In 2010, she won Skate America, got bronzes at NHK Trophy and GPF and a respectable 8th place at Worlds. The following year she started growing. Eventually she came into her own, but there were definitely some bumps along the way.
Also consider that Kanako was older than both Polina and Julia -- almost 16 at the start of the 2010-2011 senior when she debuted -- her growth came when she was 16 going on 17. (Sound of Music pun!)
I don't think Polina's going to dominate the world scene, but I do have the gut feeling that US Nationals may be another wonky one. For example, 1. Polina 2. Ashley 3. Gracie.
I do think those ladies will be the World team, but the battle between the three could be very close.
I hope they all stay healthy to keep it interesting and give them all a fair chance for what they want.
Gut also says Elena R. may have a rough growth spurt for some reason. She's not just short or just thin, she's all over tiny. But she could easily recover over time should that be the case.
And that train of thought just brought on a whole other gut feeling--should Ashley find herself with a world medal next year, that may bring on a surprise retirement announcement. Hmmmm.....
But I don't get this constant need for P&I fans to keep asserting they are better - the 2 teams are close in ability and can flip back and forth depending on the event. So I'm not sure one of them will 'overtake' the other permanently.
-Julia and Polina are going to go through puberty...this can make julia lost her flexibility and them to lost their jumps...especially julia and polina is so slow before she jumps...
-Adelina is not going to have a really successful year - -
Poirier and Gilles will explode past many in the next couple of years , his talent alone is unbelievable . The creativity of this couple is so reminiscent of Torvill and Dean and yes I think they are going to be that good . Patrick Chan will be back , but I don't think any of the disciplines will be dominated by one or two skaters or couples like it has been the last few years ! I am hoping the U S A skaters regain the past glory they enjoyed because the skating world needs skating to be popular in America again !
Adelina will retire from competitive skating since she can make more money skating professionally, especially in Russia.
Julia L and Radinova will struggle with puberty and their competition results will not match the early hype. I place my bets on Ana P to become Russia's #1 lady over the next quad.
Polina E will continue to improve, especially with the tutelage and input of Marina Klimova.
The Shibs will radically change choreo direction (yes, even under Zueva) and be successful on the world stage.
Skate Canada will continue to overhype Katlyn O, N Nyguen, and Weaver/Poje (who I think will retire mid-quad).
The Chinese and Canadian pairs will dominate eventually even if V/T continue to compete the next quad.
I/K will spilt and we will be spared another hackneyed Morozov program. I think another Russian team will inch closer to the podium as we near 2018 OGs (maybe one of the current junior/new senior teams).
Speedy will continue to try and kill figure skating. No one will stand up or challenge him on any of his half-a**ed, misguided initiatives.
P&I beat G&P once at Nationals at a time in which G&P had only recently gotten back onto the ice after months of being injured and weren't skating under optimal conditions. G&P went on to skate well at 4 Continents and nearly win it, and then went on to finish 8th at Worlds and beat P&I quite convincingly. That doesn't mean they will do so at all events in the future, but it does mean that the 2 teams are closely matched so far.
I don't see any evidence that Paul Poirier has been overscored anymore than any other National skater in Canada. He's been one of the most consistent skaters on the Canadian scene. He was on the podium 5 years in a row. He has now gotten into the Top 10 at Worlds with 2 different partners. But he certainly doesn't get his pick of GP assignments the way V&M or Chan did.
As for P&I, it's hard for their fans to complain about other teams being overmarked considering how inconsistent this team was until 2014 - there used to be a time when they had trouble just staying on their feet.
As for W&P, they and C&P were closely-matched teams and Vanessa Crone was a strong technical skater, so the marks were for her, and not just Poirier. They were above average in ability for their age and several seasons ago W&P were much more inconsistent than they are now. Remember that the international marks backed up the national marks. W&P usually finished below C&P internationally until March 2011. W&P have yet to win a medal at the GPF or win a GP event - that's not the fault of Poirier or Skate Canada.
As for Piper Gilles, I have no idea whether she will get on the World podium. I certainly don't think she is the next Tessa Virtue, but I do notice that some of her detractors keep on moving the benchmarks. Going into Worlds there were predictions that G&P had no chance of making the Top 10 and that P&I were a far better team. G&P ended up surpassing expectations by finishing 8th (and 7th in the FD) and easily beating P&I by 2 spots overall (and 3 spots in the FD).
If G&P had failed to move up in the standings or had been soundly beaten by P&I, it would be fair game to say that they weren't as strong a team or weren't progressing, but it doesn't really make sense to say that Piper is 'not a world medal caliber ice dancer' when she has just vaulted up the standings. I'm not predicting that G&P will be on the World podium - all I know is that their chances of doing so down the road are greater than they were at this time last year.