Ashley Wagner's chances going forward?

Blades of Passion · Apr 8, 2014

concorde said:
To be on the podium, she needs 3/3.

A 3/3 is not "needed" to get on the podium.

If someone has the best spins, best footwork, best PCS, and all of the Triples without a 3/3, they will be on the podium or even be a World Champion.

Given Ashley's abilities, the absolute best thing to do would be forget about the 3/3 in the LP. She needs to work on her basics, work on her spins, and get two programs that show her off as the most mature and interesting skater in the Ladies field (with CoP transitions).

minze · Apr 8, 2014

Blades of Passion said:
A 3/3 is not "needed" to get on the podium.

If someone has the best spins, best footwork, best PCS, and all of the Triples without a 3/3, they will be on the podium or even be a World Champion.

Given Ashley's abilities, the absolute best thing to do would be forget about the 3/3 in the LP. She needs to work on her basics, work on her spins, and get two programs that show her off as the most mature and interesting skater in the Ladies field (with CoP transitions).

BOP would you advise her to go back to Philip Mills and ask for forgiveness. Or continue to experiment with new choreographers.

Blades of Passion · Apr 9, 2014

I would advise her to work with me. Nobody else is going to put the same level of thought into her programs and I would be able to work with her every day, since she trains near me. My fee isn't high either. What a deal.

sk8in · Apr 9, 2014

Blades of Passion said:
A 3/3 is not "needed" to get on the podium.

If someone has the best spins, best footwork, best PCS, and all of the Triples without a 3/3, they will be on the podium or even be a World Champion.

Given Ashley's abilities, the absolute best thing to do would be forget about the 3/3 in the LP. She needs to work on her basics, work on her spins, and get two programs that show her off as the most mature and interesting skater in the Ladies field (with CoP transitions).

Yeah, well and Ashley landed a jump combination that neither Gracie nor Mao could land at worlds, the double axel triple! Probably the only time Ashley will ever be able to say that, but still! It is pretty funny how things can work out. If a skater works the point system to the best of their abilities they can definitely be competitive.

Globetrotter · Apr 9, 2014

Amei said:
Kostner was helped a lot by her artistic ability, and a country with a small talent pool, Wagner doesn't have either.

I think we also need to note that Caro Kostner has one of the best basic skating skills and great deep edge control which gives her the speed and ice presence. Ashley IMHO does not have Kostners basic skills even if there isn't a deep talent pool. It was Kostners basic skills that allowed her the artistry development and great footwork. It was kinda like Kwan who although not a strong jumper had good edge work and footwork.

Jammers · Apr 9, 2014

Blades of Passion said:
A 3/3 is not "needed" to get on the podium.

If someone has the best spins, best footwork, best PCS, and all of the Triples without a 3/3, they will be on the podium or even be a World Champion.

Given Ashley's abilities, the absolute best thing to do would be forget about the 3/3 in the LP. She needs to work on her basics, work on her spins, and get two programs that show her off as the most mature and interesting skater in the Ladies field (with CoP transitions).

Ashley needs a 3/3 combo to stay relevant simple as that. This isn't 2011 when the jump difficulty was comparable to 1988. Even clean Ashley still didn't break 130 points and she simply isn't good enough in her overall skating such as spins and footwork to threaten the other girls especially if they are nailing their 3-3's.

Mrs. P · Apr 9, 2014

Ashley was not completely clean. She had two URs. She lost 2.96 points in BV from those two jumping passes as well as some -GOE (1.41).

Had she had those two jumping passes clean, her base value would have been 59.69, which is actually close to a competitive BV (60-61 seems to be the standard).

Had she simply got the BV for those two jumping passes she would have gained an extra 4.37 points.

129.53 + 4.37 = 133.9. She would have been second in the FS and beat Anna P. and Gracie Gold for 4th place.

Which goes to show that Ashley's best strategy is indeed in execution. She has lost a lot of +GOE because she is not executing the programs fully. She needs to boost the +GOE and be consistent on her key jumps.

JayW · Apr 9, 2014

Why UR is so difficult to correct? There are so many chronically under rotaters nowadays!

jkun · Apr 9, 2014

JayW said:
Why UR is so difficult to correct? There are so many chronically under rotaters nowadays!

Haha.. I mean... you do have to work against basically every physical force which tries to make you fail.

jkun · Apr 9, 2014

Mrs. P said:
Ashley was not completely clean. She had two URs. She lost 2.96 points in BV from those two jumping passes as well as some -GOE (1.41).

Had she had those two jumping passes clean, her base value would have been 59.69, which is actually close to a competitive BV (60-61 seems to be the standard).

Had she simply got the BV for those two jumping passes she would have gained an extra 4.37 points.

129.53 + 4.37 = 133.9. She would have been second in the FS and beat Anna P. and Gracie Gold for 4th place.

Which goes to show that Ashley's best strategy is indeed in execution. She has lost a lot of +GOE because she is not executing the programs fully. She needs to boost the +GOE and be consistent on her key jumps.

Yep! she should go for a program similar to Carolina's sochi FS. No 3-3, a 2A-3T in order to get 7 triples in.

FlattFan · Apr 9, 2014

jkun said:
Yep! she should go for a program similar to Carolina's sochi FS. No 3-3, a 2A-3T in order to get 7 triples in.

Haha, quite delusional to think Ashley can be Carolina Kostner.
A skaters' skater isn't someone you can emulate. You don't wake up one day becoming Carolina Kostner, Mao Asada, Yuna Kim, etc... You are born with it.

Sam-Skwantch · Apr 9, 2014

JayW said:
Why UR is so difficult to correct? There are so many chronically under rotaters nowadays!

Yet tons of critiscm handed out for fully rotated "little" jumpers.

minze · Apr 9, 2014

jkun said:
Yep! she should go for a program similar to Carolina's sochi FS. No 3-3, a 2A-3T in order to get 7 triples in.

I think one thing most of us agree on is that Ashley does not have the skating skills of Carolina Kostner. We know it, the judges know it.

Ashley has Many obstacles to overcome this season:

Perception: the judges have found the replacements of the top three girls in their heart and Ashley is not it. If everything stays the same with Yulia (her consistency, technical ability and improvement in artistry she will always beat Ashley.
The judges don't hold Ashley in the pedestal they did last season.
Ashley needed to make the podium this year, to repair some of the damage done to her reputation.

Gracie Gold: is her second obstacle, Gracie has improved a lot, she is a better competitor now. With Yuna Kim retired, some commentators (British) said her 3-3 is the best of the ladies. Gracie has one thing that sets her apart from other competitors. Technical skills.

The Russians: Does anybody foresee the Russians off the podium (they have a deeper field than Japan ever did). Even if one struggles they have more coming for the podium. You might not like their skating, but technically, they got it.

Ashley needs something that sets her apart from the rest. Ashley is good (solid), but not above the rest at anything.

But to be fair to Ashley, if anyone can overcome all of those obstacles is Ashley. She is a fighter, she likes to win. She will not go out without a fight

drivingmissdaisy · Apr 9, 2014

Minze2001 said:
But to be fair to Ashley, if anyone can overcome all of those obstacles is Ashley. She is a fighter, she likes to win. She will not go out without a fight

If she can execute a 3 triple SP and 7 triple LP (even with a 2A-3T) she will be in good shape and should be the top American unless Gracie improves substantially. However, there is just something about the 3-3 that is hard for Ashley. Even the early season attempts could have easily been < with a moderately strict panel. At this point I don't see her being able to do anything more than a 6 triple LP squeaky clean, but that isn't enough to top a clean Gracie.

TripleToe · Apr 9, 2014

I think It's kinda concerned that lot of skaters did poorly in the last international competitions and yet Wagner couldn't catch them, not even her consistency was enough, people with two falls and really bad skates scored way higher, She wasn't even close to their scores. but I won't count her out just yet. even tho I think She's close to her limit as skater. but We will see

I never guarantee anything

amc987 · Apr 9, 2014

drivingmissdaisy said:
If she can execute a 3 triple SP and 7 triple LP (even with a 2A-3T) she will be in good shape and should be the top American unless Gracie improves substantially. However, there is just something about the 3-3 that is hard for Ashley. Even the early season attempts could have easily been < with a moderately strict panel. At this point I don't see her being able to do anything more than a 6 triple LP squeaky clean, but that isn't enough to top a clean Gracie.

Ehh, I don't know. I think she might need the 3-3 to beat a clean Gracie. Gracie's PCS are basically on par with Ashley's. I think that's ridiculous, but the judges have clearly sent their message.

As for the 3-3, I think her problems stem from her technique on the flip/ toe loop. She isn't the fastest rotator in the air and I don't know that she gets enough force with her toe pick to launch herself high enough to fully rotate the 3T. It doesn't help that Ashley's landings on her flip can be a little wonky. If you watch Gracie, Yuna, or one of the Russian skaters, they seem like they're able to get the 3T off even if the landing on their first jump (3Z or 3F) isn't perfect. Ashley has a similar problem on the 2A-3T although the one she did at Worlds looked way better than her 3Ts on the backend of her 3F-3T combo have. As others have suggested, Ashley might have more success if she tried a 3F-3Lo (because her 3Lo is technically more sound than her 3T), but that's a much harder combination to execute (you have no chance if your 3F landing isn't perfect) and get ratified (it's either pre-rotated or UR).

desertskates · Apr 9, 2014

I kind of wonder about a 3loop-3loop for Ashley. It's a very sound jump for her.

CanadianSkaterGuy · Apr 9, 2014

Mrs. P said:
Ashley was not completely clean. She had two URs. She lost 2.96 points in BV from those two jumping passes as well as some -GOE (1.41).

Had she had those two jumping passes clean, her base value would have been 59.69, which is actually close to a competitive BV (60-61 seems to be the standard).

Had she simply got the BV for those two jumping passes she would have gained an extra 4.37 points.

129.53 + 4.37 = 133.9. She would have been second in the FS and beat Anna P. and Gracie Gold for 4th place.

Which goes to show that Ashley's best strategy is indeed in execution. She has lost a lot of +GOE because she is not executing the programs fully. She needs to boost the +GOE and be consistent on her key jumps.

Agreed. She's just shy on her rotations sometimes. Had her 3F or -3T actually been as clean as she could do it, she'd be 5th, and as you said, she would have been 4th if both were fully rotated.

alicetang · Apr 9, 2014

ashley mainly needs to improve on her jumps in general because as long as a skater doesn't have the large elements completely down, they're always going to be at least 1 goe point behind the person who can do decent jumps
she has a lot of confidence on the ice which she can definitely use to her advantage if she became more consistent and solid in general
i could see ashley in the top 3 for usa ladies over the next few years if she really takes care to improve her weak points (skating skills like everyone said, jumps, etc) but international ladies figure skating is changing really dramatically and someday there's going to be the point when ashley can't rise above the new stars :-// but when exactly that is, nobody knows (oh)

GGoldberg · Apr 9, 2014

Her triple flip triple loop was amazing back in 2007

Ashley Wagner's chances going forward?

Blades of Passion

Skating is Art, if you let it be

minze

Blades of Passion

Skating is Art, if you let it be

sk8in

Match Penalty

Globetrotter

Jammers

Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!

JayW

jkun

jkun

FlattFan

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Sam-Skwantch

“I solemnly swear I’m up to no good”

minze

drivingmissdaisy

TripleToe

amc987

desertskates

CanadianSkaterGuy

alicetang

GGoldberg

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