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Thread: Which country will be the next to have a gold in history in each skating discipline

  1. #31
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    It will likely be Canada. I would expect a Canadian man to win the OGM before the US Pairs. There's something about US Pairs that isn't exactly packaged ideally. Perhaps the next best US/World pair is right around the corner, but I think Nguyen in 2022 could stand a shot at gold.

  2. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mafke View Post
    Technically Petrenko won gold as a member of the "unified team" under the flag of the IOC (since the USSR had dissolved by the beginning of the games)

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unified...inter_Olympics

    It's not clear at all if Ukraine will ever have a winter olympic team again, given Russia's territorial ambitions there.
    There is a lot going on in Ukraine right now (Yulia Tymoshenko is now back in the government, unelected people like Dmitro Yarosh hold high-ranking government positions, the new president will likely be worse than the old one, etc), and it's unfair to peg it ALL on Russia. Unfortunately, it's impossible to say who's really in the right in this case because of all of the media propaganda that Russia and USA are spewing out.

  3. #33
    Yulia and Ruslena team forever! Alba's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by CanadianSkaterGuy View Post
    It will likely be Canada. I would expect a Canadian man to win the OGM before the US Pairs. There's something about US Pairs that isn't exactly packaged ideally. Perhaps the next best US/World pair is right around the corner, but I think Nguyen in 2022 could stand a shot at gold.
    I expect Canada as well.


    Originally Posted by Risa
    I also found it interesting that Grishuk and Platov were both from the Ukraine but competed for Russia. I've never heard if they ever considered representing Ukraine but combine them with Baiul and Petrenko and it would seem the Ukraine is only half a pair away from an unofficial sweep.
    I think Evgeny is a russian origin from Odessa, if I'm not mistaken. Anyway, they were formed and trained mostly in Moscow, and had the best possible options in Russia, as far as coaching, training and other facilities is concerned. So it made sense to skate for Russia. I also think that the strong competition inside Russia help them a lot to become a strong couple.
    We don't know if they would have had the same results if they had stayed in Ukraine.

  4. #34
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    I think the Olympic Team Event probably reflects the countries' prospective domination in all disciplines. Russia-Canada-USA would be the main ones for many years to come because they have so many skaters in the top 10 in all disciplines.

    Japan has depth in ladies and men, but not in ice dancing and pairs.

    China lost a lot of momentum; at first it seemed that it was going to be a new era in 2006 and 2010, and all China needed to complete the ascent was to find a top ice dancing couple and man to have medalists in all disciplines. Chinese skaters we nowhere near the podium in Sochi at all. Li Zijun and Han Yan might medal one of these days but at the moment gold is a long shot. No ice dancing for China either; the Chinese ice dance team - what happened to them? They didn't qualify?

  5. #35
    Yulia and Ruslena team forever! Alba's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlackPack View Post
    No ice dancing for China either; the Chinese ice dance team - what happened to them? They didn't qualify?
    I think they were not there at all.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Alba View Post
    I think they were not there at all.
    I just checked. They were 23rd in Sochi.... I guess they were my bathroom break so I missed them

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    Yulia and Ruslena team forever! Alba's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlackPack View Post
    I just checked. They were 23rd in Sochi.... I guess they were my bathroom break so I missed them
    No I meant at Worlds.

  8. #38
    Sometimes bad skating happens to good people... LiamForeman's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    The U.S has not had a potential gold medal pair in a long time. Babilionia & Gardner were probably their best ever chance. They had to unfortunately WD from the 1980 Olympics with his injury. Even had they skated though the politics of skating would have made it hard to beat the legend Rodnina in her swan song event, and I am not sure if it was possible.
    This. I know it was really painful for Tai and Randy, but it might have been a blessing in disguise. Imagine Tai skating flawless programs and bringing the arena to its feet, and then the stern and unmusical Rodnina winning the judges just because she's Rodnina. Fratianne couldn't handle her loss, and maybe Tai and Randy would have only bad feelings also if they went clean and lost due to obvious politics. I still do not understand Rodnina's appeal. Yes, she was tiny and skated fast, but there was no beauty, no grace, no feeling, it was all just like a robot. Slutskaya had more grace than Rodnina, which is appalling.

    Given this list, I can only imagine Canada making this club. They've come SO CLOSE so many times. It's bound to happen in the next twenty years. American pairs? They change partners more often than their underwear, so I don't imagine US ever getting Oly gold in pairs.

  9. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by anyanka View Post
    Good catch! And by "half a pair away from an unofficial sweep" I presume you mentioned Volosozhar, right?
    Yes, my half a pair was referring to Volosozhar, Ukraine just needs a male pair skater now

  10. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by LiamForeman View Post
    Given this list, I can only imagine Canada making this club. They've come SO CLOSE so many times. It's bound to happen in the next twenty years. American pairs? They change partners more often than their underwear, so I don't imagine US ever getting Oly gold in pairs.
    You're so right re: American pairs. These days none of them stick together long enough to reach that altered state where two people truly do "skate as one," as Dick Button always described it. IIRC, the last US pair on the podium @ the Olys was Watson/Oppegard in 1988. So long...

    Love the history in this thread, though!

  11. #41
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    Quote Originally Posted by skatedreamer View Post
    You're so right re: American pairs. These days none of them stick together long enough to reach that altered state where two people truly do "skate as one," as Dick Button always described it. IIRC, the last US pair on the podium @ the Olys was Watson/Oppegard in 1988. So long...

    Love the history in this thread, though!
    While it's certainly been a long time since US pairs have cracked or neared the podium, I think the US pairs issue is more complex than pairs simply not staying together. Castelli and Shnapir, the top US pair, have been together almost eight years. Evora and Baldwin were together a decade before she retired. That's hardly flaky and it's unfair to lump all the recent US pairs in with the Denny/Coughlin and Rockne drama. C&S may never win olympic gold but it won't be because they threw in the towel on the partnership. Also sometimes pair break ups can be a good thing. See Meno & Sand and also Scimeca & Knierim- she went from nowhere with her prior partner to top 10 at Worlds in 1 season

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    Quote Originally Posted by flutzy13 View Post
    While it's certainly been a long time since US pairs have cracked or neared the podium, I think the US pairs issue is more complex than pairs simply not staying together. Castelli and Shnapir, the top US pair, have been together almost eight years. Evora and Baldwin were together a decade before she retired. That's hardly flaky and it's unfair to lump all the recent US pairs in with the Denny/Coughlin and Rockne drama. C&S may never win olympic gold but it won't be because they threw in the towel on the partnership. Also sometimes pair break ups can be a good thing. See Meno & Sand and also Scimeca & Knierim- she went from nowhere with her prior partner to top 10 at Worlds in 1 season
    Point taken. Guess my frustration got the better of me -- I love pairs and would love to see a US pair on the Olys podium again. What are your thoughts re: a possible solution?

  13. #43
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    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    I dont think Nguyen's chances of gold in 2018 are good at all. Maybe 15% at best, and that might be generous. Hanyu right is the early favorite for 2018, and Fernandez should be around and still strong by then. Who knows who else of the current skaters could be an OGM by then, but there could be 1 or 2 others. Then amongst his age peers someone like Nathan Chen probably has as much or more chance of winning the 2018 OGM as he does, and there are others he doesnt dominate as things are now.

    Still there probably is a chance, and that aleady puts Canada ahead of the others.
    Yeah, there's not that much chance of Nguyen winning in 2018, but there's more chance of that than the other scenarios mentioned. Maybe Nguyen's time will actually be 2022.

  14. #44
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    Quote Originally Posted by dorispulaski View Post
    I would have thought Canada would have a men's gold by now, with so many wonderful candidates for that first medal over the years-can Canada learn not to put so much pressure on their next gold medal worthy man? If so, they will be the next.


    So many countries are lacking the pairs or dance medal, but I wonder whether the existence of the team medal will change the entire landscape in pairs and dance. Countries that never seemed to have a pairs or dance program will now have one. The extra competition will make it harder for all the countries, but ultimately will promote the rise of new stars, too. In pairs or dance, it seems to require a much larger national support system than singles for a winning team to arise, favoring richer federations.

    Already Japan has a pair or two when previously it had none at all, and has one or two more senior dancers than before. US pairs routinely break up before they reach top levels, but perhaps that will happen less often. Not only is there a chance for a team medal for a middle level team, the countries/federations may actually give more support to teams than they have in the past because they want a shot at a team medal.

    If Canada doesn't manage the feat next, Japan might get all its 2 missing medals first. There is a lot of support and a lot of great skaters there. It took Igor Shpilband what, about 20 years, to build a dance program that could yield a first gold medal, so I would guess it is 15 or twenty years away. The same kind of timeline, I would think, to develop a good pairs program (cf. Yao Bin). OTOH, a phenomenal single skater could arise any time. So if not Canada, then 16 years and the answer is Japan.
    You could be on to something about Japan, although I'm not sure about Japanese dance.

  15. #45
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    Quote Originally Posted by skatedreamer View Post
    Point taken. Guess my frustration got the better of me -- I love pairs and would love to see a US pair on the Olys podium again. What are your thoughts re: a possible solution?
    Thanks. I love US pairs too and I feel your frustration. I don't think the frequent splits haven't helped- I just don't think that's the whole issue.

    I see 2 big issues. 1. I'm not sure we have the coaches who are going to get our pairs back into the medal conversation. I so respect what coaches like Bobby Martin and Jim Peterson are doing and I love some of their teams. But I think maybe US pairs could be helped by importing some coaches who have had success and having them work with younger teams and build from the ground up. Sort of like what we had in dance with Igor and Marina coming and working with teams like D/W and the Shibs from juniors up. Dance was once the token discipline where we couldn't medal- now its pairs. And that was never the case until about a decade ago even if we didn't quite podium at Olympics. Until 2006, there was always the chance the the US could sneak in and we did sometimes at Worlds. 2. I think there's a mentality in the US that pairs is for failed singles skaters. TSL touched on this and I think its an astute point. That doesn't exist as much in other countries. Certainly not Russia or China. How we fix this and get more talented skaters into pairs youngerI have no idea.

    Since those are more long-term, systemic issues, in the short term, I think we need really one breakout pair to get the US back at the table (maybe not at the head of the table but in the conversation) the way we were in the Meno/Sand and Kyoko Ina days. We have more depth than say Canada but the top 4-5 pairs are sort of similarly situated. The success of teams like MT/M and especially D/R (who are successful despite all the mismatch and bad line complaints) gives me eternal hope that one of our pairs will break into the upper echelon if we can just have a team be consistent enough to be the clear US # 1 and get some real international momentum building. I know D&C were very consistent even though I didn't particularly like them but I think his injury prevented them from building internationally on their first year momentum and then when they came back, we had USFS kind of unsure as to whether C/S or D/C was their #1 and putting them head to head at SA (plus S/K had built some momentum with their Worlds finish). And with the US having B lister status in pairs internationally, the federation half heartedly backing 2-3 teams in the run up to Sochi did no one team any major favors internationally in terms of building momentum. Then you had the one team who had been fairly consistent/successful on the GP missing the Olympics, the team who had an uneven fall season running away with the SP at Nationals by a LOT and a total surprise in Z/B. It was exciting but it showed how all over the place US pairs is- if we barely knew who our top team was all season, international judges definitely didn't. If we can seriously get behind one team who performs relatively consistently internationally and domestically, for more than 1 season, I think we'll at least get back into the conversation the way we were in the Meno and Ina eras. With a US Worlds looming, I hope it happens. Depth and similar international finishes among 3-5 teams makes for an exciting Nationals but we need one team to solidly and firmly distinguish themselves from the pack to send the message that US pairs is not second tier.

    C/S seemed to be on that road in Sochi and I think they would have been rewarded with very good scores at Worlds and at least 7th or 8th place, setting themselves up really well for next season, but they didn't burst through that door. I don't think it's closed to them (and I think they'll have an easier climb with 4 respectable Olympic skates in their pocket than say S/K or K/O at this point who have less credibility and more to prove) however assuming they come back but they'll have to really show up at the GP and build momentum, not place 5th and 6th and then wake up and win at Nationals. Next season will be interesting all around, I'm excited to see who gets what GPs.

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