway).
 

R.D.

Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 26, 2003
I know she's said she wants to continue competing for another four years and, perhaps, make another appearance in Pyeongchang in 2018. Realistically, what are her chances of making the Olympic team in four years? And does she have a legit shot at doing well competitively over the next four years? I like her as a person, but I think we've sort of seen Ashley push the limits of her skating talent...and to be honest she isn't exactly on the same level as the top tier girls. I don't think it has anything to do with her drive, ambition, how hard she practices, etc. I think, unfortunately, it sort of just comes down to innate talent. Ashley doesn't have the smoothest, easiest edges, her knees aren't as springy, she has a hard time getting that 3-3 to go down, etc.

Still, maybe she'll surprise us. What do you guys think about her prospects going forward?

Impossible to predict what will happen in 4 years. I'm tempted to think that considering her age and level, eventually either injuries will hinder her or the US talent pool will deepen (or both), putting her out of contention/relevance, but truth is we just don't know. I wonder how many thought back in 2010 that she'd make the 2014 team (controversy aside).

However, for the immediate future, I think she needs to take a long, hard look at where she wants to go and what she needs to do to get there. I know her season started out shaky, which killed any momentum for the Olympics...therefore, I feel that she needs a fresh start. I think she's leaving too many points on the table by not holding her spins and not having secure enough landings on the jumps.

I think Wagner's long-term chances will depend on a) whether she can stay healthy and/or motivated, and b) how the US talent pool develops over the next couple of years. For example, will Gracie Gold continue to improve and potentially develop into our best skater since Cohen? Will Edmunds maintain her jumps through puberty? How about Nagasu, Zawadzki, Hicks, and other US women in the mix? And how about upcoming young talent?

I will give Wagner credit for one thing: she seems to get fired up whenever people doubt her. Even if she is on a downward slope now, she is no longer the top American and is free of that burden. She'll go back to flying under the radar when all of the attention shifts to Gold, Edmunds and others. Historically, this is where Wagner has been most formidable...so although she has a lot of work to do, I don't doubt that she'll put in the effort required since she always has. We'll just have to see how it shakes out.
 

Flaya

Match Penalty
Joined
Feb 13, 2014
If this were a different country, why not.

But she is not going to maintain her top 3 status with all the young, new skaters coming in. It was tried before and did not work: Flatt, Kwan who were getting weaker and weaker as times went by (Kwan continued to be way way overscored).

I'd say, she does Worlds, can continue for one or two seasons (a la Jeff Buttle) and then retire two years before the Olympics. A medal at World would be a nice ending.
 

Icey

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 28, 2012
She still has some of the problems she had when she left Hughes. I don't know the reason she hasn't been able to solve them, but I am not one of those who thinks Nicks or Raphael have done great things with her. She imo will gradually drop in the rankings next year until a podium finish is elusive. I had thought she would quit after this worlds, but seemingly that is not her plan.
 

leafygreens

Final Flight
Joined
Mar 7, 2011
Ashley is lucky to have barely made the Olympic team and gotten a team medal. She would be lucky if there was an implosion at Worlds and got bronze. If she wants to stick around because she loves to skate, that's her business, but saying "she needs to do this or that" is not going to help. She has worked two years on getting a 3/3 and it's still not consistent.
 

shellbell757

Rinkside
Joined
Feb 10, 2014
I think that given her past history and age, she'll be edged out by Gold, Edmunds, and other new up-and-comers in the next few years. Who knows though, she's certainly hung on longer than many people thought she would.
 

desertskates

Medalist
Joined
Nov 19, 2013
I'm thinking that this season may have been a rougher one for the Olympic year than she anticipated. A change of primary coach, change in choreographer, and a program she wrestled to make work for her the whole time. She has a good Skate America and TB, and came out fighting at the Olympics. I'm not going to write her off because of two competitions.
I think given more time with Rafael, starting out with programs she loves, we may see a stronger Ashley turn up next year. I'm not sure about 4 years, but I do think she'll at least be around until Worlds '16 in the US. I wish her and all the ladies the best.
 

composer

On the Ice
Joined
Dec 1, 2010
And who knows she may do a Kostner :) Although Carolina did have the the advantage of skating for a country with a relatively shallow talent pool.
 

R.D.

Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 26, 2003
I think Wagner's trump card over the other US women this past quad has been her consistency. Everyone else has been up, down, all over the place and she has provided some stability. How much is it saying that she was the only one to stay in the Worlds top 5 2 years in a row (we'll see if she can make it 3)?

You saw what happened when she lost that trump card this year...just a rather ordinary, above-average skater who was held up by her past triumphs in order to be selected to the team this time around. Even if Wagner gave Nationals her best effort she STILL would not have won. What kept her above Gold to this point was, again, consistency. Gold was still learning how to compete, but now that Gold has gained some consistency, she has bypassed Wagner and likely will never look back (she'll still need to watch her back for other up-and-coming skaters though).
 

Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!
Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 27, 2009
I'm thinking that this season may have been a rougher one for the Olympic year than she anticipated. A change of primary coach, change in choreographer, and a program she wrestled to make work for her the whole time. She has a good Skate America and TB, and came out fighting at the Olympics. I'm not going to write her off because of two competitions.
I think given more time with Rafael, starting out with programs she loves, we may see a stronger Ashley turn up next year. I'm not sure about 4 years, but I do think she'll at least be around until Worlds '16 in the US. I wish her and all the ladies the best.

Good stuff, thank you!

People are too quick to write people off based of their last competition. Six months ago, some were questioning whether Gracie would even make the Olympic team. Now suddenly she's America's best hope.

Not that this is an excuse, but probably worth mentioning that Ashley went through a lot emotionally outside of skating. Her parents divorced in the last year and I believe she also ended a relationship. I think considering that and plus the stress that comes with an Olympic year, she did pretty well.

I think Wagner's trump card over the other US women this past quad has been her consistency. Everyone else has been up, down, all over the place and she has provided some stability. How much is it saying that she was the only one to stay in the Worlds top 5 2 years in a row (we'll see if she can make it 3)?

You saw what happened when she lost that trump card this year...just a rather ordinary, above-average skater who was held up by her past triumphs in order to be selected to the team this time around. Even if Wagner gave Nationals her best effort she STILL would not have won. What kept her above Gold to this point was, again, consistency. Gold was still learning how to compete, but now that Gold has gained some consistency, she has bypassed Wagner and likely will never look back (she'll still need to watch her back for other up-and-coming skaters though).

All good points, which is why all the Ashley entitlement talk I've been seeing of late is pretty ridiculous. She definitely had to work for every placement she got over the years and when you opt to break out on your own so your parents don't have to pay your skating bills anymore is definitely NOT an example of a skater that is entitled.

As to whether Gold permanently has by-passed Ashley is likely, but not definite. My hope is that Frank will get her accustomed to being a winner and a metal contender. I think it was pretty telling in Frank Carroll's interview to Michelle Kwan that his mantra with Gracie was for her to skate clean not to focus on medals. How will she do now that she's in this new position as America's No. 1 at Worlds? We shall see!
 

hippomoomin

Record Breaker
Joined
Oct 30, 2012
To me Wagner has reached her true potential. She won't go forward unless other skaters go backwards. She benefited from her strong personality and consistency. At home she has Gracie and Edmund, and internationally, it's a little better since the top ladies are going to retire. But in 4 years, I bet at least two Russian skaters are going to be very consistent in competitions. I think in an interview she mentioned that the feeling of being in Sochi made her decide to continue another 4 years. Not sure what that means exactly.
 

R.D.

Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 26, 2003
People are too quick to write people off based of their last competition. Six months ago, some were questioning whether Gracie would even make the Olympic team. Now suddenly she's America's best hope.

I wasn't one of them - I was consistent in saying that if she could get it together, she'd be a more promising medal hope for us in Sochi than Wagner, and the way events played out proved this to be right (even though she came up short).

As to whether Gold permanently has by-passed Ashley is likely, but not definite. My hope is that Frank will get her accustomed to being a winner and a metal contender. I think it was pretty telling in Frank Carroll's interview to Michelle Kwan that his mantra with Gracie was for her to skate clean not to focus on medals. How will she do now that she's in this new position as America's No. 1 at Worlds? We shall see!

Gold's performance at Worlds is critical. It really is. This is her time to make a statement and a legit chance to get onto the world podium. But, like I always say, it's harder staying on top than it is getting there. I'll be interested to see how she handles the pressure of defending a title next year.

And yes, it's possible that I'm speaking too soon when I say that Gold has forever passed Wagner - because there are still many variables in play that could swing the pendulum back around. But I don't see that happening unless a) injury occurs or b) her old demons return.

Honestly though, you never know.

I think in an interview [Wagner] mentioned that the feeling of being in Sochi made her decide to continue another 4 years. Not sure what that means exactly.

I was wondering as well. But I think the Olympics are more than medals to the vast majority of athletes. It seems like quite the experience and honor to simply take part in what is essentially a sport festival. I can understand Wagner wanting that experience a 2nd time, just like Nagasu did (and seeing how devastated she was when finding out she didn't make it).
 
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