Qualifying Spots for 2015 Worlds - Predictions
How many spots will each country earn for next year's World Championships?
Japan will retain 3 spots, easily.
Czech Republic, Spain and USA will retain 2 spots. (Brown and Aaron likely would have made it 3 spots for USA.)
China, Germany and Russia will move up from 1 to 2 spots (Go Yan, Liebers, Kovtun!)
Canada, France and Kazakhstan will drop down to 1 spot. (Joubert gone means France's chances for 2 spots are also gone. Reynolds needs to place in the top 12 to get Canada to 2 spots; in the unlikely event that neither Balde or Nguyen qualifies for the free, Reynolds needs to place in the top 10.)
Japan and USA will retain 3 spots, easily.
Italy and Russia will move up to 3 spots. (Russia, easily; Italy, just barely.)
China will retain 2 spots.
Canada and South Korea will drop down to 1 spot. (The two South Korean girls will combine for just over 28 points. As with Reynolds, Osmond needs to place in the top 12 to get Canada to 2 spots; in the unlikely event that Daleman doesn't qualify for the free, Osmond needs to place in the top 10.)
Canada and Russia will retain 3 spots, easily.
China will move up to 3 spots, easily.
France, Germany, Italy and USA will retain 2 spots. (No big surprises here.)
Canada and Russia will retain 3 spots. (Russia, easily; Canada, just barely.)
France, Germany and Italy will retain 2 spots.
USA will drop down to 2 spots. (C&B and S&S will combine for just over 13 points.)
Great Britain will move up from 1 to 2 spots.
Last year, I had a couple of major misses with these predictions, forecasting only 2 spots for the American ladies and 3 spots for the Russian ladies, when in fact the opposite happened. (Imagine what US and Russian nationals, not to mention the 2014 Olympics, might have looked like had this occurred!) Will be interesting to see how things go down at this Worlds.
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As for the Canadians, I don't know if they'll drop to one spot in ladies or men's. I think at least one of Balde or Nguyen can make the free, and if "good" Reynolds shows up, much better than 12th is within his grasp. For the ladies, Osmond's 13th place at Olympics was lower than what she's usually capable of, and Daleman made the free there with room to spare, so she'll probably make it here too. I think France may also be able to keep two spots for the men, depending on which Amodio shows up.
For Chinese ladies, I'm not so sure that they'll keep 2 spots. Basing on Olympics results, they would lost the 2nd spot for 1 point. (14+15)
France could have a 2nd spot if Meité do a top 10 again (it would be the first time since 2001 and Gusmeroli!).
Not sure for the 2nd spot of the french pairs, it will depend on the shape of Popova/Massot. The same for the german ice dance spot with Kolbe/Caruso.
I think USA will keep 3 spots. At the Olympics they were 8 and 9, which = 15 But with D/W and V/M out they will move up.
Originally Posted by SubRosa
Here was the Olympic standings look like w/o the top two
6.) C/B (USA)
7.) S/S (USA)
8) C/B (UK)
9.) Z/G (Germany)
10.) Z/S (AZE)
11.) H/D (Spain)
12.) G/F (Italy)
16.) P/I (Canada)
I actually think Canada may be in bigger danger of losing a spot than the U.S. While W/P can rank quite highly, it's hard to say where G/P or P/I will end up.
Here's the SB:
Yes, under the SB, Canada would barely keep 3 spots and U.S. finishes one. However, both the season best scores for W/P and P/I were from Skate Canada, when there was a loose technical panel. It's clear the technical panel is much more strict, so it's hard to say whether they can have the same scores at Worlds. But I think Gilles and Portier can do enough to keep that third spot.
One has to remember that the Shibutanis still managed to beat Coomes and Buckland at the Olympics with a mini-meltdown during their Olympics FD where they lost a whole bunch of points due a wardrobe malfunction on their combo lift (C/B barely beat the Shibs in the FD). So I think 6th and 7th is possible for the two USA teams, hence three spots.
Originally Posted by Mrs. P
As the scores you posted show, G&P's Best international score is 10 points higher than P&I's. But, it's hard to compare G&P and P&I this season because they haven't competed against each other internationally - only at Nationals. G&P have higher international scores so far than P&I, and a higher ISU world ranking, but we won't know which team will finish ahead at Worlds until we see how the panel responds to them and whether each team skates cleanly. If G&P mess up, they will miss the opportunity to build on last year's results, and if P&I encounter their usual consistency issues, they could run into problems, as well.
Originally Posted by Mrs. P
I agree that the judges at Skate Canada tend to be a little more generous towards Canadian skaters (I say that as a Canadian myself). W&P and P&I probably got a couple extra points at Skate Canada from being on home ice. We'll see how the Skate Canada GP scores compare with those at Worlds, although they still may end up being in the general ballpark.