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Thread: 2014-15 Season Preview

  1. #76
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    Quote Originally Posted by CanadianSkaterGuy View Post
    That is a big wish. I hope Mirai will do well, but she would be pressed to beat Wagner. If Wagner bombs and Mirai skates cleanly, like at Nationals, sure... but I would hardly expect either to happen all season.
    I think USFS will be out to prove they made the absolutely right decision and are probably not thrilled Mirai is not just quietly retiring. I expect that tech caller at Nationals to show her no mercy. And I say this as someone who enjoyed her immensely in Boston. I also don't expect Wagner to lay another egg at Nationals with the pressure of defending a title and an Olympic year now off her shoulders.

  2. #77
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    Quote Originally Posted by sky_fly20 View Post
    I predict 2014-15 as breakout year for Sui/Han
    and we could be seeing a total domination by Gracie in the Grand Prix series, World silver or World gold leading to Boston 2016
    Elena will be the top Russian in 2015, a World medal
    I LOVE Gracie, and actually have only started following skating again because of her, and even I am not that delusional. I think she had her golden chance these past two competitions (Olympics included), and she missed it. I don't see her improving greatly, and especially with the rising Russians, I think it's unlikely for her to medal this season.

  3. #78
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    Quote Originally Posted by flutzy13 View Post
    I think USFS will be out to prove they made the absolutely right decision and are probably not thrilled Mirai is not just quietly retiring. I expect that tech caller at Nationals to show her no mercy. And I say this as someone who enjoyed her immensely in Boston. I also don't expect Wagner to lay another egg at Nationals with the pressure of defending a title and an Olympic year now off her shoulders.
    Well, Mirai is also a bit of a dud internationally with Wagner having much better potential for good results. Even though she was "only" 7th at Worlds, Wagner posted a strong score which would have won a lot of GP events last season (not to mention she DID win a GP event last season). And if Carolina/Mao/Suzuki are out, that puts her as the 4th best skater from Worlds, so obviously a GP win contender (though not assured with the upcoming Russians and possibly a solid return of Sotnikova). Mirai on the other hand is unlikely to post scores as good as Wagner... and if she does skate well technically perhaps it'll come at a cost of the program (as we saw at Nationals). I do hope Mirai can bounce back though because she has experienced success in the past (the bronze on the GP last year was a nice surprise), but her inconsistency might be too hard to overcome.

  4. #79
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    Quote Originally Posted by skatefan17 View Post
    I LOVE Gracie, and actually have only started following skating again because of her, and even I am not that delusional. I think she had her golden chance these past two competitions (Olympics included), and she missed it. I don't see her improving greatly, and especially with the rising Russians, I think it's unlikely for her to medal this season.
    I think with the rise of the Russians, Gold will be denied at least one GP win, and certainly denied the gold at the GPF. She has ground to make up on Lipnitskaia, and Radionova's PCS/scores will likely get a boost this year, considering her consistency (similar to Julia's second season).

    Gold's lip and axel issues also need to be ironed out. If she's to beat Lipnitskaia she will have to deliver both a clean SP and a clean FS in one competition, and that is something she has yet to deliver (although something she's entirely capable of delivering).

  5. #80
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    Quote Originally Posted by skatefan17 View Post
    I LOVE Gracie, and actually have only started following skating again because of her, and even I am not that delusional. I think she had her golden chance these past two competitions (Olympics included), and she missed it. I don't see her improving greatly, and especially with the rising Russians, I think it's unlikely for her to medal this season.
    Gracie came an impressive 4th at the Olympic beating Julia, came close to medal at World scoring 70+ in SP
    though she missed on the podium, 2016 Worlds in Boston is hers to lose, 2014-2015 is perfect season to build her campaign
    2 solid GP wins can get her to GPF and can win her a Worlds medal if she does well next season

  6. #81
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    Quote Originally Posted by CanadianSkaterGuy View Post
    Everyone knows that Cup of Russia was the biggest farce of judging last season, in conjunction with scores from Sochi. Lipnitskaia winning with 3 triples (and a score of 118), B/S winning with a fall in their FD and higher PCS than W/P. Then of course Sotnikova in the individual event in Sochi, Plushenko in the team FS in Sochi being held up even though other skaters should have certainly placed higher, and both of V/T's FS throw errors being neglected. After Sochi/CoR, who would wanna compete in Russia again?
    Yes, the judging at Cup of Russia was unfair. There was a bias in favour of the Russian skaters. And we definitely saw that in dance. All the non-Russian dance teams took large hits in their marks. It happened to G&P as well, who dropped 10 points from their NHK score earlier in the month. You could particularly see it in the levels given for some of the elements like footwork sequences where the Russian dance teams received high levels, and all the non-Russian teams received low levels.

    But let's be honest about one thing - Canadian skaters do tend to get a bit of inflation of their own at Skate Canada. I'm Canadian myself and am willing to admit that. It's not as bad as it was at Cup of Russia, but there tends to be an edge given to Canadians in some events.

  7. #82
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    Quote Originally Posted by sky_fly20 View Post
    Gracie came an impressive 4th at the Olympic beating Julia, came close to medal at World scoring 70+ in SP
    though she missed on the podium, 2016 Worlds in Boston is hers to lose, 2014-2015 is perfect season to build her campaign
    2 solid GP wins can get her to GPF and can win her a Worlds medal if she does well next season
    She was almost clean with only one fall at the Olympics, and Julia skated remarkably worse and was right behind her. Look at World's, with Julia being able to do what Gracie's been yet unable to do: perform under pressure. Gracie should have had no pressure going into World's, the bronze was hers to lose, and she lost it. I don't have faith in her anymore, but I'm curious to see what kind of program she will bring this season. If she totally revamps her programs (and gets away from the princess, classical routines Frank gave her), she might have a chance. But she must perform when it counts.

  8. #83
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    Quote Originally Posted by flutzy13 View Post
    I think USFS will be out to prove they made the absolutely right decision and are probably not thrilled Mirai is not just quietly retiring. I expect that tech caller at Nationals to show her no mercy. And I say this as someone who enjoyed her immensely in Boston. I also don't expect Wagner to lay another egg at Nationals with the pressure of defending a title and an Olympic year now off her shoulders.
    Sadly you are right probably. It is unfortunate as Mirai is a much more talented skater than Ashley, but Ashley even today has the USFSA favor over Mirai in a big way.

    Mirai will have to pull out something remarkable to ever make another U.S world team with Gold, Wagner, and now even Edmunds firmly above her, and who knows who else coming up. 2012 is where Wagner solidifed herself firmly above Nagasu. 2013 is when Gold did. And now 2014 is probably where Edmunds has,

    It is funny how there used to be a day a clean Wagner couldnt dream of beating a clean Flatt, clean Nagasu, clean Czisny, or even clean Zhang. In fact it was that way a very long time. Wagner sure picked herself up at the right time where there was a void at the top of U.S ladies, and has given herself a protected status of sorts since.

  9. #84
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ryan O View Post
    Yes, the judging at Cup of Russia was unfair. There was a bias in favour of the Russian skaters. And we definitely saw that in dance. All the non-Russian dance teams took large hits in their marks. It happened to G&P as well, who dropped 10 points from their NHK score earlier in the month. You could particularly see it in the levels given for some of the elements like footwork sequences where the Russian dance teams received high levels, and all the non-Russian teams received low levels.

    But let's be honest about one thing - Canadian skaters do tend to get a bit of inflation of their own at Skate Canada. I'm Canadian myself and am willing to admit that. It's not as bad as it was at Cup of Russia, but there tends to be an edge given to Canadians in some events.
    There is some biased judging at Skate Canada you are right. Chan didnt deserve to win there in 2010 (over Oda) or 2011 (over Fernandez), but Chan is majorly held up all over the world so Skate Canada probably had minimal to do with this. Osmond didnt deserve to win there in 2012 at all. They tried to gift D&R the victory after a mistake filled skated with inflated PCS last year.

    That is also true of Skate America and NHK, two other grand prix events hosted by major skating powers.

    However the worst by far is the Rostelecom Cup. No other comes even close. In terms of bias I would rank them as:

    1. Rostelecom Cup



    2. NHK
    3. Skate Canada


    4. Skate America



    5. Trophee Bompard
    6. Cup of China

    really not much or any at the bottom two, which is good. They have to host the events at venues they are major skating powers as otherwise they wouldnt even get the audiences. Major skating countries are more likely to have homecourt bias though.

  10. #85
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    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    There is some biased judging at Skate Canada you are right. Chan didnt deserve to win there in 2010 (over Oda) or 2011 (over Fernandez), but Chan is majorly held up all over the world so Skate Canada probably had minimal to do with this. Osmond didnt deserve to win there in 2012 at all. They tried to gift D&R the victory after a mistake filled skated with inflated PCS last year.

    That is also true of Skate America and NHK, two other grand prix events hosted by major skating powers.

    However the worst by far is the Rostelecom Cup. No other comes even close. In terms of bias I would rank them as:

    1. Rostelecom Cup



    2. NHK
    3. Skate Canada


    4. Skate America



    5. Trophee Bompard
    6. Cup of China

    really not much or any at the bottom two, which is good. They have to host the events at venues they are major skating powers as otherwise they wouldnt even get the audiences. Major skating countries are more likely to have homecourt bias though.

    In my view it is the other way around:
    1. Skate Canada



    2. Skate America
    3. Rostelecom Cup


    4. NHK



    5. Trophee Bompard
    6. Cup of China

  11. #86
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    Interesting, I've heard the USFS is done with a skater, they try to give them Cup or Russia and or Cup of China. 2013 Cup of Russia had Mirai and Agnes had both so I wonder if there's any truth to that.

  12. #87
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ryan O View Post
    But let's be honest about one thing - Canadian skaters do tend to get a bit of inflation of their own at Skate Canada. I'm Canadian myself and am willing to admit that. It's not as bad as it was at Cup of Russia, but there tends to be an edge given to Canadians in some events.
    Oh I agree that national inflation happens whenever skaters are on home ice (including Canadians like Osmond in 2012, and Chan in 2011), but Cup of Russia was totally egregious.

    Also Chan in 2011 over Javier wasn't robbery. They scored essentially the same TES scores in the FS (Javier fell once, and Chan twice), and Chan being a much superior skater to Fernandez in 2011 gave him PCS to keep him close after the SP and to pull away in the FS. Fernandez was having his breakout season so he was a Denis Ten of sorts... if it was the improved Javier of 2013/2014, you'd expect his skating to have been better with higher PCS that would have given him the win. But in 2011, his skating while steadily improving couldn't hold a candle to Chan's (like the rest of the field, other than Takahashi).

  13. #88
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    Quote Originally Posted by skatefan17 View Post
    She was almost clean with only one fall at the Olympics, and Julia skated remarkably worse and was right behind her. Look at World's, with Julia being able to do what Gracie's been yet unable to do: perform under pressure. Gracie should have had no pressure going into World's, the bronze was hers to lose, and she lost it. I don't have faith in her anymore, but I'm curious to see what kind of program she will bring this season. If she totally revamps her programs (and gets away from the princess, classical routines Frank gave her), she might have a chance. But she must perform when it counts.
    That's a little harsh. This was only her 2nd competitive season. She underwhelmed on the GP and at Worlds, but she did have a fairly solid Nationals performance and helped the US secure the bronze in Sochi with a great team FS. She's certainly not the wonderchild people paint her out to be, but she doesn't suck either and has had a few season highlights.

  14. #89
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    Quote Originally Posted by hanca View Post
    In my view it is the other way around:
    1. Skate Canada
    2. Skate America
    3. Rostelecom Cup
    4. NHK
    5. Trophee Bompard
    6. Cup of China
    I'm sorry, but I don't think any Canadian or American singles skater has ever received personal best PCS with just 3-triples, and I don't think any American or Canadian pair/ice dancer has ever received a personal best score with a fall. Both happened at CoR.

    NHK with Akiko being held below Mao was pretty bad too.

    Gotta love TEB and Cup of China being the prettier sisters... although I'm sure if either country had well-rounded disciplines you'd see more politicking/PCS boosts for their skaters, too.

  15. #90
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    Quote Originally Posted by flutzy13 View Post
    Interesting, I've heard the USFS is done with a skater, they try to give them Cup or Russia and or Cup of China. 2013 Cup of Russia had Mirai and Agnes had both so I wonder if there's any truth to that.
    It doesn't work that way. USFS has no say where their skaters will be invited. Other than the top two seeds (who pick the events they want) and the host invitations to their own skaters, the whole GP process is done by the hosts drawing lots at each stage of selection. After the host picks, the top two seeds name their events, and the remaining two events go to the #3 seed. Then the hosts draw lots for each remaining category selection: seeds 4-6, worlds finishers 7-9, worlds finishers 10-12, top 24 on WR list (if not already selected), top 24 on SB list (if not already selected), etc.

    The host who draws first has first pick per category; the host who draws 6th gets whoever is left in that category. No way can USFS influence the outcome of the draw.

    It is possible that for CoR, the Russian Fed may pick skaters that won't offer much competition to their own stars. Since both Nagasu and Zawadzki haven't exactly been consistently good on the GP circuit they may fit that criteria.

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