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Thread: 2014-2015 GP predictions

  1. #151
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    If a skater has a choice, she shall avoid China because of air pollution. Overall poor performances of last year should be attributed to it. So it's very likely that China will be a leftover. Lipnitskaya has the first choice but Russia seems to be a jinx for her (save for the Team event). The Russian federation may want to give preferences to Sotnikova, in that case Lipnitskaya could be out of it anyway. If she wants to "sweep" GP titles, this year could be the only chance as far as NHK trophy is concerned.

    assuming Kostner is not doing GP

    Lipnitskaya SC and NHK
    Pogorilaya Russia and TEB
    Gold SA and China

  2. #152
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    Quote Originally Posted by CanadianSkaterGuy View Post
    Although I'm guessing:
    Lip - CoR, NHK (Russia is where she can rely on an easy win, and NHK she can build her popularity in Japan)
    Pog - SC, TEB (She'll probably get the rough end of the stick, but she had a good experience in TEB last year, and it's a good idea to present Pogo to NA audiences)
    Gold - SA, CoC (USFSA will probably want to give her the greatest chance to make the GPF)
    I basically agree with this. No way Gold isn't a host pick at SA. Lipnitskaia will surely choose NHK - she says she likes Japan, building popularity there is important, and Japan has a depleted ladies' field for the 2014-15 GP circuit so no great risk from a host pick there. However, I'm not as sure about Lip at CoR. Will the Russian fed want to pick Sotnikova as a host pick? If they do, could we then see Lip choosing somewhere else, likely TEB? I do agree Anna will go to SC since Lip was there last year and to get herself over to North America.

  3. #153
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    That isn't how it works. It is NOT true that a skater's federation has true control over where a skater will skate (except for host picks and the top two seeds)

    The hosts first get their host picks (of their own skaters). The way it works out this year, USFS and Russia have the most control.
    Because USFS always has the reigning US Champ at SA, Gold of the top 3 will get a host pick; possibly Edmunds of the second 3 could get picked also.
    Russia could pick Lipnitskaia or Pogo, but not both, as they are in the same tier.

    Then the top 3 seeds are allowed to choose where they want to skate. Neither Lipnitskaia nor Pogo can skate at SA because Gold will be there.
    If Lipnitskaia didn't get picked for CoR, she gets to choose which two of the remaining events (SC, TEB, CoC, NHK) she wants; if she did get picked for CoR, she chooses one of those four events. If Pogo did/didn't get picked for CoR, she gets to choose whichever event/s Lipnitskaia didn't want. Gold gets the event Lipnitskaia and Pogo didn't want.

    Except for one of the US ladies, who could get a host pick, the 4th through 6th seeds are chosen by lot (hosts draw for the order of selection). All the other skaters are selected by the same method. The skater's home federation has no say over where that skater is going to skate (other than the host pick, if available).

  4. #154
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    I will say...

    Yulia - China, NHK

    Pogo - Canada, COR

    Gold - SA, TEB

  5. #155
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    Quote Originally Posted by YLFan View Post
    I will say...

    Yulia - China, NHK

    Pogo - Canada, COR

    Gold - SA, TEB
    I highly doubt the Russian fed would send Yulia to both asian GP events... at least one European GP for her, I'd imagine. If not CoR, then probably TEB.

  6. #156
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    Quote Originally Posted by 96skiluvr View Post
    Just curious, what are people's predictions for how the events will be doled out between Lipnitskaia, Pogorilaya, and Gold?
    Gold obviously for SA, but other than that, I have no idea. Lip or Pogo for RC? Or neither?
    I see Yulia getting CoR and NHK.

    Assuming kostner is out, I think USFS will pick Park and avoid Gracie facing Ash or Polina. Although Polina v Gracie at SA would be worth the price of the all event tickets alone. The other two ladies US host picks will be interesting. My money is on Cesario and one of Cain and Miller. I wholeheartedly doubt they'll pick Mirai but won't be entirely shocked should Zawadski get a nod or Gao should she continue.

    Anyone have guesses for the host picks in other disciplines? I am beyond perplexed with pairs.

  7. #157
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    Quote Originally Posted by flutzy13 View Post
    I am beyond perplexed with pairs.
    Don't worry, you're not alone on that

  8. #158
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    Quote Originally Posted by flutzy13 View Post
    I see Yulia getting CoR and NHK.

    Assuming kostner is out, I think USFS will pick Park and avoid Gracie facing Ash or Polina. Although Polina v Gracie at SA would be worth the price of the all event tickets alone. The other two ladies US host picks will be interesting. My money is on Cesario and one of Cain and Miller. I wholeheartedly doubt they'll pick Mirai but won't be entirely shocked should Zawadski get a nod or Gao should she continue.

    Anyone have guesses for the host picks in other disciplines? I am beyond perplexed with pairs.
    Well, honestly, any fed looking to protect their skaters will be gunning to get So Youn Park. I like So Youn, but she's clearly the most unproven seeded skater right now. Since the 4-6 seeds are selected by the host federations, in order according to lot, it will depend if USFSA gets a good selection slot in the draw. I tend to doubt USFSA wants to match Gracie against another seeded US lady, too, but I could be wrong!

    I'll take a crazy stab at pairs, which as you'll see is maybe not as perplexing as it seems. Here are the apparent seeds:

    Savchenko/Szolkowy (split, he retired, she has new partner)
    1. Stolbova/Klimov
    2. Duhamel/Radford
    Moore-Towers/Moscovitch (split)
    3. Peng/Zhang
    4. Sui/Han
    Bazarova/Larionov (split)
    5. Antipova/Maisuradze
    Berton/Hotarek (rumored split, still don't know if this was confirmed??)
    6. James/Cipres

    With Stolbova/Klimov, Duhamel/Radford, and Peng/Zhang as the apparent top seeds, then it could play out something like this:

    Stolbova/Klimov likely get CoR as a host pick. Now, if Trankov/Volosozhar are skating the GP (are they??) and get chosen as a Russian host pick and S/K doesn't, then what would S/K choose? That's the big question.
    Duhamel/Radford certainly get SC as a host pick.
    Peng/Zhang get CoC as a host pick, they are the top Chinese team after retirements.

    Given that I'm guessing each of the top 3 seeds ends up at their home fed's event, where do we think each team would want to go for their second event?

    Stolbova/Klimov - CoR, NHK? (the big question is which event in addition to CoR would S/K choose? NHK would be my guess, especially as they already did SA last year)
    Duhamel/Radford - SC, TEB? (they have done TEB 3 years in a row, would they want to again??? If, as I guess, S/K choose NHK, then it seems like D/R would rather do TEB yet again than do both North American GPs...???)
    Peng/Zhang - CoC, Skate America (which is what would be left at that point, given my other guesses?)

  9. #159
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    Quote Originally Posted by breathesgelatin View Post
    Stolbova/Klimov likely get CoR as a host pick. Now, if Trankov/Volosozhar are skating the GP (are they??) and get chosen as a Russian host pick and S/K doesn't, then what would S/K choose? That's the big question.
    Wouldn't matter if Volosozhar/Trankov do CoR - S/K can also get it. S/K can get seeded into CoR, and Volosozhar/Trankov can still get one of the other 2 spots at CoR

  10. #160
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    Quote Originally Posted by 96skiluvr View Post
    Wouldn't matter if Volosozhar/Trankov do CoR - S/K can also get it. S/K can get seeded into CoR, and Volosozhar/Trankov can still get one of the other 2 spots at CoR
    I know. But S/K get to choose their fate to some degree.

    If the Russian fed chooses both V/T and S/K as host picks for CoR, it's settled. S/K likely choose NHK as their second event IMO.
    If the Russian fed chooses only S/K as host picks for CoR, it's also settled. S/K still likely choose NHK as their second event.
    If the Russian fed chooses V/T and not S/K as host picks for CoR, what would S/K do in that situation? That is the weirdest/most interesting scenario to imagine. Would they want to go up against V/T at CoR or avoid them, and do two out of NHK/TEB/SA?

  11. #161
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    With the cheap shot that USFS give to Mirai, for not having choose her at least for the worlds team, I hope that they will keep her a place at Skate America, it would make sense to me.

  12. #162
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    Quote Originally Posted by coolboogie22 View Post
    With the cheap shot that USFS give to Mirai, for not having choose her at least for the worlds team, I hope that they will keep her a place at Skate America, it would make sense to me.
    The only way I see this happening is if she aligns with a coach who the federation respects who pushes them on this issue. Otherwise, I don't see them wanting to dredge up any memory of that bad press at their big fall event.

  13. #163
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    Quote Originally Posted by coolboogie22 View Post
    With the cheap shot that USFS give to Mirai, for not having choose her at least for the worlds team, I hope that they will keep her a place at Skate America, it would make sense to me.
    Mirai has high enough SB to get at least one GP regardless of whether she was at Worlds.

  14. #164
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    Quote Originally Posted by flutzy13 View Post
    The only way I see this happening is if she aligns with a coach who the federation respects who pushes them on this issue. Otherwise, I don't see them wanting to dredge up any memory of that bad press at their big fall event.
    If they don't choose her and that NHK decide to choose her again, I would find it ugly because it seems that the other federation have more respect about the body of work and achieve that Mirai makes each year. She win at least a medal each season, it's not like that she is not a good skater.
    If USFS don't give a host spot for Mirai, I hope that 2 others federations give her a spot, she deserve 2 spots!

  15. #165
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    Quote Originally Posted by coolboogie22 View Post
    If they don't choose her and that NHK decide to choose her again, I would find it ugly because it seems that the other federation have more respect about the body of work and achieve that Mirai makes each year. She win at least a medal each season, it's not like that she is not a good skater.
    If USFS don't give a host spot for Mirai, I hope that 2 others federations give her a spot, she deserve 2 spots!
    I think Mirai will get 2 spots in the end. I don't expect one will be at SA.

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