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Thread: Patrick Chan not Ruling Out Competing at Next Winter Olympics

  1. #46
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    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    Well very few skaters even compete at the Olympics at 27, let alone are contenders. The only recent ones I can think of are Irina Slutskaya in 2006, and Evgeny Plushenko in 2010, but for Plushenko especialy it was a failure in a sense (especialy in his own mind) as he lost to someone he would have beaten by about 30 points only 4 years earlier. 25 for singles skaters is usually about the limit for that. Of course it is anyones choice if they want to try. Fumie is still trying for god knows what at age 34 after all. Chan could try to compete at the Games at 27 if he wants, but I dont think it is very likely all things considered.
    Why on earth would you label Plushenko's return in 2010 a failure--let alone a bigger failure than Irina Slutskaya in 2006? Plush retired with a bunch of injuries, didn't compete for four years, and ran around in shows doing triple toe loops. He came back, won Cup of Russia, won Europeans, won Olympic silver and in the process became the only man since Grafstrom to win 3+ Olympic medals. IIRC, he was the only person in Vancouver to land quads in both programs and skate clean. The biggest change seems to be the way the judges (and rules) were scoring people: the quad being out of favour, the Olympics happening in North America, Plush seemingly just waltzing in back here for a second gold--all of which worked against Plushenko. The situation changed a lot more than his skating did. No, of course he wasn't as good as he was back in 2004. But compared to returning pros of Lillehammer--the precedent--he did remarkably well.

    Why would you expect the men's event to be well-skated anyway? It's always been a splatfest, with the person who survives winning (until people started winning with multiple falls, anyway). If the other medal contenders can't stay on their feet while old Plushenko can, well, that's what happened in 2002-06 too.

    Irina Slutskaya was the favourite going into 2006, an active competitor and often the champion. The IJS looked perfect for her, because of her jumping ability and flexibility in getting the spin levels. "Artistry" also got broken down into categories like "skating skills," which would probably kill her mark less than it did in the 6.0 days. Irina didn't skate well, and lost the gold medal, despite everything working in her favour. She also didn't already have an Olympic gold. The Olympics look like a far bigger disappointment for her than they did for Plush.

    Eeek, accidentally hijacked a Chan thread. Well, I predict silver for Chan in 2018! Following in the steps of Brian Orser and Elvis Stojko.

  2. #47
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    I predict no appearance for Chan in 2018. I think it is only 15% likely at most he competes. If he does though I predict a placement of around 5th to 7th (which is no shame for a 27 year old). If he did win the silver in 2018 it would be a heroic feat and pretty much the same as the joy of the elusive Oly gold for him, as I dont think anyone would be expecting a placement that high by then.

    Regarding Plushenko I probably did not word it right, but I meant that even his return showed how singles skaters are realistically nowhere near their peak at 27, especialy if/after taking some time off. A prime Plushenko would beat someone like Lysacek even with a broken leg, and yet skating cleanly he loses to a quadless Lysacek. In his case it is a good thing in his prime he was winning events by 30 points often, and that the many skaters far more talented than Lysacek in that field all messed up, so a medal was still possible. It probably wouldnt be for almost anyone else as far below their former best level as Plushenko at 27 was though.

    I guess Slutskaya in 2006 was more dissapointing as she came in as the favorite, which Plushenko really wasnt in 2010. However as an overall skater she is probably the only one at 27 I can think of who was still at or near her career peak. Butyrskaya maybe the other.

  3. #48
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    ^Hmm, maybe you're right about Chan. I think he shot himself in the foot by parading around his team medal (for which he skated one segment and came in third) like he's already Orser or Stojko. That, perhaps, will anger the Skating Gods, who will count the team medal as his second, cursed, Canadian silver, causing him to miss medals altogether in 2018. (This is a joke, Chan fans! Don't eat me--I taste bad.)

    To be honest, I predict a no-show in Pyeongchang too. I think Chan is just "inspired" by all the non-retirements this season. If he makes it to the next Olympics though, I'm a bit more optimistic about his chances than you are (we'll have to agree to disagree on the meaning of what Plushenko did in Vancouver).

  4. #49
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    Wasn't Plushenko sort-of-injured in 2010? I thought he was already partially bionic by that point. Chan has the advantage of having all his original bones and tendons still in place. I think he can challenge for a medal, maybe even gold, if he uses voodoo sabotage on a competitor or two.

  5. #50
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    Quote Originally Posted by sky_fly20 View Post
    before the Olympics
    You mean the Olympics where he score personal best PCS in the SP and had higher PCS in his FS than Hanyu's personal best PCS ever in the FS? Oh yeah, Chan's PCS is totally tanking, lol.

  6. #51
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    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    Everyone's PCS and scores in general goes up over time all the time (yet one of many things you seem clueless to given your attempts of comparing scores even 5 or 6 years apart sometimes). At some point soon they will have to a crackdown and make it alot harder again as now skaters are hitting constant +3s and 10s in PCS and there will be nowhere to go. D&W and V&M for instance have reached the point of nearly all perfect scores. In a relative sense his PCS are far closer to his competitors than they were even a year or two ago. That is what the previous posters were referring to.
    Yes, the field has gotten better but the previous poster made it seem like Chan isn't getting the PCS he's accustomed to because of one bad FS at the Olympics. His PCS continues to be deservedly higher than the rest of the field... but the PCS gap has closed not because he's getting worse but because his competitors are getting better, which is hardly something he has control over. His personal bests this past season at TEB and at the Olympics (PCS in the SP) reflect this fact that he's still artistically the top dog, even if Hanyu's improvement has closed the gap.

  7. #52
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    Quote Originally Posted by CarneAsada View Post
    Wasn't Plushenko sort-of-injured in 2010? I thought he was already partially bionic by that point. Chan has the advantage of having all his original bones and tendons still in place. I think he can challenge for a medal, maybe even gold, if he uses voodoo sabotage on a competitor or two.
    Plu is always struggling with some sort of injury (usually back). Although it seems however that he is especially injured in the competitions he happens to lose... Chan does have the advantage of being relatively healthy.

    I don't think he'll be as slated to win in 2018 but if he still stays healthy I wouldn't count him out of it. I mean it's stupid to count out a skater as finished barely 6 months after they achieve the world record. Give him a couple years of poor results and then maybe question his chances... But in his current situation he is still one of the best (and still the best if he manages to skate clean). The only factor that will probably affect his coming back is the progress of the rest of the field. Although when the current world champion wins with a fall over a skater who goes clean, perhaps a skater like Chan who is prone to errors still has a shot of coming out on top.

  8. #53
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    I think CSG we should stop talking - if There are many if. If Hanyu did not fall on quad sal in GPF then he would have WR for FS. If Hanyu would have go totally perfect his SP and FS then he could cross 300 points overall. If, if, if. There is too many if actually Just offtop notice

    Actually I would like him to be back next season. Then it would be more interesting with Hanyu, Fernandez and Chan battles.

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