2014-2015 GP predictions

What what?? Edmonds> Pogo and Wagner

I'm not sure about that. Willing to be convinced.

Which US ladies from the JGP circuit might be moving up to the senior Grand Prix this year if any, other than Polina? Karen Chen, Hannah Miller, Leah Keiser, Barbie Long, Ashley Cain, etc? Will we see some of these ladies retire or take a step back?

Also, has Christina Gao retired?

(Maybe this could actually be a separate thread)

breathesgelatin said:

Which US ladies from the JGP circuit might be moving up to the senior Grand Prix this year if any, other than Polina? Karen Chen, Hannah Miller, Leah Keiser, Barbie Long, Ashley Cain, etc? Will we see some of these ladies retire or take a step back?

Also, has Christina Gao retired?

(Maybe this could actually be a separate thread)

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Karen Chen is too young, as are all the Russian ladies from jgpf. Ashley xCain will mov up I think.

What about Zawadzki? After her disastrous Nationals and not having competed in 4CC/Sochi/Worlds, will she get any GP?

FSGMT said:

What about Zawadzki? After her disastrous Nationals and not having competed in 4CC/Sochi/Worlds, will she get any GP?

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I'm wondering about her, too. As much as I think it would make sense to retire, given her family's financial situation, I would like to see her have a good showing or two and leave the sport satisfied when she is ready to do so.

desertskates said:

I'm wondering about her, too. As much as I think it would make sense to retire, given her family's financial situation, I would like to see her have a good showing or two and leave the sport satisfied when she is ready to do so.

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Exactly! She's never really had a very good competition (I mean both SP and FS) in her Senior career, and she looks to me as if she never really fulfilled her potential...

FSGMT said:

What about Zawadzki? After her disastrous Nationals and not having competed in 4CC/Sochi/Worlds, will she get any GP?

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I doubt it- wasn't she 10th or 11th at Nationals? I don't see her getting the SA host pick and I don't think anything she did internationally puts her in the mix. Then again Zhang got SA for 2 years so what do I know?

I'm torn between feeling bad given her situation and feeling like she got many chances, capitalized on none and its time to let other people like Cain, Miller etc. have a shot. Watching her face at Nationals though was terribly sad and it was at least, in part, USFS's fault as they created unrealistic Olympic expectations by holding her up for years.

flutzy13 said:

I doubt it- wasn't she 10th or 11th at Nationals? I don't see her getting the SA host pick and I don't think anything she did internationally puts her in the mix. Then again Zhang got SA for 2 years so what do I know?

I'm torn between feeling bad given her situation and feeling like she got many chances, capitalized on none and its time to let other people like Cain, Miller etc. have a shot.

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I feel both. The USFSA BADLY wanted to give her a break and she basically destroyed her own opportunities. Like, she was inexplicably a USFSA darling... they VASTLY prefered her to, say, Nagasu, despite the fact that Nagasu at her worst was scoring what Agnes at her best scored internationally (this remains true). Their weird favoritism for her really bothered me given, well, REALITY (and still does) but it's safe to say that's over now... so I don't really know what to think.

FSGMT said:

What about Zawadzki? After her disastrous Nationals and not having competed in 4CC/Sochi/Worlds, will she get any GP?

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If Zawadzki gets one, I'll happily sit here with my "#LUKASWUZROBBED" sign.

Sam-Skwantch said:

^I think Gracie fell on her 3f in her FS at US Nats....Polina too.

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Hand down, no fall

mskater93 said:

Hand down, no fall

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Yup. It's still a major error and she fell in every other competition of last season. I think under Carroll she will have improved consistency this season but her jumps weren't looking as high towards the end of the season. If she keeps her 3-3 as consistent she will still be in the mix, but will need to up her game to have a shot at winning the GPF (if she makes it there) or Worlds.

chuckm said:

The seeding is based on finish at Worlds 2014, also assuming that Asada and Kostner do not do the GP in the coming season.

Worlds 2014:

1. Asada (not doing GP)
2. LIPNITSKAIA #1 Seed
3. Kostner (not doing GP)
4. POGORILAYA #2 Seed
5. GOLD #3 Seed
6. Suzuki (retired)
7. WAGNER #4 Seed
8. EDMUNDS #5 Seed
9. PARK #6 Seed

If USFS host-picks Gold for Skate America, Lipnitskaia can't go there because an event can have only one seed from the 1-3 group. By the same token, if Russia host-picks Lipnitskaia or Pogorilaya for CoR, then Gold can't go there----but Wagner or Edmunds can, because they are in the 4-6 group.

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With Worlds 2014 deciding the seeding -- how does Adelina fit into this if she chooses to skate the GP circuit? Will she have be to invited by one of the events?

jkun said:

With Worlds 2014 deciding the seeding -- how does Adelina fit into this if she chooses to skate the GP circuit? Will she have be to invited by one of the events?

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No. She is in the top 25 Seasons best scores and she is in the top 25 ranked skaters overall. She is guaranteed 1 event and would doubtless get two. She just is not seeded.

Sorry if I am the last to know, but I see that the ISU World Standings now reflect the weighting of 100% for 2013-2014 + 70% for 2012-2013.


[A tweet from @RichardDornbush gave me the impression that the standings were newly updated? (ETA, I meant that based on the tweet alone, I could not be sure whether the updating from the previous day was the first unveiling of the rankings with the adjusted weighting.)]

Radionova will sweeeeep all

Yes, the ISU World Standings have been updated as of 5/21/14, but no notice was taken of splits and retirements. I'm listing them here:

MEN top 30
HANYU Yuzuru
CHAN Patrick-not doing GP?
MACHIDA Tatsuki
FERNANDEZ Javier
TEN Denis
TAKAHASHI Daisuke
KOVTUN Maxim
MURA Takahito
BREZINA Michal
YAN Han
DORNBUSH Richard
AARON Max
KOZUKA Takahiko
MENSHOV Konstantin
LIEBERS Peter
ODA Nobunari-retired
BROWN Jason
VORONOV Sergei
MAJOROV Alexander
ABBOTT Jeremy-retired??
FARRIS Joshua
AMODIO Florent
SONG Nan
BESSEGHIER Chafik

VERNER Tomas-retired
RIPPON Adam
MARTINEZ Michael Christian
JIN Boyang
REYNOLDS Kevin
JOUBERT Brian-retired


LADIES top 30
ASADA Mao-not doing GP this year
LIPNITSKAIA Julia
SOTNIKOVA Adelina
WAGNER Ashley
SUZUKI Akiko (retired)
GOLD Gracie
KOSTNER Carolina-retired?
RADIONOVA Elena
POGORILAYA Anna
MURAKAMI Kanako
KIM Yu-Na (retired)
MIYAHARA Satoko
MARCHEI Valentina
TUKTAMYSHEVA Elizaveta
HELGESSON Viktoria
MEITE Mae Berenice
IMAI Haruka
HICKS Courtney
GAO Christina
LI Zijun
HELGESSON Joshi
LACOSTE Amelie (retired)
NAGASU Mirai
WEINZIERL Nathalie

CESARIO Samantha
ZAWADZKI Agnes
GOSVIANI Nikol
LEONOVA Alena
HONGO Rika
OSMOND Kaetlyn

Notes:
With retirements removed, CESARIO and ZAWADZKI fall into the top 24
Caroline ZHANG and Alissa CZISNY have fallen off the list altogether since they have had no reportable results for the past two years

PAIRS top 30
VOLOSOZHAR / TRANKOV
SAVCHENKO / SZOLKOWY (split)
MOORE-TOWERS / MOSCOVITCH (split)
PANG / TONG (retired)
DUHAMEL / RADFORD
STOLBOVA / KLIMOV
BERTON / HOTAREK (split)
BAZAROVA / LARIONOV (split)
PENG / ZHANG
CASTELLI / SHNAPIR (split)
SCIMECA / KNIERIM
LAWRENCE / SWIEGERS (split)
JAMES / CIPRES
DENNEY / FRAZIER
SUI / HAN
YU / JIN
PURDY / MARINARO (split)
VARTMANN / VAN CLEAVE
POPOVA / MASSOT (split)
FEDOROVA / MIROSHKIN
DENNEY / COUGHLIN
DELLA MONICA / GUARISE
ANTIPOVA / MAISURADZE
TARASOVA / MOROZOV

ZHANG / BARTHOLOMAY
VIGALOVA / ZAKROEV
DAVANKOVA / DEPUTAT (split)
KAYNE / O'SHEA
MARTIUSHEVA / ROGONOV (split)
KAVAGUTI / SMIRNOV


DANCE top 30
DAVIS / WHITE
VIRTUE / MOIR
BOBROVA / SOLOVIEV
CAPPELLINI / LANOTTE
WEAVER / POJE
PECHALAT / BOURZAT (retired)
ILYINIKH / KATSALAPOV (split)
CHOCK / BATES
ZHIGANSHINA / GAZSI
HUBBELL / DONOHUE
SHIBUTANI / SHIBUTANI
RIAZANOVA / TKACHENKO (split)
GILLES / POIRIER
COOMES / BUCKLAND
ZLOBINA / SITNIKOV
PAPADAKIS / CIZERON
GUIGNARD / FABBRI
CARRON / JONES
ORFORD / WILLIAMS
SINITSINA / ZHIGANSHIN (split)
ALDRIDGE / EATON
HAWAYEK / BAKER
REED / REED
KOLBE / CARUSO

MONKO / KHALIAVAN
YANOVSKAIA / MOZGOV staying junior
McNAMARA / CARPENTER staying junior
TOBIAS / STAGNIUNAS (split)
EDWARDS / PANG staying junior
PAUL / ISLAM

The US men make interesting reading:

Dornbush
Aaron
Brown
Abbott
Farris
Rippon

Consider also that Jason and Joshua's last season results are all Junior, which give fewer ranking points.

I'm surprised Dornbush is as high as he is. And for all the people complaining about Aaron, he's still way up there - ahead of Abbott. I wonder what the point difference between Abbott and Farris is and whether Farris would have been ahead had he been able to skate at CoR.

karne said:

... I wonder what the point difference between Abbott and Farris is and whether Farris would have been ahead had he been able to skate at CoR.

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Abbott 1782 points
Farris 1707

(Links to the ISU charts showing the points are in post #134 on the previous page of this thread.)

When will we know something?? I'm dying to find out the GP assignments!

FSGMT said:

When will we know something?? I'm dying to find out the GP assignments!

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I read June 27th somewhere. That's not very reliable but it was on the internets so it must be true:yes: