Analyzing Sotnikova and Kim's footwork in the FS

pangtongfan · May 2, 2014

Meoima said:
I don't think the Russians are that greedy. I guess they are smart enough to know that only medal contenders should have been rewarded the gold. But Plushy withdrew and their plans messed up. I don't find the problem with Plushy if he had competed and won (cause both Hanyu and PChan were so bad that day). I think Russians might have been contended with just one gold in single.

Well I think you are totally wrong. Russia wanted a return to the glory days where they would win gold in practically every event. You think they were ever going to let a home Olympics pass and perhaps their only chance ever to get a ladies gold. No way. Regardless whether Plushenko was able to skate and receive his purchased gold medal or not.

BTW if the Olympics were not in Russia Plushenko's current skating is weakened to the point he wouldnt have a hope to beat Hanyu for the gold even with his mistakes. A scove over 280 isnt even attainable for him outside of Russia anymore, although in Russia I am sure a score over 300 was waiting had he competed and gone clean. I wouldnt have complained about his gold given the other performances, but just wanted to point out this bit of reality.

annca · May 2, 2014

Meoima said:
I don't think the Russians are that greedy. I guess they are smart enough to know that only medal contenders should have been rewarded the gold. But Plushy withdrew and their plans messed up. I don't find the problem with Plushy if he had competed and won (cause both Hanyu and PChan were so bad that day). I think Russians might have been contended with just one gold in single.

oh but they kinda are

. there is without a doubt that plushenko (even though i think he's a great skater) would have been given the gold regardless of what kind of performance hanyu and chan did. maybe thats one of the reasons why they chose him instead of kovtun in the first place beacuse with him winning, it doesnt look so bad because he has reputation to back it up.
im kinda having a problem with your logic on why the men and ladies'even are correlated thou.. regardless of what the results were during the men's event, theyre gonna let her win regardless

so maybe i'll just be thankful that plush wd to give chance to the other skaters who are really worthy enough for the gold

. coz if not, then there'll be another skater who is rigged out of his gold

pangtongfan · May 2, 2014

annca said:
oh but they kinda are . there is without a doubt that plushenko (even though i think he's a great skater) would have been given the gold regardless of what kind of performance hanyu and chan did.

Without a doubt. There is no way with how the Sochi figure skating was set up that any of Plushenko, Voronov, kovtun, Menshov (whoever competed) could have lost to even a clean Chan or Hanyu, just as there was no way Sotnikova or Lipnitskaya (whichever skated better of the two) could ever lose to even a clean Kim, Kostner, or Asada. Before his WD no other man had a chance at the gold medal unless Plushenko fell atleast three times.

Had Alena Leonova been entered as the 3rd lady and Sotnikova and Lipnitskaya both really bombed, Leonova would be your OGM if she turned in a somewhat decent performance.

Meoima · May 2, 2014

annca said:
so maybe i'll just be thankful that plush wd to give chance to the other skaters who are really worthy enough for the gold . coz if not, then there'll be another skater who is rigged out of his gold

Maybe that's the real reason Plushy withdrew? He already had a 2 golds and 2 silvers, he doesn't need a gifted one, according to your logic?
But Hanyu fell twice so Plushy might be regretting now, since if only he stayed on his feet...

pangtongfan · May 2, 2014

Meoima said:
Maybe that's the real reason Plushy withdrew? He already had a 2 golds and 2 silvers, he doesn't need a gifted one, according to your logic?
But Hanyu fell twice so Plushy might be regretting now, since if only he stayed on his feet...

I think the classy Plushy prides himself on only having had well earned uncontroversial medals and titles in his career, and did not want a bogus Oly gold (which he would have been awarded had Hanyu and Chan gone clean) tainting his legacy. However you are right given how the mens event was skated, he probably regrets it now. As I said outside Russia, Plushenko at this stage would not get the scores to win even clean, even with how Hanyu and Chan did. However in Russia he both would have won, and won without contorversy in that case, and it would have been another amazing chapter in his career.

Sandpiper · May 2, 2014

I still think this whole conspiracy theory is going too far. Clean Plush (even with two quads in the LP) would have a hard time winning over clean Chan or Hanyu (two-quad LP as well, of course). Maybe winning over an uninspired Chan, because Plush has an extra triple axel, but even that's tough. Hanyu's BV is so high, it's difficult for either Plush or Chan to win against him if he's totally clean.

Clean two-quad LP Plush would've won against the cruddy Hanyu and Chan of Sochi, true. I dunno if Plush had it in him to do two quads though. If he were completely healthy, sure, but he's been injured, "retired," or both for nearly a decade (hence why he hasn't tried a two-quad LP since Nijinsky, except for Japan Open 2012). Clean one-quad LP Plush (e.g. his Sheffield 2012 skate) has a smidgeon of a chance, but it depends on how he does in the SP and how many points he has to make up. Casual viewers would have no problem with it, but it's not how the points work. I'll be the first to say that IJS is as liable to manipulation as 6.0, but there are limits to what they can do (under either system).

Plush with two falls isn't gonna happen, but if it does he's got no chance to win even bronze.

Maybe the Sochi men's free inspired Plush to come back though. :laugh:

Meoima · May 2, 2014

Sandpiper said:
Plush with two falls isn't gonna happen, but if it does he's got no chance to win even bronze.
Maybe the Sochi men's free inspired Plush to come back though.

Yes, he wants to come back and show the boys how to skate under pressure!! :laugh:

Sandpiper · May 2, 2014

Maybe it's, "Argh, I could've won in Sochi!" but it could also be, "What the heck is happening to the sport?!" :biggrin:

Nadya · May 2, 2014

annca said:
oh but they kinda are . there is without a doubt that plushenko (even though i think he's a great skater) would have been given the gold regardless of what kind of performance hanyu and chan did. maybe thats one of the reasons why they chose him instead of kovtun in the first place beacuse with him winning, it doesnt look so bad because he has reputation to back it up.
im kinda having a problem with your logic on why the men and ladies'even are correlated thou.. regardless of what the results were in men's event, russia was looking for their 1st lady figure skater to win gold in the olympics so that they'll be the first one to win in every discipline.

so maybe i'll just be thankful that plush wd to give chance to the other skaters who are really worthy enough for the gold . coz if not, then there'll be another skater who is rigged out of his gold

No one delivered a gold medal-worthy skate. The Sochi champion in men's event is really a joke title, a decision driven by pure math, not by any degree of excellence delivered on the ice. Having seen how the rest of the field skated, Plush is no doubt kicking himself over a missed medal win.

Nadya · May 2, 2014

pangtongfan said:
I think the classy Plushy prides himself on only having had well earned uncontroversial medals and titles in his career, and did not want a bogus Oly gold (which he would have been awarded had Hanyu and Chan gone clean) tainting his legacy. However you are right given how the mens event was skated, he probably regrets it now. As I said outside Russia, Plushenko at this stage would not get the scores to win even clean, even with how Hanyu and Chan did. However in Russia he both would have won, and won without contorversy in that case, and it would have been another amazing chapter in his career.

I think it is nothing short of outstanding that you claim to have not only a view into how the medals were allotted, bu also a view into what drives the emotions of someone you have never met. If you are THAT good about reading people's feelings, perhaps you can commercialize that skill of yours.

Jump · May 2, 2014

Sandpiper said:
I still think this whole conspiracy theory is going too far. Clean Plush (even with two quads in the LP) would have a hard time winning over clean Chan or Hanyu (two-quad LP as well, of course). Maybe winning over an uninspired Chan, because Plush has an extra triple axel, but even that's tough. Hanyu's BV is so high, it's difficult for either Plush or Chan to win against him if he's totally clean.

Clean two-quad LP Plush would've won against the cruddy Hanyu and Chan of Sochi, true. I dunno if Plush had it in him to do two quads though. If he were completely healthy, sure, but he's been injured, "retired," or both for nearly a decade (hence why he hasn't tried a two-quad LP since Nijinsky, except for Japan Open 2012). Clean one-quad LP Plush (e.g. his Sheffield 2012 skate) has a smidgeon of a chance, but it depends on how he does in the SP and how many points he has to make up. Casual viewers would have no problem with it, but it's not how the points work. I'll be the first to say that IJS is as liable to manipulation as 6.0, but there are limits to what they can do (under either system).

Plush with two falls isn't gonna happen, but if it does he's got no chance to win even bronze.

Maybe the Sochi men's free inspired Plush to come back though.

Before the Sochi Olympics, no one would've thought or believed slightly flawed Adelina could beat a clean Yuna. Yet it happened and it was pretty decisive score wise. Anything is possible when there's nationalism and money involved.

Meoima · May 2, 2014

Nadya said:
I think it is nothing short of outstanding that you claim to have not only a view into how the medals were allotted, bu also a view into what drives the emotions of someone you have never met. If you are THAT good about reading people's feelings, perhaps you can commercialize that skill of yours.

It's just tea-time talking, you don't have to be that serious. We will never know what happened anyways.

Mathman · May 2, 2014

Nadya said:
If you are THAT good about reading people's feelings, perhaps you can commercialize that skill of yours.

When I read this I thought you were going to conclude, "If you are THAT good about reading people's feelings, perhaps you can guess what I am thinking about you right now."

annca · May 2, 2014

Meoima said:
It's just tea-time talking, you don't have to be that serious. We will never know what happened anyways.

:agree:

Sandpiper · May 2, 2014

Well, it's clear Plush withdrew because of the snapped screw. Love him or hate him, I don't think there's any reason to doubt that. A gold medal isn't worth paralysis.

What we don't know is how a clean Plush could've done had he skated. I'd say bronze assuming he's still carrying the burden of his injuries (just no snapped screw) and thus couldn't pull off a 2-quad LP. Meoima and Pangtongfan disagree. We also don't know what he would've felt about being "gifted" the gold medal, even though in retrospect it wouldn't have been controversial. Well, it's all just idle speculation anyway.

YesWay · May 2, 2014

Nadya said:
No one delivered a gold medal-worthy skate. The Sochi champion in men's event is really a joke title, a decision driven by pure math, not by any degree of excellence delivered on the ice.

LOL

Hanyu's SP deservedly smashed the previous WR, and broke the 100-point barrier for the first time in history.
And his FS, even with a couple of stumbles, was still so technically difficult and well-executed that it scored 178+

His grand total was over 280, and you seriously think that doesn't deserve a gold medal?
Or even Chan's 275? How many skaters have ever reached scores that high?

Your comment is laughable. And typical of the ridiculous hyperbole and exaggeration that litters this thread, and others like it. Not to mention all the Libel - I imagine certain people would be in pretty deep trouble if anybody actually took their nonsense seriously, and decided to sue...

Sandpiper · May 2, 2014

While some of the criticism directed toward Hanyu and Chan has been too harsh, there's a reason many fans don't consider the Sochi men's free a night to remember. The scores--which have been inflating like crazy over the past four years--aren't "proof" that they actually skated well.

It was a decision driven by pure math. Neither Hanyu or Chan turned out good performances--kinda impossible to do that when you're that messy. Even Hanyu's flawless SP got the scores it did partially through exploiting the points system. I personally prefer Chan's 4-3 combo + solo lutz verses Hanyu's solo quad and 3Lz-3T, but that's not what gets the points (Obviously, Chan deserved to be behind due to his mistake on the axel, so I'm not disputing the scores).

It's fine if you enjoyed the men's free or at least applaud Hanyu and Chan's efforts. But you're not gonna convince people their performances were great because, OMG, look at the points!!! If anything, the points prove there's a discrepancy between what many fans wish to see and what the IJS actually rewards.

pangtongfan · May 2, 2014

Comparing scores is also a joke since everyone with half a brain knows ISJ has seen scores escalate naturally over time since its inception, and they will have to clamp down altogether soon as it getting to the point everyone near the top is getting +3s in GOE and 10s in PCS. If we take scores literally wouldnt Hanyu from Sochi beaten Chan at the 2011 worlds, but I find that hard to believe. His LP from Sochi would also have beaten Kozuka's LP from the 2013 worlds, again hard to believe.

pangtongfan · May 2, 2014

Sandpiper said:
I still think this whole conspiracy theory is going too far. Clean Plush (even with two quads in the LP) would have a hard time winning over clean Chan or Hanyu (two-quad LP as well, of course). Maybe winning over an uninspired Chan, because Plush has an extra triple axel, but even that's tough. Hanyu's BV is so high, it's difficult for either Plush or Chan to win against him if he's totally clean.

Clean two-quad LP Plush would've won against the cruddy Hanyu and Chan of Sochi, true. I dunno if Plush had it in him to do two quads though. If he were completely healthy, sure, but he's been injured, "retired," or both for nearly a decade (hence why he hasn't tried a two-quad LP since Nijinsky, except for Japan Open 2012). Clean one-quad LP Plush (e.g. his Sheffield 2012 skate) has a smidgeon of a chance, but it depends on how he does in the SP and how many points he has to make up. Casual viewers would have no problem with it, but it's not how the points work. I'll be the first to say that IJS is as liable to manipulation as 6.0, but there are limits to what they can do (under either system).

Plush with two falls isn't gonna happen, but if it does he's got no chance to win even bronze.

Maybe the Sochi men's free inspired Plush to come back though.

You are actually attempting to do a strictly skating based comparision to guage how the results would have panned out, which in the context of the Sochi figure skating "competition" (lol at the competition part) is kind of silly and pointless.

Sandpiper · May 2, 2014

Well, I don't think Adelina's win is quite the joke you think it is, so we'll have to agree to disagree? Or maybe you can use Meoima's time machine and speak to the enraged Team Yuna me from right after the ladies' results. :laugh:

Analyzing Sotnikova and Kim's footwork in the FS

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