Prediction for your favorite skaters next season
This is positive thread for realists
Note: I expect Mao and Dai either to retire or skip the season, so no prediction for them. Lipnitskaya and Hanyu are growing on me, but I'm not ready to call them my favorites.
Adelina Sotnikova: I predict a year with moderate success. Adelina will win her 1st Grand Prix competition and place 3rd at GPF. She'll win Europeans and Nationals. At the Worlds she'll place 3rd.
Kanako Murakami: I predict a little success this year. One bronze at a Grand Prix event and no GPF qualification. She'll win Nationals and place 2nd or 3rd and 4CC. At the Worlds she'll place betwenn 9th-6th.
Maxim Kovtun: I predict a transitional year with noticeable improvement in skating but little in results. Maxim will qualify for GPF and place between 6th and 4th. At the Nationals he'll be either 2nd or 1st. At the Europeans he'll place between 4th-2nd. At the Worlds he'll place between 8th and 5th.
Weaver & Poje: I predict them to win one of the grand prix final or worlds, but not both. I am not sure which it will be (really hope it is the latter but dont want to jinx them). They will be 2nd at the one they dont win. They will finally achieve the things that set their career below Crone & Poirier thus far- their first Canadian title, their first grand prix event win, and their first grand prix final medal.
Paul & Islam: They will be in an ongoing battle with Gilles & Poirier through the year, and I am not sure who will emerge on top of that in the end. They will win their first ever grand prix event medal (likely a bronze somewhere). They will make the world team again, and place higher than they did this year.
Asada: not really sure. She might take the year off, although I am fairly certain she will return to competing at some point. If she does compete she will win a medal of some color at worlds, maybe the gold or maybe not.
Kostner: sadly will likely retire.
Volosozhar & Trankov: will return in dominant fashion and win worlds. Will have 1 random loss at some point in the year due to a bad skate, and it might not even be to Stolbova & Klimov.
Shibutanis: this is more a wish than something I would bet money on, but here it goes anyway. I hope Scali takes them over and gives them a whole new look (Marina doesnt give a darn about them so she might as well let her new apprentice take over the reigns for them) and they will seriously challenge Chock & Bates for U.S number 1 and maybe even be one of the teams in contention for the bronze at the grand prix final and worlds (not neccessarily getting it though).
Fernandez: Will have a great season and seriously challenge Hanyu for the world title (maybe getting it, maybe not).
Now that Hanyu has won both the Olympics and Worlds, I hope he can pull back a bit and work on refining his style. He's still a bit coltish, as anyone would be at his age. There's so much more he can do; as amazing as he already is, he's just getting started.
As for Iulia, I can see her headed straight up. She has such a compelling personality and such vast talent.
I suspect you're right about Dai and Mao, that at the very least they won't compete this season. I hope we're both wrong, of course!
I am surprised there is even any talk of Dai potentially continuing. I must have missed something, but I was under the impression that was even a consideration for him at this point. Anyway I love him but dont want to see him continue. He is past his prime, and wont be able to achieve anything near his past results. Even in his prime he was robbed right and left of major titles or higher placements- 2006 Olympics, 2010 Olympics, 2011 grand prix final, 2012 worlds, so what is going to happen now no longer legitimately up with the others technically.
I don't think there is talk of Dai's continuing. It's just extreme wishful thinking on the part of fans such as myself, who know that we'll not see the likes of him again for a long time.
Originally Posted by pangtongfan
Wagner will pull an "Ando", having a strong season at a post medium Olympic year
Fernandez will be Great in the GP, But will finish an annoying 2nd at the GPF at home,
And lose his European title to Kovtun, Only to find himself as the World champion soon after
Lipnitskaya will have a medium season, Another World medal, Not Gold, The season after will be her new rise.
I predict Jason Brown will perfect his quad and land 1 in his SP and 2 in his LP and blow everyone else out of the water at Nationals. At Worlds the fact that he skates clean will put him somewhere in the top 3.
I predict Gracie Gold will laugh in the face of her detractors and win Nationals again.
I predict Kovtun will do well at his Nationals, win Europeans, and choke at Worlds.
I predict Yulia L will not be as successful as she was this year.
I predict we'll never hear from Sotnikova again.
I predict Patrick Chan will make a come back and will finally have a genuine figure skating coach again.
Beyond that...........I also predict there will be a new crew of unknowns for us to slice and dice on this board.
You beat me to pretty much all of my picks!
Originally Posted by pangtongfan
I must say though that I like your voicing support for the ShibSibs. They've got so much potential, they just need to be packaged correctly to stand out.
I tried to make a prediction about Hanyu, my favorite skater, but it is difficult.
He will have, yet again, 2 crazily ambitious programs and so will struggle with them at the beginning of the season.
Machida will continue to surprise everyone by being consistent with his programs and will have better control over his nerves, but will not make his jump layout any harder than it was this season. He will continue to expand his artistry.
Fernandez will win the GPF at home! -This is my greatest hope.
Didn't you say on another dance thread that you didn't have a preference between these 2 teams? Or are P&I your favourites more so than G&P?
Originally Posted by pangtongfan
Anyway, I think there will be opportunities for a number of skaters to win their first GP medal next year, if all the expected retirements (V&M, D&W, etc.) happen as expected. This is the case in not only dance of course, but all the other disciplines as well. Obviously if a bunch of skaters are retiring, it's obvious that it will give the next tier the opportunity to move up.
I am not a fan of Gilles & Poirier. I was never a fan of Paul Poirier in fact although since he is Canadian I am happy when any Canadian does well (even Chan, provided he doesnt do it in humiliating fashion for the sport). I am a big fan of Paul & Islam. If I said I liked both teams equally that must have been the night last week we were celebrating a friends birthday and I briefly went online after drinking a bit too much, lol!
Well that makes sense, because I do detect a pro-P&I slant to your predictions, just as I guess you feel I'm slanted towards G&P. Which is true in the sense that I prefer the skating style and personalities of G&P and want them to do well. But I'm too old to be a teenage fanboy who is going to go around screaming that they will be the next V&M or the next World Champions. I don't think they will be. I've followed Paul's skating since he was with Vanessa, and have come to like Piper as well. They have the potential to keep moving up the standings, and maybe sneak onto the World podium in a few years, but I have no idea whether they will be Top 5 or get as high as Top 3. But the fact that they did well at Worlds indicates it might be possible.
I tend to be cautious about making predictions, so in the pre-Worlds threads I didn't actually make any predictions about placement for the Canadian dance teams other than saying W&P might make the podium with V&M and D&W absent, and that we'd find it interesting to see how G&P and P&I placed. I wasn't sure G&P would make Top 10. As it turned out, all 3 Canadian dance teams finished higher than expected.
I think G&P and P&I could very well end up staying close together, although it might vary domestically vs. internationally. Internationally I would argue based on the results that G&P appear to have the edge, but that could always change.
Well considering P&I have not even been able to skate hardly any grand prix events the last couple years, and get super early draws due to their low world ranking in their debut world events, it would be a miracle for G&P to find a way to not place higher at worlds. P&I making top 10 was in fact a far more unlikely feat than G&P`s top 8, although both were great results for both teams, and better than expected for either. My prediction that I could see P&I passing G&P for the first time next season (as I already explained I dont think they really passed them solidly, even on a temporary basis, when they beat them for the first time at Canadians even if it robbed G&P of their biggest and ultimate goal which went to P&I instead) was not based on preference though, but a feeling I have. I far prefer M-T&M to D&R for instance, and yet I do not predict M-T&M to overtake D&R next year, or neccessarily ever, as much as I would badly like to see that happen. Heck I far prefer Hubbel & Donohue to Davis & White and well...... (not that I would ever think of objectively saying I think H&D are better btw, given the nature of this forum I guess I always have to clarify something like that).
1. In terms of the results at Nationals, it's hard to know whether P&I would have beaten G&P if the latter had not missed months of training because of the serious ankle injury. That's one of those things we'll never know, as is often the case in skating. But certainly G&P were hurt by having been off the ice from circa May-September, and missed the High Performance Camp and the chance to get feedback from judges.
2. G&P did skate in a later group at Worlds than P&I, and I think that may have helped, but G&P came into Worlds with a couple of disadvantages of their own. They had fallen off the Canadian podium and did not get the exposure of being at the Olympics. So there was a risk that the judges could have decided to permanently elevate P&I as the new #2 Canadian dance team behind W&P, and decide G&P were a team on the decline and dump them.
3. I myself was also wondering if the numbers between G&P and P&I would have been closer if P&I had skated in a later group. But then I looked at the skate order again, as well as the marks for the FD. I hadn't looked at the full protocol matrix so I printed it up from the ISU site and looked at it with my tea this morning. I noticed that G&P did well against teams that skated in their own group and moved up 3 spots in the FD. They moved ahead of Coomes & Buckland and Sinitsina & Z. They even came within less than a point of The Shibutanis. (95.02 for The Shibs vs. 94.44 for G&P). So that indicates there was something about G&P's FD that the judges really liked in comparison with the other dance teams in G&P's s group.
I'm bad at predictions, but I have a strong feeling that Hanyu will win the worlds again while the 4cc gold will continue to elude him
ETA: Newbiespectator, I hope you're right about Machida & Fernandez!