2014-2015 GP predictions | Golden Skate

2014-2015 GP predictions

Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!
Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 27, 2009
Eh, I'm up and it's almost the end of the season...which means time to speculate for next season.

Unless there are major changes, there are 60 spots total in singles and 48 spots in pairs and dance. The announcement for the upcoming GP season is not yet up, so for now I'll use last year's announcement as reference:
http://isu.sportcentric.net/db//files/serve.php?id=4555

Top 12 get two spots (though it's not clear that with retirements wither people who are below the 12 would get moved up). For the sake of this exercise, I'll just stick to what I know till I can confirm.

Let's start with the men:

Top 12 at Worlds (2 spots automatically):
1.) Yuzuru Hanyu
2.) Tatsuki Machida
3.) Javier Fernandez
4.) Maxim Kovtun
5.) Jeremy Abbott -- RETIRING (??? per recent interview)
6.) Takahiko Kozuka
7.) Han Yan
8.) Max Aaron
9.) Chafik Bessenghier
10.) Tomas Verner -- RETIRING
11.) Kevin Reynolds
12.) Nam Nguyen
13.) Ivan Righini (will move up in top 12 due to Tomas Verner's retirement)
14.) Peter Liebers (likely w. Abbott's retirement)

With the retirements that takes up a least 24 of the 60 spots

Top 24 SB is guaranteed at least 1 spot likely good shot at 2. For the same of this exercise, not including those who already earned spots via Worlds placement:
1.) Patrick Chan 295.27 -- will not compete in 2014-2015 GP
7.) Denis Ten 255.10
8.) Sergei Voronov 252.55
12.) Jason Brown 243.09
13.) Takahiko Mura 242.56
14.) Adam Rippon 241.24
18.) Konstantin Menshov 237.24
19.) Michal Brezina 236.98
20.) Nan Song 236.09
23.) Alexander Majorov 224.86
24.) Richard Dornbush 224.44

Also top 24 World ranking (again not accounting those who got 2 spots via Worlds ) is also guaranteed at least one spot * also top 24 SB

3.) Patrick Chan: 2,614* -- will not compete in 2014-2015
4.) Denis Ten: 2,255*
7.) Takahito Mura: 1981*
8.) Richard Dornbush: 1779*
9.) Sergei Vornov: 1716*
10.) Konstantin Menshov: 1688*
15.) Boyang Jin: 1487
17.) Alexander Majorov: 1399*
18.) Michael Christian Martinez: 1363
19.) Michal Brezina: 1345*
20.) Jason Brown: 1293*
23.)Nan Song: 1234*
24.) Florent Amodio: 1226

They will definitely take at least 1 spot (37 total)...

Nathan Chen and Adian Pitkeev will get at least one spot as Jr. World Medalist. (2; 39 total)

So now we have 41 spots left, which can go a number of ways:

1.) A second spot can be reward to the Top 24 SB/WR/Jr. Medalists who did not get two guaranteed spots at Worlds.
2.) Skaters who represent host countries of the six events
3.) Skaters who are not in the Top 24 SB/WR but are within the top 75 SB scores.

Next 9 below the top 24 in SB not accounted for above:
32.) Jinlin Guan 214.26
33.) Jorik Hendrix 214.04
35.) Ivan Righini 213.09
36.) Artur Gachinski 211.49
37.) Alexei Bychenko 211.24
38.) Alexander Petrov 210.03
39.) Keiji Tanaka 210.02
40.) Jeremy Ten 208.51
41.) Shoma Uno 206.50


Some possible host picks.
United States (Skate America): Despite likely qualifying for two spots on his own, Jason Brown will likely be picked. Candidates for host picks: Douglas Razzano, Joshua Farris, Nathan Chen and Ross Miner (#50 at 196.89) getting the host pick.

Canada (Skate Canada): Nam Nguyen and Kevin Reynolds already have 2 spots. Chan will likely go to Skate Canada if he opts to compete in the GP. Otherwise Reynolds may end up there. Jeremy Ten, Eladj Balde (205.19 #42) and Andrei Rogozine (197.35, #48) are possible host picks.

China (Cup of China): I still see Yan Han going to Cup of China as a headliner. The other two slots will likely go to skaters who wouldn't get an invite without. Jinlin Guan is a possibility. Maybe Boyang Jin since he's not in the top 24 and doesn't have a guaranteed spot. Or He Zhang (#53) 191.16if he moves up to seniors.

France (Trophee Eric Bompard): Florent Amodio perhaps and then two other guys...??

Japan (NHK Trophy): I can see Keiji Tanaka, Shoma Uno or Ryuju Hino (#47 with 199.64) as host picks. Yuzuru Hanyu will likely get picked here as a headliner.

Russia (Rostelecom Cup): Maxim Kovtun will likely headline here. Adien Pitkeev, Artur Gachinski, Alexander Petrov or Artur Dmitriev (#45 201.74) or Mikhail Koyada (#46 201.26) are good candidate for host picks if it's not taken up by Menshov, Vornov,

Other possible picks from the Top 50 SB (will likely require WD from those above them):
43.) Misha Ge 203.26
44.) Jin Seo Kim 202.26
48.) Michael Christian Martinez 198.82

Ladies

Top 12 at Worlds get 2 spots (24)
1.) Mao Asada -- likely not doing GP
2.) Julia Lipnitskaia
3.) Carolina Kostner -- retiring
4.) Anna Pogorilaya
5.) Gracie Gold
6.) Akiko Suzuki -- retired
7.) Ashley Wagner
8.) Polina Edmunds
9.) So Youn Park
10.) Kanako Murakami --retiring?
11.) Kaetlyn Osmond
12.) Nathalie Weinzierl

Subsitutes for top 12 (if retirements happen)
13.) Gabrielle Daleman
14.) Joshi Helgesson
15.) Mae Bernice Meite

Top 24 SB gets one spot (those already qualified for two at Worlds not included or those too young for GP);
1.) Adelina Sotnikova 224.59
10.) Elena Radionova 194.29
13.) Satoko Miyahara 186.53
15.) Zijun Li 181.56
19.) Alena Leonova 178.15
20.) Elizaveta Tuktamysheva 176.75
22.) Haruka Imai 175.40
23.) Mirai Nagasu 175.37
24.) Mae Bernice Meite 174.53
--- next five
25.) Christina Gao 173.69
27.) Samantha Cesario 172.70
29.) Courtney Hicks 169.99
31.) Hae Jin Kim 166.84
32.) Alaine Chartrand 165.19

Top 24 WR (after 2011-2012 season removed; thanks Chuckm for stats; again not including top 12 from Worlds; * indicates season best score) --
3 3182 Adelina Sotnikova*
6 2793 Elena Radionova*
12 2302 Satoko Miyahara*
14 2086 Elizaveta Tuktamysheva*
15 1995 Viktoria Helgesson
16 1975 Mae Berenice Meite
17 1940 Haruka Imai
18 1802 Courtney Hicks
19 1697 Christina Gao
20 1689 Zijun Li*
21 1643 Joshi Helgesson
22 1620 Amelie Lacoste (reportedly retired)
23 1595 Mirai Nagasu*
25 1557 Samantha Cesario
26 1498 Agnes Zawadzki
27 1450 Nikol Gosviani
28 1377 Alena Leonova*

None of the Jr. World medalists are old enough for GP except for Radionova.

Possible host picks:

USA: Gracie Gold will headline. Other possible choices: Samantha Cesario, Barbie Long, Hannah Miller, Mariah Bell, Ashley Cain, Leah Keiser
CAN: Kaetlyn Osmond will headline. Other choices: Gabrielle Daleman, Alaine Chartrand
CHN: Zijun Li will likely headline. Other choices: Kexin Zhang
FRA: Mae Bernice Meite, Yrette Silete (I miss her!), Anais Vertrand and Laurine Lecavelier
RUS: Adelina Sotnikova could headline this, other picks: Liza Tuktamysheva.
JPN: Sakato Miyahara, Haruka Imai
 
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jaylee

Medalist
Joined
Feb 21, 2010
I read on FSU that per an interview, Patrick Chan will definitely not be on the GP, but 2015 Nationals is still a possibility.
 

tulosai

Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 21, 2011
I thought the top 24 in terms of world ranking are also guaranteed 1 spot each?
 
Last edited by a moderator:

Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!
Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 27, 2009
I read on FSU that per an interview, Patrick Chan will definitely not be on the GP, but 2015 Nationals is still a possibility.

Thanks for the info..I"ll take his name out for consideration.
 
Joined
Jul 30, 2012
Country
Russia
Some of young boys (Petrov, Pitkeev, Nathan Chen, Shoma Uno, Nam Nguyen, some others may be) may prefer JGP instead of GP. They have real chance for medals and Final of JGP, not of GP.
 

Mista Ekko

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 9, 2009
Great effort Mrs. P, Thanks so much for that.

Before i dive into this to really understand, Ill ask you just one thing :)

What are the odds for Alexei Bychenko of getting 2 spots, Or one for that matter at the next GP?

I'm not sure what his World standing would be after Worlds, or if it's even calculated after worlds (And not after GPF)

He was:

5th at Nebelhron
4th at Golden spin
10th at Europeans
21st at Olympics
15th at Worlds

Seeing he's from Israel i bet he won't get recommendations if anyone withdraws :\
 
Joined
Jul 30, 2012
Country
Russia
Order of granting spots is as follows.

1. Home spots of Organizing Members - 3 spots total, two are filled at initial designation, one may be filled at early September.
2. Top 12 of Worlds - 2 spots for each.
3. Not mentioned above of Top 24 of WR - one spot for each.
3. Not mentioned above of Top 3 of JrWorlds and winner of JGP Final - one spot for each.
4. Not mentioned above of Top 24 of Season Best - one spot for each.
If there are free spots after that (they always are) - these spots are distributed only on Season Best.
Sometimes they solve to give second spot them who has one, sometimes to give one spot to skaters who have place lower than 24 in Season Best table.
 

BusyMom

Medalist
Joined
Jan 10, 2014
Some of young boys (Petrov, Pitkeev, Nathan Chen, Shoma Uno, Nam Nguyen, some others may be) may prefer JGP instead of GP. They have real chance for medals and Final of JGP, not of GP.
Shoma still needs to up his technical, at least 3A. The Japanese senior slots might not be for him this year. Chen, from what I heard, he'll stay for another year. I think Nam want to go full frontal to the senior now he flair well at World.

AlexRus. What do you think about Russian Kids? You have so many info about the Russian youngsters. I'll wait for your opinions. Glad to see someone put their interests in the up-and-coming skaters as well.
 
Joined
Jul 30, 2012
Country
Russia
What are the odds for Alexei Bychenko of getting 2 spots, Or one for that matter at the next GP?

I'm not sure what his World standing would be after Worlds
Now he is 43rd, will be some higher, but not at Top24.
So his only chance for GP is Season Best, where he is 37th. He may get one spot, and may have chance to second, because many skaters withdraw after this season.
 

Mista Ekko

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 9, 2009
Now he is 43rd, will be some higher, but not at Top24.
So his only chance for GP is Season Best, where he is 37th. He may get one spot, and may have chance to second, because many skaters withdraw after this season.

Thanks for checking ;)

Crossing my fingers
 
Joined
Jul 30, 2012
Country
Russia
AlexRus. What do you think about Russian Kids? You have so many info about the Russian youngsters. I'll wait for your opinions. Glad to see someone put their interests in the up-and-coming skaters as well.
I believe only elder Men (of them who now are Juniors) may pretend to GP Events.
Younger (Petrov, Samarin, Pitkeev etc) will prefer JGP.
Elder are - Kvitelashvili (59th in Season Best) and Kolyada (46th in Season Best), they will not be eligible for JGP by age (both born at first half of 1995). One of them may have home spot.
 

BusyMom

Medalist
Joined
Jan 10, 2014
I believe only elder Men (of them who now are Juniors) may pretend to GP Events.
Younger (Petrov, Samarin, Pitkeev etc) will prefer JGP.
Elder are - Kvitelashvili (59th in Season Best) and Kolyada (46th in Season Best), they will not be eligible for JGP by age (both born at first half of 1995). One of them may have home spot.
I thought Pitkeev did pretty well in National. Why wait?
 
Joined
Jul 30, 2012
Country
Russia
I thought Pitkeev did pretty well in National. Why wait?
Did you see JrWorlds Champion Nam Nguyen at Worlds? Not so good result.
Something about this - Pitkeev at Senior Internationals.
At JGP he may pretend to Medal of Final.
 

BusyMom

Medalist
Joined
Jan 10, 2014
Did you see JrWorlds Champion Nam Nguyen at Worlds? Not so good result.
Something about this - Pitkeev at Senior Internationals.
At JGP he may pretend to Medal of Final.
Nam's expectation is only finished within the Top15. He seems happy with the result. Right now Canada need him in senior more. But I see your point with Pitkeev.
 

Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!
Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 27, 2009
Order of granting spots is as follows.

1. Home spots of Organizing Members - 3 spots total, two are filled at initial designation, one may be filled at early September.
2. Top 12 of Worlds - 2 spots for each.
3. Not mentioned above of Top 24 of WR - one spot for each.
3. Not mentioned above of Top 3 of JrWorlds and winner of JGP Final - one spot for each.
4. Not mentioned above of Top 24 of Season Best - one spot for each.
If there are free spots after that (they always are) - these spots are distributed only on Season Best.
Sometimes they solve to give second spot them who has one, sometimes to give one spot to skaters who have place lower than 24 in Season Best table.

Thanks for this..I'll revise again! It's hard to keep track of all the rules.
 

phaeljones

On the Ice
Joined
Apr 18, 2012
Nam's expectation is only finished within the Top15. He seems happy with the result. Right now Canada need him in senior more. But I see your point with Pitkeev.

Yes. It is a really strange situation that Canada has.

I am sure that Orser will guide (and protect) Nam to make the right choice for Nam, but Canada is in such a dead zone right now while we wait for the next wave, I would guess that they are trying their best to persuade Nam to step up.

Watching the junior worlds, and seeing the interaction of the junior skaters amongst each other (they really seem to get along), and getting the impression that the wave of junior skaters coming up (take any of Nathan Chen, Pitkeev, Boyang Jin, Shoma Uno) is going to be like a tidal wave (seriously, bank on it) when it hits seniors, it would kind of break my heart to see Nam separated away from juniors.

Juniors is amazing to watch for men right now (can't get that chatanooga choo choo song out of my head, thank you very much Mr. Chen).

Regarding the U.S. GP event, I would be very surprised if both Hanyu and Brown aren't there together, and those tickets have to be worth their weight in gold.
 

Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!
Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 27, 2009
Regarding the U.S. GP event, I would be very surprised if both Hanyu and Brown aren't there together, and those tickets have to be worth their weight in gold.


Interesting. Why do you think Yuzuru will end up at Skate America? Do you think they're going to sell SA2014 as the next generation edition?
 

phaeljones

On the Ice
Joined
Apr 18, 2012
Interesting. Why do you think Yuzuru will end up at Skate America? Do you think they're going to sell SA2014 as the next generation edition?

Just a hunch.

Hanyu's pattern, other than his first and second year in seniors, for grand prix preliminary events seems to be not to go to the same place two years in row, and, for events generally over the year, to have as broad of a competitive experience and exposure geographically as possible. I don't know if he does that always intentionally, but it seems to be noticeably a pattern for him. For next season, if he does not go to Skate America or Skate Canada (worlds are Shanghai, GPF is in Barcelona and 4CC is in Seoul), he will have no competitions at all in North America. I think that, unless he had to go somewhere else, he would want one event in North America. I don't think that he will want to do Skate Canada two years in a row. I think, unless overruled, he will choose Skate America. I know there are other considerations, but those considerations (like Skate America having a good field) would seem to support going to Skate America (he is not afraid of competing against anyone) rather than not going there. I don't have inside information of how Hanyu thinks or strategizes. He is full of surprises and wiser at what he does than any of his critics, competitors or fans who think they have him figured out or second guess him. So admittedly it is just a hunch from having followed him very closely for the last four years. (And I could be wrong.)

I know that ultimately it is the federations and the ISU who decide who goes where, but if there is one skater who probably gets his first choices, I would put my money on it that the skater is Hanyu.

As for Skate America, the USFSA wants to do two things. First, it wants its own skaters to qualify for GPF, and second it wants a big draw for its own events. This year, it also has a free hand because it is not restricted by the 1-2-3 and 4-5-6 protocol (providing Abbott retires . . . forever the monkey wrench is Mr. Abbott). It can invite whoever it wants, and Hanyu is a fantastic choice along with their own Jason Brown.

Hanyu and Brown are the perfect combination because, despite their individual dominating personalities and over-the-top charisma, put on the same rink together neither of these two detracts from the other. They seem to make each other look better and skate better, and they are both really great pr for the sport. They are both the real deal. I am not sure how Skate America will market it, but having them together would certainly present a lot of great possibilities. It just makes sense to me.
 

pangtongfan

Match Penalty
Joined
Jun 16, 2010
Yes. It is a really strange situation that Canada has.

I am sure that Orser will guide (and protect) Nam to make the right choice for Nam, but Canada is in such a dead zone right now while we wait for the next wave, I would guess that they are trying their best to persuade Nam to step up.

Watching the junior worlds, and seeing the interaction of the junior skaters amongst each other (they really seem to get along), and getting the impression that the wave of junior skaters coming up (take any of Nathan Chen, Pitkeev, Boyang Jin, Shoma Uno) is going to be like a tidal wave (seriously, bank on it) when it hits seniors, it would kind of break my heart to see Nam separated away from juniors.

Juniors is amazing to watch for men right now (can't get that chatanooga choo choo song out of my head, thank you very much Mr. Chen).

Regarding the U.S. GP event, I would be very surprised if both Hanyu and Brown aren't there together, and those tickets have to be worth their weight in gold.

I dont think Skate Canada should push Nam. He can compete with the seniors as worlds showed, but he is also a long way from being a real contender and I could see SC foolishly overhyping him and calling for grand prix medals, and if he doesnt deliver those it being seen as a dissapointment. He should compete in juniors another year, it is best for his development.
 
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