2014-2015 GP predictions | Page 3 | Golden Skate

2014-2015 GP predictions

sabinbenea

Rinkside
Joined
Mar 30, 2014
For Canada (sorry for my bad english)
Do not make the same mistake with Nam Nguyen as you did with Patrick. It is wrong to tell a boy so young that it is the best. It is not good neither for him nor for Canada. This boy needs competition in his country. You have, and you've had on Kevin and you laughed at him. Big mistake. This boy had no money has ever had Patrick. Yet he performed as he could. And what performance! I think he is training himself. His coach.... If you would have appreciated more, than he and Patrick were unbeatable that would have competed with each of them in the country. No one would have said that Patrick is overrated and nobody would be allowed to underestimate Kevin abroad. When Patrick is not in the mood to skate how are you ? Then hope that Kevin does something. May last for several years. Until a new generation comes stronger be more supporters with him. Surely he will appreciate and will serve until then.
 

Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!
Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 27, 2009
Not to mention that they seem to be having a lot of fun and enjoying the experience! Meryl, in particular. I think they both knew they gave it their all at the Olympics and knew it would be difficult to peak again. I think they value preserving integrity when they perform, so they probably didn't want to do a subpar performance at Worlda, even if they would have won easily.
 

emdee

Final Flight
Joined
Feb 27, 2012
Did you see JrWorlds Champion Nam Nguyen at Worlds? Not so good result.
Something about this - Pitkeev at Senior Internationals.
At JGP he may pretend to Medal of Final.

At 15 Nam is younger than a number of those in junior and very young for senior mens ( judging by those who were before him at worlds) so I dont think his result at worlds was bad for his age.
In fact it was likely beyond his expectations. He may have a quad bynext year and I am told is a consistent skater so who knows.
 

kresslia

Medalist
Joined
Jan 11, 2014
Brian Orser wanted Nam in the top 15, top 12 ideally. And that goal was met. They both have gotta be very happy with that. He's 15... top 12 is a GREAT result for him. I do recall reading that Nam will work on a quad over the summer, as mentioned, so we'll see if he has that ready for next season.
 

chuckm

Record Breaker
Joined
Aug 31, 2003
Country
United-States
Let's not forget that after the last competition of the year is over (this weekend), the ISU will scrub the World Rankings, removing the 2011-2012 data, and the 2012-2013 data will be reduced to 70% of its current value. That could affect the standings of skaters/teams in the top 24 who have scored most of their high points in years prior to the current season but for some reason did not compete or had limited success in the current season.

Also, there are some junior skaters who potentially could move up to the GP but may prefer to continue in the JGP.

The new age rules require that skaters must be 15 by July 1st to compete in the GP.
 

phaeljones

On the Ice
Joined
Apr 18, 2012
Hopefully! The crowds there love her. Although, the judges will also be harder on her flutz -- which perhaps she can get sorted out next season.

I'd love for Julia to be the next skater after Mao to win every one of the Grand Prix events. :biggrin:

If Julia is going to NHK, then Yuzuru HAS to be there so that they skate together as a pair in the gala. :)
 

Sam-Skwantch

“I solemnly swear I’m up to no good”
Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 29, 2013
Country
United-States
Let's not forget that after the last competition of the year is over (this weekend), the ISU will scrub the World Rankings, removing the 2011-2012 data, and the 2012-2013 data will be reduced to 70% of its current value. That could affect the standings of skaters/teams in the top 24 who have scored most of their high points in years prior to the current season but for some reason did not compete or had limited success in the current season.

Oops....

Here are the current world standings!! I think Yulia will beat out Sotnikova and if Mao and Caro retire be the overall #1. I didn't break out a calculator though and just eyeballed it.

http://www.isuresults.com/ws/ws/wsladies.htm
 

chuckm

Record Breaker
Joined
Aug 31, 2003
Country
United-States
Oops....

Here are the current world standings!! I think Yulia will beat out Sotnikova and if Mao and Caro retire be the overall #1. I didn't break out a calculator though and just eyeballed it.

http://www.isuresults.com/ws/ws/wsladies.htm

I took a quick look at the data, removing 2011-12 and reducing 2012-13 to 70% of its value. Here's what I got for the top 24, leaving in potential and actual retirees:

1 3920 Mao Asada (not doing GP)
2 3419 Julia Lipnitskaia
3 3182 Adelina Sotnikova
4 3021 Ashley Wagner
5 2853 Akiko Suzuki (retired)
6 2793 Elena Radionova
7 2771 Gracie Gold
8 2762 Carolina Kostner (probably retiring)
9 2404 Anna Pogorilaya
10 2389 Kanako Murakami
11 2345 YuNa Kim (retired)
12 2302 Satoko Miyahara
13 2178 Valentina Marchei
14 2086 Elizaveta Tuktamysheva
15 1995 Viktoria Helgesson
16 1975 Mae Berenice Meite
17 1940 Haruka Imai
18 1802 Courtney Hicks
19 1697 Christina Gao
20 1689 Zijun Li
21 1643 Joshi Helgesson
22 1620 Amelie Lacoste (reportedly retired)
23 1595 Mirai Nagasu
24 1584 Nathalie Weinzierl
25 1557 Samantha Cesario
26 1498 Agnes Zawadzki
27 1450 Nikol Gosviani
28 1377 Alena Leonova
 

Sam-Skwantch

“I solemnly swear I’m up to no good”
Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 29, 2013
Country
United-States
Wow!! Good job and thank you for your efforts!!
 

Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!
Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 27, 2009
Thanks chuckm for the reminder to change my rankings based on scrubbing previous years. It makes a big difference.
 

YesWay

四年もかけて&#
Record Breaker
Joined
Sep 28, 2013
But Fin Cup doesn't have gala right?
Disappointingly, this is true (so far).

Hanyu and Lipnitskaia haven't been there "every year", but they have the last two years. No guarantee either of them will go there again this year, or any other year - perhaps they are "too big" now :-D

It would be a real coup for Finlandia if they do though - Olympic and World medallists. Tickets might suddenly become hard to get. And expensive :p

They also don't have a Pairs competition so far... just Mens and Ladies singles, Ice Dance... and Synchronised.
 

MsLiinaLii

Final Flight
Joined
Mar 8, 2013
Disappointingly, this is true (so far).

Hanyu and Lipnitskaia haven't been there "every year", but they have the last two years. No guarantee either of them will go there again this year, or any other year - perhaps they are "too big" now :-D

It would be a real coup for Finlandia if they do though - Olympic and World medallists. Tickets might suddenly become hard to get. And expensive :p

They also don't have a Pairs competition so far... just Mens and Ladies singles, Ice Dance... and Synchronised.
Praying for Julia to be there! My trip was cancelled this season due to personal reasons, so fingers crossed for next season!
 

gotoschool

Medalist
Joined
Mar 5, 2014
I took a quick look at the data, removing 2011-12 and reducing 2012-13 to 70% of its value. Here's what I got for the top 24, leaving in potential and actual retirees:

1 3920 Mao Asada (not doing GP)
2 3419 Julia Lipnitskaia
3 3182 Adelina Sotnikova
4 3021 Ashley Wagner
5 2853 Akiko Suzuki (retired)
6 2793 Elena Radionova
7 2771 Gracie Gold
8 2762 Carolina Kostner (probably retiring)
9 2404 Anna Pogorilaya
10 2389 Kanako Murakami
11 2345 YuNa Kim (retired)
12 2302 Satoko Miyahara
13 2178 Valentina Marchei
14 2086 Elizaveta Tuktamysheva
15 1995 Viktoria Helgesson
16 1975 Mae Berenice Meite
17 1940 Haruka Imai
18 1802 Courtney Hicks
19 1697 Christina Gao
20 1689 Zijun Li
21 1643 Joshi Helgesson
22 1620 Amelie Lacoste (reportedly retired)
23 1595 Mirai Nagasu
24 1584 Nathalie Weinzierl
25 1557 Samantha Cesario
26 1498 Agnes Zawadzki
27 1450 Nikol Gosviani
28 1377 Alena Leonova

I noticed you indicated that Mao Asada is not doing the Grand Prix this year. Where did you hear about this or are you just guessing? Thanks in advance for letting us know.
 

sky_fly20

Match Penalty
Joined
Nov 20, 2011
I noticed you indicated that Mao Asada is not doing the Grand Prix this year. Where did you hear about this or are you just guessing? Thanks in advance for letting us know.

Mao Asada wants to take a break
but hasn't announced retirement yet
 

chuckm

Record Breaker
Joined
Aug 31, 2003
Country
United-States
Russia won't be able to send any of the baby Russians from last year's JGPF to the GP this year because none of them are old enough, with the new age rules in place. I guess that means Alena Leonova may still get a GP event or two.
 
Joined
Apr 17, 2013
Actually this is a great season for lower ranked skaters to get 1 or even 2 GP assignments, including Leonova. *IF* Mao skips, and Caro and Akiko retire, that leaves just three of the top 6 for seeding. Same with seasons best and world rankings. Most of these remaining skaters are duplicates on both lists.
 

Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!
Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 27, 2009
Just updated my original post with ladies projections...let me know if I need to change anything...
 

Ryan O

Final Flight
Joined
Mar 5, 2004
Country
Canada
For dance, once the 2011/12 points are removed, the top 26 will look like this :-

1 4330 Meryl DAVIS / Charlie WHITE
2 3990 Tessa VIRTUE / Scott MOIR
3 3495 Ekaterina BOBROVA / Dmitri SOLOVIEV
4 3462 Anna CAPPELLINI / Luca LANOTTE
5 3370 Kaitlyn WEAVER / Andrew POJE
6 3250 Nathalie PECHALAT / Fabian BOURZAT
7 2911 Elena ILINYKH / Nikita KATSALAPOV
8 2643 Madison CHOCK / Evan BATES
9 2394 Nelli ZHIGANSHINA / Alexander GAZSI
10 2236 Madison HUBBELL / Zachary DONOHUE
11 2217 Maia SHIBUTANI / Alex SHIBUTANI
12 2192 Ekaterina RIAZANOVA / Ilia TKACHENKO
13 2184 Piper GILLES / Paul POIRIER
14 2182 Penny COOMES / Nicholas BUCKLAND
15 2163 Julia ZLOBINA / Alexei SITNIKOV
16 1957 Gabriella PAPADAKIS / Guillaume CIZERON
17 1844 Charlene GUIGNARD / Marco FABBRI
18 1750 Pernelle CARRON / Lloyd JONES
19 1630 Nicole ORFORD / Thomas WILLIAMS
20 1621 Victoria SINITSINA / Ruslan ZHIGANSHIN
21 1599 Alexandra ALDRIDGE / Daniel EATON
22 1524 Kaitlin HAWAYEK / Jean-Luc BAKER
23 1509 Cathy REED / Chris REED
24 1463 Tanja KOLBE / Stefano CARUSO
25 1394 Ksenia MONKO / Kirill KHALIAVIN
26 1386 Anna YANOVSKAYA / Sergey MOZGOV

The points system is kind of weird though, because it's an amalgam of different results from different competitions. Usually people think of ranking in terms of where someone last finished at the Worlds or Olympics. There are also several dance teams on that list that didn't even compete at Worlds (eg. Orford/Williams, Hubbell/Donohue, etc.)

For example, the weird thing about seeing Orford & Williams on that ranking list is that they finished 5th at Nationals this year and haven't even been to a World Championships yet, and had a TES score that was too low to even be named as alternates. Meanwhile, Paul & Islam, who finished ahead of them at Nationals and went to Worlds, don't even make this list. But I guess that's what happens when you're a team that hasn't had many GP events or been to 4 Continents recently, etc.

Who makes it into the Top 26 if D&W and V&M retire as expected, along with P&B who have already said they will do so?
 
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