Well, maybe these nationals will put even more fire under Gold! I think RD is right and mostly what she needs is to get clean programs out there. She's pretty much got the technical content plus good spins. She just needs to stay on the beam. Also, it would help if she had some programs that she truly felt. I think what really came together for Ashely at nationals was first of all being super trained but also having a program she loves. If Gold has any weakness it's that musicality doesn't seem to come naturally for her. but it doesn't really for Ashley either and she has been able to work at it.
State of US Ladies in skating III: 2014-15 Season
- Thread starter R.D.
- Start date
- Joined
- Feb 17, 2010
I agree with The Skating Lesson's comments on Gracie's jump layout - she should move the 2A+3T to the second half and put the 3F in the first half so she has a better chance of landing it. Not only that, but the combo will be in the bonus, giving her a higher BV. This should help her consistency while upping her content.
^along those same lines, I wonder if Ashley has considered changing her jump layout to:
2A
3Lz+3T
2A
3Lo+1Lo+3S
3F+2T
3F
3Lz
I think this would help her GOE (especially if she did both arms overhead on the 2T as she did in the past, in addition to the higher GOE that she typically gets on solo 2A compared to her 2A+2T) as well as her base value (moving the 2T to the second half, changing the 3Lo to a 3F).
2A
3Lz+3T
2A
3Lo+1Lo+3S
3F+2T
3F
3Lz
I think this would help her GOE (especially if she did both arms overhead on the 2T as she did in the past, in addition to the higher GOE that she typically gets on solo 2A compared to her 2A+2T) as well as her base value (moving the 2T to the second half, changing the 3Lo to a 3F).
Since she is doing the 3F out of the spread eagle in the SP and the long has the solo 3L also from a SE that would be a nice idea
- Joined
- Feb 14, 2014
yes love it. Might be too tiring of a layout though. We'll see what their strategy is when they do her lutzes internationally.
In the long the lutz in combination looked like it was on the right edge but the solo lutz looked like ! to me.
- Joined
- Feb 17, 2010
I agree with this, except I'd change the final lutz to a 3Lo. I have a feeling she is still going to get edge calls on the jump. However, I do like the 3Lz3T better for her than the 3F3T because, although she flutzes sometimes, she gets much better runout on her flutz which helps her have the speed to fully rotate the 3T. (Although can she still do two 2A's without one having to be in combination?)
I think Ashley should do 2 flips and 1 lutz in the LP. Her edge is getting better, but she'll still be susceptible to ! (and if a grumpy tech specialist goes "e," it's all over). And she'll probably pull better GOE from her flips, cancelling out any BV loss.
Ashley has been skating in Seniors since the 2007 GP---that's eight full seasons of performing experience. I remember Ashley in her early GP years. She was a pleasant skater, if not particularly memorable technically or artistically; she usually finished in the top 4 if not on a lower level of the podium. Over the years Ashley has learned how to make the most of her music, even if in the beginning, she wasn't any more 'musical' than Gracie is now. Gracie is now only in her third senior season and her performance skills will improve with time.
OTOH, it could be worth her while to get comfortable with doing it in competition, even with the changes being made.
It's a huge risk, with potentially a huge reward if she can pull it off. It's a gamble, but I'd say to achieve the ambitious goals she's set out for herself, it's probably one worth taking (considering her rate of progress)...can't play it safe in this field and hope to medal.
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- Joined
- Nov 12, 2009
I kind of wish Ashley was going to 4CCs just so we'd have an idea of how the judges will handle her lutz edge, 3lz-3t, and 3lo-1lo-3s combo before Worlds. They could make or break her at Worlds, though she might as well go for it anyways.
For Wagner I think 4CC is more risk than reward. It seems that for her, "momentum" is important and she has a lot of it coming out of Nationals - it would be too bad to see her peak at 4CC (assuming her peak wasn't Nationals!) and then go downward at Worlds. It already happened one year (2012). Plus, she's already been to the GPF (which Gold & Edmunds missed) and I think at her age pacing yourself is more critical than it is for the teenagers.
I agree that the lutzes are a massive risk, but then again, Wagner is not going to achieve her goal playing it safe so she will have to go for it, do it as best she can and just pray that she gets the BOTD.
For Gold, it's a chance to set herself up well for Worlds as well. Ditto for Edmunds.
I agree that the lutzes are a massive risk, but then again, Wagner is not going to achieve her goal playing it safe so she will have to go for it, do it as best she can and just pray that she gets the BOTD.
For Gold, it's a chance to set herself up well for Worlds as well. Ditto for Edmunds.
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- Joined
- Nov 12, 2009
If Miyahara wins 4CC, do we think think that would switch their chances to medal going into Worlds? (ie - making it so that Miyahara has better chances to medal than Gold?)
- Joined
- Feb 17, 2010
I think Ashley should consider
2A
3Lz+3T - easier for her to get the toe off from her straighter lutz landing
2A
---
3Lo+1Lo+3S
3F+2T
3Lo
3F
This way she only risks the edge call on the lutz once in the long program. Also, she can up the transition level going into her flips vs. her lutzs because of her entrance which will help her against the Russians.
Like I said earlier, Gracie should consider:
3Lz+3T
3F
3Lo
---
2A+3T
3Lz
3S+2T+2T
2A
I don't know if either of these girls' teams are considering these layouts, but these could be the changes Gracie and Ashley need to maximize their success.
2A
3Lz+3T - easier for her to get the toe off from her straighter lutz landing
2A
---
3Lo+1Lo+3S
3F+2T
3Lo
3F
This way she only risks the edge call on the lutz once in the long program. Also, she can up the transition level going into her flips vs. her lutzs because of her entrance which will help her against the Russians.
Like I said earlier, Gracie should consider:
3Lz+3T
3F
3Lo
---
2A+3T
3Lz
3S+2T+2T
2A
I don't know if either of these girls' teams are considering these layouts, but these could be the changes Gracie and Ashley need to maximize their success.
I agree with your layout for Ashley, she needs to minimize her risk, it's better if she does a 3F as her last jump and works on getting positive GOE for it instead of putting a 3Lz there
As for Gracie she has a high chance of Zayaking herself which she has already done this season, she should really consider putting a 3S-2T-2Lo because she could double the 3T in her 3-3 or 2A-3T, the 3T in her 2A-3T tends to be really tight anyway so I think if she moves it to the second half she could double it
That's a good way of putting it. Ashley really has learned to make the most of her music.
- Joined
- Feb 14, 2014
Regardless, the American ladies better bring it. Good is not good enough and great is barely acceptable. That's just what the standard is today.
- Joined
- Nov 12, 2009
Yes. That's why I'm excited for Worlds. With skating the way it is today, Ashley knows if she doesn't bring her A-game at Worlds than skaters like Gracie, Anna, Satoko, and maybe even Polina can easily pass her by. So she will go for it and the end result will be exciting. Regardless of who medals, I expect all the ladies in contention to bring it because they know they won't get on the podium by playing it safe.
Frankly it has been that way for almost 2 full Olympic cycles. Hence why the U.S. has been missing from the podium in 8 years.
But this is one of their best chances yet. In the past they've found some way to blow it so I'm not getting my hopes up, but at least the possibility is there. I guess what's different about this round is that for the first time we have TWO possible contenders so the chances are a bit better. Both Gold and Wagner (independently) have come up short at past Worlds, hopefully fate doesn't strike again.
- Joined
- Feb 17, 2010
Agreed. Ashley is (at the moment) better than she has ever been, and the competition is the weakest it has been in 8 years with Adelina, Carolina, Mao, and Yuna out. In fact, no World or Olympic singles ladies medalists will compete. If one of Ashley or Gracie doesn't medal, it will be a huge missed opportunity.
