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Thread: Analyzing Sotnikova and Kim's footwork in the FS

  1. #1021
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    Quote Originally Posted by Meoima View Post
    I don't think the Russians are that greedy. I guess they are smart enough to know that only medal contenders should have been rewarded the gold. But Plushy withdrew and their plans messed up. I don't find the problem with Plushy if he had competed and won (cause both Hanyu and PChan were so bad that day). I think Russians might have been contended with just one gold in single.
    Well I think you are totally wrong. Russia wanted a return to the glory days where they would win gold in practically every event. You think they were ever going to let a home Olympics pass and perhaps their only chance ever to get a ladies gold. No way. Regardless whether Plushenko was able to skate and receive his purchased gold medal or not.

    BTW if the Olympics were not in Russia Plushenko's current skating is weakened to the point he wouldnt have a hope to beat Hanyu for the gold even with his mistakes. A scove over 280 isnt even attainable for him outside of Russia anymore, although in Russia I am sure a score over 300 was waiting had he competed and gone clean. I wouldnt have complained about his gold given the other performances, but just wanted to point out this bit of reality.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Meoima View Post
    I don't think the Russians are that greedy. I guess they are smart enough to know that only medal contenders should have been rewarded the gold. But Plushy withdrew and their plans messed up. I don't find the problem with Plushy if he had competed and won (cause both Hanyu and PChan were so bad that day). I think Russians might have been contended with just one gold in single.
    oh but they kinda are . there is without a doubt that plushenko (even though i think he's a great skater) would have been given the gold regardless of what kind of performance hanyu and chan did. maybe thats one of the reasons why they chose him instead of kovtun in the first place beacuse with him winning, it doesnt look so bad because he has reputation to back it up.
    im kinda having a problem with your logic on why the men and ladies'even are correlated thou.. regardless of what the results were during the men's event, theyre gonna let her win regardless

    so maybe i'll just be thankful that plush wd to give chance to the other skaters who are really worthy enough for the gold . coz if not, then there'll be another skater who is rigged out of his gold

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    Quote Originally Posted by annca View Post
    oh but they kinda are . there is without a doubt that plushenko (even though i think he's a great skater) would have been given the gold regardless of what kind of performance hanyu and chan did.
    Without a doubt. There is no way with how the Sochi figure skating was set up that any of Plushenko, Voronov, kovtun, Menshov (whoever competed) could have lost to even a clean Chan or Hanyu, just as there was no way Sotnikova or Lipnitskaya (whichever skated better of the two) could ever lose to even a clean Kim, Kostner, or Asada. Before his WD no other man had a chance at the gold medal unless Plushenko fell atleast three times.

    Had Alena Leonova been entered as the 3rd lady and Sotnikova and Lipnitskaya both really bombed, Leonova would be your OGM if she turned in a somewhat decent performance.

  4. #1024
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    Quote Originally Posted by annca View Post
    so maybe i'll just be thankful that plush wd to give chance to the other skaters who are really worthy enough for the gold . coz if not, then there'll be another skater who is rigged out of his gold
    Maybe that's the real reason Plushy withdrew? He already had a 2 golds and 2 silvers, he doesn't need a gifted one, according to your logic?
    But Hanyu fell twice so Plushy might be regretting now, since if only he stayed on his feet...

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    Quote Originally Posted by Meoima View Post
    Maybe that's the real reason Plushy withdrew? He already had a 2 golds and 2 silvers, he doesn't need a gifted one, according to your logic?
    But Hanyu fell twice so Plushy might be regretting now, since if only he stayed on his feet...
    I think the classy Plushy prides himself on only having had well earned uncontroversial medals and titles in his career, and did not want a bogus Oly gold (which he would have been awarded had Hanyu and Chan gone clean) tainting his legacy. However you are right given how the mens event was skated, he probably regrets it now. As I said outside Russia, Plushenko at this stage would not get the scores to win even clean, even with how Hanyu and Chan did. However in Russia he both would have won, and won without contorversy in that case, and it would have been another amazing chapter in his career.

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    I still think this whole conspiracy theory is going too far. Clean Plush (even with two quads in the LP) would have a hard time winning over clean Chan or Hanyu (two-quad LP as well, of course). Maybe winning over an uninspired Chan, because Plush has an extra triple axel, but even that's tough. Hanyu's BV is so high, it's difficult for either Plush or Chan to win against him if he's totally clean.

    Clean two-quad LP Plush would've won against the cruddy Hanyu and Chan of Sochi, true. I dunno if Plush had it in him to do two quads though. If he were completely healthy, sure, but he's been injured, "retired," or both for nearly a decade (hence why he hasn't tried a two-quad LP since Nijinsky, except for Japan Open 2012). Clean one-quad LP Plush (e.g. his Sheffield 2012 skate) has a smidgeon of a chance, but it depends on how he does in the SP and how many points he has to make up. Casual viewers would have no problem with it, but it's not how the points work. I'll be the first to say that IJS is as liable to manipulation as 6.0, but there are limits to what they can do (under either system).

    Plush with two falls isn't gonna happen, but if it does he's got no chance to win even bronze.

    Maybe the Sochi men's free inspired Plush to come back though.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sandpiper View Post
    Plush with two falls isn't gonna happen, but if it does he's got no chance to win even bronze.
    Maybe the Sochi men's free inspired Plush to come back though.
    Yes, he wants to come back and show the boys how to skate under pressure!!

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    Maybe it's, "Argh, I could've won in Sochi!" but it could also be, "What the heck is happening to the sport?!"

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    Quote Originally Posted by annca View Post
    oh but they kinda are . there is without a doubt that plushenko (even though i think he's a great skater) would have been given the gold regardless of what kind of performance hanyu and chan did. maybe thats one of the reasons why they chose him instead of kovtun in the first place beacuse with him winning, it doesnt look so bad because he has reputation to back it up.
    im kinda having a problem with your logic on why the men and ladies'even are correlated thou.. regardless of what the results were in men's event, russia was looking for their 1st lady figure skater to win gold in the olympics so that they'll be the first one to win in every discipline.

    so maybe i'll just be thankful that plush wd to give chance to the other skaters who are really worthy enough for the gold . coz if not, then there'll be another skater who is rigged out of his gold
    No one delivered a gold medal-worthy skate. The Sochi champion in men's event is really a joke title, a decision driven by pure math, not by any degree of excellence delivered on the ice. Having seen how the rest of the field skated, Plush is no doubt kicking himself over a missed medal win.

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    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    I think the classy Plushy prides himself on only having had well earned uncontroversial medals and titles in his career, and did not want a bogus Oly gold (which he would have been awarded had Hanyu and Chan gone clean) tainting his legacy. However you are right given how the mens event was skated, he probably regrets it now. As I said outside Russia, Plushenko at this stage would not get the scores to win even clean, even with how Hanyu and Chan did. However in Russia he both would have won, and won without contorversy in that case, and it would have been another amazing chapter in his career.
    I think it is nothing short of outstanding that you claim to have not only a view into how the medals were allotted, bu also a view into what drives the emotions of someone you have never met. If you are THAT good about reading people's feelings, perhaps you can commercialize that skill of yours.

  11. #1031
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sandpiper View Post
    I still think this whole conspiracy theory is going too far. Clean Plush (even with two quads in the LP) would have a hard time winning over clean Chan or Hanyu (two-quad LP as well, of course). Maybe winning over an uninspired Chan, because Plush has an extra triple axel, but even that's tough. Hanyu's BV is so high, it's difficult for either Plush or Chan to win against him if he's totally clean.

    Clean two-quad LP Plush would've won against the cruddy Hanyu and Chan of Sochi, true. I dunno if Plush had it in him to do two quads though. If he were completely healthy, sure, but he's been injured, "retired," or both for nearly a decade (hence why he hasn't tried a two-quad LP since Nijinsky, except for Japan Open 2012). Clean one-quad LP Plush (e.g. his Sheffield 2012 skate) has a smidgeon of a chance, but it depends on how he does in the SP and how many points he has to make up. Casual viewers would have no problem with it, but it's not how the points work. I'll be the first to say that IJS is as liable to manipulation as 6.0, but there are limits to what they can do (under either system).

    Plush with two falls isn't gonna happen, but if it does he's got no chance to win even bronze.

    Maybe the Sochi men's free inspired Plush to come back though.
    Before the Sochi Olympics, no one would've thought or believed slightly flawed Adelina could beat a clean Yuna. Yet it happened and it was pretty decisive score wise. Anything is possible when there's nationalism and money involved.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Nadya View Post
    I think it is nothing short of outstanding that you claim to have not only a view into how the medals were allotted, bu also a view into what drives the emotions of someone you have never met. If you are THAT good about reading people's feelings, perhaps you can commercialize that skill of yours.
    It's just tea-time talking, you don't have to be that serious. We will never know what happened anyways.

  13. #1033
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nadya View Post
    If you are THAT good about reading people's feelings, perhaps you can commercialize that skill of yours.
    When I read this I thought you were going to conclude, "If you are THAT good about reading people's feelings, perhaps you can guess what I am thinking about you right now."

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    Quote Originally Posted by Meoima View Post
    It's just tea-time talking, you don't have to be that serious. We will never know what happened anyways.

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    Well, it's clear Plush withdrew because of the snapped screw. Love him or hate him, I don't think there's any reason to doubt that. A gold medal isn't worth paralysis.

    What we don't know is how a clean Plush could've done had he skated. I'd say bronze assuming he's still carrying the burden of his injuries (just no snapped screw) and thus couldn't pull off a 2-quad LP. Meoima and Pangtongfan disagree. We also don't know what he would've felt about being "gifted" the gold medal, even though in retrospect it wouldn't have been controversial. Well, it's all just idle speculation anyway.

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