2014 Worlds: Who is the Dark Horse for the Men's podium? | Page 5 | Golden Skate

2014 Worlds: Who is the Dark Horse for the Men's podium?

FTnoona

Final Flight
Joined
Dec 26, 2009
Let's put it this way. If Yuzuru falls 2-3 times but fully rotates his jumps, he will still win UNLESS someone like Javier Fernandez delivers a clean 3 quad program with no doubling. The World's are in Japan, and the title is Yuzuru's to lose.

That would just create a whole sh!t storm of hate for him. But if Hanyu manages to skate his SP cleanly, I think you are probably right about him having a 2 fall advantage. The highest Fernandez has scored this season was a 91 with a fairly well skated SP at Euros. However, if Hanyu makes mistakes in his SP like at the last two worlds, I don't see him having that 2 fall advantage over Fernandez. Hanyu's hit the 90s in PCS, but his PCS also have a big range while Fernandez's PCS consistently stay in the 80s even for bad skates. So I doubt that if Hanyu gives points away on the technical side in both the SP and FS, the PCS gap btwn him and Fernandez will be large enough to hold off even a decent Fernandez.

I'd vote Abbott as dark horse. He should just skate without the quad in the SP and put one in the FS. He'd probably get around the same SP score as Brown and that would keep him in the hunt. Who knows, maybe a couple of the guys going for quads will miss theirs and that would put him in an even better position. I think the best thing for Abbott to do is go for the layout that he will most likely end up skating clean and then play the waiting game to see how many guys actually land their quads.
 

moviechick

On the Ice
Joined
May 7, 2008
I'm rooting for Yuzuru but I hope he either skates clean to win or loses. The last thing he needs now is his own inflation haunting him.
 

FTnoona

Final Flight
Joined
Dec 26, 2009
I'm rooting for Yuzuru but I hope he either skates clean to win or loses. The last thing he needs now is his own inflation haunting him.

And I think ppl are just dying for someone new to complain about since Chan is sitting out for a bit.
 

moviechick

On the Ice
Joined
May 7, 2008
And I think ppl are just dying for someone new to complain about since Chan is sitting out for a bit.

Chan brought on a lot of it by coming off terribly in interviews though. Yuzuru is like a puppy. He's lucky he escaped the Olympics unscathed cause EVERYONE sucked so bad in the event, but if he beats clean performances at worlds, I'm afraid that won't do him any good.
 

Silvia451

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 6, 2014
Country
Romania
Chan brought on a lot of it by coming off terribly in interviews though. Yuzuru is like a puppy. He's lucky he escaped the Olympics unscathed cause EVERYONE sucked so bad in the event, but if he beats clean performances at worlds, I'm afraid that won't do him any good.

+he's at home. It is expected him and Mao to be overscored (even though I don't think the Japanese will act the same way just after Sochi)
 

Esopian

Final Flight
Joined
Feb 18, 2014
+he's at home. It is expected him and Mao to be overscored (even though I don't think the Japanese will act the same way just after Sochi)

As much as I hope for Hanyu to do well at the 2014 Worlds, I don't want him to be overscored just because the competition is held in Japan (it's sort of inevitable though). I wish for him to do his best on his own and earn the score he deserves, clean or not. In the end, fair competition is the best ... but these days that's getting scarce.
 

HanDomi

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 27, 2014
As much as I hope for Hanyu to do well at the 2014 Worlds, I don't want him to be overscored just because the competition is held in Japan (it's sort of inevitable though). I wish for him to do his best on his own and earn the score he deserves, clean or not. In the end, fair competition is the best ... but these days that's getting scarce.

The problem is many people don't understand few things. They are saying oh he falls -why he win while other skated cleanly. This is the problem of people. Yes, he falls but still he managed rest of the program better (because of level of technical difficulty and it execution) than others without fall. And it is SP+FS. Not only FS.
As i wrote in Yuzuru topic I hope we will see great leanded 4S, because it looks as beatifull as his 4T on some practice videos.

The thing I like about him he is not skating conservatively, he is taking all the guns :thumbsup:
 

usethis2

Medalist
Joined
Feb 11, 2014
@HanDomi: I don't think you can blame it all on people. I consider myself Yuzuru's fan but I see him tossing a coin every time he attempts 4S in competitions. I am not too versed with COP but it looks to me he does that because it gets him points no matter what. Correct me if I am wrong.

But if that's actual state of affairs, then people have reason to doubt the legitimacy of competition (or even the sport).
 

Poice

Final Flight
Joined
Mar 29, 2013
The problem is many people don't understand few things. They are saying oh he falls -why he win while other skated cleanly. This is the problem of people. Yes, he falls but still he managed rest of the program better (because of level of technical difficulty and it execution) than others without fall. And it is SP+FS. Not only FS.
As i wrote in Yuzuru topic I hope we will see great leanded 4S, because it looks as beatifull as his 4T on some practice videos.

The thing I like about him he is not skating conservatively, he is taking all the guns :thumbsup:

ITA, it's not Yuzuru's fault that he's better than most of the skaters even with fall. He has the best TES potential at the current men's field. At two last WC he got the highest TES and in Sochi he also managed to get it despite his two falls and not counted 3Lz+1R+3S. I think some people don't understand that his programs are on that high level of difficulty. Just look at his SP - I guess he's one of the few skaters (the only one?) that decided to take advantage of 10% bonus in second half for 3A and combination. The same goes for his LP - in second half of the program he has two 3A (both in combination), two 3Lz (one in combination 3Lz+1R+3S) and 3R. We can have clean winning programs with so-so difficulty or almost perfectly done really difficult and demanding programs... As for me - I prefer the second option.


And to answer the question of the topic - I think the dark horses are Han Yan and Maxim Kovtun, but both of them need to skate almost clean to get medal.
 

Interspectator

Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 25, 2012
I'd love to see Han Yan Skate his short and free to their potential. --and maybe get a bit more engaged in the free.
 

TMC

Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 27, 2014
The problem is many people don't understand few things. They are saying oh he falls -why he win while other skated cleanly. This is the problem of people. Yes, he falls but still he managed rest of the program better (because of level of technical difficulty and it execution) than others without fall. And it is SP+FS. Not only FS.
As i wrote in Yuzuru topic I hope we will see great leanded 4S, because it looks as beatifull as his 4T on some practice videos.

The thing I like about him he is not skating conservatively, he is taking all the guns :thumbsup:

Agree that people don't understand a few things.

However, "This is the problem of people" - strongly disagree. This is a problem if the IJS.

Im 100% with Dick Button on this. It should not be fall = deduction of 1 point. It should be fall = 0 points for element.

Hands down/step-out should get a 1 point deduction.
 

TMC

Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 27, 2014
@HanDomi: I don't think you can blame it all on people. I consider myself Yuzuru's fan but I see him tossing a coin every time he attempts 4S in competitions. I am not too versed with COP but it looks to me he does that because it gets him points no matter what. Correct me if I am wrong.

But if that's actual state of affairs, then people have reason to doubt the legitimacy of competition (or even the sport).

You're right, a fall on a fully rotated quad still gets you many, many points. Stupid as it is.
 

TMC

Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 27, 2014
ITA, it's not Yuzuru's fault that he's better than most of the skaters even with fall. He has the best TES potential at the current men's field. At two last WC he got the highest TES and in Sochi he also managed to get it despite his two falls and not counted 3Lz+1R+3S. I think some people don't understand that his programs are on that high level of difficulty. Just look at his SP - I guess he's one of the few skaters (the only one?) that decided to take advantage of 10% bonus in second half for 3A and combination. The same goes for his LP - in second half of the program he has two 3A (both in combination), two 3Lz (one in combination 3Lz+1R+3S) and 3R. We can have clean winning programs with so-so difficulty or almost perfectly done really difficult and demanding programs... As for me - I prefer the second option.


And to answer the question of the topic - I think the dark horses are Han Yan and Maxim Kovtun, but both of them need to skate almost clean to get medal.

This is the problem with COP vs. popularity of the sport.

Some FS fans would rather see clean programs with few falls, some want to see more technically demanding programs with (inevitably) more falls. This is a matter of opinion, though I don't think there are many fans even who can say that they really really enjoyed the latest disastrous Olympic men's free skate event.

To the once-a-year or Olympic viewer, winning with many falls just looks ridiculous. They cheer for the one performer in the top 5 with the clean program (D10 at 2013 Worlds for example & again in Sochi) and then cannot understand why a program that looks much sloppier still wins (Chan). They will likely not watch again, because they're frustrated, annoyed, infuriated, baffled etc. This must lead to a decline in the popularity of the sport.

ETA Quads aren't the be-all end-all - There are programs with quads with so-so difficulty (frontloaded with hardly any transitions, lots of telegraphing, lots of end-to-end cross-overs, choreographed "breathing breaks" etc)., and there are really demanding and difficult programs without quads (backloaded with lots of difficult transitions, faster rhythm, lots of difficult combos/sequences, hardly any choreo breaks).
 

moviechick

On the Ice
Joined
May 7, 2008
I have to say Bob Costas made a great point about the CoP. A casual viewer will not understand why stuff in the second half gets more points because no other sport gives a bonus for second half points. Yes, I get that you're tired but so do basketball, football, soccer players. In basketball you get rewarded for a harder shot (behind the 3 point line) but it counts the same whether it's 5 seconds into the game or 4th quarter.
 

makaihime

Final Flight
Joined
Feb 20, 2014
Yes, I get that you're tired but so do basketball, football, soccer players. In basketball you get rewarded for a harder shot (behind the 3 point line) but it counts the same whether it's 5 seconds into the game or 4th quarter.

I love the 10% bonus because it gives skaters an initiative to spread out their jumps during the FS. I for one, don't enjoy programs which are jump heavy in the beginning and then when we get to the 2nd half, its almost all footwork/spins. :frown:

In ball related sports, you don't have a program. Your are aiming to only do 2 things during the entire game. Defend and attack. Protect the ball and get the ball in. Thats it, and that's all that spectators expect. And unlike FS where you are alone on the "field" in those sports you have team mates and opposing teams. You are not playing the entire game yourself, and there are teammates which are interchangeable throughout the game. If you get a 10% bonus, the other team gets a 10% bonus. You can't choose not to shoot the ball in, nor can you choose to not defend the ball. TBH that kind of comparison is apples and oranges. :disapp:

And correct me if I'm wrong, but Orser actually told Yuzuru to drop the 4S, and they can adjust their program with 4T's since he wasn't landing it consistently in competitions but he refused because he said he wanted to challenge himself. He's not the type to be satisfied with his current level and will always try to push the techinal boundries, whether its good for FS in general or not its up for debate, but its just the kids personality to not take the easy way out. He can land those 4S likes its nothing in practices and gala's so its definitely a mental thing for him, but I won't be surprised if once he masters those 4S's in competition that he'll aim for 4L's or whatever the kids next quad is :rolleye: I'm really hoping he lands his 4S in the WC though..more for his sake than anything else. :rolleye:

-And to answer the question, I think its Kevin reynolds and Han Yan :p
 

giulia95

Medalist
Joined
Jun 19, 2012
I love the 10% bonus because it gives skaters an initiative to spread out their jumps during the FS. I for one, don't enjoy programs which are jump heavy in the beginning and then when we get to the 2nd half, its almost all footwork/spins. :frown:

In ball related sports, you don't have a program. Your are aiming to only do 2 things during the entire game. Defend and attack. Protect the ball and get the ball in. Thats it, and that's all that spectators expect. And unlike FS where you are alone on the "field" in those sports you have team mates and opposing teams. You are not playing the entire game yourself, and there are teammates which are interchangeable throughout the game. If you get a 10% bonus, the other team gets a 10% bonus. You can't choose not to shoot the ball in, nor can you choose to not defend the ball. TBH that kind of comparison is apples and oranges. :disapp:

And correct me if I'm wrong, but Orser actually told Yuzuru to drop the 4S, and they can adjust their program with 4T's since he wasn't landing it consistently in competitions but he refused because he said he wanted to challenge himself. He's not the type to be satisfied with his current level and will always try to push the techinal boundries, whether its good for FS in general or not its up for debate, but its just the kids personality to not take the easy way out. He can land those 4S likes its nothing in practices and gala's so its definitely a mental thing for him, but I won't be surprised if once he masters those 4S's in competition that he'll aim for 4L's or whatever the kids next quad is :rolleye: I'm really hoping he lands his 4S in the WC though..more for his sake than anything else. :rolleye:

:agree:
 

moviechick

On the Ice
Joined
May 7, 2008
I get why it's there but casual viewers definitely have a harder time with it, especially if someone's margin of victory basically comes down to back loading a program vs skating clean with a more front loaded program.
 

karne

in Emergency Backup Mode
Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 1, 2013
Country
Australia
I love the 10% bonus because it gives skaters an initiative to spread out their jumps during the FS. I for one, don't enjoy programs which are jump heavy in the beginning and then when we get to the 2nd half, its almost all footwork/spins. :frown:

So what do you think of programs with a 2-6 layout? Or even a 1-7, or 0-8? (I don't think anyone's done that yet, but I'm sure it's not far off.) To my mind they're just as bad.




Anyway, what am I looking forward to? The Japanese skaters being overscored at home and then the blushes and total hypocrisy of posters here as they scramble to defend their continued vicious attacks on Sotnikova and Russia...
 
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