Eh, I'm up and it's almost the end of the season...which means time to speculate for next season.
Unless there are major changes, there are 60 spots total in singles and 48 spots in pairs and dance. The announcement for the upcoming GP season is not yet up, so for now I'll use last year's announcement as reference:
http://isu.sportcentric.net/db//files/serve.php?id=4555
Top 12 get two spots (though it's not clear that with retirements wither people who are below the 12 would get moved up). For the sake of this exercise, I'll just stick to what I know till I can confirm.
Let's start with the men:
Top 12 at Worlds (2 spots automatically):
1.) Yuzuru Hanyu
2.) Tatsuki Machida
3.) Javier Fernandez
4.) Maxim Kovtun
5.) Jeremy Abbott -- RETIRING (??? per recent interview)
6.) Takahiko Kozuka
7.) Han Yan
8.) Max Aaron
9.) Chafik Bessenghier
10.) Tomas Verner -- RETIRING
11.) Kevin Reynolds
12.) Nam Nguyen
13.) Ivan Righini (will move up in top 12 due to Tomas Verner's retirement)
14.) Peter Liebers (likely w. Abbott's retirement)
With the retirements that takes up a least 24 of the 60 spots
Top 24 SB is guaranteed at least 1 spot likely good shot at 2. For the same of this exercise, not including those who already earned spots via Worlds placement:
1.) Patrick Chan 295.27 -- will not compete in 2014-2015 GP
7.) Denis Ten 255.10
8.) Sergei Voronov 252.55
12.) Jason Brown 243.09
13.) Takahiko Mura 242.56
14.) Adam Rippon 241.24
18.) Konstantin Menshov 237.24
19.) Michal Brezina 236.98
20.) Nan Song 236.09
23.) Alexander Majorov 224.86
24.) Richard Dornbush 224.44
Also top 24 World ranking (again not accounting those who got 2 spots via Worlds ) is also guaranteed at least one spot * also top 24 SB
3.) Patrick Chan: 2,614* -- will not compete in 2014-2015
4.) Denis Ten: 2,255*
7.) Takahito Mura: 1981*
8.) Richard Dornbush: 1779*
9.) Sergei Vornov: 1716*
10.) Konstantin Menshov: 1688*
15.) Boyang Jin: 1487
17.) Alexander Majorov: 1399*
18.) Michael Christian Martinez: 1363
19.) Michal Brezina: 1345*
20.) Jason Brown: 1293*
23.)Nan Song: 1234*
24.) Florent Amodio: 1226
They will definitely take at least 1 spot (37 total)...
Nathan Chen and Adian Pitkeev will get at least one spot as Jr. World Medalist. (2; 39 total)
So now we have 41 spots left, which can go a number of ways:
1.) A second spot can be reward to the Top 24 SB/WR/Jr. Medalists who did not get two guaranteed spots at Worlds.
2.) Skaters who represent host countries of the six events
3.) Skaters who are not in the Top 24 SB/WR but are within the top 75 SB scores.
Next 9 below the top 24 in SB not accounted for above:
32.) Jinlin Guan 214.26
33.) Jorik Hendrix 214.04
35.) Ivan Righini 213.09
36.) Artur Gachinski 211.49
37.) Alexei Bychenko 211.24
38.) Alexander Petrov 210.03
39.) Keiji Tanaka 210.02
40.) Jeremy Ten 208.51
41.) Shoma Uno 206.50
Some possible host picks.
United States (Skate America): Despite likely qualifying for two spots on his own, Jason Brown will likely be picked. Candidates for host picks: Douglas Razzano, Joshua Farris, Nathan Chen and Ross Miner (#50 at 196.89) getting the host pick.
Canada (Skate Canada): Nam Nguyen and Kevin Reynolds already have 2 spots. Chan will likely go to Skate Canada if he opts to compete in the GP. Otherwise Reynolds may end up there. Jeremy Ten, Eladj Balde (205.19 #42) and Andrei Rogozine (197.35, #48) are possible host picks.
China (Cup of China): I still see Yan Han going to Cup of China as a headliner. The other two slots will likely go to skaters who wouldn't get an invite without. Jinlin Guan is a possibility. Maybe Boyang Jin since he's not in the top 24 and doesn't have a guaranteed spot. Or He Zhang (#53) 191.16if he moves up to seniors.
France (Trophee Eric Bompard): Florent Amodio perhaps and then two other guys...??
Japan (NHK Trophy): I can see Keiji Tanaka, Shoma Uno or Ryuju Hino (#47 with 199.64) as host picks. Yuzuru Hanyu will likely get picked here as a headliner.
Russia (Rostelecom Cup): Maxim Kovtun will likely headline here. Adien Pitkeev, Artur Gachinski, Alexander Petrov or Artur Dmitriev (#45 201.74) or Mikhail Koyada (#46 201.26) are good candidate for host picks if it's not taken up by Menshov, Vornov,
Other possible picks from the Top 50 SB (will likely require WD from those above them):
43.) Misha Ge 203.26
44.) Jin Seo Kim 202.26
48.) Michael Christian Martinez 198.82
Ladies
Top 12 at Worlds get 2 spots (24)
1.) Mao Asada -- likely not doing GP
2.) Julia Lipnitskaia
3.) Carolina Kostner -- retiring
4.) Anna Pogorilaya
5.) Gracie Gold
6.) Akiko Suzuki -- retired
7.) Ashley Wagner
8.) Polina Edmunds
9.) So Youn Park
10.) Kanako Murakami --retiring?
11.) Kaetlyn Osmond
12.) Nathalie Weinzierl
Subsitutes for top 12 (if retirements happen)
13.) Gabrielle Daleman
14.) Joshi Helgesson
15.) Mae Bernice Meite
Top 24 SB gets one spot (those already qualified for two at Worlds not included or those too young for GP);
1.) Adelina Sotnikova 224.59
10.) Elena Radionova 194.29
13.) Satoko Miyahara 186.53
15.) Zijun Li 181.56
19.) Alena Leonova 178.15
20.) Elizaveta Tuktamysheva 176.75
22.) Haruka Imai 175.40
23.) Mirai Nagasu 175.37
24.) Mae Bernice Meite 174.53
--- next five
25.) Christina Gao 173.69
27.) Samantha Cesario 172.70
29.) Courtney Hicks 169.99
31.) Hae Jin Kim 166.84
32.) Alaine Chartrand 165.19
Top 24 WR (after 2011-2012 season removed; thanks Chuckm for stats; again not including top 12 from Worlds; * indicates season best score) --
3 3182 Adelina Sotnikova*
6 2793 Elena Radionova*
12 2302 Satoko Miyahara*
14 2086 Elizaveta Tuktamysheva*
15 1995 Viktoria Helgesson
16 1975 Mae Berenice Meite
17 1940 Haruka Imai
18 1802 Courtney Hicks
19 1697 Christina Gao
20 1689 Zijun Li*
21 1643 Joshi Helgesson
22 1620 Amelie Lacoste (reportedly retired)
23 1595 Mirai Nagasu*
25 1557 Samantha Cesario
26 1498 Agnes Zawadzki
27 1450 Nikol Gosviani
28 1377 Alena Leonova*
None of the Jr. World medalists are old enough for GP except for Radionova.
Possible host picks:
USA: Gracie Gold will headline. Other possible choices: Samantha Cesario, Barbie Long, Hannah Miller, Mariah Bell, Ashley Cain, Leah Keiser
CAN: Kaetlyn Osmond will headline. Other choices: Gabrielle Daleman, Alaine Chartrand
CHN: Zijun Li will likely headline. Other choices: Kexin Zhang
FRA: Mae Bernice Meite, Yrette Silete (I miss her!), Anais Vertrand and Laurine Lecavelier
RUS: Adelina Sotnikova could headline this, other picks: Liza Tuktamysheva.
JPN: Sakato Miyahara, Haruka Imai
Unless there are major changes, there are 60 spots total in singles and 48 spots in pairs and dance. The announcement for the upcoming GP season is not yet up, so for now I'll use last year's announcement as reference:
http://isu.sportcentric.net/db//files/serve.php?id=4555
Top 12 get two spots (though it's not clear that with retirements wither people who are below the 12 would get moved up). For the sake of this exercise, I'll just stick to what I know till I can confirm.
Let's start with the men:
Top 12 at Worlds (2 spots automatically):
1.) Yuzuru Hanyu
2.) Tatsuki Machida
3.) Javier Fernandez
4.) Maxim Kovtun
5.) Jeremy Abbott -- RETIRING (??? per recent interview)
6.) Takahiko Kozuka
7.) Han Yan
8.) Max Aaron
9.) Chafik Bessenghier
10.) Tomas Verner -- RETIRING
11.) Kevin Reynolds
12.) Nam Nguyen
13.) Ivan Righini (will move up in top 12 due to Tomas Verner's retirement)
14.) Peter Liebers (likely w. Abbott's retirement)
With the retirements that takes up a least 24 of the 60 spots
Top 24 SB is guaranteed at least 1 spot likely good shot at 2. For the same of this exercise, not including those who already earned spots via Worlds placement:
1.) Patrick Chan 295.27 -- will not compete in 2014-2015 GP
7.) Denis Ten 255.10
8.) Sergei Voronov 252.55
12.) Jason Brown 243.09
13.) Takahiko Mura 242.56
14.) Adam Rippon 241.24
18.) Konstantin Menshov 237.24
19.) Michal Brezina 236.98
20.) Nan Song 236.09
23.) Alexander Majorov 224.86
24.) Richard Dornbush 224.44
Also top 24 World ranking (again not accounting those who got 2 spots via Worlds ) is also guaranteed at least one spot * also top 24 SB
3.) Patrick Chan: 2,614* -- will not compete in 2014-2015
4.) Denis Ten: 2,255*
7.) Takahito Mura: 1981*
8.) Richard Dornbush: 1779*
9.) Sergei Vornov: 1716*
10.) Konstantin Menshov: 1688*
15.) Boyang Jin: 1487
17.) Alexander Majorov: 1399*
18.) Michael Christian Martinez: 1363
19.) Michal Brezina: 1345*
20.) Jason Brown: 1293*
23.)Nan Song: 1234*
24.) Florent Amodio: 1226
They will definitely take at least 1 spot (37 total)...
Nathan Chen and Adian Pitkeev will get at least one spot as Jr. World Medalist. (2; 39 total)
So now we have 41 spots left, which can go a number of ways:
1.) A second spot can be reward to the Top 24 SB/WR/Jr. Medalists who did not get two guaranteed spots at Worlds.
2.) Skaters who represent host countries of the six events
3.) Skaters who are not in the Top 24 SB/WR but are within the top 75 SB scores.
Next 9 below the top 24 in SB not accounted for above:
32.) Jinlin Guan 214.26
33.) Jorik Hendrix 214.04
35.) Ivan Righini 213.09
36.) Artur Gachinski 211.49
37.) Alexei Bychenko 211.24
38.) Alexander Petrov 210.03
39.) Keiji Tanaka 210.02
40.) Jeremy Ten 208.51
41.) Shoma Uno 206.50
Some possible host picks.
United States (Skate America): Despite likely qualifying for two spots on his own, Jason Brown will likely be picked. Candidates for host picks: Douglas Razzano, Joshua Farris, Nathan Chen and Ross Miner (#50 at 196.89) getting the host pick.
Canada (Skate Canada): Nam Nguyen and Kevin Reynolds already have 2 spots. Chan will likely go to Skate Canada if he opts to compete in the GP. Otherwise Reynolds may end up there. Jeremy Ten, Eladj Balde (205.19 #42) and Andrei Rogozine (197.35, #48) are possible host picks.
China (Cup of China): I still see Yan Han going to Cup of China as a headliner. The other two slots will likely go to skaters who wouldn't get an invite without. Jinlin Guan is a possibility. Maybe Boyang Jin since he's not in the top 24 and doesn't have a guaranteed spot. Or He Zhang (#53) 191.16if he moves up to seniors.
France (Trophee Eric Bompard): Florent Amodio perhaps and then two other guys...??
Japan (NHK Trophy): I can see Keiji Tanaka, Shoma Uno or Ryuju Hino (#47 with 199.64) as host picks. Yuzuru Hanyu will likely get picked here as a headliner.
Russia (Rostelecom Cup): Maxim Kovtun will likely headline here. Adien Pitkeev, Artur Gachinski, Alexander Petrov or Artur Dmitriev (#45 201.74) or Mikhail Koyada (#46 201.26) are good candidate for host picks if it's not taken up by Menshov, Vornov,
Other possible picks from the Top 50 SB (will likely require WD from those above them):
43.) Misha Ge 203.26
44.) Jin Seo Kim 202.26
48.) Michael Christian Martinez 198.82
Ladies
Top 12 at Worlds get 2 spots (24)
1.) Mao Asada -- likely not doing GP
2.) Julia Lipnitskaia
3.) Carolina Kostner -- retiring
4.) Anna Pogorilaya
5.) Gracie Gold
6.) Akiko Suzuki -- retired
7.) Ashley Wagner
8.) Polina Edmunds
9.) So Youn Park
10.) Kanako Murakami --retiring?
11.) Kaetlyn Osmond
12.) Nathalie Weinzierl
Subsitutes for top 12 (if retirements happen)
13.) Gabrielle Daleman
14.) Joshi Helgesson
15.) Mae Bernice Meite
Top 24 SB gets one spot (those already qualified for two at Worlds not included or those too young for GP);
1.) Adelina Sotnikova 224.59
10.) Elena Radionova 194.29
13.) Satoko Miyahara 186.53
15.) Zijun Li 181.56
19.) Alena Leonova 178.15
20.) Elizaveta Tuktamysheva 176.75
22.) Haruka Imai 175.40
23.) Mirai Nagasu 175.37
24.) Mae Bernice Meite 174.53
--- next five
25.) Christina Gao 173.69
27.) Samantha Cesario 172.70
29.) Courtney Hicks 169.99
31.) Hae Jin Kim 166.84
32.) Alaine Chartrand 165.19
Top 24 WR (after 2011-2012 season removed; thanks Chuckm for stats; again not including top 12 from Worlds; * indicates season best score) --
3 3182 Adelina Sotnikova*
6 2793 Elena Radionova*
12 2302 Satoko Miyahara*
14 2086 Elizaveta Tuktamysheva*
15 1995 Viktoria Helgesson
16 1975 Mae Berenice Meite
17 1940 Haruka Imai
18 1802 Courtney Hicks
19 1697 Christina Gao
20 1689 Zijun Li*
21 1643 Joshi Helgesson
22 1620 Amelie Lacoste (reportedly retired)
23 1595 Mirai Nagasu*
25 1557 Samantha Cesario
26 1498 Agnes Zawadzki
27 1450 Nikol Gosviani
28 1377 Alena Leonova*
None of the Jr. World medalists are old enough for GP except for Radionova.
Possible host picks:
USA: Gracie Gold will headline. Other possible choices: Samantha Cesario, Barbie Long, Hannah Miller, Mariah Bell, Ashley Cain, Leah Keiser
CAN: Kaetlyn Osmond will headline. Other choices: Gabrielle Daleman, Alaine Chartrand
CHN: Zijun Li will likely headline. Other choices: Kexin Zhang
FRA: Mae Bernice Meite, Yrette Silete (I miss her!), Anais Vertrand and Laurine Lecavelier
RUS: Adelina Sotnikova could headline this, other picks: Liza Tuktamysheva.
JPN: Sakato Miyahara, Haruka Imai
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