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Thread: Ashley Wagner's chances going forward?

  1. #91
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    Quote Originally Posted by ClockwiseSpinner View Post
    Sorry... but how can you make a comparison between Wagner and Kostner?

    Wagner never had a real 3-3, she never won a major international title, she's not special artistically.
    Kostner was doing incredible 3-3 (and even more like 3-3-2) since she was a teenager, she has always had top qualities in skating (speed, jumps, flow). That's what brought her to win several world medals, and later to become world champion and olympic medalist.

    I actually like Wagner, I think she has some good spirit in skating and she is: solid.
    But she doesn't have the talent the top skaters have. She just doesn't.
    She may still win a medal if others fall at these post-olympic worlds.
    Pretty much spot on. I like Wagner but there seems to be a sense of fantasy and unrealism from some of her fans. I do think she can medal here or at next years worlds but she must skate letter perfect and have several others fall. She had better win a world medal soon if she ever going to, as after next year her window will pretty much be slammed shut.

  2. #92
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    Quote Originally Posted by juppiter View Post
    Ashley is done. What she lacked in fundamentals, she made up for in consistency. You can learn consistency, and Kostner is an inspiration to us all, but you can't re-learn fundamentals. The fact is, the 3-3 has become a "sine qua non" for the ladies as much as the Quad has for the men. Ashley doesn't have it and thus she cannot be one of the top ladies.

    I love her personality and I will remember her fondly, but I have the feeling she will have a poor showing at 2015 Nationals and will quietly, gracefully recede after that. And maybe in 4 years she will be a fun commentator. She is outspoken, I could see her offering new/different opinions that you don't get from Bezic/Hamilton.
    It's not exactly fair to say she doesn't have it when she's landed it more times this season than she has in the past few. Her 3-3 has been more consistent than Mao's triple axel for example. The issue is that many skaters can perform it with higher consistency and quality than her. But she's actually had more success with the 3-3 this season than any previous one and credit needs to be given for that. I kind of see it as Kwan trying to get her 3-3 back when she realised she needed it to be competitive in her latter years. It's hard to re-learn a maneuver as difficult as a 3-3, particularly when you haven't been competing with it, and (like Mao keeping a 3A even if it got inconsistent over the past few years) Ashley gets an A for effort for at least attempting it -- particularly when some of her scores/results would have actually been higher had she played it safe and just did the 3-2.

  3. #93
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    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    I do think [Wagner] can medal here or at next years worlds but she must skate letter perfect and have several others fall.
    Pretty much. I still think her best chance was 2012 (her score total in Sochi would have won that event)...now, I think Gold is the US best chance for a medal and is someone else that will ultimately stand in Wagner's way from an individual standpoint (in addition to the top international crop). I think Wagner is a very long shot here, but you know, ultimately anything can happen TBH...as long as she's within striking distance point-wise, if the door ever opens...and she delivers...

  4. #94
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    Quote Originally Posted by R.D. View Post
    Pretty much. I still think her best chance was 2012 (her score total in Sochi would have won that event)...now, I think Gold is the US best chance for a medal and is someone else that will ultimately stand in Wagner's way from an individual standpoint (in addition to the top international crop). I think Wagner is a very long shot here, but you know, ultimately anything can happen TBH...as long as she's within striking distance point-wise, if the door ever opens...and she delivers...
    I was re-watching her 2012 Worlds FS yesterday, and I really think it's a shame that she didn't medal at those Worlds. She botched her flip in the SP, but other than that, I'd take her programs and performances over Alena Leonova's (though not Akiko's).

  5. #95
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    The bottom line here is that, over the past two years, no American lady has been able to better Ashley's record of two Top 5 finishes at Worlds, two Top 3 finishes at the Grand Prix final and multiple golds in Grand Prix events and/or 4CC. Yes, very recent history has given some momentum to Gracie. Let's see what happens at 2014 Worlds (and next fall's Grand Prix) before we start dissing Ashley's merits as a competitor.

  6. #96
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    Things really suck for Wagner. She did her best in Sochi and no reward. She is a strong woman so I think she'll do well in life. She barely made the Olympic team this time, so her future in the skating ranks isn't good. I think she can try to give her best shot at Worlds. The momentum is there for her. After this season, though, I don't think her prospects are good. Polina and Gracie are probably going to dominate the next quad.

  7. #97
    Rejoicing in the land of Kwan kwanatic's Avatar
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    Ashley did well at the beginning of the season but since nationals, her 3-3 has been MIA. She desperately needs it in both programs if she wants to medal at worlds this year. Past this year, things will get harder for her. The ones we've been calling newbies (Adelina, Julia, Gracie, etc.) are now the veterans and an entire new crop of newbies will come in. This post-Sochi crop of ladies are scary...most have two 3-3s and level 4 everything. Ashley isn't a gifted enough skater to do what Carolina and Mao did, ie. weather the storm of newbies by relying on superior skating skills and artistry. It won't work b/c she doesn't hold a significant advantage over them in PCS anymore, especially after the Olympics. All of them can beat her out in TES as well which leaves Ashley in that unfortunate position of relying on others to make mistakes in order to medal.

    I'd like to see her on the world podium this year but with Mao, Carolina, Gracie and Julia in the field, I don't see that happening unless one of them falters and she skates cleanly. I think she'll be a solid #2 or #3 option for the US next year. She should be able to win a few more GP and national medals...but as far as winning a world medal...I'm not so sure that will happen for her past this year.

  8. #98
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    If Ashley skated pre-2006, she would have been a World or possible Olympic medalist. But the field is too deep now, not just at home but abroad.

  9. #99
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    Ashley is a hard worker and really wants to be on the podium at Worlds ... but I'm not seeing it. To be on the podium, she needs 3/3.

    She has worked really hard to get a consistent 3/3 but she does not have it. Given her age, I doubt she will get ever it. So as other posters commented, to get on the podium, she must rely on the mistake of others.

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  11. #101
    Skating is art, if you let it be. Blades of Passion's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by concorde View Post
    To be on the podium, she needs 3/3.
    A 3/3 is not "needed" to get on the podium.

    If someone has the best spins, best footwork, best PCS, and all of the Triples without a 3/3, they will be on the podium or even be a World Champion.

    Given Ashley's abilities, the absolute best thing to do would be forget about the 3/3 in the LP. She needs to work on her basics, work on her spins, and get two programs that show her off as the most mature and interesting skater in the Ladies field (with CoP transitions).

  12. #102
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    Quote Originally Posted by Blades of Passion View Post
    A 3/3 is not "needed" to get on the podium.

    If someone has the best spins, best footwork, best PCS, and all of the Triples without a 3/3, they will be on the podium or even be a World Champion.

    Given Ashley's abilities, the absolute best thing to do would be forget about the 3/3 in the LP. She needs to work on her basics, work on her spins, and get two programs that show her off as the most mature and interesting skater in the Ladies field (with CoP transitions).
    BOP would you advise her to go back to Philip Mills and ask for forgiveness. Or continue to experiment with new choreographers.

  13. #103
    Skating is art, if you let it be. Blades of Passion's Avatar
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    I would advise her to work with me. Nobody else is going to put the same level of thought into her programs and I would be able to work with her every day, since she trains near me. My fee isn't high either. What a deal.

  14. #104
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    Quote Originally Posted by Blades of Passion View Post
    A 3/3 is not "needed" to get on the podium.

    If someone has the best spins, best footwork, best PCS, and all of the Triples without a 3/3, they will be on the podium or even be a World Champion.

    Given Ashley's abilities, the absolute best thing to do would be forget about the 3/3 in the LP. She needs to work on her basics, work on her spins, and get two programs that show her off as the most mature and interesting skater in the Ladies field (with CoP transitions).
    Yeah, well and Ashley landed a jump combination that neither Gracie nor Mao could land at worlds, the double axel triple! Probably the only time Ashley will ever be able to say that, but still! It is pretty funny how things can work out. If a skater works the point system to the best of their abilities they can definitely be competitive.

  15. #105
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    Quote Originally Posted by Amei View Post
    Kostner was helped a lot by her artistic ability, and a country with a small talent pool, Wagner doesn't have either.
    I think we also need to note that Caro Kostner has one of the best basic skating skills and great deep edge control which gives her the speed and ice presence. Ashley IMHO does not have Kostners basic skills even if there isn't a deep talent pool. It was Kostners basic skills that allowed her the artistry development and great footwork. It was kinda like Kwan who although not a strong jumper had good edge work and footwork.

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