2014-15 Season Preview | Page 5 | Golden Skate

2014-15 Season Preview

Ryan O

Final Flight
Joined
Mar 5, 2004
Country
Canada
Everyone knows that Cup of Russia was the biggest farce of judging last season, in conjunction with scores from Sochi. Lipnitskaia winning with 3 triples (and a score of 118), B/S winning with a fall in their FD and higher PCS than W/P. Then of course Sotnikova in the individual event in Sochi, Plushenko in the team FS in Sochi being held up even though other skaters should have certainly placed higher, and both of V/T's FS throw errors being neglected. After Sochi/CoR, who would wanna compete in Russia again?

Yes, the judging at Cup of Russia was unfair. There was a bias in favour of the Russian skaters. And we definitely saw that in dance. All the non-Russian dance teams took large hits in their marks. It happened to G&P as well, who dropped 10 points from their NHK score earlier in the month. You could particularly see it in the levels given for some of the elements like footwork sequences where the Russian dance teams received high levels, and all the non-Russian teams received low levels.

But let's be honest about one thing - Canadian skaters do tend to get a bit of inflation of their own at Skate Canada. I'm Canadian myself and am willing to admit that. It's not as bad as it was at Cup of Russia, but there tends to be an edge given to Canadians in some events.
 

skatefan17

On the Ice
Joined
Feb 9, 2014
Gracie came an impressive 4th at the Olympic beating Julia, came close to medal at World scoring 70+ in SP
though she missed on the podium, 2016 Worlds in Boston is hers to lose, 2014-2015 is perfect season to build her campaign
2 solid GP wins can get her to GPF and can win her a Worlds medal if she does well next season

She was almost clean with only one fall at the Olympics, and Julia skated remarkably worse and was right behind her. Look at World's, with Julia being able to do what Gracie's been yet unable to do: perform under pressure. Gracie should have had no pressure going into World's, the bronze was hers to lose, and she lost it. I don't have faith in her anymore, but I'm curious to see what kind of program she will bring this season. If she totally revamps her programs (and gets away from the princess, classical routines Frank gave her), she might have a chance. But she must perform when it counts.
 

pangtongfan

Match Penalty
Joined
Jun 16, 2010
I think USFS will be out to prove they made the absolutely right decision and are probably not thrilled Mirai is not just quietly retiring. I expect that tech caller at Nationals to show her no mercy. And I say this as someone who enjoyed her immensely in Boston. I also don't expect Wagner to lay another egg at Nationals with the pressure of defending a title and an Olympic year now off her shoulders.

Sadly you are right probably. It is unfortunate as Mirai is a much more talented skater than Ashley, but Ashley even today has the USFSA favor over Mirai in a big way.

Mirai will have to pull out something remarkable to ever make another U.S world team with Gold, Wagner, and now even Edmunds firmly above her, and who knows who else coming up. 2012 is where Wagner solidifed herself firmly above Nagasu. 2013 is when Gold did. And now 2014 is probably where Edmunds has,

It is funny how there used to be a day a clean Wagner couldnt dream of beating a clean Flatt, clean Nagasu, clean Czisny, or even clean Zhang. In fact it was that way a very long time. Wagner sure picked herself up at the right time where there was a void at the top of U.S ladies, and has given herself a protected status of sorts since.
 

pangtongfan

Match Penalty
Joined
Jun 16, 2010
Yes, the judging at Cup of Russia was unfair. There was a bias in favour of the Russian skaters. And we definitely saw that in dance. All the non-Russian dance teams took large hits in their marks. It happened to G&P as well, who dropped 10 points from their NHK score earlier in the month. You could particularly see it in the levels given for some of the elements like footwork sequences where the Russian dance teams received high levels, and all the non-Russian teams received low levels.

But let's be honest about one thing - Canadian skaters do tend to get a bit of inflation of their own at Skate Canada. I'm Canadian myself and am willing to admit that. It's not as bad as it was at Cup of Russia, but there tends to be an edge given to Canadians in some events.

There is some biased judging at Skate Canada you are right. Chan didnt deserve to win there in 2010 (over Oda) or 2011 (over Fernandez), but Chan is majorly held up all over the world so Skate Canada probably had minimal to do with this. Osmond didnt deserve to win there in 2012 at all. They tried to gift D&R the victory after a mistake filled skated with inflated PCS last year.

That is also true of Skate America and NHK, two other grand prix events hosted by major skating powers.

However the worst by far is the Rostelecom Cup. No other comes even close. In terms of bias I would rank them as:

1. Rostelecom Cup



2. NHK
3. Skate Canada


4. Skate America



5. Trophee Bompard
6. Cup of China

really not much or any at the bottom two, which is good. They have to host the events at venues they are major skating powers as otherwise they wouldnt even get the audiences. Major skating countries are more likely to have homecourt bias though.
 

hanca

Record Breaker
Joined
Sep 23, 2008
There is some biased judging at Skate Canada you are right. Chan didnt deserve to win there in 2010 (over Oda) or 2011 (over Fernandez), but Chan is majorly held up all over the world so Skate Canada probably had minimal to do with this. Osmond didnt deserve to win there in 2012 at all. They tried to gift D&R the victory after a mistake filled skated with inflated PCS last year.

That is also true of Skate America and NHK, two other grand prix events hosted by major skating powers.

However the worst by far is the Rostelecom Cup. No other comes even close. In terms of bias I would rank them as:

1. Rostelecom Cup



2. NHK
3. Skate Canada


4. Skate America



5. Trophee Bompard
6. Cup of China

really not much or any at the bottom two, which is good. They have to host the events at venues they are major skating powers as otherwise they wouldnt even get the audiences. Major skating countries are more likely to have homecourt bias though.


In my view it is the other way around:
1. Skate Canada



2. Skate America
3. Rostelecom Cup


4. NHK



5. Trophee Bompard
6. Cup of China
 

flutzy13

On the Ice
Joined
Nov 12, 2012
Interesting, I've heard the USFS is done with a skater, they try to give them Cup or Russia and or Cup of China. 2013 Cup of Russia had Mirai and Agnes had both so I wonder if there's any truth to that.
 

CanadianSkaterGuy

Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 25, 2013
But let's be honest about one thing - Canadian skaters do tend to get a bit of inflation of their own at Skate Canada. I'm Canadian myself and am willing to admit that. It's not as bad as it was at Cup of Russia, but there tends to be an edge given to Canadians in some events.

Oh I agree that national inflation happens whenever skaters are on home ice (including Canadians like Osmond in 2012, and Chan in 2011), but Cup of Russia was totally egregious.

Also Chan in 2011 over Javier wasn't robbery. They scored essentially the same TES scores in the FS (Javier fell once, and Chan twice), and Chan being a much superior skater to Fernandez in 2011 gave him PCS to keep him close after the SP and to pull away in the FS. Fernandez was having his breakout season so he was a Denis Ten of sorts... if it was the improved Javier of 2013/2014, you'd expect his skating to have been better with higher PCS that would have given him the win. But in 2011, his skating while steadily improving couldn't hold a candle to Chan's (like the rest of the field, other than Takahashi).
 

CanadianSkaterGuy

Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 25, 2013
She was almost clean with only one fall at the Olympics, and Julia skated remarkably worse and was right behind her. Look at World's, with Julia being able to do what Gracie's been yet unable to do: perform under pressure. Gracie should have had no pressure going into World's, the bronze was hers to lose, and she lost it. I don't have faith in her anymore, but I'm curious to see what kind of program she will bring this season. If she totally revamps her programs (and gets away from the princess, classical routines Frank gave her), she might have a chance. But she must perform when it counts.

That's a little harsh. This was only her 2nd competitive season. She underwhelmed on the GP and at Worlds, but she did have a fairly solid Nationals performance and helped the US secure the bronze in Sochi with a great team FS. She's certainly not the wonderchild people paint her out to be, but she doesn't suck either and has had a few season highlights.
 

CanadianSkaterGuy

Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 25, 2013
In my view it is the other way around:
1. Skate Canada
2. Skate America
3. Rostelecom Cup
4. NHK
5. Trophee Bompard
6. Cup of China

I'm sorry, but I don't think any Canadian or American singles skater has ever received personal best PCS with just 3-triples, and I don't think any American or Canadian pair/ice dancer has ever received a personal best score with a fall. Both happened at CoR.

NHK with Akiko being held below Mao was pretty bad too.

Gotta love TEB and Cup of China being the prettier sisters... although I'm sure if either country had well-rounded disciplines you'd see more politicking/PCS boosts for their skaters, too.
 

chuckm

Record Breaker
Joined
Aug 31, 2003
Country
United-States
Interesting, I've heard the USFS is done with a skater, they try to give them Cup or Russia and or Cup of China. 2013 Cup of Russia had Mirai and Agnes had both so I wonder if there's any truth to that.

It doesn't work that way. USFS has no say where their skaters will be invited. Other than the top two seeds (who pick the events they want) and the host invitations to their own skaters, the whole GP process is done by the hosts drawing lots at each stage of selection. After the host picks, the top two seeds name their events, and the remaining two events go to the #3 seed. Then the hosts draw lots for each remaining category selection: seeds 4-6, worlds finishers 7-9, worlds finishers 10-12, top 24 on WR list (if not already selected), top 24 on SB list (if not already selected), etc.

The host who draws first has first pick per category; the host who draws 6th gets whoever is left in that category. No way can USFS influence the outcome of the draw.

It is possible that for CoR, the Russian Fed may pick skaters that won't offer much competition to their own stars. Since both Nagasu and Zawadzki haven't exactly been consistently good on the GP circuit they may fit that criteria.
 

Macassar88

Medalist
Joined
Dec 21, 2011
I'm sorry, but I don't think any Canadian or American singles skater has ever received personal best PCS with just 3-triples, and I don't think any American or Canadian pair/ice dancer has ever received a personal best score with a fall. Both happened at CoR.

NHK with Akiko being held below Mao was pretty bad too.

Gotta love TEB and Cup of China being the prettier sisters... although I'm sure if either country had well-rounded disciplines you'd see more politicking/PCS boosts for their skaters, too.

Kaetlyn Osmond - that is all
 

Ryan O

Final Flight
Joined
Mar 5, 2004
Country
Canada
Interesting, I've heard the USFS is done with a skater, they try to give them Cup or Russia and or Cup of China. 2013 Cup of Russia had Mirai and Agnes had both so I wonder if there's any truth to that.

Hmm. Interesting. Hadn't heard that before. I will pay close attention to who the USFS assigns to those events next season. :popcorn:
 

chuckm

Record Breaker
Joined
Aug 31, 2003
Country
United-States
USFS does NOT "assign" skaters to CoR or CoC! The Russian Fed chooses the skaters for CoR and the Chinese Fed chooses the skaters for CoC.
 

nimi

Medalist
Joined
Apr 7, 2014
It doesn't work that way. USFS has no say where their skaters will be invited. Other than the top two seeds (who pick the events they want) and the host invitations to their own skaters, the whole GP process is done by the hosts drawing lots at each stage of selection. After the host picks, the top two seeds name their events, and the remaining two events go to the #3 seed. Then the hosts draw lots for each remaining category selection: seeds 4-6, worlds finishers 7-9, worlds finishers 10-12, top 24 on WR list (if not already selected), top 24 on SB list (if not already selected), etc.

The host who draws first has first pick per category; the host who draws 6th gets whoever is left in that category. No way can USFS influence the outcome of the draw.

It is possible that for CoR, the Russian Fed may pick skaters that won't offer much competition to their own stars. Since both Nagasu and Zawadzki haven't exactly been consistently good on the GP circuit they may fit that criteria.
Thanks for clearing this up!

Have you thought about posting this explanation in the 'References' section with a heading 'How does the seeding work' or something? The seeding/picking procedure is obviously something that confuses a lot of posters here, so it would benefit everybody if this was posted somewhere where it is easy to find and link to, instead of getting buried in this thread. Just a thought. :)
 

flutzy13

On the Ice
Joined
Nov 12, 2012
USFS does NOT "assign" skaters to CoR or CoC! The Russian Fed chooses the skaters for CoR and the Chinese Fed chooses the skaters for CoC.

I do know that is technically how it works. My comment was going off comments made by Jenny Kirk on multiple TSL eps that you knew where you were in the USFS pecking order based on your GPs. She basically said she decided to retire when USFS called her and told her she was assigned Cup of Russia because she knew it meant they were done supporting her. So perhaps certain politicking and dealmaking goes on behind the scenes with the federations with regard to lineups. Perhaps not but I don't think its unreasonable to believe anything in skating is not totally transparent.
 

karne

in Emergency Backup Mode
Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 1, 2013
Country
Australia
I expect that tech caller at Nationals to show her no mercy.

And nor should they. In fact, if the tech caller at Boston hadn't been so soft, Mirai would not have finished third, and there never would have been a controversy. It is to Mirai's advantage when the tech caller is strict - it tells her that the problem has not magically gone away and she still needs to work on it.

Interesting, I've heard the USFS is done with a skater, they try to give them Cup or Russia and or Cup of China. 2013 Cup of Russia had Mirai and Agnes had both so I wonder if there's any truth to that.

Uh, heck, what does that say about Joshua Farris?
 

flutzy13

On the Ice
Joined
Nov 12, 2012
Uh, heck, what does that say about Joshua Farris?

I didn't say it was hard science- just that there has been speculation that federation politics may in some cases factor into GP assignments. Perhaps its as transparent and straightforward as some believe. And as far as Josh, he's obviously up and coming, he also got Skate Canada, I don't think it says anything at all.
 

chuckm

Record Breaker
Joined
Aug 31, 2003
Country
United-States
Look at the skaters the Russian Fed originally picked for CoR (Men). It's fairly plain that the skaters were chosen that would pose the least competition for Kovtun:

Seeds:
Fernandez - the #3 seed and known to falter in the early season
Reynolds - the #5 seed, but clearly much less of a threat than #4 Hanyu and #6 Takahashi

Worlds 7-9: #9 Joubert - preferable to #7 Aaron or #8 Mura
Worlds 10-12: #11 Liebers - didn't have cachet or resume of #10 Brezina or #12 Amodio

Top 24 SB/WR:
Machida - won CoC 2012 but was 7th at 2012 4CC
Dornbush - had an extensive history of 5th place finishes in the GP--no medals
Farris - JW champion moving up to GP for the first time.

It isn't uncommon for a host to try to assemble a less-competitive field to protect the home skater.
 

Ryan O

Final Flight
Joined
Mar 5, 2004
Country
Canada
It isn't uncommon for a host to try to assemble a less-competitive field to protect the home skater.

True, although sometimes the opposite occurs and there is a competitive field right in a skater's own backyard. But perhaps that is becoming less common now than it was a decade ago. I think there is more emphasis on points and GP wins today and the strategy behind it. But there was a time when you would sometimes have several of the top skaters at the same event. One I remember well was Skate Canada 2000 where Sale & Pelletier had to face off against Elena & Anton and Petrova & Tikonhov. S&P ended up winning that event, but that was about as competitive as it could be considering they were facing off against 2 sets of World Champions.

But nowadays you're right that we often don't see the top skaters together until the GPF. V&M and D&W didn't skate against each other last season until the GPF, for example. But Chan and Hanyu both faced off at Skate Canada (and TEB). So it depends.
 
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