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Thread: What's next for Patrick Chan?

  1. #241
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sandpiper View Post
    I dunno, once you get to certain age the judges seem to want to dump you... Maybe they (judges, Japan Fed.) decided Dai was on his way out and it's time to start propping up Hanyu. The plan did end with an OGM.

    EDIT: No point politicking for Dai and Mao in 2012 and Sochi. Dai got second overall, which he deserved (imo) even if the marks were too low. Mao would've been out of a medal either way so it's not worth bothering with.
    Dai's problem were that his jumps were failing him. Artistically I think he wasn't as good in the past two seasons, but that could be because he was focusing on his technical side. Kostner's one of the few examples where she managed to maintain her artistry and up her technical game this season. Mao revised her technique and improved her artistry greatly and then the technical side (sort of) caught up again. Certain skaters aren't necessarily dumped at a certain age - if anything I find the opposite where skaters of a certain age or being "in the game" for a while, get favours from the judges even when they make errors (I mean, look at Kostner's FS PCS at Worlds).

  2. #242
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    It can go both ways. Joubert was definitely getting dumped by the end. (I understand he's out of medal contention anyway, but the scores were still too low). Kostner was helped at Worlds, but she was actually more competitive at the end of her run than in the beginning, so the judges didn't treat her as an oldie. (And I agree with her bronze medal despite the horrific free skate. Her short program was sublime)

    And I acknowledged that Dai's jumps were failing him by 2014 (and sixth was the best he could do in Sochi). The question was why he was getting the low PCS back in 2012.

  3. #243
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    Looks like Japanese skaters took over Pchan. Is JSF behind this?

  4. #244
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sandpiper View Post
    It can go both ways. Joubert was definitely getting dumped by the end. (I understand he's out of medal contention anyway, but the scores were still too low). Kostner was helped at Worlds, but she was actually more competitive at the end of her run than in the beginning, so the judges didn't treat her as an oldie. (And I agree with her bronze medal despite the horrific free skate. Her short program was sublime)

    And I acknowledged that Dai's jumps were failing him by 2014 (and sixth was the best he could do in Sochi). The question was why he was getting the low PCS back in 2012.
    Maybe the judges simply didn't respond well to his FS? I thought Wagner's FS was also getting the same treatment this year with PCS (although her SP PCS was fine).

  5. #245
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    Quote Originally Posted by CanadianSkaterGuy View Post
    Maybe the judges simply didn't respond well to his FS? I thought Wagner's FS was also getting the same treatment this year with PCS (although her SP PCS was fine).
    Must be blind... in my opinion (as a very amateur viewer lol). Honestly, that is one of my favourite male programmes for sheer compelling viewing).

  6. #246
    Love popcorn, hate horendous costumes Meoima's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sandpiper View Post
    It can go both ways. Joubert was definitely getting dumped by the end. (I understand he's out of medal contention anyway, but the scores were still too low).
    Joubert's program was ancient. He reused it 3-4 times already. Of course the judges would have gotten tired of that same program over and over again.
    I think Dai was underscored in 2012, but for exactly which reason I don't know. May be it's true that the judges simple did not like his long program, or his jumps.

  7. #247
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheGrandSophy View Post
    Must be blind... in my opinion (as a very amateur viewer lol). Honestly, that is one of my favourite male programmes for sheer compelling viewing).
    He's one of my favourites too however unfortunately I think his focus on artistry has compromised his jumps. And when you don't land quads reliably the judges start relegating you to a lower tier, hence why his PCS would be sub-90 if he missed his quad. I think 2011-2012 was an up and down season and multiple losses to Chan and an inconsistent quad widened the PCS gap betwen them.

  8. #248
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    Yeah, but he did land all his jumps on that day, including a quad, if I recall? So that shouldn't have been an issue for that LP (2012 WC). They should mark what is there on the day, not reputation. That is what I cannot get my head around in this sport and what I find most frustrating, I think.

  9. #249
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    Quote Originally Posted by Meoima View Post
    Joubert's program was ancient. He reused it 3-4 times already. Of course the judges would have gotten tired of that same program over and over again.
    I think Dai was underscored in 2012, but for exactly which reason I don't know. May be it's true that the judges simple did not like his long program, or his jumps.
    Oh no, I'm not talking about 2012 Worlds with Joubert bringing out the Matrix again. He got the placement he deserved there. I mean, I would've loved to see him creep onto the podium in his home country, but Hanyu's breakout performance was too much to challenge when you're doing an old program with techno music. I'm talking about the entire quad in general. The judges seemed only too happy to show him the door after Vancouver, culminating in a 13th place finish in Sochi (15th in the free skate?) despite nailing two quads and staying on his feet throughout the routine. At least, that's my perception. I know Joubert's own up-and-down seasons and COP-unfriendliness didn't help things, but I find it very sad that he did what was probably his best Olympics free skate in Sochi and didn't even make it to the top ten. It would be acceptable if the men's field skated well in Sochi, but he couldn't even make it to the top ten on a night of splatfests. I can't help but feel that the judges had really given up on him by then.

    Regarding Dai, as terrible as it sounds, I hope you're right--that the judges just genuinely didn't like his program. I don't agree with them, but at least that means the judging was honest. And yes, his jumps were failing him by Sochi (and his quads weren't consistent even when he was at his best), but his jumps were solid in 2012 Worlds. I certainly see no reason to put him behind Hanyu in the free.

    EDIT: TheGrandSophy beat me to it regarding Dai's jumps. I don't think Dai's finish in 2012 was necessarily due to reputation regarding his jump consistency, especially since we're talking about PCS. I think it was a combination of Yuzuru's breakout stealing the thunder (even if his skate wasn't perfect at all) and the judges nitpicking on Dai and being super lenient on Chan.

  10. #250
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheGrandSophy View Post
    Yeah, but he did land all his jumps on that day, including a quad, if I recall? So that shouldn't have been an issue for that LP (2012 WC). They should mark what is there on the day, not reputation. That is what I cannot get my head around in this sport and what I find most frustrating, I think.
    Yeah he was inexplicably under marked in the FS and should have won that segment (just not overall given the downgrade in the SP, the UR on Dai's 3F and the fact that Chan's two quads to Dai's one quad gave them similar TES scores). I think Dai's program wasn't nearly as complex as Chan's in terms of choreo and Chan had greater speed/ice coverage and Dai picked up in intensity only towards the end but Dai's PCS should have been on par with Chan (given Chan's major error) which would have given Dai and higher score but still not enough for gold. Sometimes a fall in a more ambitious program beats a clean program (see this year's GPF with Hanyu vs Chan or Worlds with Lip beating Pogo in the FS even though I don't think Lip deserved 4 points higher PCS). Kostner's FS got almost 10 points higher PCS than Pogo and higher PCS than a "clean"ish Mao.

  11. #251
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    Just to steer the topic back to Patrick, if he comes back, what do you think would be a good potential jump layout for him? Assuming he wants to win, and not just medal (the latter should be a piece of cake assuming his skills don't rust after the break). Right now, I think it'll be an uphill battle to beat a clean Hanyu (of course, clean Hanyu rarely happens, but clean Patrick isn't a mainstay either).

  12. #252
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sandpiper View Post
    Just to steer the topic back to Patrick, if he comes back, what do you think would be a good potential jump layout for him? Assuming he wants to win, and not just medal (the latter should be a piece of cake assuming his skills don't rust after the break). Right now, I think it'll be an uphill battle to beat a clean Hanyu (of course, clean Hanyu rarely happens, but clean Patrick isn't a mainstay either).

    Hard to stay. The main thing I think is that time for Hanyu is counting on + and for Chan on - at this point. If Hanyu will skate his current LP layout up to his best quality on all jumps he can make nearly 200 points in FS, and it is still to come and I think it will come sooner or later.

    Can Chan progress still more technically ? Hard to say. I have feeling that this axels are just getting worse and worse for him.



    If Hanyu will finally get consistent 4S it can be game over for others and if somewhere in future he will put 2nd quad in SP... huh.


    But it would be more interesting in field with him if he would skate on top lvl, so maybe we could get some nice battles with him and Hanyu and Fernandez

  13. #253
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    ^Yeah, pretty much agree with the two of you. I think it'll be difficult for Chan to increase his tech content at his point. And the one clean triple axel he did at the Olympics? That was in Vancouver when he was quadless.

    If he comes back (unlikely, imo), I think he should concentrate on skating his current tech content squeaky clean. Hanyu's certainly capable of opening the door with mistakes. But Chan will need to fix that axel ASAP and accept that it'll be difficult to dominate the way he did before without taking advantage of others' mistakes. (Note: I am not saying he's a has-been. He's a shoe-in for a medal unless he bombs. He'll just have difficulty winning gold over Hanyu and Fernandez if they skate clean, and the problem is intensified by the fact that Chan isn't always clean himself.).

  14. #254
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    If he returned he should stick with his jump layout. After all, it still holds the world record score.

    If Hanyu starts getting consistency on his 4S then Chan might be in trouble but really he should just continue doing what he is comfortable with and hope Hanyu doesn't deliver a clean competition (which Hanyu has yet to do anyways).

  15. #255
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    Yeah, but Chan needs to fix his own consistency. Getting a world record score is one thing. It's quite another to deliver a comparable (or close) skate on a regular basis. I feel like he needs to fix the triple axel, but at the same time I feel like it's a lost cause.

    I know you love Chan, but he needs to be able to capitalize on Hanyu's mistakes going forward. He failed to do that in Sochi, on the Olympic stage, even with his own Olympic experience and how much room Hanyu left him.

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