2014-2015 GP predictions | Page 2 | Golden Skate

2014-2015 GP predictions

pangtongfan

Match Penalty
Joined
Jun 16, 2010
One thing Skate Canada and Skate America are excellent at over the years is selecting entries who benefit their home skaters. Basically assembling as weak a field as possible. I am sure that will happen again this year, and both will be very clever, more than any of the grand prixs, to face the home skaters. I dont think you will see Hanyu at Skate America. They will probably pick Brown, but they want to hold out hope of a miracle victory to hype their next big star of the sport (at the Olympics the hype machine on him in the US really began), and they sure as heck wont want Hanyu, a skater he has no hope of beating. They will most likely pick someone like Machida instead.

Weaver & Poje will get SC probably and they will select a team like the Shibutanis as the next seed, assembling an overall weak field to ensure them of their first grand prix win.
Duhamel & Radford will also get SC and SC will do a fine job as they did this season in gathering the weakest field they can buy the rules to ensure them of winning (although they essentialy did that this season but D&R had so many mistakes they lost anyway).
 

BusyMom

Medalist
Joined
Jan 10, 2014
Yes. It is a really strange situation that Canada has.

I am sure that Orser will guide (and protect) Nam to make the right choice for Nam, but Canada is in such a dead zone right now while we wait for the next wave, I would guess that they are trying their best to persuade Nam to step up.

Watching the junior worlds, and seeing the interaction of the junior skaters amongst each other (they really seem to get along), and getting the impression that the wave of junior skaters coming up (take any of Nathan Chen, Pitkeev, Boyang Jin, Shoma Uno) is going to be like a tidal wave (seriously, bank on it) when it hits seniors, it would kind of break my heart to see Nam separated away from juniors.

Juniors is amazing to watch for men right now (can't get that chatanooga choo choo song out of my head, thank you very much Mr. Chen).

Regarding the U.S. GP event, I would be very surprised if both Hanyu and Brown aren't there together, and those tickets have to be worth their weight in gold.
Believe in Orser? Sure. Definitely. The man has a golden touch and very insightful. 3 years ago he said So Youn Park is the one to watch. Look what happen today. When I saw Nam showed up at senior national, I think it might be Orser's idea. Since now PCS scores weight so much more than the past, Nam needs to step up to build his reputation with the judges. Not everyone can pull Jason's acts on their first year.

Just read that Shoma competed in senior level today in Italy. That's the one that surprised me.
 

NMURA

Medalist
Joined
Jul 14, 2010
I think Hanyu "chooses" Skate Canada as long as Orser is with him.
The second event is of course NHK.

Machida - SA and TEB

Fernandez - China and Russia
 

dorispulaski

Wicked Yankee Girl
Joined
Jul 26, 2003
Country
United-States
SkAm is in Chicago-a reasonably close trip for team Orser. Skate Canada is in Kelowna, B.C, which is a lot further from home for them. The Americans are pretty weak, and Yuzuru can easily try out his programs at SkAm, which I think is the first event on the GP list again, and have plenty of time to revise them, if he needs to. If I were Yuzuru, I would go to SkAm. Furthermore, Javi and Yuzuru can't do them same GP because they both medalled at Worlds, which means Orser has to go to 4 GP's. He will surely want one of them to be SkAm, because it is closer to the Cricket Club. Yuzuru will be doing NHK.

Machida can only do NHK if Japan uses a host pick for him. The Japanese fed did that to get Dai and Yuzuru at the same NHK. I can't say whether they will do that for Machida. To maximize his chance for a GPF slot, they surely would want him to compete somewhere Yuzuru is not skating. I'm assuming that Kozuka will do NHK as well.

Kozuka will probably do NHK as his pick
Han Yan gets a pick if Abbott retires; he will surely do CoC.
Kovtun will surely do Russia. I bet the Russians also ask Voronov, and will ask Pitkeev so that he gets 2 slots, coming up from Juniors.
Chafik Besseghier finished ninth at Worlds. As such, he is the highest French finisher at Worlds, and earned the 2 spots. The French fed will surely invite him, as well as Amodio, to TEB. Will they go to Brian on bended knee to come out of retirement? ;)

Nam Nguyen and Kevin Reynolds probably go to Skate Canada. Orser may push Javi to go too, since he will have to go for Nam.

As to wild cards.

The French have invited Peter Liebers before.

Ivan Righini-will he go to CoR?

So those are my guesses.

Nathan Chen turns 15 in May. I think he will stay Junior. In which case, it's unclear who the 3 US men at Skam will be. I think Jason is a given. Not only is near home for him, and with Jeremy retiring, he'd be effectively US 1 for now, but as he wasn't at Worlds, USFSA needs to use a host invite to get him. I suspect USFSA will also invite Max Aaron, because it likes to stage these pre-nationals shootouts at the OK corral, for the draw at the gate, and ignores the fact that they are making it harder for one of their guys to earn a GPF slot.



Some odd points:
Jeremy Ten retired, I thought, so probably he will not be at Skate Canada.
 
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Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!
Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 27, 2009
Also let's not forget that he chose SA back in 2012 and they gave it to him. If they wanted to dilute the field for reigning U.S. champ Jeremy Abbott, they wouldn't have extended an invite to the reigning World bronze medalist.

Or why would they have invited three Japanese men in 2013 to compete against reigning champion Max Aaron, including Daisuke Takahashi? Yes Aaron ended up beating Takahashi but nobody thought that would happen before the competition.

And not mention the obvious, Skate America attracts A LOT OF JAPANESE FANS.

I wouldn't be surprised if it's Hanyu, Kozuka and Mura.
 

pangtongfan

Match Penalty
Joined
Jun 16, 2010
That is true that there do tend to be alot of Japanese, especialy Japanese men invited to Skate America. However at the time of Skate America 2012 Hanyu was clearly the weakest of the 3 world medalists (Chan, Takahashi, Hanyu).
 

dorispulaski

Wicked Yankee Girl
Joined
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Country
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Also let's not forget that he chose SA back in 2012 and they gave it to him. If they wanted to dilute the field for reigning U.S. champ Jeremy Abbott, they wouldn't have extended an invite to the reigning World bronze medalist.

Or why would they have invited three Japanese men in 2013 to compete against reigning champion Max Aaron, including Daisuke Takahashi? Yes Aaron ended up beating Takahashi but nobody thought that would happen before the competition.

And not mention the obvious, Skate America attracts A LOT OF JAPANESE FANS.

I wouldn't be surprised if it's Hanyu, Kozuka and Mura.

I wouldn't either. Because the US men are relatively weak, SkAm is a good pick for Japanese men. And the US appears to trade for invitations for US pairs and dancers at NHK, because Japan doesn't ever fill their 3 host slots in those 2 disciplines. Note Castelli & Shnapir have been to NHK 3 years running. And Meryl & Charlie went to NHK
many times, including in 2006, their first year as seniors
 

Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!
Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 27, 2009
And oh yeah, they invited Mao Asada last year who beat Ashley.
 

karne

in Emergency Backup Mode
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Jan 1, 2013
Country
Australia
I think Jason will end up at Skate America because the USFSA likes to parade their National Champion at home (like last year with Max) and since Jeremy is not continuing, Jason is the de facto National Champion.

It would not surprise me to then see Max or Joshua get one of the other spots, probably Joshua since he's not guaranteed two spots but he was 4th at Nationals.

And of all the options listed, I hope Douglas Razzano gets the other spot. Or Alexander Johnson!

For Jason's second GP, I'd like to see him at NHK for purely selfish reasons, since I think the Japanese fans would just lap him up and if that's going to increase his earning potential via shows then I'm all for it.

Joshua might end up at CoR again - maybe for the match-up factor with Kovtun? Junior Rivals on the Senior Stage? It didn't happen last year because of Josh's sprained ankle, but it would be interesting to see how they went head-to-head.

Max got NHK and SkAm last year. Confidence-wise, NHK might not be a good idea next year. He was 7th at NHK but it wasn't anywhere near as bad as the number made out because of the pure strength of the NHK field.
 

Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!
Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 27, 2009
I think Jason will end up at Skate America because the USFSA likes to parade their National Champion at home (like last year with Max) and since Jeremy is not continuing, Jason is the de facto National Champion.

It would not surprise me to then see Max or Joshua get one of the other spots, probably Joshua since he's not guaranteed two spots but he was 4th at Nationals.

And of all the options listed, I hope Douglas Razzano gets the other spot. Or Alexander Johnson!

For Jason's second GP, I'd like to see him at NHK for purely selfish reasons, since I think the Japanese fans would just lap him up and if that's going to increase his earning potential via shows then I'm all for it.

Joshua might end up at CoR again - maybe for the match-up factor with Kovtun? Junior Rivals on the Senior Stage? It didn't happen last year because of Josh's sprained ankle, but it would be interesting to see how they went head-to-head.

Max got NHK and SkAm last year. Confidence-wise, NHK might not be a good idea next year. He was 7th at NHK but it wasn't anywhere near as bad as the number made out because of the pure strength of the NHK field.

Ooooh I'd love Alexander Johnson to be there....but I think they would be more apt to go with Ross Miner.
 

pangtongfan

Match Penalty
Joined
Jun 16, 2010
And oh yeah, they invited Mao Asada last year who beat Ashley.

Again at the time she was perceived to be the weakest of the top 3 seeds, especialy considering Mao isnt usually an early season skater (this season was an exception). Who were they going to invite if they wanted Wagner to have a chance of winning, Yu Na Kim, LOL!
 

Mattieu

Medalist
Joined
Dec 22, 2010
For dance, once the 2011/12 points are removed, the top 26 will look like this :-

1 4330 Meryl DAVIS / Charlie WHITE
2 3990 Tessa VIRTUE / Scott MOIR
3 3495 Ekaterina BOBROVA / Dmitri SOLOVIEV
4 3462 Anna CAPPELLINI / Luca LANOTTE
5 3370 Kaitlyn WEAVER / Andrew POJE
6 3250 Nathalie PECHALAT / Fabian BOURZAT
7 2911 Elena ILINYKH / Nikita KATSALAPOV
8 2643 Madison CHOCK / Evan BATES
9 2394 Nelli ZHIGANSHINA / Alexander GAZSI
10 2236 Madison HUBBELL / Zachary DONOHUE
11 2217 Maia SHIBUTANI / Alex SHIBUTANI
12 2192 Ekaterina RIAZANOVA / Ilia TKACHENKO
13 2184 Piper GILLES / Paul POIRIER
14 2182 Penny COOMES / Nicholas BUCKLAND
15 2163 Julia ZLOBINA / Alexei SITNIKOV
16 1957 Gabriella PAPADAKIS / Guillaume CIZERON
17 1844 Charlene GUIGNARD / Marco FABBRI
18 1750 Pernelle CARRON / Lloyd JONES
19 1630 Nicole ORFORD / Thomas WILLIAMS
20 1621 Victoria SINITSINA / Ruslan ZHIGANSHIN
21 1599 Alexandra ALDRIDGE / Daniel EATON
22 1524 Kaitlin HAWAYEK / Jean-Luc BAKER
23 1509 Cathy REED / Chris REED
24 1463 Tanja KOLBE / Stefano CARUSO
25 1394 Ksenia MONKO / Kirill KHALIAVIN
26 1386 Anna YANOVSKAYA / Sergey MOZGOV

Bad news for Carron/Jones, as they fall behind Papadakis/Cizeron :eek:
I suspect there will be an almighty battle between these 2 couples to establish themselves as the number 1 French couple :popcorn: (assuming that CJ continue)
Sadly Papadakis/Cizeron failed to make the impact on the senior ranks that the hype predicted. :slink:
 

alebi

Medalist
Joined
Jan 11, 2014
I hope Ivan Righini will get one spot, he needs to raise his reputation and confronts himself with the best skaters if he wants to finish good at Euros (mainly)
 

FS_rrb

On the Ice
Joined
Nov 13, 2012
Sorry if this has already been discussed but...are Meryl and Charlie retiring or do they plan to continue next season? Next year GPF is in my city (yaaayy!! :yay:) and I'd like to know if they will take part in next year GP circuit. I'll go anyway, of course! I've managed to see Tessa and Scott live at this season TEB and it would be great to be able to see the Americans at least once :)
 

tulosai

Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 21, 2011
Sorry if this has already been discussed but...are Meryl and Charlie retiring or do they plan to continue next season? Next year GPF is in my city (yaaayy!! :yay:) and I'd like to know if they will take part in next year GP circuit. I'll go anyway, of course! I've managed to see Tessa and Scott live at this season TEB and it would be great to be able to see the Americans at least once :)

It is assumed they are retiring but they are still mum on their plans or lack thereof.
 

Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!
Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 27, 2009
Again at the time she was perceived to be the weakest of the top 3 seeds, especialy considering Mao isnt usually an early season skater (this season was an exception). Who were they going to invite if they wanted Wagner to have a chance of winning, Yu Na Kim, LOL!

Well they did invite Yuna Kim in 2009 when she was the reigning world champion....
 

Jammers

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 4, 2010
Country
United-States
It is assumed they are retiring but they are still mum on their plans or lack thereof.

I still wish D/W had gone to Worlds and won a 3rd title. It would have been a cakewalk judging by who won to be honest and DWTS isn't going to keep their 15 minutes of fame going much longer. So why not add to their legacy and win another title?
 

CanadianSkaterGuy

Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 25, 2013
I think Yulia is going to be NHK bound!

Hopefully! The crowds there love her. Although, the judges will also be harder on her flutz -- which perhaps she can get sorted out next season.

I'd love for Julia to be the next skater after Mao to win every one of the Grand Prix events. :biggrin:
 

CanadianSkaterGuy

Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 25, 2013
I still wish D/W had gone to Worlds and won a 3rd title. It would have been a cakewalk judging by who won to be honest and DWTS isn't going to keep their 15 minutes of fame going much longer. So why not add to their legacy and win another title?

They might have felt they didn't have much to prove. And they don't. DWTS is a unique opportunity and it builds their brand in front of American audiences considerably more. A 3rd World title in a cakewalk of a Worlds isn't extending their legacy when it was a given that they would win.
 
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