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Thread: Analyzing Sotnikova and Kim's footwork in the FS

  1. #1426
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ven View Post
    A little hyperbolic but not as much as you think. Sotnikova's 3-3 should have been downgraded, and she should have received an edge call. How many points does she lose there? The step sequence levels should have been swapped, that's another 2 points. Her PCS had never been above 63.99 her entire career, then at Euros (when she did NOT have "the skate of her life") her PCS jumped to almost 70 and then 74 at Olympics, essentially tying Kim for the highest of all time. It looks to me like the fix was in by the time of Euros, and one has to throw out her PCS score from there as well as Olympics and consider those rigged. So in a fair competition consistent with what Sotnikova had done in her career ... what kind of boost do you think she should have received on 63.99 for skating like she did in Sochi? Mid-high 60s fair? That's another 6-8 points.

    So PCS + Levels = 8-10 points, then you have the downgrades on the jumps, plus whatever excessive GOEs she received.

    And that's why the outcome was so outrageous to so many people, from casual fans to skating insiders, from countries all over the world. These weren't two close skaters separated by a point or two and the competition just happened to go one way over another, winners win and losers stop crying. This was a case where, had the competition been fair, Kim would have been 10 points(?) ahead of Sotnikova, but suddenly the Russian wins by 5?

    ETA: And that's just the free skate! We're not even talking about the short program scores, which were also subject to a lot of debate.

    Actually, her 3Z(e)+3T< would still get a BV of 8.9 points (instead of 10.1), and GOE would be -1 to -2 with the flutz, since it was executed well with preceding steps and good height and speed. With the GOE deduction, it would have scored about 8 points, I'd imagine, instead of 11.1 that she got.

    And then with the sequences being level 3, she would have lost 1.2 points in BV, which is about 1.4 points with GOE consideration (since GOE bonus on 3.3 versus 3.6 BV is negligible.

    That's about 5 points less.

    Also, Sotnikova had 69.60 PCS at Europeans (so she had certainly been above 63.99 -- both hers, Gold's and Julia's PCS shot up from the beginning of the season). I still think 74 points was way too high, but above 70 PCS for Sotnikova I could picture being justified (Lip should have been below 70), with Mao's PCS a point or two higher than hers. I also thought she didn't deserve more than 33 PCS in the SP (again, getting PCS on par with Kim was ridiculous, even if Sotnikova did have her best SP ever).

    So with her PCS dropping 2 points in the SP, and 4 points in the LP, and with the deductions on her 3-3 and her step sequence, she would have lost about 11 points, ending up with a final score of 213, which would have been enough for bronze. 210-211 if we reduce her GOE, which was pretty high on certain elements. I would have then swapped Kim and Kostner's PCS, giving Kostner the win. Saying she deserved bronze is totally legit, but saying she deserved 20 points less is too extreme... at the very worst, Sotnikova should have scored 13-14 points less than she did.

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    Choreography:

    Sotnikova's choreography was mocked on every skating forum I know of all season long. I happened to be a big cheerleader for her leading up to Sochi, but one of the criticisms I had of her was that her choreography was kind of all over the place, and she certainly acted her age on the ice, with lots of spunk but little or no refinement. Meanwhile, commentators who later defended the placements said Kim was the more artistic skater, but it's just about the jumps these days.

    So considering all of that, you would expect Kim to have an advantage in something like CH, right?

    Nope, try again.

    Number of 9.75s (or better) received during Sochi Free Skate:
    Sotnikova: 4
    Kim: 2

    Number of 9.5s (or better):
    Sotnikova: 6
    Kim: 5

    I wonder how that could have happened?

  3. #1428
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    Choreography is one of the most inconsistent PCS marks ever. A skater can skate the exact same program, and somehow score 0.75-1.5 higher in PCS. I mean, look at Gold and Lipnitskaia's CH marks in the team FS versus the individual FS. Are we supposed to assume that their program choreography drastically improved?! Especially with flawed skates with falls?

    Kostner's choreography was almost exactly identical to her Sochi skates, so I don't see how she could get a 9.21 for CH in Sochi, and 9.46 for CH in Saitama, especially considering the quality of her skate in Sochi vs Worlds?

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    I think the point is that the judges just use PCS scores arbitrarily, without any consideration for guidelines or what they are actually watching. They are just numbers that help them achieve the results they desire.

    The thing is though that political agendas can vary from one event to another and one season to another, so if you look at scores throughout one's career you should get a better idea of what a skater's abilities are. If they get 9's regardless of whether the competition is in Japan or Russia or the U.S. and regardless of whether it's a Grand Prix event or Worlds or Olympics, then it's pretty likely that skater's abilities are consistent with receiving 9s. But if they get 7s their entire career, and then all of a sudden it's the Olympics in their home country and they get 9s, then yeah ... something isn't quite right.

  5. #1430
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    I said this many times already, PCS nowadays is just ordinal system in disguise.

  6. #1431
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ven View Post
    Number of 9.75s (or better) received during Sochi Free Skate:
    Sotnikova: 4
    Kim: 2

    Number of 9.5s (or better):
    Sotnikova: 6
    Kim: 5

    I wonder how that could have happened?
    Because Yuna's programs weren't that great. Virtually everyone agrees that her LP was choreographically worse than her LP last year and/or her LP in Vancouver. Performance-wise it was weaker as well. Whether or not you liked Adelina's choreography, it was well received by the judges all season. In Sochi the judges realized that Adelina was on par with Yuna and scored her programs as such. Remember, the Japanese, North American and Western European judges all gave Adelina great scores as well, so these judges are seeing something that you are not.

  7. #1432
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    Quote Originally Posted by drivingmissdaisy View Post
    Because Yuna's programs weren't that great. Virtually everyone agrees that her LP was choreographically worse than her LP last year and/or her LP in Vancouver. Performance-wise it was weaker as well. Whether or not you liked Adelina's choreography, it was well received by the judges all season. In Sochi the judges realized that Adelina was on par with Yuna and scored her programs as such. Remember, the Japanese, North American and Western European judges all gave Adelina great scores as well, so these judges are seeing something that you are not.
    The judges didn't "realize" in Sochi that Sotnikova is on par with Kim. Just in terms of sheer skating skills and presentation ability, Kim (and Kostner) is leagues ahead of Sotnikova. Kim's programs were choreographically worse than last year, but that's in comparison to herself.

    As far as Sotnikova's CH being well-received ALL season, and being consistent with Sochi scoring... that's just delusional.

    Sotnikova's CH at Cup of China it was 7.50 and 7.04... her TEB choreography scores were 7.79 and 8.18...at the GPF it was 7.71 and 7.68..... by Sochi, her CH were 8.89 and 9.50 -- that's a hugely significant difference.

    I mean think about that... her CH score in her freeskate was 2.46 points higher in Sochi compared to Cup of China -- we're supposed to believe her choreography improved by 34.9%?

    At the GPF, her SS were 7.71 by Sochi it was 9.18. Are we to believe her skating skills improved that drastically in 2 months?

  8. #1433
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    Quote Originally Posted by drivingmissdaisy View Post
    Because Yuna's programs weren't that great.
    False. While you are entitled to your own opinion, many people liked Yuna's programs.

    Quote Originally Posted by drivingmissdaisy View Post
    Virtually everyone agrees that her LP was choreographically worse than her LP last year and/or her LP in Vancouver.
    You are the most uninformed poster posing as a knowledgeable poster on this forum.

    The judges' CH free skate score for Kim:
    2010 Olympics: 8.95
    2013 Worlds: 9.18
    2014 Olympics: 9.39

    So apparently, the judges thought her choreography was worse than those seasons, that they gave her a higher CH score. Doh!

    Quote Originally Posted by drivingmissdaisy View Post
    Whether or not you liked Adelina's choreography, it was well received by the judges all season.
    Sotnikova's choreography scores:
    Last season: 7.14, 7.58, 7.25, 8.07, 7.57
    This season: 7.61, 8.18, 7.68
    (notice a trend?)

    And then ...

    Euros: 8.68
    Olympics: 9.50

    So no they did not think her choreography was that great all season. Until the final weeks before Sochi, they were giving her the same scores she received her entire career. Like the other skaters, her marks were consistent within a season and saw a small increase season-to-season. But then all of a sudden the Olympics were coming and she was on the Russian team, all of that went out the window, and her Euros score went through the roof and she got the highest CH score ever at Olympics.


    Quote Originally Posted by drivingmissdaisy View Post
    Remember, the Japanese, North American and Western European judges all gave Adelina great scores as well
    Right, which is why I continue to insist this was not the sole work of one or two judges. The malfeasance in the scoring is evident throughout the entire judging panel and the technical panel. The shroud of suspicion falls over the entire ISU, and is why one cannot just "move on" to the next competition, because the people running the competitions are the bad guys. There is no reason to believe the next competition will be fair and determined by what happens on the ice. It's evident that the ISU created IJS and anonymous judging so they could fix competitions without being caught, that was their intent.

  9. #1434
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ven View Post
    The judges' CH free skate score for Kim:
    2010 Olympics: 8.95
    2013 Worlds: 9.18
    2014 Olympics: 9.39

    So apparently, the judges thought her choreography was worse than those seasons, that they gave her a higher CH score. Doh!
    You should realize PCS have trended upwards for everyone. Did you think Yuna's Sochi choreography was superior to her Vancouver program?

  10. #1435
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    Quote Originally Posted by drivingmissdaisy View Post
    You should realize PCS have trended upwards for everyone. Did you think Yuna's Sochi choreography was superior to her Vancouver program?
    Do you think Adelina's Sochi choreography was far superior to the her GPF or European program?
    Comparing two different seasons is something ridiculous. And what? 2010 and 2014, 4 years is such a long time for FS. You should realize that we just compare 2 performances in the same season.

  11. #1436
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    Quote Originally Posted by drivingmissdaisy View Post
    You should realize PCS have trended upwards for everyone.
    If PCS scores were legit, then in the case of a skater we should see a gradual increase over their career when they are improving. Consistent marks within a single season ... on the higher side for good performances and low side for poor performances ... and then slightly higher by the end of the season and next season. At some point, the skater reaches their maximum abilities, and their PCS should kind of plateau before reversing into a downward trend.

    But what is not acceptable is some skaters -- all of a sudden overnight -- their PCS undeservedly jumps all the way up to match their competitors, as if to fix the competition. Someone's components cannot increase that much relative to their competitors that fast unless the judges are intent on fixing the results.

    In reality, however, PCS scores are not legit, and they are just bogus numbers that are used to fix the results.

    Did you think Yuna's Sochi choreography was superior to her Vancouver program?
    Quote Originally Posted by NQShamrock View Post
    Do you think Adelina's Sochi choreography was far superior to the her GPF or European program?
    Comparing two different seasons is something ridiculous. And what? 2010 and 2014, 4 years is such a long time for FS. You should realize that we just compare 2 performances in the same season.


    What matters is do I think Yuna's choreography was superior to Adelina's? Yes, yes I do.

  12. #1437
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ven View Post


    What matters is do I think Yuna's choreography was superior to Adelina's? Yes, yes I do.
    Then go judge a competition and throw out your equally hilarious scores. Clearly, you are better than they.

    I agree with someone up-thread who said it (PCS) was an Ordinal System in disguise. I've been saying this since, forever. The people wasting their time posting pages upon pages of ultimately useless text on the subject just don't seem to get it. 96 pages, seriously I expect this thread to be going strong come Pyongchang...

    The judges are not combing through PCS criteria trying to reach scores. They're using the PCS simply to rank the skaters. The judges also study the protocols so in many cases they can simply throw out scores close to the skaters average over the season for that program without even given much though to anything unless the skater overperformed (like Sotnikova did) or underperformed (like Kostner did in Saitama, but that didn't stop them from giving her a monstrous number there, and there isn't nearly the backlash over that than for Sotnikova's PCS - largely because she beat YNK and MA still won in Saitama).

    The issue isn't whether Sotnikova, Kim, Kostner, Asada, Lipnitskaya, Gold, Wagner, or whoever deserved the Numerical PCS they did. The question is whether or not the ranking at the end of the day was correct because that's all that matters. The judges just use the numbers as a means to reach their intended goal, which is why the numbers often make no sense to viewers.

    Sotnikova's combo was no more UR than Kim's second Lutz was, and neither of them got a UR on those jumps. The judges were pretty lenient to all of the top contenders there, as is usually the case at an Olympics.

    I happen to think the end result was pretty spot on, but I generally don't have much of a favorite and quite frankly don't even tend to care much at this point. The Olympics already feel like they were 2 years ago to me.

    The world is not going to end because Sotnikova beat Yuna Kim at the Olympics. Chill out.

  13. #1438
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ven View Post
    But what is not acceptable is some skaters -- all of a sudden overnight -- their PCS undeservedly jumps all the way up to match their competitors, as if to fix the competition. Someone's components cannot increase that much relative to their competitors that fast unless the judges are intent on fixing the results.
    Again, the judges saw Carolina's program, then Adelina's, then Yuna's a bit later. What is a judge supposed to do if, after seeing Caro's performance, they watch Adelina and are more impressed? "Adelina's choreography was more complex than Caro, who gutted everything but the technical elements from the second half of her program. But Caro has a reputation of being a better skater than Adelina so we must score Caro higher." That is reputation scoring and it isn't fair at all. People complain about reputation scoring until their favorites don't get the benefit.

  14. #1439
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    Quote Originally Posted by Components View Post
    Sotnikova's combo was no more UR than Kim's second Lutz was, and neither of them got a UR on those jumps. The judges were pretty lenient to all of the top contenders there, as is usually the case at an Olympics.

    I happen to think the end result was pretty spot on, but I generally don't have much of a favorite and quite frankly don't even tend to care much at this point. The Olympics already feel like they were 2 years ago to me.

    The world is not going to end because Sotnikova beat Yuna Kim at the Olympics. Chill out.
    I agree 100%

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    Quote Originally Posted by drivingmissdaisy View Post
    Again, the judges saw Carolina's program, then Adelina's, then Yuna's a bit later. What is a judge supposed to do if, after seeing Caro's performance, they watch Adelina and are more impressed? "Adelina's choreography was more complex than Caro, who gutted everything but the technical elements from the second half of her program. But Caro has a reputation of being a better skater than Adelina so we must score Caro higher." That is reputation scoring and it isn't fair at all. People complain about reputation scoring until their favorites don't get the benefit.
    Pretty much this.

    Which is why I find this thread so entertaining :-)

    And it also explains why there isn't much backlash over the results at the following Worlds where the results raised quite a few eyebrows.

    The reputation judging is a bit disgusting. At Sochi Murakami was URing all over the place the judges turned a blind eye to the majority of them. But Zhang Kexin got murdered by the technical panel for URs on basically all of her jumps, as well as a lot of other skaters whose jumps were no worse than Murakami.

    There are skaters with amazing spins who struggle to match Kostner's GOE on her spins, when Kostner isn't even that good of a spinner.

    The whole scoring system is being used as a more complicated, numbers-driven replacement to 6.0 that is implemented differently but executed in virtually the same fashion. I don't see that changing anytime soon. People are going to get used to it. It's been almost a decade so I'm not sure why some wail incessantly about it.

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