Prediction for your favorite skaters next season | Page 8 | Golden Skate

Prediction for your favorite skaters next season

nimi

Medalist
Joined
Apr 7, 2014
Kovtun will not win the GPF for sure, Javier will have a huge boost in Barcelona
Agree about Kovtun and GPF. Would like to see Javi winning on home ice, but he'd better outjump Yuzuru &co.
I just can't see the SPANISH federation being a big player with a lot of influence over the scoring, if that is what "huge boost" implies.
 

BusyMom

Medalist
Joined
Jan 10, 2014
Agree about Kovtun and GPF. Would like to see Javi winning on home ice, but he'd better outjump Yuzuru &co.
I just can't see the SPANISH federation being a big player with a lot of influence over the scoring, if that is what "huge boost" implies.
Love to see Javier finally make the name for himself in front of home crowd too. Every time I mention Javier to Spanish, they though I referring to Javier Hernandez (Mexican Man. United striker). That was sad and very annoying.
 

CanadianSkaterGuy

Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 25, 2013
Kovtun is light years behind the current top 3 in ability and Dennis Ten and Kozuka when they are "on" will easily beat him too (although who knows if Kozuka will ever be on again). Chan if he returns will be easily beating Kovtun for atleast another year or two. I definitely dont see Kovtun on the world podium barring some massive improvements over the summer, or a very messy event at worlds. He was 4th at worlds, but the top 3 were in their own event, another league from everyone else.

I wonder what you would have said about Denis Ten before he won silver at Worlds and bronze in Sochi. Sometimes a skater gets it together at the right time. And as I said, Kovtun could clear 95 points with two quads (one a quad-triple), and he could also clear 170 in his FS (which he would have done at Worlds had he executed the 4S). That is a score of about 265 points if he skates as well as he can. Which at this particular Worlds wasn't enough for a medal (nor does ot guarantee a World/GPF medal) but it's still a very competitive score that would arguably be a medal threat (which is what I said he could be, and never said that would without a doubt be the case).
 

pangtongfan

Match Penalty
Joined
Jun 16, 2010
Regarding Kovtun and next season, there are more to consider than the top 3 from worlds as well. Ten from the 2013 worlds or even 2014 Olympics LP is a much higher level than I have ever seen Kovtun skate at, and if he skates like that Kovtun wont be close to beating him. Ten is extremely inconsistent, but Kovtun is very inconsistent as well. Worlds was a fairly rare good competition in a depleted post Olympics field. While I dont think Chan will be back next season anyway, there are some who think otherwise, and he would be easily beating Kovtun at this point in time. Kozuka did still a comeback into top form, and if Reynolds can get over his skate problems he could make a come back too. Both of those at their best are also better than Kovtun, some would question Reynolds but his TES would be too much for Kovtun probably if in top form.

Fernandez and Machida are both pretty consistent skaters and not prone to bombing often. Making mistakes yes, blowing up, no. Fernandez had a very poor season for his standards this year due to injury, and was clearly not himself at all until Europeans.
 

pangtongfan

Match Penalty
Joined
Jun 16, 2010
I wonder what you would have said about Denis Ten before he won silver at Worlds and bronze in Sochi. Sometimes a skater gets it together at the right time.

Well nobody should hope for competitions of the quality of the 2013 worlds and 2014 Olympics to happen again. Like I said more than once I am hopeful the all time dark age (2009-2014 Olympics) of mens skating is now officialy over with the fairly good competition at the 2014 worlds, and am excited to see the men hopefully produce like that again in a more full rather than partial field.

Nobody was predicting Ten's results at those events, although I am sure you will try and claim you called them all along, lol! IMO Ten at his best is a far better skater than Kovtun though. If they both skated well, pretty much at the same level in jumps, but Ten has much better basics, better line, nicer posture and carriage, better spins and footwork, better choreography. It is just a shame he doesnt skate at that level more often, but if he does and the scoring is far (given that Ten is the one royally screwed out of the 2013 world title no sure thing with him) Ten should easily place better than even a good Kovtun. Until he improves more, which given his youth, could always happen of course.
 

Duality

On the Ice
Joined
Jan 25, 2014
I hope that both Voronov and Menshov will have a good next season.

I guess that both of them will get medals at European Championship again (at least I hope so).

My dream is to see them both at Worlds.
 

pangtongfan

Match Penalty
Joined
Jun 16, 2010
I wonder what you would have said about Denis Ten before he won silver at Worlds and bronze in Sochi. Sometimes a skater gets it together at the right time. And as I said, Kovtun could clear 95 points with two quads (one a quad-triple), and he could also clear 170 in his FS (which he would have done at Worlds had he executed the 4S). That is a score of about 265 points if he skates as well as he can. Which at this particular Worlds wasn't enough for a medal (nor does ot guarantee a World/GPF medal) but it's still a very competitive score that would arguably be a medal threat (which is what I said he could be, and never said that would without a doubt be the case).

Also it seems you are insistent that Chan is coming back next season, given that you accused all of those who believe he wont as automatically being a blind and bitter hater in the Chan thread. So with that in mind from your perspective (even though I dont think Chan will be back next year, and contrary to your claim it has nothing to do with my personal like/dislike of Chan) we now have Kovtun needing to beat atleast 2 out of Hanyu, Chan, Fernandez, and Machida to medal at worlds next year, a monumental task to put it mildly. It is also silly to think only those are threats to him or possible barriers to him winning a world or even grand prix final medal. Coming 4th at a worlds missing the Olympic bronze medalist (the one who we know is for sure returning), and 3 of the top 6 finishers from the Games does not automatically make him part of the big 4 of mens skating or something. Those are just the only 4 skaters he has a very tiny chance at most of beating right now. This is a very inconsistent skater who finished only 5th at Europeans this year, and no that was not his only bad event recently as well. All of Han, Kozuka, Reynolds, Ten, Brezina, Aaron, Abbott, Amodio, Brown, and yes even Voronov and Menshov who both beat him at Europeans this past year and Russian Nationals the year before that have to be counted as threats to him as well.

Which also brings to the problem with your other suggestion. Why assume a very inconsistent skater would do absolutely everything he could in his current program/within his current ability, something he has never done in fact even in his better competitions, and assume everyone else will do as badly as the 2013 worlds and 2014 Olympics when Kovtun is more inconsistent than the majority of those others.
 

aschiutza

On the Ice
Joined
Jan 23, 2004
Kovtun is still at the age when big improvements can be done from a year to the other, so, if he stays injury free, he might close the gap to the top.
 

CanadianSkaterGuy

Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 25, 2013
I don't accuse anyone who says Chan isn't coming back next year as being a hater. I think those who undermine him if he comes back by continually parroting how his skating sucks to be a hater. Personally, I think there's a considerable likelihood that he won't be coming back next year, so I have no idea where you're getting that spiel from. Although I suppose it's from the same place where you pull all your thoughts. :sarcasm:
 

CanadianSkaterGuy

Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 25, 2013
Kovtun is still at the age when big improvements can be done from a year to the other, so, if he stays injury free, he might close the gap to the top.

I agree. By no means am I saying he's at the level of Fernandez and Hanyu, but with his ambitious technical content in just his second season, and presumable improvement over the summer, I think he will be more of a spoiler than people are anticipating.

Obviously if Chan comes back, Kovtun is bumped down a spot, and the top 2 spots will be monopolized by Chanyu, but I think with 3 quads, he can make Machida and Fernandez sweat a little bit.
 

ovaskater

Rinkside
Joined
Mar 28, 2014
Pairs Predictions

I'm hoping US pairs Alexa Scimeca/ Chris Knierim place on the podium at nats. I think they'll either grow extensively or continue to have the issues they're currently having with injuries.

I feel like Shnapir/Castelli will do well and possibly have a slightly more consistent quad sal throw. They'll continue to dominate US pairs. Possible 3rd place at smaller events?

Extremely Hopeful Predictions(they won't come true)
Preface: Jason and Gracie have posted videos of side by side 3 lutzes and Jason has learned throw jumps.
They team up as a pair team and make it to the Nats podium in their debut year.
 

WeakAnkles

Record Breaker
Joined
Aug 1, 2011
Pairs Predictions

Extremely Hopeful Predictions(they won't come true)
Preface: Jason and Gracie have posted videos of side by side 3 lutzes and Jason has learned throw jumps.
They team up as a pair team and make it to the Nats podium in their debut year.

Oh but wouldn't that be marvelous? Of course, Gracie would have to learn how to throw Jason, but still, absolutely marvelous!

;)
 

karne

in Emergency Backup Mode
Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 1, 2013
Country
Australia
although he must have a very thick skin after the flak he gets for 2013 Worlds.

Flak? You must be kidding me. What flak? He was pampered and coddled and promoted, and it was chalked down to experience by his own fed. He didn't get abuse and vitriol from them, like Gachinski did. Kovtun is the golden wonderbrat and can do no wrong in the eyes of the fed.
 

flutzy13

On the Ice
Joined
Nov 12, 2012
Pairs Predictions

I'm hoping US pairs Alexa Scimeca/ Chris Knierim place on the podium at nats. I think they'll either grow extensively or continue to have the issues they're currently having with injuries.

I feel like Shnapir/Castelli will do well and possibly have a slightly more consistent quad sal throw. They'll continue to dominate US pairs. Possible 3rd place at smaller events?

Extremely Hopeful Predictions(they won't come true)
Preface: Jason and Gracie have posted videos of side by side 3 lutzes and Jason has learned throw jumps.
They team up as a pair team and make it to the Nats podium in their debut year.

I think Chris and Alexa will end up being sort of a one hit wonder who had a solid first season together in the most depleted US Nationals pairs field maybe ever. With Z/B, K/O and D/F on upward trajectories and C/S having blown way past them this season and thus having #1 status with USFS, they'll have to be on their A game to make a World team again. His injury was only part of their bad season-- she also made nervy mistakes and often- on the GP, at Nats, at 4CC. It was like once the pressure and spotlight was on (and even when it was off at 4CC), they couldn't deliver. I was also underwhelmed with them live at Nats- yes the twist is amazing and yes they're pretty on the ice but they skate slooooooow and their programs were uninspired and empty. It was easy to see live why their FS was 10-12 points behind the top 3 even with mistakes from D/C (who I loathe) and C/S. If they stay training where they are, I don't see it happening for them.

I actually think the world team for 2015 will once again be Marissa/Simon and Felicia/Nate. I think Denney/Frazier and Kayne/O'Shea will challenge them in years to come but not next year. Although I could see K/O surging sooner than D/F.
 

CanadianSkaterGuy

Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 25, 2013
Flak? You must be kidding me. What flak? He was pampered and coddled and promoted, and it was chalked down to experience by his own fed. He didn't get abuse and vitriol from them, like Gachinski did. Kovtun is the golden wonderbrat and can do no wrong in the eyes of the fed.

Uh he's gotten loads of criticism for failing to get 2 spots in Sochi. Notably from Plushenko who was frustrated that a loss at Nationals and only one Russian spot compromised his chance of going to Sochi.

People ridicule Kovtun for placing 17th (actually 15th essentially) as a junior skater thrown into his second senior competition, the first being Euros. I agree Kovtun is a brat, but as a skater he's been accelerated and the expectations on him were too great. He jumps from 17th to 4th at Worlds and people are still "meh" about him and refer indefinitely to the year he was sent to Worlds instead of Voronov/Mwnshov and failed to deliver when the Russian fed made that final decision. And it's not like they would have done better and secured two spots with the seasons they'd been having. But of course it ends up being Kovtun's cross to bear.

Oh well, as much as people criticize him for that Worlds failure, the experience really helped him and I don't think his GP season and Russian nationals and Worlds would have been as successful if not for being accelerated from the junior ranks mid-season last year. I mean at the end of the day, Kovtun is a strong competitor for Russia. I hope his not making the Sochi team or World podium has humbled him a bit from his Nationals win and he can mature both skating-wise and personality-wise for next season.
 

Jammers

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 4, 2010
Country
United-States
I think Chris and Alexa will end up being sort of a one hit wonder who had a solid first season together in the most depleted US Nationals pairs field maybe ever. With Z/B, K/O and D/F on upward trajectories and C/S having blown way past them this season and thus having #1 status with USFS, they'll have to be on their A game to make a World team again. His injury was only part of their bad season-- she also made nervy mistakes and often- on the GP, at Nats, at 4CC. It was like once the pressure and spotlight was on (and even when it was off at 4CC), they couldn't deliver. I was also underwhelmed with them live at Nats- yes the twist is amazing and yes they're pretty on the ice but they skate slooooooow and their programs were uninspired and empty. It was easy to see live why their FS was 10-12 points behind the top 3 even with mistakes from D/C (who I loathe) and C/S. If they stay training where they are, I don't see it happening for them.

I actually think the world team for 2015 will once again be Marissa/Simon and Felicia/Nate. I think Denney/Frazier and Kayne/O'Shea will challenge them in years to come but not next year. Although I could see K/O surging sooner than D/F.

Well US Pairs won't be moving up if those are the 2 teams at Worlds again next year. C/S won't move up much and Z/B have tiny elements compared to the top teams and will be lucky to ever make the top 10 at Worlds. I hope K/S get it together and K/O i think have much more potential then a team like Z/B.
 

chuckm

Record Breaker
Joined
Aug 31, 2003
Country
United-States
The problem with Zhang/Bartholomay is that at least once or twice during the season, Nate will have a problem with an aborted lift, which is extremely costly. And it happened again at Worlds. The scores were so tightly packed after the SP that Z/B had a real chance to move up a couple of places with a clean FS. The Wendes, who were ahead of Z/B after the SP had basically bombed their FS, so the opportunity was there to gain on them. Z/B had scored 110 and change in Sochi--a similar clean performance could have boosted their final standing. Things were going well until the aborted lift, and then there was NO chance of a move up.

Every time Z/B take the ice from now on I will be gritting my teeth. I just hope for a huge improvement in Scimeca/Knierim and a different team at Worlds 2015.
 

pangtongfan

Match Penalty
Joined
Jun 16, 2010
I think Z&B are doing well getting the most out of themselves. He is a smaller guy and they dont have the bigger or exciting tricks, or the basic skating skills to go much further, but I am sure they will keep fighting and trying to make some more world teams. Whether they even try for 2018 or not, is harder to say.

I think a team like Scimeca/Knierim have way more potential.
 
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