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Thread: 2014-2015 GP predictions

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  1. #1
    skating philosopher Mrs. P's Avatar
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    2014-2015 GP predictions

    Eh, I'm up and it's almost the end of the season...which means time to speculate for next season.

    Unless there are major changes, there are 60 spots total in singles and 48 spots in pairs and dance. The announcement for the upcoming GP season is not yet up, so for now I'll use last year's announcement as reference:
    http://isu.sportcentric.net/db//files/serve.php?id=4555

    Top 12 get two spots (though it's not clear that with retirements wither people who are below the 12 would get moved up). For the sake of this exercise, I'll just stick to what I know till I can confirm.

    Let's start with the men:

    Top 12 at Worlds (2 spots automatically):
    1.) Yuzuru Hanyu
    2.) Tatsuki Machida
    3.) Javier Fernandez
    4.) Maxim Kovtun
    5.) Jeremy Abbott -- RETIRING (??? per recent interview)
    6.) Takahiko Kozuka
    7.) Han Yan
    8.) Max Aaron
    9.) Chafik Bessenghier
    10.) Tomas Verner -- RETIRING
    11.) Kevin Reynolds
    12.) Nam Nguyen
    13.) Ivan Righini (will move up in top 12 due to Tomas Verner's retirement)
    14.) Peter Liebers (likely w. Abbott's retirement)

    With the retirements that takes up a least 24 of the 60 spots

    Top 24 SB is guaranteed at least 1 spot likely good shot at 2. For the same of this exercise, not including those who already earned spots via Worlds placement:
    1.) Patrick Chan 295.27 -- will not compete in 2014-2015 GP
    7.) Denis Ten 255.10
    8.) Sergei Voronov 252.55
    12.) Jason Brown 243.09
    13.) Takahiko Mura 242.56
    14.) Adam Rippon 241.24
    18.) Konstantin Menshov 237.24
    19.) Michal Brezina 236.98
    20.) Nan Song 236.09
    23.) Alexander Majorov 224.86
    24.) Richard Dornbush 224.44

    Also top 24 World ranking (again not accounting those who got 2 spots via Worlds ) is also guaranteed at least one spot * also top 24 SB

    3.) Patrick Chan: 2,614* -- will not compete in 2014-2015
    4.) Denis Ten: 2,255*
    7.) Takahito Mura: 1981*
    8.) Richard Dornbush: 1779*
    9.) Sergei Vornov: 1716*
    10.) Konstantin Menshov: 1688*
    15.) Boyang Jin: 1487
    17.) Alexander Majorov: 1399*
    18.) Michael Christian Martinez: 1363
    19.) Michal Brezina: 1345*
    20.) Jason Brown: 1293*
    23.)Nan Song: 1234*
    24.) Florent Amodio: 1226

    They will definitely take at least 1 spot (37 total)...

    Nathan Chen and Adian Pitkeev will get at least one spot as Jr. World Medalist. (2; 39 total)

    So now we have 41 spots left, which can go a number of ways:

    1.) A second spot can be reward to the Top 24 SB/WR/Jr. Medalists who did not get two guaranteed spots at Worlds.
    2.) Skaters who represent host countries of the six events
    3.) Skaters who are not in the Top 24 SB/WR but are within the top 75 SB scores.

    Next 9 below the top 24 in SB not accounted for above:
    32.) Jinlin Guan 214.26
    33.) Jorik Hendrix 214.04
    35.) Ivan Righini 213.09
    36.) Artur Gachinski 211.49
    37.) Alexei Bychenko 211.24
    38.) Alexander Petrov 210.03
    39.) Keiji Tanaka 210.02
    40.) Jeremy Ten 208.51
    41.) Shoma Uno 206.50


    Some possible host picks.
    United States (Skate America): Despite likely qualifying for two spots on his own, Jason Brown will likely be picked. Candidates for host picks: Douglas Razzano, Joshua Farris, Nathan Chen and Ross Miner (#50 at 196.89) getting the host pick.

    Canada (Skate Canada): Nam Nguyen and Kevin Reynolds already have 2 spots. Chan will likely go to Skate Canada if he opts to compete in the GP. Otherwise Reynolds may end up there. Jeremy Ten, Eladj Balde (205.19 #42) and Andrei Rogozine (197.35, #48) are possible host picks.

    China (Cup of China): I still see Yan Han going to Cup of China as a headliner. The other two slots will likely go to skaters who wouldn't get an invite without. Jinlin Guan is a possibility. Maybe Boyang Jin since he's not in the top 24 and doesn't have a guaranteed spot. Or He Zhang (#53) 191.16if he moves up to seniors.

    France (Trophee Eric Bompard): Florent Amodio perhaps and then two other guys...??

    Japan (NHK Trophy): I can see Keiji Tanaka, Shoma Uno or Ryuju Hino (#47 with 199.64) as host picks. Yuzuru Hanyu will likely get picked here as a headliner.

    Russia (Rostelecom Cup): Maxim Kovtun will likely headline here. Adien Pitkeev, Artur Gachinski, Alexander Petrov or Artur Dmitriev (#45 201.74) or Mikhail Koyada (#46 201.26) are good candidate for host picks if it's not taken up by Menshov, Vornov,

    Other possible picks from the Top 50 SB (will likely require WD from those above them):
    43.) Misha Ge 203.26
    44.) Jin Seo Kim 202.26
    48.) Michael Christian Martinez 198.82

    Ladies

    Top 12 at Worlds get 2 spots (24)
    1.) Mao Asada -- likely not doing GP
    2.) Julia Lipnitskaia
    3.) Carolina Kostner -- retiring
    4.) Anna Pogorilaya
    5.) Gracie Gold
    6.) Akiko Suzuki -- retired
    7.) Ashley Wagner
    8.) Polina Edmunds
    9.) So Youn Park
    10.) Kanako Murakami --retiring?
    11.) Kaetlyn Osmond
    12.) Nathalie Weinzierl

    Subsitutes for top 12 (if retirements happen)
    13.) Gabrielle Daleman
    14.) Joshi Helgesson
    15.) Mae Bernice Meite

    Top 24 SB gets one spot (those already qualified for two at Worlds not included or those too young for GP);
    1.) Adelina Sotnikova 224.59
    10.) Elena Radionova 194.29
    13.) Satoko Miyahara 186.53
    15.) Zijun Li 181.56
    19.) Alena Leonova 178.15
    20.) Elizaveta Tuktamysheva 176.75
    22.) Haruka Imai 175.40
    23.) Mirai Nagasu 175.37
    24.) Mae Bernice Meite 174.53
    --- next five
    25.) Christina Gao 173.69
    27.) Samantha Cesario 172.70
    29.) Courtney Hicks 169.99
    31.) Hae Jin Kim 166.84
    32.) Alaine Chartrand 165.19

    Top 24 WR (after 2011-2012 season removed; thanks Chuckm for stats; again not including top 12 from Worlds; * indicates season best score) --
    3 3182 Adelina Sotnikova*
    6 2793 Elena Radionova*
    12 2302 Satoko Miyahara*
    14 2086 Elizaveta Tuktamysheva*
    15 1995 Viktoria Helgesson
    16 1975 Mae Berenice Meite
    17 1940 Haruka Imai
    18 1802 Courtney Hicks
    19 1697 Christina Gao
    20 1689 Zijun Li*
    21 1643 Joshi Helgesson
    22 1620 Amelie Lacoste (reportedly retired)
    23 1595 Mirai Nagasu*
    25 1557 Samantha Cesario
    26 1498 Agnes Zawadzki
    27 1450 Nikol Gosviani
    28 1377 Alena Leonova*

    None of the Jr. World medalists are old enough for GP except for Radionova.

    Possible host picks:

    USA: Gracie Gold will headline. Other possible choices: Samantha Cesario, Barbie Long, Hannah Miller, Mariah Bell, Ashley Cain, Leah Keiser
    CAN: Kaetlyn Osmond will headline. Other choices: Gabrielle Daleman, Alaine Chartrand
    CHN: Zijun Li will likely headline. Other choices: Kexin Zhang
    FRA: Mae Bernice Meite, Yrette Silete (I miss her!), Anais Vertrand and Laurine Lecavelier
    RUS: Adelina Sotnikova could headline this, other picks: Liza Tuktamysheva.
    JPN: Sakato Miyahara, Haruka Imai
    Last edited by Mrs. P; 04-01-2014 at 03:34 PM.

  2. #2
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    I read on FSU that per an interview, Patrick Chan will definitely not be on the GP, but 2015 Nationals is still a possibility.

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    Spiral Lover tulosai's Avatar
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    I thought the top 24 in terms of world ranking are also guaranteed 1 spot each?
    Last edited by Mrs. P; 03-28-2014 at 09:38 AM.

  4. #4
    skating philosopher Mrs. P's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by tulosai View Post
    I thought the top 24 in terms of world ranking are also guaranteed 1 spot each?
    Oh yes, that's right..will edit. Thank you.

  5. #5
    skating philosopher Mrs. P's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jaylee View Post
    I read on FSU that per an interview, Patrick Chan will definitely not be on the GP, but 2015 Nationals is still a possibility.
    Thanks for the info..I"ll take his name out for consideration.

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    Some of young boys (Petrov, Pitkeev, Nathan Chen, Shoma Uno, Nam Nguyen, some others may be) may prefer JGP instead of GP. They have real chance for medals and Final of JGP, not of GP.

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    Order of granting spots is as follows.

    1. Home spots of Organizing Members - 3 spots total, two are filled at initial designation, one may be filled at early September.
    2. Top 12 of Worlds - 2 spots for each.
    3. Not mentioned above of Top 24 of WR - one spot for each.
    3. Not mentioned above of Top 3 of JrWorlds and winner of JGP Final - one spot for each.
    4. Not mentioned above of Top 24 of Season Best - one spot for each.
    If there are free spots after that (they always are) - these spots are distributed only on Season Best.
    Sometimes they solve to give second spot them who has one, sometimes to give one spot to skaters who have place lower than 24 in Season Best table.

  8. #8
    skating philosopher Mrs. P's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by AlexRus View Post
    Order of granting spots is as follows.

    1. Home spots of Organizing Members - 3 spots total, two are filled at initial designation, one may be filled at early September.
    2. Top 12 of Worlds - 2 spots for each.
    3. Not mentioned above of Top 24 of WR - one spot for each.
    3. Not mentioned above of Top 3 of JrWorlds and winner of JGP Final - one spot for each.
    4. Not mentioned above of Top 24 of Season Best - one spot for each.
    If there are free spots after that (they always are) - these spots are distributed only on Season Best.
    Sometimes they solve to give second spot them who has one, sometimes to give one spot to skaters who have place lower than 24 in Season Best table.
    Thanks for this..I'll revise again! It's hard to keep track of all the rules.

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    Quote Originally Posted by AlexRus View Post
    Some of young boys (Petrov, Pitkeev, Nathan Chen, Shoma Uno, Nam Nguyen, some others may be) may prefer JGP instead of GP. They have real chance for medals and Final of JGP, not of GP.
    Shoma still needs to up his technical, at least 3A. The Japanese senior slots might not be for him this year. Chen, from what I heard, he'll stay for another year. I think Nam want to go full frontal to the senior now he flair well at World.

    AlexRus. What do you think about Russian Kids? You have so many info about the Russian youngsters. I'll wait for your opinions. Glad to see someone put their interests in the up-and-coming skaters as well.

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    Quote Originally Posted by BusyMom View Post
    AlexRus. What do you think about Russian Kids? You have so many info about the Russian youngsters. I'll wait for your opinions. Glad to see someone put their interests in the up-and-coming skaters as well.
    I believe only elder Men (of them who now are Juniors) may pretend to GP Events.
    Younger (Petrov, Samarin, Pitkeev etc) will prefer JGP.
    Elder are - Kvitelashvili (59th in Season Best) and Kolyada (46th in Season Best), they will not be eligible for JGP by age (both born at first half of 1995). One of them may have home spot.

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    Great effort Mrs. P, Thanks so much for that.

    Before i dive into this to really understand, Ill ask you just one thing

    What are the odds for Alexei Bychenko of getting 2 spots, Or one for that matter at the next GP?

    I'm not sure what his World standing would be after Worlds, or if it's even calculated after worlds (And not after GPF)

    He was:

    5th at Nebelhron
    4th at Golden spin
    10th at Europeans
    21st at Olympics
    15th at Worlds

    Seeing he's from Israel i bet he won't get recommendations if anyone withdraws :\

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    Quote Originally Posted by Eladola View Post
    What are the odds for Alexei Bychenko of getting 2 spots, Or one for that matter at the next GP?

    I'm not sure what his World standing would be after Worlds
    Now he is 43rd, will be some higher, but not at Top24.
    So his only chance for GP is Season Best, where he is 37th. He may get one spot, and may have chance to second, because many skaters withdraw after this season.

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    Quote Originally Posted by AlexRus View Post
    Now he is 43rd, will be some higher, but not at Top24.
    So his only chance for GP is Season Best, where he is 37th. He may get one spot, and may have chance to second, because many skaters withdraw after this season.
    Thanks for checking

    Crossing my fingers

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mrs. P View Post
    10.) Kanako Murakami --retiring?
    I heard that Kanako was staying in for at least one more year because she wasn't happy with her performances at Olympics or Worlds.

  15. #15
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    I'm getting really excited for the GP assignments! I'm really curious where Polina Edmonds will end up skating, in particular.

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