2010 Nationals - Vanessa fell during the twizzles, but that was the only mistake and they received a big deduction for it instead of the usual Level 4's they received. W&P did not skate cleanly - they didn't have a fall, but they were out of unison on their twizzles and were tight and played it safe. I re-watched it the other day and Tracy Wilson (who has more ice dance knowledge than you or I) pointed out that both teams were strong in different ways and it could go either way.
2011 Nationals - W&P and C&P each had a minor error in their FD (both Vanessa and Kaitlyn traveled on their twizzles) and it was again a close contest. W&P were rewarded with a Level 4 for their excellent footwork and won the technical mark. C&P were rewarded for the complicated choreography, lifts and other aspects of the Dean program. It would have been fair for it to go either way.
2012 Nationals - I think G&P were somewhat overmarked because I think the judges were marking Piper more along the lines of the way they would normally have marked Vanessa. So they probably should not have scored over 100 in their FD. But it didn't change much or deny anyone at World spot since Piper hadn't been released and R&H got to go to Worlds anyway. P&I didn't skate well so didn't miss out on anything to G&P.
2013 Nationals - G&P's FD score was probably a bit generous, but it didn't change the outcome in any way as P&I wiped out in the FD and R&H wiped out in the SD and both were off the podium and out of Worlds contention. It ended up being O&W who vaulted over both of them to end up on the podium with V&M and G&P.
C&P won medals at almost all their GP's, as well as doing better 2 years in a row at the GPF compared to W&P, so they were more consistent internationally. And they didn't just get assigned Skate Canada.
And you're showing a bit of a bias yourself since you forgot to mention that W&P had made errors of their own at 2010 & 2011 Nationals and had underperformed internationally. Btw, your contention that W&P were in the running for a medal at 2011 Worlds is pure supposition and doesn't make sense.
And if Skate Canada favours Poirier, I'd be interested to know why this is. You refer to insiders - have they explained why this apparent bias exists?
And btw, considering that W&P are clearly ahead of G&P in overall ability right now, I don't think Skate Canada plans to favour G&P over W&P. G&P have never been close rivals to W&P in the way C&P were.
Don't let 'pangtongfan' see this. He/she will think you are one of those crafty Skate Canada officials trying to shill for Poirier!
Originally Posted by pharmtech1
I think Gold will present yet another tired music choice to which she will skate as if she is an actress imitating a figure skater instead of actually feeling the music (I really like Gracie but I dislike really disliked her programs this year - they made her seem so fake). I think Polina will win nationals but will struggle with puberty in years to come. I think Ashley will continue to slide down the rankings of US skaters but I think this may fuel her to be even more aggressive and consistent (I think she does best when she is the underdog). I think she will stay another two years and then retire as the newer skaters overtake her.
I think Sotnikova will return and medal on the grand prix but will not dominate and will retire. I think Lipnitskaia will remain full of talent but somewhat inconsistent which will cost her at least one or two titles. I also think she will preform a lovely program but one that will be somewhat disappointing compared to Schindler's List which will be a difficult theme to top. Pogorilaya will continue to improve and will lead the charge of the baby russians most of whom will only last 1-2 seasons and then will never be heard from again. I think at least two Russian ladies will medal at worlds.
I hope Carolina retires, I would like for Mao to return but I don't think she will. I think there will be a rise of the young Koreans as well as improvement of the Chinese but I think the Japanese ladies will fad a little internationally.
I think Brown will stuggle with a Quad, Kovtun will remain inconsistent and Hunyu will dominate although rarely with a clean program.
V/T will win everything they enter but the young chinese teams will rise and begin to medal consistently as well. I don't think they'll challenge v/t though, I also think D/R will continue to be overscored (just my opinion) and the US will spend another quadrant with no podium finishes at worlds in pairs.
Ice Dance: I have no idea what to expect but it should be fun to see who dominates. I do think that Davis and White will sit out this season but will return for a comeback in 2-3 years.
Misc: I predict I will dislike the use of lyrics in the pairs/men/ladies programs but I don't think many people will use any lyrics. I predict at least 50% of those who do will be using music that is at least 25 years old (Michael Jackson and Beatles may soon have to join the banned music list...). I also predict Tara and Johnnie will call worlds on NBCSN (which I will enjoy).
This is funny to me because there were a lot of people (some who considered themselves very "knowledgeable") stating outright that Jason would never get the 3A, either...
Originally Posted by Risa
We will see our first Russian ladies' sweep of the Worlds podium.
The Shibutanis will get knocked off Grand Prix podiums by teams like Coomes/Buckland, Gilles/Poirer, and Papadakis/Cizeron.
Isabella Tobias will continue giving me life.
P/B Appreciation Squad
Aaron will surprise us all next season.
Nagasu will have an amazing SP and shock everybody. Tom Z said he could see a 3A in her future. This is probably just my inner Mirai bias sneaking in, but I think if she works hard enough she could get it.
Maybe Polina dominating Gracie, if she can pass the puberty.
Gracie is going to do an exhibition to Taylor Swift, now that they've met. I can see one to Sad Beautiful Tragic or The Story Of Us.
C/B are going to start getting reputation points and will rocket up.
I/K are going to stay together, but change coaches.
Kanako's not going to retire, and neither is Mao.
Yulia's going to destroy the puberty monster.
Not much to say on pairs. V/T are going to keep winning everything they go to. I hope Aliona does well with her new partner though.
I actually think Jason might be one of those skaters who is better at a 4T than a 3A. He seems to be very comfortable with toe jumps.
Originally Posted by karne
Well, puberty shmuberty. The onset of puberty is just the first hurdle a maturing skater has to clear. People continue to grow and fill out, albeit at a slower pace, throughout their teens and even into the early 20s.
If I was a gambler, I'd put my money on Anna P. as the Russian girl who might have the most difficulty with body changes in the future. I know some think that because she looks more physically mature than some of the others, she is no longer susceptible to growth issues. My gut instinct tells me different. My observation has been that early bloomers who look more womanly at an earlier age, tend to get "womanlier" as they go through their late teens.
It's difficult to predict how these 15 year old wunderkinds are going to develop. I suspect we will be in for some surprises.
Men's- Jason gets the quad over the summer. His PCS never return to earth. He makes the GPF, wins Nats and makes the final group at Worlds. Max has a much stronger season as US #2. Jeremy stays in another year but the US judges don't send him to Worlds and send Farris instead. Chan doesn't return. Hanyu continues to dominate and wins Wolrlds again with a mistake or two. Kovtun medals at the GPF and beats Javi at Euros.
Ladies- With the pressure of being US #1 gone, Wagner has a strong GP, make the final and has a much better Nationals than the past two years. Gold starts off less impressively, loses her National title but medals at Worlds. Polina wins at least one of her GPs, her PCS rise swiftly. Gao retires, Zawadski does not. Julia struggles with puberty. Adelina does not return. Radionova medals at the GPF, wins Euros and medals at Worlds. Tukt starts skating better. Mao stays in and has a wildly uneven season- brilliant at times, messy at others.
Pairs- V&T skate during the GP but after seeing S&K win their GP events, they don't show up for any head to head competition with them citing Max's old injuries. The Chinese continue to have great short programs but struggle with getting it done in the long. No Worlds medals for them. MT/M finally get GPF and Worlds medals but lose Canadians to D/R who struggle at times but remain a factor. C/S look okay but not great on the GP and people start saying they won't make the World team. They end up winning their 3rd US title and crack the top 8 at Worlds. Z/B repeat as silver medalists when they execute cleanly at Nationals and S/K do not. Kayne & O'Shea podium at Nationals. D&C compete but are either sidelined by another injury or simply passed by younger teams including her sister. They retire at the end of the season. The Yanskowskas British pairing never goes anywhere. People continue to create hypothetical partnerships for Rockne- Aliona, Vera, Marissa etc.
Dance- The big 2 don't return but D/W never make an official retirement announcement. They say they are sitting out the season and keeping their options open. I & K don't split. They're brilliant at times but continue to make key errors at others. They lose Worlds again but end up on the podium. Chock & Bates rise up the ranks and make the GPF, finishing 4th at Worlds to set them up for a medal in Boston. Hawayaek and Baker are the US silver medalists. Shibs remain 3rd as Hubbell/Donohue struggle with coming back from injury. W&P win Worlds. McNamara and Carpenter dominate Juniors.
In search of a summer sport to love <3
Lol, my gut says the same. I want it to happen for her, but I do think she said it best herself when she pulled out the phrase "the almost girl". Le sigh...
Originally Posted by R.D.
I do think she'll do well in the Grand Prix, but the gut says we might see a Russian sweep next year at Worlds.
Size 7 Knife Boots
If it makes you feel any better watching Ashley nail that FS built my confidence back up. I'd love to see her, or anyone for that matter, skate with that much intent and execution consistently next season. I really only want to see one Russian on that podium next year so there is plenty of room in my heart to root her on.
Originally Posted by desertskates
In search of a summer sport to love <3
Oh, I'll definitely keep rooting her on! She gets the gold medal for fighting spirit for sure
Hope I/K stay together and get as far as humanly possible away from Morozov -- maybe go to Marina.
Hope Jason gets his quad and Ashley keeps going -- her worlds performance was surprisingly good.
It'll be interesting to see how Denney/Coughlin do -- can they get their title back?
My gut tells me that of the 3 Russian girls going to Sr.Worlds in 2015, two will be new faces internationally. Sui/Han will medal at Worlds. Chock & Bates will win on the Grand Prix & Max Aaron & Gracie Gold will be US National champions once again.
I don't think that's possible because of age requirements. None of the up-and-rising girls from Junior Worlds will be old enough for senior international competitions in 2014-2015. The ones who are have all made their international debut.
Originally Posted by merrywidow