Which country will be the next to have a gold in history in each skating discipline | Page 3 | Golden Skate

Which country will be the next to have a gold in history in each skating discipline

flutzy13

On the Ice
Joined
Nov 12, 2012
You're so right re: American pairs. These days none of them stick together long enough to reach that altered state where two people truly do "skate as one," as Dick Button always described it. IIRC, the last US pair on the podium @ the Olys was Watson/Oppegard in 1988. So long...

Love the history in this thread, though!

While it's certainly been a long time since US pairs have cracked or neared the podium, I think the US pairs issue is more complex than pairs simply not staying together. Castelli and Shnapir, the top US pair, have been together almost eight years. Evora and Baldwin were together a decade before she retired. That's hardly flaky and it's unfair to lump all the recent US pairs in with the Denny/Coughlin and Rockne drama. C&S may never win olympic gold but it won't be because they threw in the towel on the partnership. Also sometimes pair break ups can be a good thing. See Meno & Sand and also Scimeca & Knierim- she went from nowhere with her prior partner to top 10 at Worlds in 1 season
 

skatedreamer

Medalist
Joined
Feb 18, 2014
Country
United-States
While it's certainly been a long time since US pairs have cracked or neared the podium, I think the US pairs issue is more complex than pairs simply not staying together. Castelli and Shnapir, the top US pair, have been together almost eight years. Evora and Baldwin were together a decade before she retired. That's hardly flaky and it's unfair to lump all the recent US pairs in with the Denny/Coughlin and Rockne drama. C&S may never win olympic gold but it won't be because they threw in the towel on the partnership. Also sometimes pair break ups can be a good thing. See Meno & Sand and also Scimeca & Knierim- she went from nowhere with her prior partner to top 10 at Worlds in 1 season

Point taken. Guess my frustration got the better of me -- I love pairs and would love to see a US pair on the Olys podium again. What are your thoughts re: a possible solution?
 

blue_idealist

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 25, 2006
I dont think Nguyen's chances of gold in 2018 are good at all. Maybe 15% at best, and that might be generous. Hanyu right is the early favorite for 2018, and Fernandez should be around and still strong by then. Who knows who else of the current skaters could be an OGM by then, but there could be 1 or 2 others. Then amongst his age peers someone like Nathan Chen probably has as much or more chance of winning the 2018 OGM as he does, and there are others he doesnt dominate as things are now.

Still there probably is a chance, and that aleady puts Canada ahead of the others.

Yeah, there's not that much chance of Nguyen winning in 2018, but there's more chance of that than the other scenarios mentioned. Maybe Nguyen's time will actually be 2022.
 

blue_idealist

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 25, 2006
I would have thought Canada would have a men's gold by now, with so many wonderful candidates for that first medal over the years-can Canada learn not to put so much pressure on their next gold medal worthy man? If so, they will be the next.


So many countries are lacking the pairs or dance medal, but I wonder whether the existence of the team medal will change the entire landscape in pairs and dance. Countries that never seemed to have a pairs or dance program will now have one. The extra competition will make it harder for all the countries, but ultimately will promote the rise of new stars, too. In pairs or dance, it seems to require a much larger national support system than singles for a winning team to arise, favoring richer federations.

Already Japan has a pair or two when previously it had none at all, and has one or two more senior dancers than before. US pairs routinely break up before they reach top levels, but perhaps that will happen less often. Not only is there a chance for a team medal for a middle level team, the countries/federations may actually give more support to teams than they have in the past because they want a shot at a team medal.

If Canada doesn't manage the feat next, Japan might get all its 2 missing medals first. There is a lot of support and a lot of great skaters there. It took Igor Shpilband what, about 20 years, to build a dance program that could yield a first gold medal, so I would guess it is 15 or twenty years away. The same kind of timeline, I would think, to develop a good pairs program (cf. Yao Bin). OTOH, a phenomenal single skater could arise any time. So if not Canada, then 16 years and the answer is Japan.

You could be on to something about Japan, although I'm not sure about Japanese dance.
 

flutzy13

On the Ice
Joined
Nov 12, 2012
Point taken. Guess my frustration got the better of me -- I love pairs and would love to see a US pair on the Olys podium again. What are your thoughts re: a possible solution?

Thanks. I love US pairs too and I feel your frustration. I don't think the frequent splits haven't helped- I just don't think that's the whole issue.

I see 2 big issues. 1. I'm not sure we have the coaches who are going to get our pairs back into the medal conversation. I so respect what coaches like Bobby Martin and Jim Peterson are doing and I love some of their teams. But I think maybe US pairs could be helped by importing some coaches who have had success and having them work with younger teams and build from the ground up. Sort of like what we had in dance with Igor and Marina coming and working with teams like D/W and the Shibs from juniors up. Dance was once the token discipline where we couldn't medal- now its pairs. And that was never the case until about a decade ago even if we didn't quite podium at Olympics. Until 2006, there was always the chance the the US could sneak in and we did sometimes at Worlds. 2. I think there's a mentality in the US that pairs is for failed singles skaters. TSL touched on this and I think its an astute point. That doesn't exist as much in other countries. Certainly not Russia or China. How we fix this and get more talented skaters into pairs youngerI have no idea.

Since those are more long-term, systemic issues, in the short term, I think we need really one breakout pair to get the US back at the table (maybe not at the head of the table but in the conversation) the way we were in the Meno/Sand and Kyoko Ina days. We have more depth than say Canada but the top 4-5 pairs are sort of similarly situated. The success of teams like MT/M and especially D/R (who are successful despite all the mismatch and bad line complaints) gives me eternal hope that one of our pairs will break into the upper echelon if we can just have a team be consistent enough to be the clear US # 1 and get some real international momentum building. I know D&C were very consistent even though I didn't particularly like them but I think his injury prevented them from building internationally on their first year momentum and then when they came back, we had USFS kind of unsure as to whether C/S or D/C was their #1 and putting them head to head at SA (plus S/K had built some momentum with their Worlds finish). And with the US having B lister status in pairs internationally, the federation half heartedly backing 2-3 teams in the run up to Sochi did no one team any major favors internationally in terms of building momentum. Then you had the one team who had been fairly consistent/successful on the GP missing the Olympics, the team who had an uneven fall season running away with the SP at Nationals by a LOT and a total surprise in Z/B. It was exciting but it showed how all over the place US pairs is- if we barely knew who our top team was all season, international judges definitely didn't. If we can seriously get behind one team who performs relatively consistently internationally and domestically, for more than 1 season, I think we'll at least get back into the conversation the way we were in the Meno and Ina eras. With a US Worlds looming, I hope it happens. Depth and similar international finishes among 3-5 teams makes for an exciting Nationals but we need one team to solidly and firmly distinguish themselves from the pack to send the message that US pairs is not second tier.

C/S seemed to be on that road in Sochi and I think they would have been rewarded with very good scores at Worlds and at least 7th or 8th place, setting themselves up really well for next season, but they didn't burst through that door. I don't think it's closed to them (and I think they'll have an easier climb with 4 respectable Olympic skates in their pocket than say S/K or K/O at this point who have less credibility and more to prove) however assuming they come back but they'll have to really show up at the GP and build momentum, not place 5th and 6th and then wake up and win at Nationals. Next season will be interesting all around, I'm excited to see who gets what GPs.
 

CanadianSkaterGuy

Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 25, 2013
Yeah, there's not that much chance of Nguyen winning in 2018, but there's more chance of that than the other scenarios mentioned. Maybe Nguyen's time will actually be 2022.

Agreed. Nguyen could possibly get a top 6 in 2018, which would set himself up well for 2022. He's in good hands with Orser, who will ensure that he develops his skating skills and speed, as well as tailor his programs precisely to CoP.
 

anyanka

Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 8, 2011
Yeah, there's not that much chance of Nguyen winning in 2018, but there's more chance of that than the other scenarios mentioned. Maybe Nguyen's time will actually be 2022.

^ I was gonna say. He's only 15 now, he'll be 23 by 2022. The next quad will likely be led by Yuzu and the Japanese, Javi, Denis, Yan. Nguyen will be fine, he needs time to develop.
 

skatedreamer

Medalist
Joined
Feb 18, 2014
Country
United-States
I see 2 big issues. 1. I'm not sure we have the coaches who are going to get our pairs back into the medal conversation. I so respect what coaches like Bobby Martin and Jim Peterson are doing and I love some of their teams. But I think maybe US pairs could be helped by importing some coaches who have had success and having them work with younger teams and build from the ground up. Sort of like what we had in dance with Igor and Marina coming and working with teams like D/W and the Shibs from juniors up. Dance was once the token discipline where we couldn't medal- now its pairs. And that was never the case until about a decade ago even if we didn't quite podium at Olympics. Until 2006, there was always the chance the the US could sneak in and we did sometimes at Worlds. 2. I think there's a mentality in the US that pairs is for failed singles skaters. TSL touched on this and I think its an astute point. That doesn't exist as much in other countries. Certainly not Russia or China. How we fix this and get more talented skaters into pairs youngerI have no idea.

Lots to think about; thanks for the ideas! Importing coaches could help a lot -- I must confess I've had a recurring fantasy of Tamara Moskvina whipping a few US pairs into shape. :laugh: But seriously, I think the US could do with an infusion of Russian mentality into the pairs program. And it needs to start with the kids.

And yes, you're definitely onto something re: the "failed singles skaters" thing. It's unfortunate, b/c the pairs discipline is unique unto itself and so very beautiful at its best. Some of the challenges are the same but others are profoundly different. And you can't have a great pair w/o great singles skills!

It also occurred to me that the American mindset is essentially individualistic -- it's not that we don't value collaboration, but the primary focus is on the individual. We love our loners, I think. Hence our emphasis on singles. I love our great singles skaters but in not valuing pairs, I think we're missing out on something wonderful. Here's hoping that changes in the near future.
 

Sandpiper

Record Breaker
Joined
Apr 16, 2014
Well, if we're counting the team competition (and it continues being an Olympic event), I don't think anyone's gonna win over Russia anytime soon. Well, maybe Canada in 2018 if somebody bombs, and even then it'll be difficult considering Canada lacks pairs and ladies. Assuming Russia keeps it together, they'll end up winning all the disciplines again before anyone else even does so once. I mean, all they need is another ladies champion (easily done if Korea doesn't opt for revenge) and another team medal. They've got enough pairs/ice dance/men's champions to fill an ocean.

Logically, Canada should be the next one. Canada's men are way stronger than USA's pairs. But superstitiously, I really question whether we can ever win the men's category. Just doesn't seem to be in the cards. Orser got outskated in his home country, Stojko got gobbled by injury in Nagano, and Chan--infamous for winning for falls--stayed on his feet and lost to a guy who fell twice. It's like Kwan and that stupid Olympics gold--just can never quite reach it, despite always coming so close.
 
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