How would Chan, Bobrova & Soloviev, Sotnikova have done at worlds
I wont even bother with the obvious ones like V&T (probably won), Kim (probably won), V&M and D&W (for sure gone 1-2). So I will focus on the more unknown ones. How do you think Chan, B&S, and Sotnikova would have done at world had they competed.
My guesses in hindsight would be bronze for Chan (would win gold with 2 clean skates, and maybe even without totally clean, but that seems unlikely to have happened), 5th place for B&S (they havent been close to beating P&B in 3 meetings this year so no reason to see them beating them here, and I&K as Russian defacto #1 probably come out on top overall barely even with their huge SD error), and bronze for Sotnikova (Julia with her consistency usually comes out on top, and would probably again here).
It's very hard to say about Chan. I think he could have won here, but it's really hard to predict his final placing. My bet is bronze medal for him though.
Originally Posted by pangtongfan
I'd like to think B/S could have won gold medal there and I really think it was a big chance for them with two clean dances. You said they havent been close to beating P/B this year, but P/B had made a couple mistakes in their SD. So with clean SD B/S could probably have something like 70+ points after SD. Then judges could have decide to place them first with two clean dances. I think it's a possibility and my biased opinion
I agree with bronze for Sotnikova, although with couple mistakes she would probably be 4th (just like Pogorilaya).
B&S would have quite possibly medaled given the errors of I/K and P/B. You can't really go by past scores because everyone's FD scores were bumped up in the absence of V/M and D/W (who woul get top PCS reserved for them).
Hard to say if Chan would have definitely medaled. 275 is an extremely high score that usually wins. However Chan has cleared 282 this season. However the GPF where he lost the FS to Hanyu with a fall shows that Japanese ice would have favoured Hanyu (and Machida) and he would have had to be close to perfect to beat Hanyu and Machida.
Kim wasn't assured a victory unless she was absolutely clean again... 216 is hard to beat and other than the 2A, Asada "looked" clean. Would have likely medaled easily though.
Sotnikova near her best (eg Euros/Russian Nats) or at her best but with proper judging (Sochi with flutz/UR call, for example) would have easily medaled over Kostner and arguably over Julia too. No way would she have defeated Mao though unless she fully rotated her jumps and had no 3-jump error and was still given huge GOE.
Huge Scott Moir Fan
Bobrova and Soloviev probably would have won :( Such a pity for them.
Bobrova/Soloviev with clean skates could have been get all the support after Ilinikh/Katsalapov made that fatal error, leading at the SD with something like 72 points and get generous scores in the FD which would provide them to win in the rather weak field.
So with 2 decent performances they should get the Gold (sadly because they wouldn't deserve it really). In this case Ilinykh/Katsalapov's scores in the FD would be lower without being the top Russian favourite to win, but it wouldn't affect their placement. To miss the Gold with 1 points with a whole missing elements was really weird. They are not that much better (if better at all)than the rest of the field, please!
I'm sad that Virtue/Moir didn't participate in. It would be a lovely farewell competition with their 2 great programmes in front of this fantastic audience.
Chan would easily win with 2 decent performances. The other scenario is uncalculable because would depend on his mistakes to happen or not.
Yu-Na would win this with 2 mediocre programs even if she was not at her best.
Sotnikova would be 3rd or in the case of not falling in both of her programmes and not popping jumps, 2nd using her undeserved "admiration" marks in the PCS, because of Lipnitskaya fall.
Considering that Chan rarely skates a clean long, he certainly wouldn't have been guaranteed a win here. After nearly losing Worlds last year, and then losing the Olympics, he might have had to skate clean in Japan in order to win the World Title this time around. And since Hanyu skated a cleaner long than in Sochi, and Machida and Hernandez were also pretty on, he might have only finished 3rd, with Hernandez being bumped down to 4th.
It was probably wise for Chan not to go and risk losing his World title.
I don't think B/S would have won - they have been losing the free dance to the other top teams all year, and they wouldn't have enough of a distance after the short dance to hold the others off. The got over 100 in the FD for the 1st time ever in Sochi & even many people's scores going up I doubt they would have repeated that away from home ice as I think the judges were already being as generous as they could be. Look at their personal best scores with two clean skates in Sochi - 70~ in the team SD and 102~ in the individual FD - it gives them a total of 173.22 which would have landed them in 5th at Worlds this year. And going into the event they would be unlikely to have been seen as Russian number 1 team which could hurt them further.
Unfortunately the scores at the Olympics are irrelevant.
Originally Posted by %uhh
As long as the favourite Ilinykh/Katsalapov made a huge error, which send a message to the judges, they are not ready yet to win the gold, all the other couples got much higher ( Weaver/Poje something like 10 marks more) scores than at the Olympics.
Don't forget the effect of the "panic" of the judges, when they lost their favourites to win.