Predictions/Things that didn't happen for the 2011-14 quad

fleeting · Apr 4, 2014

I wasn't expecting the Shibs and C/B to get it together for Worlds should D/W be out of the picture (I predicted in 2012). A very pleasant surprise this year!
And I never, ever, in a thousand years couldn't have predicted D/W beating V/M on home turf at 2013 Worlds. Another pleasant surprise.
I thought Nagasu would do well in this quad, after 4th in Vancouver. I'm still holding hope for her, though.
I never thought Sotnikova would get an OGM. I had her pinned for bronze at most.
And Carolina getting it together was something I didn't anticipate. It's great to see that she could!

pangtongfan · Apr 4, 2014

Wouldnt have ever predicted the steep and permanent fall for the Shibutanis after the 2011 Worlds. I was pretty certain even the day after their bronze medal they werent going to repeat their medal at next years Worlds, especialy in France. However I expected by the time of the 2014 Olympics they would be contending for atleast the bronze. They were never medal contenders by that point though, and had been passed by a whole bunch of teams, many of them much older than them.

I wouldnt have predicted the breakup of Crone & Poirier.

I wouldnt have predicted the massive resurgence of the Russian team to the extent it has.

I wouldnt have predicted Chan to be dominant for 3 years, to the point the judges saw him as 5+ falls better than the rest. I thought at most he would be one of the guys contending for gold medals, and with the possability of winning them only if he skated great (and even then not certain to), just as he was in 2009-2010.

pangtongfan · Apr 4, 2014

Those are the 4 year out ones I am thinking of. If you mean more short term I wouldnt have ever predicted Sotnikova to win the OGM up until just before the womens long program (although after the short program judging, and the moment I saw the womens long program panel, Putin in the audience, and 2 of the 3 tech. callers being Russian based, I knew she was going to win unless she fell 4 times and Yu Na did 3 different types of quads in a perfect skate).

Like pretty everyone else I wouldnt have predicted Capellini & Lanotte to win Worlds. Even after their short dance win I didnt really think they would win, and as it turns out that they were only 4th in the FD and still won due to their excellent SD.

I wouldnt have predicted Ten to medal at the Olympics. No way. Not even after his world silver last year. That result was almost as surprising, as I think most felt that result was a one off, and even more after a poor and injured plagued season this year.

pohatta · Apr 5, 2014

I don't think anyone could have predicted 4 years ago that Finland has no skaters in Sochi. Back then we for example expected Jenni Vähämaa to come back from her injury.

Michelle's Spiral · Apr 14, 2014

pangtongfan said:
Wouldnt have ever predicted the steep and permanent fall for the Shibutanis after the 2011 Worlds. I was pretty certain even the day after their bronze medal they werent going to repeat their medal at next years Worlds, especialy in France. However I expected by the time of the 2014 Olympics they would be contending for atleast the bronze. They were never medal contenders by that point though, and had been passed by a whole bunch of teams, many of them much older than them.

I wouldnt have predicted the breakup of Crone & Poirier.

I wouldnt have predicted the massive resurgence of the Russian team to the extent it has.

I wouldnt have predicted Chan to be dominant for 3 years, to the point the judges saw him as 5+ falls better than the rest. I thought at most he would be one of the guys contending for gold medals, and with the possability of winning them only if he skated great (and even then not certain to), just as he was in 2009-2010.

I think that C/B are best poised to emerge as America's top dance team, but I wouldn't count the Shibs out just yet. A lot can happen over the next quad.

pointyourtoe · Apr 14, 2014

I thought Akiko would be more dominant

Ryan O · Apr 14, 2014

pangtongfan said:
I wouldnt have predicted the breakup of Crone & Poirier.

Neither would I, and those of us who follow skating were surprised. It was also surprising when Samuelson & Bates split at the same time. But those partnerships are over now and they have moved on to better ones. With last month's result at Worlds, Poirier is now back to where he was in the World standings with Crone 3 years ago (Top 10/Top 8), and Bates is making major progress with Chock and is now Top 5.

Rubirosa · Apr 14, 2014

sky_fly20 said:
looking back at last quad, some things just arent meant to be, or something happened that it didn't go as predicted by many

* No one can challenge Chan for 2014 Sochi Olympics
* Tuk was an OGM contender
* Osmond was OM contender
* D/R are OBM locks
* Wagner was the token US lady for the Olympics
* Nagasu would dominate leading to 2014 Olympics
* The quick ascent of S/H in Pairs
* Yuna will not return
* Carolina Kostner is the ultimate elite Headcase
* Takahashi is OM contender for Sochi
* Lipnitkaya will not make the Olympic Team
* some writing Mao off after her 2011 Season
* Crone/Poirer will challenge Worlds in coming seasons and Olympics never mind ending the partnerhip
* Kavaguti/Smirnov will challenge for Pairs medal in Sochi
* Virtue/Moir will continue dominating for another quad
* Sotnikova cannot get her act together and has no chance of an OM
* Denney / Coughlin would make the Olympics Team
* Max Aaron a lock for US Olympic Team

Why did some people try stupidly to turn this thread into Gracie thread? She wasn't even mentioned by sky-fly. You have issue with the poster, take it to PM. Argue the argument, not the poster. OP actually pointed out things correctly. It reminds us again how silly all those "predictions" can be and how unpredictable the results are, in some or even most cases. First- injuries, so comnon in this sport. Kawaguchi/Smirnov got injured, so did Takahashi, they were out of game. Tessa too dealt with health issues

spikydurian · Apr 14, 2014

I didn't expect LTalk to be replaced by Sky Fly.

pangtongfan · Apr 14, 2014

Michelle's Spiral said:
I think that C/B are best poised to emerge as America's top dance team, but I wouldn't count the Shibs out just yet. A lot can happen over the next quad.

Perhaps, but that is irrelevant to this thread. The 2011-2014 quad is already over and the Shibutanis went through an unexpected (to most) steep decline over the remainder of that quad. BTW if the Shibutanis are behind Chock & Bates they wont be on any major podiums. The ISU is not going to have 2 American teams and 3 NA teams on world or olympic podiums even with both V&M and D&W retired. Not a chance.

Ryan O · Apr 14, 2014

pangtongfan said:
Perhaps, but that is irrelevant to this thread. The 2011-2014 quad is already over and the Shibutanis went through an unexpected (to most) steep decline over the remainder of that quad. BTW if the Shibutanis are behind Chock & Bates they wont be on any major podiums. The ISU is not going to have 2 American teams and 3 NA teams on world or olympic podiums even with both V&M and D&W retired. Not a chance.

That's probably true. It's probably not a coincidence that W&P were not allowed to get on the World podium until after V&M and D&W were absent. So if W&P are going to be on the podium now, that could mean that only one other NA team will be allowed to join them there. So this could affect the C&B and Shibutani career path, as well as the G&P and P&I one as well. Although several of these NA teams moved up the standings last month, they might be made to wait a few years by the judges before being allowed on the podium.

pangtongfan · Apr 14, 2014

Ryan O said:
That's probably true. It's probably not a coincidence that W&P were not allowed to get on the World podium until after V&M and D&W were absent. So if W&P are going to be on the podium now, that could mean that only one other NA team will be allowed to join them there. So this could affect the C&B and Shibutani career path, as well as the G&P and P&I one as well. Although several of these NA teams moved up the standings last month, they might be made to wait a few years by the judges before being allowed on the podium.

I am pretty sure the Europeans were peeved in a big way watching the total dominance of D&W and V&M which they could do absolutely nothing about, as like it or not those two were head and shoulders above all others. Now with them gone I see them not being overly generous to a crop of NA teams, who while very good, are nothing like the undeniable V&M and D&W, atleast not yet. Yes since W&P will probably be on the podium most of the time that is bad news for the others. They might not even want a 2nd NA team on the podium, as after years of frusterating NA dominance they might want to see the golds mostly going to Europe and atleast 2 of the 3 medals, but if a 2nd NA team is allowed as things are now that would probably be C&B. So for a team like the Shibutanis if they are only going to remain U.S #2 they certainly wont be seeing future world podiums. They must find a way somehow to atleast pass C&B.

I also think the 2011 worlds all NA podium (which was really a total accident and fluke and came about only due to a huge two person fall by P&B) really upset the European dance community, and while they had some legit issues that caused their downfall, the Shibutanis also payed a heavy price in the years to come. IMO that world bronze might prove to be the deteriment of the rest of their careers. It has thus far.

Anyway if they never allowed another NA sweep after 2011 even with V&M and D&W, two of the best teams ever both from NA, both around. They sure as hell wont let it happen now.

Ryan O · Apr 14, 2014

Yes, the Shibutanis have kind of been treading water for the past several seasons. Not only have they had trouble going back up, but they've had other teams overtaking them (W&P, C&B, I&K etc.) that they used to place ahead of. And now they also have other teams at this year's Worlds who have begun closing in on them (I was surprised to see G&P come within less than a point of the Shibs in the FD). It's also possible that P&I could move in on The Shibs down the road if they can keep skating more consistently. H&D are also a potential challenge for the Shibs if Madison's surgery turns out to be successful and they begin to move up.

Matt K · Apr 14, 2014

I think it is still a little early to predict how deep or not the field is going into 2018. Some people hate B/S, but let's face it. They and I/K could have had an incredible rivalry these next four years, which will never happen because of the split. B/S & I/K were getting marks that D/W were not even getting in 2009-2010 also. And in the last quad from around 2007-2010 the field seemed very deep, with French D/S, Russian D/S, V/M, B/A, K/N. At least around 2007-2009 before pregnancies and injuries got the best of French D/S, Russian D/S, V/M. It paved the way for D/W to win a medal in 2010, who were the only healthy skaters. And then, the field didn't seem deep anymore with all these injuries to key teams like V/M, the French D/S, the Russian D/S, B/A.

Aside from V/M's dominance in Vancouver, the rest of the field didn't seem as deep as in 2007 and 2008 because of all the injuries to D/S, V/M and the pregnancy of the French D/S. B/A also had some back problem for him. These chain of events all led to D/W's Olympic medal win in 2010, who had never before won any medal at Worlds, unlike V/M, French D/S, Russian D/S, K/N, and B/A.

I think we can only gauge frontrunners during the Olympic season because the depth of the field can change very quickly, as we saw pre-2010.

Mista Ekko · Apr 14, 2014

This thread had a possibility or relevance,

But the original post was so manipulative that it died right there.

CanadianSkaterGuy · Apr 14, 2014

Eladola said:
This thread had a possibility or relevance,

But the original post was so manipulative that it died right there.

:thumbsup:

LiamForeman · Apr 24, 2014

CaroLiza_fan said:
I think the date was referring to when the prediction was made rather than when the Olympics was.

Incidentally, great idea for a thread. :agree: Pity it is already getting bitchy... :disapp:

CaroLiza_fan

Yes, that's how I interpreted the year marker, but I don't think Sky is the bitchy one. Some people become ubers because their skating touches them and they believe in future greatness.

Mine:
1. Chan would win Sochi with a poorly skated program. At least he won silver with a poorly skated program, so I was close.
2. Was waiting for the puberty monster to destroy JuLip. This was a prediction I'm glad did not pan out. She was wonderful this season. A breath of fresh air.
3. As for US Ladiezzz, at the beginning of the quad I fully expected some more US titles and world medals from Mirai Nagasu. Who'd believe towards the end she'd get it together, place third at Nationals but get left off the team? That was unprecedented.
4. Asada would continue her downward spiral.
5. Yuna would win gold again.

LiamForeman · Apr 24, 2014

Eladola said:
This thread had a possibility or relevance,

But the original post was so manipulative that it died right there.

Then why comment, may I ask? If you do not have anything to offer the thread, then just leave and move on.

Predictions/Things that didn't happen for the 2011-14 quad

fleeting

Queen Anissina

pangtongfan

Match Penalty

pangtongfan

Match Penalty

pohatta

Michelle's Spiral

pointyourtoe

Ryan O

Rubirosa

Match Penalty

spikydurian

pangtongfan

Match Penalty

Ryan O

pangtongfan

Match Penalty

Ryan O

Matt K

Mista Ekko

CanadianSkaterGuy

LiamForeman

William/Uilyam

LiamForeman

William/Uilyam

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