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Thread: Analyzing Sotnikova and Kim's footwork in the FS

  1. #331
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    Quote Originally Posted by jaylee View Post
    Reading this thread made me think about, oddly enough, Rachael Flatt. The downgrades on Rachael's flips at the 2010 Olympics never sat right with me at the time. I always thought those downgrades were politically motivated--because Rachael went first in the group and she went clean, they just didn't want any chance she'd be near the podium if the veterans weren't clean.
    Yeah, it sure looked that way. Kim, Asada, and Rochette were yet to skate, and who knows? one of them might have fallen or something.

    Mirai, skating last, got a free ride and finished 4th, after the top three all performed well enough that they couldn't be caught. I guess it was poetic justice to make up for Flatt winning U.S. Nationals on questionable downgrades of Mirai's jumps. Which in turn might have been to make it up to Rachael, who should have won U.S. Nationals the previous year instead of Alissa Czisny.

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    Quote Originally Posted by gkelly View Post
    I disagree. They usually score on quality.

    In high-stakes competitions like the Olympics, there may also be agreements behind closed doors that cause judges to systematically nudge their GOEs up or down for certain skaters. But those manipulations would be the exception, not the norm.

    Do you really think that judges bother to make agreements about what scores to give some 13-year-old they never heard of at her first JGP?
    I agree in theory but those GOE 3's can really jack up a program based upon a very subjective thing. For jumps in particular you have to weigh height versus distance, air position landing etc.. For example, not many jumpers do all these things perfectly (to deserve a 3). Adelina's height on her jumps in general was terrific in her FS. Not much carry compared to a large number of others (especially Carolina and Yuna). Her landings were mostly solid, but not always perfect (even on the ones landed cleanly).

    As far as the point of this thread, based BoP's analysis, he felt she deserved a Level 3 with GOE 1 (or 2 at best) on her step/turn sequences (as opposed to the Level 4 with a GOE 3 she received). What do you think based upon your analysis?

  3. #333
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    Quote Originally Posted by drivingmissdaisy View Post
    This would be highly impractical. If Russia's or USA's top 3 skaters skated at 6 different GP events, and there were some overlap with lower ranked RUS/USA skaters, it is entirely possible to need 6 different judges for the GP series, and none of those judges would be able to judge at 4CC/Euros, and none of those (including the 4CC/Euros judge) could judge Worlds. Add in some Senior B's to the mix and you're talking about needing a lot of judges. If the complaint is that the judges are inadequately trained, knocking out so many judges with this provision would not lead to having the best judges at the most important competitions.
    Then there shouldn't be a USA or a RUSSIA judge at every 6 GP series event. Actually my idea was conceived purely for GP series, WC and Olympic ONLY where the stake are at highest where conflict of interests must be better managed. The idea might not work right now due to practical issues you mentioned, but there can be something like a 4 years initiative plan to broaden judge expertise with other minority figure skating federations countries, e.g Singapore, Brazil, Taiwan, Netherlands, South Africa, Philippines, Turkey etc. to encourage opportunity to gain experience at major events Think of it like seeding expertise and spread wealth and knowledge about the sport to new territories. It is a healthier approach to truly serve the sport's international interests rather than focus on the major power federations. I realise the idea is very blue sky thinking but it is doable with enough initiative and follow through in a long term strategy for ISU (Doubt that will happen though .... with these lot in power). It can be a great way to raise the profile sport world wide while breed knowledge. I am curious if they can do things like trial events to have young judges mark on minor competitions with full disclosure (not anonymous, mark live on camera as they see it) for fun to see how it works with the public. They can learn, refine and improve the process then consider implement at a more elite level.

    Quote Originally Posted by Blades of Passion View Post
    You made a mistake calculating the differential for Sotnikova, her score would drop from 5.6 to to 4.51, which is 1.09 points.

    But, really, the judges who gave Sotnikova's step sequence +3 GOE are completely wrong. Giving it a +2 would already be overly generous and not the most accurate representation of the quality. We are analyzing the step sequences here, so it's only logical to have a discussion on the GOE grades now that I have proven the level calls were wrong.

    In comparing these two step sequences, Sotnikova had shakier edges, less flow in the movement, inferior upper body movement, and significantly less movement directly to the music. There isn't any criteria in which she was better than Yu-Na either. Her GOE grade on the footwork should have been at least a full mark behind Yu-Na's. A fair assessment of the footwork sequences would be Level 3 with +1 GOE for Sotnikova and Level 4 with +2 GOE for Yu-Na. That would put the scoring differential at 2.66 points from what they actually received.
    Thanks for the correction. I misread the pdf and thought Adelina got 5.80 instead of 5.60. Yes the GOEs, I remember those long discussion about how strict it is to satisfy the number of bullet points to get +1 +2 or +3, but seems things been relaxed since last round of rule changes? I just can't get over reading the protocols from Vancouver vs the the protocols in Sochi, they were really stingy with the GOEs back then, or rather they some how became overly generous at this competition (to compensate for Sotnikova's PCS?). Take the Vancouver FS for example, Yuna only got 2x 3s (3lz3T, Combination Spin), Mao got 2 x 3s (Step sequences)

    http://library.la84.org/6oic/Officia...sults_Book.pdf
    http://www.isuresults.com/results/ow..._FS_Scores.pdf

    I simply refuse to believe the Russian youngsters were better than Yuna and Mao from Vancouver. Yuna and Mao made me stayed and learn the friggin COP (!!!!!!!), Watching Adelina win the OGM with a score of 149 and 9.75 on her choreography make me want to tear my hair out and burn all my art, music and dance degrees/awards/diplomas/certificates. What is the point of learning all these knowledge if the judges went against everything I thought I knew?

  4. #334
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sam-Skwantch View Post
    I assume that when the judges watch the practice skates in their head they are creating a "par"score, so to speak, that they expect to give the skater.
    That was true under 6.0.

    With IJS, they might get a sense of the general range of PCS they would be thinking of for this skater, or noting an especially strong element that could be worthy of +2 or +3 GOE.

    If they've been judging long enough I also assume they could relatively easily have a pre planned way to mark scores to achieve this "par".
    Not sure what you mean by this "par."

    I don't think judges think in terms of total scores because they don't have control over the base values and they probably don't have the interest in doing lots of arithmetic.

    (If they were on a mission to put one skater ahead of another regardless of how well they actually skate, the math might be worth the effort, but again, that would only be the case for the medal contenders at the really important events. The rest of the time, why bother when it's simpler just to score the actual skating?)

    They can easily estimate what their total PCS would be for a skater before factoring. For the men, where the PCS factors are 1.0 for the short program and 2.0 for the freeskate, all they need to do is add up the five components for the short and double the total for the free. For other disciplines with other factors, they'd have to do another step of math to figure out their totals. They can only guess at the TES though.

    Am I assuming too much or is it fair to think the judges actually know the skaters pretty well and whether subconscious or not...they have a score in mind before the skater takes the ice. I'd like to add that I don't see anything wrong necessarily with this..I'm just curious if this happens...at least in the international top rungs.
    Know the skaters personally or know their skating very well?

    Some judges will know skaters from their own countries personally. That will be more true in small countries with small skating communities. In a large country such as the US, a judge who is from the same part of the country as a skater and watched them grow up, maybe belongs to the same club, might know them personally and would certainly have seen a lot of their skating. A judge who does a lot of critiquing would get to know skaters they critique often.x

    In terms of being familiar with the skater's skating, again, judges from the same small country or the same part of a large country would likely have judged them often.

    Skaters who have been at the top of the international ranks for a while will be known to most judges. After all, if they're not judging Worlds themselves, they probably check out the TV broadcasts or other sources of videos to see who won.

    When they go to judge an international competition, they'll probably already have seen a lot of the successful veterans, maybe other veterans who compete a lot at the competitions this judge tends to judge, and skaters from their own country. If there's a newcomer on the scene who got a lot of buzz with a junior world medal last year, a Grand Prix medal in their debut season, a surprise win at a nationals with a deep field, etc., then even judges who haven't judged them before will probably make a point to check them out.

    From past events and from watching practices they should have a sense of what to watch out for with particular skaters -- this one tends to "lip," that one has a lot of surprise entries into elements, the other one starts with a step sequence so pay close attention right from the beginning of the program, etc.

    At most competitions (aside from the Grand Prix Final) there will also be skaters that any individual judge either has never seen before or has not paid much attention to before.

    If they've been judging for a long time (and it does take years to get from national to international to ISU championship judge), they've seen hundreds, maybe a few thousand, of skaters come and go. So they're not going to memorize everything about every skater at every competition. But they would pay more attention to world/Olympic medal contenders.

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    I am not great when analyzing step sequences, but, I watched Carolina a few times and recognized some elements of her footwork.

    Twizzles(both directions), Loops(both directions), Toe Steps, Three turns, Mohawk and some curved changes of edges.

    What I did not see in Carolina's footwork: Illusion turn and toe hop

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    Quote Originally Posted by gkelly View Post
    So you're saying that there should be no more than 1 point difference in the scores for, say, this triple lutz and this one?



    Well, the individual judges already don't have the option of using fractional GOEs. That's an effect of the averaging. Even if they only have a choice between 0 and 1 for successful elements, every time even one judge disagrees there will be decimal places in the average GOE.



    That can happen, but the main thing that GOEs do is allow judges to score quality. If you take away that option, then there's no incentive to do anything well, just to get it done successfully.
    There are enough rules on technical completion of elements that encourage skaters to do jumps well. Under the old system skaters could fudge landings etc, and still get away with credit for their jump. The important difference between that and bonus GOE points, is that its based on objective observation. On that jump Boitano does, he could get the bonus point, but then he could get credit for his transitions. Again, if you run judges run amuck with GOEs, then it creates another vacuum in PCS. It is harder to distinguish where all these different numbers are coming from. All that convolution makes room for the judges' bias to come through.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Eladola View Post
    Any judging system for a sport like this would be cheating friendly,

    The problem with this specific system is that if there were to be cheating, It would be backed by "protocol"
    Again, the real problem comes down to the judges. The judges should work for the ISU and be barred from taking any money or monetary help from their home federations. Judges caught cheating--hello, Yuri--should be banned for life. Judges should not have family or business relationships with members of their federations (hello, Alla). And their scores should not be anonymous. This, of course, doesn't solve the problem of a cheating or biased technical controller. But if technical controllers are found to make too many "mistakes," such as giving too high a level or missing an under-rotation or flutz, the ISU needs to stop using them! All of this starts with the ISU. They have tolerated cheating and suspect results and just made it harder for anyone to call them on it. Until that changes, figure skating judging will continue to be corrupt.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mathman View Post
    Yeah, it sure looked that way. Kim, Asada, and Rochette were yet to skate, and who knows? one of them might have fallen or something.

    Mirai, skating last, got a free ride and finished 4th, after the top three all performed well enough that they couldn't be caught. I guess it was poetic justice to make up for Flatt winning U.S. Nationals on questionable downgrades of Mirai's jumps. Which in turn might have been to make it up to Rachael, who should have won U.S. Nationals the previous year instead of Alissa Czisny.
    It wasn't a "they" that dinged Rachael. It was the technical controller. Rachael got downgrades she had never gotten before. That was really surprising to me, after it seemed like she had skated really well. Her score put her below Laura Lepisto, who had skated in the second to last group, landing her in 7th if everyone else skated well, which they did. I think Rachael never really recovered after that.

  9. #339
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    Ice coverage is immensely different between the two, and it boggles my mind how Adelina received +3 in her footwork. I also find it amusing how ISU thinks the judging was fair. Do they even look at their own guidelines

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    Thanks gkelly for your detailed reply. I am always learning a lot from you which I greatly appreciate.

    Quote Originally Posted by gkelly View Post
    I.e., the same judge should not judge the same home country skater at more than one international event per year?

    The ISU can't control whether an international judge also judges at their national championships, where they will judge all of their country's international-level skaters.
    As mentioned, the suggestion is only applicable for major international events ie/ GP/GPF, Worlds, Olympics at the Olympics where the stake is highest.

    Actually do you think banning ISU judges judge at home GP series can improve impartiality? The federation will never go for it of course, unless it is enforced on everyone, but it does resolve the problem of removing unfair home advantage that is simply not affordable by minor skating federations.


    Works for singles/pairs judges, since they have three different disciplines they can judge. And for judges who have both singles/pairs and dance appointments. For those with dance appointments only, either they judge the dance event or they don't judge.
    And some countries don't have multiple dance judges.
    This will need to be done via a long term plan to groom the right number of judges with the balanced expertise to meet these competitions. A 4-8 years road map (timed with Olympic cycle) in 2 stages perhaps.


    If you're worried about making deals, then even being in the same place at the same time (e.g., judging different disciplines or one judging and the other serving as referee or controller) would give them access to do so.

    If they're going to do it consciously, and if they all have dogs in the hunt so to speak, they're going to make deals against each other. I.e., bloc judging. Allowing one top-ranked skater to have a home country judge and not the others would theoretically give that skater more of an advantage than allowing all 5 to have home judges.
    How are judges drawn? Skaters draw skating orders, are judges drawn (even months ahead?) or get assigned controlled by ISU?
    I only put forward minimum 1 due to practical issues, and assumed the judges assigned can be done by randomized draw instead specifically assigned by ISU to suit their agenda.
    In the ideal world, no judges should share nationality or affiliation with the top skaters they judge, professionally or socially. Not achievable right now, but maybe when there are more other judges?

    To be realistic, as long as this sport relies on 100% human judgement, these deal making will likely to occur anyway, it is human nature.
    From a risk management perspective however. We can only do so much to restrict these things from happening by putting preventative measures in place for everyone to follow. I am sure there are expertise in the field of compliance, auditing, ethics area to draw a plan to improve impartiality and minimize conflict of interests.

    If you're just talking about judges developing groupthink consensus by serving on panels together and discussing their decisions afterward in the judges' room, I don't know that the nationality of the judges would be the biggest factor. E.g., if the Finnish and the French and the Australian judge often end up at the same competitions and talk about what they saw, they may end up with similar opinions about the current Russian and Japanese and American skaters, without any particular political reason to favor one country's contenders over another.

    There's always going to be a tension between practicality and attempts to legislate impartiality.
    It is a tough job for sure and like you said, it is not just a matter of nationality, geography, or historical alliances. People are social animals, they are going to talk. I do think even though there are things like randomized draws at certain process to 'claim' fairness, it can still be manipulated by the power that be if they only enlist candidates that will suited to their agenda. That is why transparency is important. By removing anonymity, all their scores are available in public, they will feel more obligated to guard their reputation by just being fair. The excuse of federation pressure do not apply if most of their assignment do not affect home skaters.


    In an ideal world there would be an unlimited supply of qualified knowledgeable judges from all over the world, including countries with no elite skaters whatsoever, who can get to any location at any time for the same modest costs. If that were the case, avoiding judges' familiarity with or allegiance to specific top competitors could always be a top consideration.

    In real life, judges need to gain experience judging elite skaters before they can be deemed qualified enough to judge the big events. They will usually have judged all their own country's top skaters in domestic competitions. Judges from newer federations need experience judging junior and senior B events before qualifying for championship events. Judges in Europe can often drive or take trains to competitions in other European countries, making it easier for them to be invited to judge international events at the beginning of their international judging careers, so they will be more familiar with other European skaters before they reach the elite levels. American and Canadian judges may be familiar not only with their own country's skaters but some of each other's who cross the border for non qualifying competitions, as well as any foreign skaters who train in North America and enter nonqual competitions for practice.

    Judges often have relationships with other officials or with coaches of similar age and background dating back to their own skating years.

    Some sources of familiarity and affiliation with the skaters they judge can be considered too much of a conflict of interest and reason to disqualify that judge from serving on a panel with that skater. Others are too numerous to be anything but inevitable, and usually too tenuous to make much difference.

    Where is it practical to draw the line? E.g., say we all agree that no parent should judge his/her own child, or no tech specialist who is also a coach should serve on a panel of an event in which a current student is competing. But just having judged the same skater a couple times before during the same season? Keeping track of all such connections would be a full-time job in itself.

    If the main concern is the high-stakes medal contenders at the big events, maybe the rule could only apply to the Grand Prix and to ISU championships.

    ....
    Agree with several points, and leaves several points to ponder. This is perhaps for a different thread, but just how many judges are in the ISU. Is there a directory list? How many are there per federation, is it based on a quotas system? e.g USA have 6 level judges so Russia must also get 6 spots, or are they interdependent? How are judges assigned etc. Maybe you can refer me a few articles to look at?

    I actually wonder if judges should be a proper paid job. I personally never believe in any voluntary/low paid jobs that are in prestigious positions. It tends to breed corruption. With proper pay, proper penalty, transparent marking, remove anonymity, I think most people can trust the system better. IOC should pay for it.

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    I started a new thread for judge assignment questions etc.

    I hope the links answer some of your questions. I'd just have to read in detail in order to summarize -- you could go ahead and do the reading yourself.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mao88 View Post
    I agree - that's why the silent majority are ignoring you and all the other Yunabots.

    In terms of you Yunabots mission to convince the world she was wuzrobbed - me thinks this sums it up nicely

    My friends would DIE (!) when they hear i'm being called a Yunabot
    Considering i was pissed off for a whole year when she decided to come back and steal Asada's Olympic title.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mao88 View Post

    I agree - that's why the silent majority are ignoring you and all the other Yunabots.

    In terms of you Yunabots mission to convince the world she was wuzrobbed - me thinks this sums it up nicely
    I know you think you are being clever, but do you even understand the movie? Even though it is always called Mission Impossible but what ALWAYS happens in the end?
    Not quite what you are going for is it?

  14. #344
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    Quote Originally Posted by GKelly
    They can easily estimate what their total PCS would be for a skater before factoring. For the men, where the PCS factors are 1.0 for the short program and 2.0 for the freeskate, all they need to do is add up the five components for the short and double the total for the free. For other disciplines with other factors, they'd have to do another step of math to figure out their totals. They can only guess at the TES though.
    For ladies, divide the desired total score by 24.

    If you want her to score 210 points for the whole competition, give her 210/24 = 8.75 in PCSs across the board, and hope the TES keeps pace.

    SP = 35+35=70, LP =70+70=140.

  15. #345
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ven View Post
    You guys are all missing the point. CoP was created to hide cheating.
    It can't be. This sport it was never 100% based on objectivity, and never will be, or could be. A sport with such a big art elements in it can't work like that. We either accept it or not. No system in the world can change that.
    Program Component can't be 100% right for everybody. It simply can't be.
    Therefore, you have a lot of room for interpretation and for cheating. Even with tech. elements, which one might think it's easier to see and judge, you still have room for manoeuvre with the GoE's.

    What they can do though it's minimise the "damage". They have the experience of the old system and of the new one.
    Something better in between can be found, maybe? They can alo clean the house, for example judges that are found to fix events, or any other inappropriate behaviour should not be permitted to judge in ISU internation competitions anymore.
    The problem is that the majority of people involved don't want this, because it suits them and their interests.

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