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Thread: The "I have a gut feeling that..." thread for '14-'15.

  1. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by noskates View Post
    I just cannot imagine in what world Polina would be done - she just started! Had to laugh at Karne and 3 men winning Nationals. I only want one of them to and the other two can fight over second and third. But I also agree that Lipniskaia will not live up to the pre-Olympic hype again. Not to say she won't win a GP but she won't dominate. I think the women are going to be really interesting in the coming years....and the men, too.
    I think both Polina and Julia have some physical growth coming. Polina is awkwardly long limbed at this point and is going to grow into her arms and legs and feet eventually. Julia has no curves whatsoever (and if you thought they were hidden by the fit of her costume, go look at the pic Polina posted with her on Twitter). Her chest looks like an 11 year old. Yes, some women are very small breasted (believe me, I am personally aware). But by the end of puberty, we all have some sort of breasts. It appears Julia has some puberty to come yet. And any skating fans that don't know that physical changes can derail or delay a career have clearly not been paying attention.

  2. #32
    skating philosopher Mrs. P's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by louisa05 View Post
    I think both Polina and Julia have some physical growth coming. Polina is awkwardly long limbed at this point and is going to grow into her arms and legs and feet eventually. Julia has no curves whatsoever (and if you thought they were hidden by the fit of her costume, go look at the pic Polina posted with her on Twitter). Her chest looks like an 11 year old. Yes, some women are very small breasted (believe me, I am personally aware). But by the end of puberty, we all have some sort of breasts. It appears Julia has some puberty to come yet. And any skating fans that don't know that physical changes can derail or delay a career have clearly not been paying attention.
    One only has to look at Kanako Murakami. I just posted this video from 2010 on her fan thread -- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qz8Hw5pbwhs

    In 2010, she won Skate America, got bronzes at NHK Trophy and GPF and a respectable 8th place at Worlds. The following year she started growing. Eventually she came into her own, but there were definitely some bumps along the way.

    Also consider that Kanako was older than both Polina and Julia -- almost 16 at the start of the 2010-2011 senior when she debuted -- her growth came when she was 16 going on 17. (Sound of Music pun!)

  3. #33
    Size 7 Knife Boots Sam-Skwantch's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    >>>>>>

  4. #34
    In search of a summer sport to love <3 desertskates's Avatar
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    I don't think Polina's going to dominate the world scene, but I do have the gut feeling that US Nationals may be another wonky one. For example, 1. Polina 2. Ashley 3. Gracie.
    I do think those ladies will be the World team, but the battle between the three could be very close.
    I hope they all stay healthy to keep it interesting and give them all a fair chance for what they want.

    Gut also says Elena R. may have a rough growth spurt for some reason. She's not just short or just thin, she's all over tiny. But she could easily recover over time should that be the case.

  5. #35
    Size 7 Knife Boots Sam-Skwantch's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by desertskates View Post
    I don't think Polina's going to dominate the world scene, but I do have the gut feeling that US Nationals may be another wonky one. For example, 1. Polina 2. Ashley 3. Gracie.
    I do think those ladies will be the World team, but the battle between the three could be very close.
    I hope they all stay healthy to keep it interesting and give them all a fair chance for what they want.
    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    I agree it will probably be those three and the battle for U.S supremacy will be important. Probably only the U.S #1 might have a medal chance at next years worlds.
    I have a feeling it won't mean a whole lot outside of the US.

    Ashley however will lead the way. She is the only one with enough sass to compete with the Russians who have very strong attitudes themselves.

  6. #36
    In search of a summer sport to love <3 desertskates's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sam-Skwantch View Post
    I have a feeling it won't mean a whole lot outside of the US.

    Ashley however will lead the way. She is the only one with enough sass to compete with the Russians who have very strong attitudes themselves.
    Agreed, that sadly it won't mean a whole lot when Worlds rolls around. But the optimist in me will hope one of the ladies pulls out a medal. And I'll hope it's Ashley leading the charge.

  7. #37
    In search of a summer sport to love <3 desertskates's Avatar
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    And that train of thought just brought on a whole other gut feeling--should Ashley find herself with a world medal next year, that may bring on a surprise retirement announcement. Hmmmm.....

  8. #38
    In search of a summer sport to love <3 desertskates's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    Well I give the U.S #1 (whoever wins that mini battle) only like a 15% chance to medal at next years worlds. However someone who is not the defacto U.S #1 is more like 3%. We all saw from Gold's scores at Olympics and worlds (generous to put it mildly for how she skated) and Wagner's scores, how someone who isnt even #1 in the U.S will be pretty much buried in the judges minds before the event even begins. As you imply even the U.S #1 does not give you that much leverage these days, so you need to be that to even have any chance.
    I think that seems like a pretty accurate assessment. Hope they make good choices with music, etc and train hard to give themselves a chance.

  9. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mrs. P View Post
    One only has to look at Kanako Murakami. I just posted this video from 2010 on her fan thread -- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qz8Hw5pbwhs

    In 2010, she won Skate America, got bronzes at NHK Trophy and GPF and a respectable 8th place at Worlds. The following year she started growing. Eventually she came into her own, but there were definitely some bumps along the way.

    Also consider that Kanako was older than both Polina and Julia -- almost 16 at the start of the 2010-2011 senior when she debuted -- her growth came when she was 16 going on 17. (Sound of Music pun!)
    Exactly. Some kids grow a bit later. I had a student years ago who shot up from 5'1" to 5'8" during her senior year of high school. It isn't a career ender, but both Polina and Julia could have some struggles coming. My gut is that it will be easier for Polina as she has good height on her jumps and already a little bit of curves to contend with.

  10. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    Dance- I&K will remain together. Weaver & Poje will win their first world title. Bobrova & Soloviev will turn pro or split upon the new of I&K continuing. Paul & Islam will overtake Gilles & Poirier as Canadian #2 at least. Virtue & Moir and Davis & White will both officially anounce their retirements from amateur competition.
    G&P overtook P&I at the Worlds. So they've already won a re-match since Nationals.

    But I don't get this constant need for P&I fans to keep asserting they are better - the 2 teams are close in ability and can flip back and forth depending on the event. So I'm not sure one of them will 'overtake' the other permanently.

  11. #41
    Custom Title ahy's Avatar
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    -Julia and Polina are going to go through puberty...this can make julia lost her flexibility and them to lost their jumps...especially julia and polina is so slow before she jumps...
    -Adelina is not going to have a really successful year - -

  12. #42
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    Poirier and Gilles will explode past many in the next couple of years , his talent alone is unbelievable . The creativity of this couple is so reminiscent of Torvill and Dean and yes I think they are going to be that good . Patrick Chan will be back , but I don't think any of the disciplines will be dominated by one or two skaters or couples like it has been the last few years ! I am hoping the U S A skaters regain the past glory they enjoyed because the skating world needs skating to be popular in America again !

  13. #43
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    Adelina will retire from competitive skating since she can make more money skating professionally, especially in Russia.

    Julia L and Radinova will struggle with puberty and their competition results will not match the early hype. I place my bets on Ana P to become Russia's #1 lady over the next quad.

    Polina E will continue to improve, especially with the tutelage and input of Marina Klimova.

    The Shibs will radically change choreo direction (yes, even under Zueva) and be successful on the world stage.

    Skate Canada will continue to overhype Katlyn O, N Nyguen, and Weaver/Poje (who I think will retire mid-quad).

    The Chinese and Canadian pairs will dominate eventually even if V/T continue to compete the next quad.

    I/K will spilt and we will be spared another hackneyed Morozov program. I think another Russian team will inch closer to the podium as we near 2018 OGs (maybe one of the current junior/new senior teams).

    Speedy will continue to try and kill figure skating. No one will stand up or challenge him on any of his half-a**ed, misguided initiatives.

  14. #44
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    P&I beat G&P once at Nationals at a time in which G&P had only recently gotten back onto the ice after months of being injured and weren't skating under optimal conditions. G&P went on to skate well at 4 Continents and nearly win it, and then went on to finish 8th at Worlds and beat P&I quite convincingly. That doesn't mean they will do so at all events in the future, but it does mean that the 2 teams are closely matched so far.

    I don't see any evidence that Paul Poirier has been overscored anymore than any other National skater in Canada. He's been one of the most consistent skaters on the Canadian scene. He was on the podium 5 years in a row. He has now gotten into the Top 10 at Worlds with 2 different partners. But he certainly doesn't get his pick of GP assignments the way V&M or Chan did.

    As for P&I, it's hard for their fans to complain about other teams being overmarked considering how inconsistent this team was until 2014 - there used to be a time when they had trouble just staying on their feet.

    As for W&P, they and C&P were closely-matched teams and Vanessa Crone was a strong technical skater, so the marks were for her, and not just Poirier. They were above average in ability for their age and several seasons ago W&P were much more inconsistent than they are now. Remember that the international marks backed up the national marks. W&P usually finished below C&P internationally until March 2011. W&P have yet to win a medal at the GPF or win a GP event - that's not the fault of Poirier or Skate Canada.

    As for Piper Gilles, I have no idea whether she will get on the World podium. I certainly don't think she is the next Tessa Virtue, but I do notice that some of her detractors keep on moving the benchmarks. Going into Worlds there were predictions that G&P had no chance of making the Top 10 and that P&I were a far better team. G&P ended up surpassing expectations by finishing 8th (and 7th in the FD) and easily beating P&I by 2 spots overall (and 3 spots in the FD).

    If G&P had failed to move up in the standings or had been soundly beaten by P&I, it would be fair game to say that they weren't as strong a team or weren't progressing, but it doesn't really make sense to say that Piper is 'not a world medal caliber ice dancer' when she has just vaulted up the standings. I'm not predicting that G&P will be on the World podium - all I know is that their chances of doing so down the road are greater than they were at this time last year.

  15. #45
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    Quote Originally Posted by desertskates View Post
    And that train of thought just brought on a whole other gut feeling--should Ashley find herself with a world medal next year, that may bring on a surprise retirement announcement. Hmmmm.....
    that's not going to happen...

    (gut feeling, of course )

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